XAO Banter Thread

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm thinking the slap down and what is to come is far more focused on China than Greece.

Agree, China is a more important factor than Greece.

gg

 

[kid hustlr]

Interesting few months here.

6% fully franked divies in the banks has got to be starting to looking appealing to some??

 

[kid hustlr]

In an attempt to be nostradamous:





Any thoughts out there??

 

[Porper]

In an attempt to be nostradamous:


View attachment 63931


Any thoughts out there??

Spot on...plenty of support around 5000. Then the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone between 4558 - 4219 - if support is breached. Should take years, not months to hit that lower target though.

 

[shouldaindex]

XAO was 5121 in December last year, then made 830 points to April.

Seasonal history shows December to April returns are 4.5 times higher than June to October (6.7% to 1.5%) since 1985.

So in the absence of a major trigger (most likely China or U.S) wiping off 2016 earnings, my guess would be a similar pattern based on seasonal sentiment.

 

[kid hustlr]

-100 at lunch you'd dip your toe in here wouldn't you?

 

[skyQuake]

-100 at lunch you'd dip your toe in here wouldn't you?

Be careful not to lose the whole foot!

 

[kid hustlr]

Be careful not to lose the whole foot!

doesn't matter ill just turn it into a long term trade

 

[notting]

doesn't matter ill just turn it into a long term trade

"Actually waiter! Make it a carcass."

All depends on how many dims sims Mr.Cha-Ching(of the CCP) wants to stuff in after the official lunch.

 

[shouldaindex]

Biggest drawdowns (selecting a peak to trough) between April to November since 2009:

2010 - 800 points (16%)
2011 - 1050 points (20%)
2012 - 400 points (10%)
2013 - 500 points (10%)
2014 - 500 points (9%)
2015 - 750 points (12%) *current

It's nothing new.

It's also been 4 years since a 15% drop, the maximum is 5 years (since 1960, as far as I researched). So it is no surprise that either 2015 or 2016 is headed for the largest since 2011.

 

[gartley]

Post #9449 back in April saw it all coming. Pattern, Price and Time all came together. Perfect Gartley pattern from 2007 high, Perfect ABC up from 2009 low. 89 Fibonacci Months from 2007 peak to 2015 Peak. Something significant had to be expected. CMA crossover attached give approximate targets before a rally starts


https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=4888&page=473&p=865416&viewfull=1#post865416

 

[skyQuake]

doesn't matter ill just turn it into a long term trade

Hows the toe/foot/leg/lower torso

Think we should have a bounce here @ 5k on the SPI though. China off the lows

 

[PinguPingu]

Holy crap, I thought hmm we might break and stay below 5100 today, I did not see us approaching and possibly testing 5000 already!

 

[kid hustlr]

Hows the toe/foot/leg/lower torso

Think we should have a bounce here @ 5k on the SPI though. China off the lows

I didn't buy, I have moved some cash around in preparation but I don't think there's a rush to pull the trigger. If I was trading intra day I would have bought on open thinking that would have been the low for the day (wrong!)

My plan is too look at some long term LIC type stuff if this rout continues.

 

[shouldaindex]

House Prices, Bad Debts and Unemployment are highly correlated to peaks and troughs of the ASX over the past 25 years (8 cycles).

Right now, I'm still not seeing those affected in the real world, so think this negative sentiment in the market is more likely to be a rehearsal, that will see a retrace during the better seasonal period of the year.

Taking the last 20% decline for example:

2010 April 5000 (peak)
2010 July 4200 (seasonal sentiment bottom)
2011 April 5000 (retrace during better seasonal returns in absence of trigger)
2011 September 3900 (major bear leg with actual business decline)

 

[gartley]

In post no #1831 we expected the market to reach an extreme between 4830 and 5030. This was reached this morning. The low on the exchange this morning was 4936 and the market has rebounded.

That attached updated weekly cycles projection was spot on. The projection for the AUS200 CFD data was 4858 on a closing price basis so you can see it was very close.

The weekly 3 cycle decompisitions 86 bar, 43 bar, and 22 bar have all reached extremes relative to earlier level lows and we should expect a countertrend move into September. The only way this can be wrong and the market continues to tank instead of first rallying is if there is even a larger cycle in force than that of the weekly within the larger timeframe such as monthly.

 

[PennD]

In post no #1831 we expected the market to reach an extreme between 4830 and 5030. This was reached this morning. The low on the exchange this morning was 4936 and the market has rebounded.

That attached updated weekly cycles projection was spot on. The projection for the AUS200 CFD data was 4858 on a closing price basis so you can see it was very close.

The weekly 3 cycle decompisitions 86 bar, 43 bar, and 22 bar have all reached extremes relative to earlier level lows and we should expect a countertrend move into September. The only way this can be wrong and the market continues to tank instead of first rallying is if there is even a larger cycle in force than that of the weekly within the larger timeframe such as monthly.

Hi Gartley..
Maybe we get another bounce tomorrow for a wave 4 then a little fiver closer to your lower end target before rallying into september?? Thats what I've got an eye out for anyway..
I see the US retesting there lows later this week also before shooting off to god knows where?
Volatility has entered the building. Some fantastic opportunities coming up... Thanks for sharing

 

[gartley]

Hi Gartley..
Maybe we get another bounce tomorrow for a wave 4 then a little fiver closer to your lower end target before rallying into september?? Thats what I've got an eye out for anyway..

Anything is possible. We are only dealing with probabilities!!!

But if I take the following updated 1hr and 8hr cycles analysis and price projections at face value they suggest rally maybe a fraction more tomorrow morning to finish wave A, then pullback for a few days to finish B and then rally to wave C at price projection of 5380-5400. A better projection can be made a little later, but the 8hr bar cycle charts as can be seen suggest further upside later on, but the best part of the rally came today.

The market broke below and closed below important market structure at 5400. I think it's gonna be hard to get anywhere significant back above at least in the near term and IF we get near that level THEN maybe another shorting opportunity.

 

[gartley]

Following on from post #1838.

Our initial target very early on in the rally was 5380-5400. Now that the cycle has developed further we are able to project more accurate targets. Those targets are 5494 with a possible extension to 5558.

 

[shouldaindex]

Does anyone think we'll hit new lows (4936) later this year?