XAO Banter Thread

[Porper]

Intraday chart for the ASX looks pretty sickly, especially compared to timezone peers. Smells like trouble ahead.

EDIT:

oops sorry forgot the chart. I read it as markdown, followed by a consolidation, with the higher probability being towards continuation than reversal:
View attachment 64149

It's the banks that are suffering. They are at critical junctures in regard to the larger degree patterns. If those larger bullish patterns break down then all is not going to be good...to say the least.

 

[shouldaindex]

2% lead from U.S, Shanghai/Hang Seng closed, and we had a 120 point intraday swing down. If not now, when?

It seems the domestic figures of GDP and retail sales were the driving force today in the absence of other markets.

 

[Wysiwyg]

2% lead from U.S, Shanghai/Hang Seng closed, and we had a 120 point intraday swing down. If not now, when?

It seems the domestic figures of GDP and retail sales were the driving force today in the absence of other markets.

Yes very disappointed today. Buy traders are getting chopped up sick like. Anyone still holding Index from the 24 - 25th last month lows?

 

[PinguPingu]

Feels like hanging by the fingertips on a cliff!

 

[shouldaindex]

5050 is key, it's 15% from peak.



Fed speech and jobs report Friday night and Shanghai back Monday morning, so looks to be the 3rd very interesting start of week next Monday.

 

[tinhat]

Right now, all the proxies for investor risk preferences that I track are signalling continuation of the current regime. What this means for the AU indices is not crystal clear, but if I had to make a forecast it would be: expect volatility.

Can you describe the key indicators you use?

 

[MrBurns]

I've lost a bundle over the last 3 weeks but I see little point in selling, just leave them there even if it takes years to recover.
VAS and BEN are the main culprits.

 

[rimtas]

, just leave them there even if it takes years to recover.

If you knew where the bottom would be, and what is current location in banks, would you still consider keeping them until they recover?

 

[MrBurns]

If you knew where the bottom would be, and what is current location in banks, would you still consider keeping them until they recover?

BEN has specific problems of it's own I think, as I found out too late.

If the banks decline as you say, then VAS in in for more declines as well.

I'm not happy to write $30k off so I'll just sit tight.

 

[gartley]

Just some thoughts for the market on Monday. A move lower early on to 4900-4950 and then we have the possibility of a short term bullish Gartley setup and bounce, the ratios are almost textbook. This is supported by short term cycles analysis and as such would offer a good R/R with a stop at the previous low of the capitulation we had a few weeks ago.

Cheers

 

[PennD]

Just some thoughts for the market on Monday. A move lower early on to 4900-4950 and then we have the possibility of a short term bullish Gartley setup and bounce, the ratios are almost textbook. This is supported by short term cycles analysis and as such would offer a good R/R with a stop at the previous low of the capitulation we had a few weeks ago.

Cheers

Yep... rally with china on their open. I'm looking to the 23rd before big plunge busting this multi year trendline (2009) from mars into nothing but thin air a lot can happen in 3 weeks though...
http://screencast.com/t/RQ8Nb6s2HH

Ps..Still learning how to post charts/pictures, hence the link.

 

[Porper]

Just some thoughts for the market on Monday. A move lower early on to 4900-4950 and then we have the possibility of a short term bullish Gartley setup and bounce, the ratios are almost textbook. This is supported by short term cycles analysis and as such would offer a good R/R with a stop at the previous low of the capitulation we had a few weeks ago.

Cheers

Nice pick up although I don't personally trade the Gartley. I do trade the Butterfly though which is what I'll be looking out for. A similar pattern but it does mean recent lows will need to be breached by a small margin. Should this occur we may well have bullish divergence in place as well. Just a possibility at this stage but it would be interesting as a break down through the August lows will trigger bearish signals for 95% of traders. Most will then be looking to short. So will I unless the Butterfly coincides with divergence.

 

[CanOz]

Interesting to see a few bulls around, with my short term bullish view on the Xina50, it's got me wondering how correlated the SPI has been with the Xina50 on the daily.....however with the wife sick, me off the bench as no.1 parent, I can't see me getting any work done today

 

[rimtas]

The breach of 24th lows will put the end of the long term bull market. Even by the slightest margin. And most likely it confirms that Wave C is in the works. Wave c is the same as third wave, so to anticipate bullish days would be stupid. Most likely it then produces Primary degree Point of Recognition, with Daily market decline of around -10%(optimistically), and will never recovers to this level until the bottom is reached.
Sharp rebound which was sported in the previous week most likely was the last second wave of the smaller degree.

