XAO Banter Thread

[Wysiwyg]

Triple top on the daily or break the invisible line? Found myself watching stocks put on large gains over the last few months. Somewhat dumbfounded about the economy and the market action.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Must be close to breaking up from this consolidation. This 6000 point game is becoming a boring orchestration but gotta stay focused on the long term goal.

 

[Tyler Durden]

Interest rates down to historical low today and market goes down.

Things are looking a bit shaky.

 

[merlinnn]

Why is that? The US gets a sniff of a possible hike and the sky is falling, we get a cut and its dark and stormy! WTF?

Can anyone shed some light on that for me?

 

[tinhat]

It's property that has been booming, not the stock market. Yield seeking has pushed share prices to very high levels based on PEs and earnings growth outlooks. The earnings outlooks don't justify the PE ratios of many companies IMHO. The fundamentals don't justify the high prices across the board at the moment. Better to pick stocks on a bottom up approach whether that be technical or based on fundamentals. There are always great businesses to be found.

 

[skc]

It's property that has been booming, not the stock market. Yield seeking has pushed share prices to very high levels based on PEs and earnings growth outlooks. The earnings outlooks don't justify the PE ratios of many companies IMHO. The fundamentals don't justify the high prices across the board at the moment. Better to pick stocks on a bottom up approach whether that be technical or based on fundamentals. There are always great businesses to be found.

Every stock valuation method involves using interest rate as input... banks are expensive on some measures (like price/book) while cheap on other measures (like yield / bond).

Buffet said it the other day...

Mr Buffett responded that policymakers have "done a lot of things that weren't in my Economics 101 course", so the very low rates changed the usual calculations.

"Stocks are selling at high prices historically, but you need to look at them in the context of rates," Mr Buffett said.

"The question is how long will these rates prevail? Will we be like Japan?

"At normal interest rates, stocks at these prices will look very high. But if we continue with these low interest rates stocks will look very cheap."

http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-m...tes-key-to-sharemarket-bubble-20150502-1myod1

It's confusing times that's for sure.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Why is that? The US gets a sniff of a possible hike and the sky is falling, we get a cut and its dark and stormy! WTF?

Can anyone shed some light on that for me?

Probably the down volatile phase after sideways but pick you're excuse why. A pessimistic look forward? The American markets have high P/E stocks too but their markets still remain elevated.

Up volatile (11%)

Up quiet (19%)

Sideways volatile (20%)

Sideways quiet (38%)

Down volatile (10%)

Down quiet (2%)

(source - Van Tharp)

 

[Logique]

When CBA hits $95+ it's a Sell, and the market follows. The insto's knock each other over in the rush.

There'll be buyers soon for CBA, between $80-82, and then we'll consolidate.

 

[Wysiwyg]

When CBA hits $95+ it's a Sell, and the market follows. The insto's knock each other over in the rush.

There'll be buyers soon for CBA, between $80-82, and then we'll consolidate.

$79.19 low today. Looks like a sniff on the XAO of supply drying up or is there more selling before going up again? I am all in stocks due mainly to optimism and partially to company reports and outlook.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Really gotta knock these sellers out of the market and leave them behind. Leave them way behind in an uptrend.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Massive dumps at the closing auction? What the.

 

[History Repeats]

From weekly may be going to meet the lower trend channel line 5300. More probability going down to meet the lower trend channel line as its below the channel mean, the middle line. From middle downward trend the orange line 5460 would an area to watch out. From hourly break down of lower trend channel line. I think it could test the green line again if broken then all the way down to 5460. Another way looking at hourly chart shown in attachment. So basically i think $xao could be going down a bit more.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Today (Monday 29th) is looking more like a lead to a further selloff tomorrow. Really at the mercy of the large markets and not much can be done but wait I suppose. No use fighting the fear.

 

[MrBurns]

Today (Monday 29th) is looking more like a lead to a further selloff tomorrow. Really at the mercy of the large markets and not much can be done but wait I suppose. No use fighting the fear.

Might be good buying opportunities ?
Don't ask me I'm a contrarian investor, always the wrong way...

 

[Wysiwyg]

Might be good buying opportunities ?
Don't ask me I'm a contrarian investor, always the wrong way...

Wouldn't there be a lot of people annoyed if there is a bounce up tomorrow. Today was more than some disturbed day traders taking a hit.

 

[Smurf1976]

I haven't done any real analysis but I'm thinking that the falls would at least partly be due to tax loss driven selling given it's the end of financial year?

 

[Wysiwyg]

I haven't done any real analysis but I'm thinking that the falls would at least partly be due to tax loss driven selling given it's the end of financial year?

Volume was larger on Friday and less today so this is suspect. Blue chips especially lacked volume to match the gap down and range which is an anomaly. I think there are clingers still in the market with more downside to come.

 

[Logique]

Unfortunately the sentiment surrounding the Greek (probable) debt default will continue to be a massive headwind for global markets. Even if Greece is only <2% of the Europe economy.

Looks Bearish for now. The All Ords is likely to finish in the 5,300s today.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Unfortunately the sentiment surrounding the Greek (probable) debt default will continue to be a massive headwind for global markets. Even if Greece is only <2% of the Europe economy.

Looks Bearish for now.

Good assessment. Have to fess up and admit the recent month I have erased all gains for the year and turned negative. Another influence from elsewhere that stunts the ASX.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Good assessment. Have to fess up and admit the recent month I have erased all gains for the year and turned negative. Another influence from elsewhere that stunts the ASX.

I'm thinking the slap down and what is to come is far more focused on China than Greece.