XAO Banter Thread

[Triathlete]

Does anyone think we'll hit new lows (4936) later this year?

I think that level is possible. Looking at my monthly chart I believe we are now in a Long term wave 4 which can retrace 38.2% to 61.8%. This is around 5150 and 4640 Level.

So I will be looking to see if we can stay above the 38.2% level or not at this stage.

Below is the chart XAO monthly.

 

[PennD]

I think that level is possible. Looking at my monthly chart I believe we are now in a Long term wave 4 which can retrace 38.2% to 61.8%. This is around 5150 and 4640 Level.

So I will be looking to see if we can stay above the 38.2% level or not at this stage.

Below is the chart XAO monthly.

View attachment 64077

Thats a massive overlap of wave 1 there triathlete?

 

[Triathlete]

Sorry about that i was still asleep you are correct that would invalidate that particular wave count...my mistake disregard my previous chart...!!!!!!! I should take more care next time.

 

[PennD]

Sorry about that i was still asleep you are correct that would invalidate that particular wave count...my mistake disregard my previous chart...!!!!!!! I should take more care next time.

If you continue your trendline from wave c to wave 2 right through you will see the market bounced of this earlier in the week.
If you change your C to a A and your 5 to a B we have a very different picture...
Cheers

 

[PennD]

Anything is possible. We are only dealing with probabilities!!!

But if I take the following updated 1hr and 8hr cycles analysis and price projections at face value they suggest rally maybe a fraction more tomorrow morning to finish wave A, then pullback for a few days to finish B and then rally to wave C at price projection of 5380-5400. A better projection can be made a little later, but the 8hr bar cycle charts as can be seen suggest further upside later on, but the best part of the rally came today.

The market broke below and closed below important market structure at 5400. I think it's gonna be hard to get anywhere significant back above at least in the near term and IF we get near that level THEN maybe another shorting opportunity.

Hi Gartley.. would you be do kind to give me some insight on how to read your charts and where you are getting your projections from. I have never seen this method? Thank you ☺

 

[Triathlete]

If you continue your trendline from wave c to wave 2 right through you will see the market bounced of this earlier in the week.If you change your C to a A and your 5 to a B we have a very different picture...
Cheers

I will take another look at the chart....The reason for marking the wave 5 the way I had was the fact it was the top of the market...so to me that would be a five and then we went into a 3 wave abc corrective phase???

 

[gartley]

Hi Gartley.. would you be do kind to give me some insight on how to read your charts and where you are getting your projections from. I have never seen this method? Thank you ☺

Hello PennD. It's cycles based and if you read through some of my earlier posts it's explained there. Yes you will never have seen this method because it's my own work and it's about 10 years in the making

 

[PennD]

I will take another look at the chart....The reason for marking the wave 5 the way I had was the fact it was the top of the market...so to me that would be a five and then we went into a 3 wave abc corrective phase???

Sorry mate.. it appears i was half asleep also ☺
I'll try that again... abc down from the high is A, replace the 3 with a B and we have just entered C down to new lows??? Time will tell

 

[Porper]

If you continue your trendline from wave c to wave 2 right through you will see the market bounced of this earlier in the week.
If you change your C to a A and your 5 to a B we have a very different picture...
Cheers

Yes, a very different picture then.

The banks are making good patterns but same thing...as in wave-4 getting very close to hitting wave-1 high, thus invalidating the case for a longer term 5-wave movement if recent lows penetrated. On a knife edge!!

 

[gartley]

Yes, a very different picture then.

The banks are making good patterns but same thing...as in wave-4 getting very close to hitting wave-1 high, thus invalidating the case for a longer term 5-wave movement if recent lows penetrated. On a knife edge!!

That's why it's so important to have the alternate counts when applying EW. The only other way is to use other means to quantify you prime count validity. Right now using a cycles based approach I can tell with high probability we will finish next month lower on a closing price basis than this month.

 

[Porper]

That's why it's so important to have the alternate counts when applying EW. The only other way is to use other means to quantify you prime count validity. Right now using a cycles based approach I can tell with high probability we will finish next month lower on a closing price basis than this month.

Alternate counts are a must, I agree...but wave counts still have to be made correctly otherwise they mean nothing.

Time analysis also extremely important. I use Robert Miner's teachings. For example static time counts, trend vibration, time retracements etc. None work well as standalone methods i.m.o but when different techniques align (areas of confluence) a reaction at the projection usually follows.

 

[PennD]

Hello PennD. It's cycles based and if you read through some of my earlier posts it's explained there. Yes you will never have seen this method because it's my own work and it's about 10 years in the making

Thank you... i will have a look through this weekend ☺

 

[Logique]

Looks like a lower high may be forming in the XAO today. Futures not looking so hot, so far anyway.

Tonight will be interesting in the US, the DJIA is threatening to fall below an important support level -16,500.

 

[shouldaindex]

It's interesting to see the Shanghai as the epicentre rather than the Dow.

ASX dropped 40 points on open, 30 points on Shanghai open, and 40 points after RBA.

 

[PennD]

Going to test last weeks lows before a multy week rally?

 

[wayneL]

Going to test last weeks lows before a multy week rally?

Only if you hold the chart upside down.

 

[Logique]

Seasonal chart of US market months. From Hulbert Financial Digest, reproduced in article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/september-is-the-cruelest-month-for-your-stocks-or-is-it-2015-09-01

The article actually seeks to debunk the idea of Sept as a regularly poor month. Certainly August wasn't the strongish month depicted in the chart.

Opinion: September is the cruelest month for your stocks — or is it?
By Mark Hulbert - Published: Sept 1, 2015

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/september-is-the-cruelest-month-for-your-stocks-or-is-it-2015-09-01

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Terrible as September usually is for the stock market, you shouldn’t be reducing your equity exposure for the next 30 days just because of the calendar.

...since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.84% was created in 1896, September far and away is the worst month of the calendar, on average. It has experienced an average loss of 1.06%, in contrast to an average gain of 0.75% across the 11 other months. (See chart.).....

 

[PennD]

Only if you hold the chart upside down.

Whats that supposed to mean?
Are you calling down for sept?

 

[shouldaindex]

GDP Growth for Q2 = 0.2%

All it takes is for that to go down -0.3% further for Q3 and Q4 and that's a recession.

Canada and Brazil already in theirs as other big exporters to China.

 

[nulla nulla]

I thought May was usually touted as the worst month. Hence, "In May, stay away".