If Gartley's scenario will work out, it would be no surprise, as a 3-3-5 flat correction will develop, with the last five wave move up to complete last second wave. But it should start rising on Monday, as later and deeper subdivisions will not allow this scenario. But why market would want to keep things still afloat for so long? Maybe one reason is that it wants to take on board as much people as possible before the Primary Degree Point of Recognition, because markets are doing what they are supposed to be doing: inflicting the most pain on the most number of people.

One more thing to consider during Third waves is that all strategies, analysis, cycles, oscilators, gartleys, buterflys and everything else simply stops working. You can point finger to the cycle, gartley or any oscillator that shows bottom, and it will be smashed. The only way that works here is the Wave Principle. And during those times it shows at it's best-subdivisions are the clearest in fast moving and emotional markets.
Which only proves that all other market analysis are just derivatives of the Wave Principle, not additions to it. I am looking forward to this point when people start to stop forecasting on their usuall methods that "worked" before, because they stop thrusting them after a few textbook setups which were busted by the market.

 

[gartley]

One more thing to consider during Third waves is that all strategies, analysis, cycles, oscilators, gartleys, buterflys and everything else simply stops working. You can point finger to the cycle, gartley or any oscillator that shows bottom, and it will be smashed. The only way that works here is the Wave Principle. And during those times it shows at it's best-subdivisions are the clearest in fast moving and emotional markets.
Which only proves that all other market analysis are just derivatives of the Wave Principle, not additions to it. I am looking forward to this point when people start to stop forecasting on their usuall methods that "worked" before, because they stop thrusting them after a few textbook setups which were busted by the market.

Ohhhh no..... Here we go again........

 

[>Apocalypto<]

The breach of 24th lows will put the end of the long term bull market. Even by the slightest margin. And most likely it confirms that Wave C is in the works. Wave c is the same as third wave, so to anticipate bullish days would be stupid. Most likely it then produces Primary degree Point of Recognition, with Daily market decline of around -10%(optimistically), and will never recovers to this level until the bottom is reached.
Sharp rebound which was sported in the previous week most likely was the last second wave of the smaller degree.

If Gartley's scenario will work out, it would be no surprise, as a 3-3-5 flat correction will develop, with the last five wave move up to complete last second wave. But it should start rising on Monday, as later and deeper subdivisions will not allow this scenario. But why market would want to keep things still afloat for so long? Maybe one reason is that it wants to take on board as much people as possible before the Primary Degree Point of Recognition, because markets are doing what they are supposed to be doing: inflicting the most pain on the most number of people.

One more thing to consider during Third waves is that all strategies, analysis, cycles, oscilators, gartleys, buterflys and everything else simply stops working. You can point finger to the cycle, gartley or any oscillator that shows bottom, and it will be smashed. The only way that works here is the Wave Principle. And during those times it shows at it's best-subdivisions are the clearest in fast moving and emotional markets.
Which only proves that all other market analysis are just derivatives of the Wave Principle, not additions to it. I am looking forward to this point when people start to stop forecasting on their usuall methods that "worked" before, because they stop thrusting them after a few textbook setups which were busted by the market.

so that means your trading has made you multimillionaire by now... by the sounds of it nothing works apart from what you do.

nothing is perfect inc wave

 

[shouldaindex]

Just had a read of the online news tonight, and the Recession narrative has begun, few big articles playing up it's chances. Even heard family members bringing it up this weekend. Sentiment is well and truely in the bear / fear phase now. Amazing how it's all happened in about 3 weeks.

 

[cynic]

Ohhhh no..... Here we go again........

Oohhh no. Woe betide those heathen pagans that dare to commit acts of blasphemy against the one and only prophet of the only truly prescient and infallible God of technical analysis - Elliot be his hallowed name!

 

[Porper]

Oohhh no. Woe betide those heathen pagans that dare to commit acts of blasphemy against the one and only prophet of the only truly prescient and infallible God of technical analysis - Elliot be his hallowed name!

I am not sure why Elliott Wave attracts obsessive people but taking a look back at some old posts shows that there have been a few over the years. They tend to come and go and I suspect our latest disciple of the theory will do exactly the same when he realises that most on here are not going to be brainwashed. Fanaticism comes to mind.

It is a shame as I am a great advocate of Elliott Wave but like most who use it, we also realise that it isn't the holy grail and is better used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools.

 

[sinner]

Can you describe the key indicators you use?

They are mentioned in the post you quoted.