XAO Banter Thread
- Thread starter clayton4115
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Isn't a bubble just when people see the market go up 10% and disagree?We're not really there yet. The average PE across the 200 is ~16x. Hardly bubble territory.
Porper
Ralph Nelson Elliott
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Isn't a bubble just when people see the market go up 10% and disagree?
No, a bubble is when the market keeps going up and everybody thinks it will continue going up. Nowhere near a bubble/crash i.m.o. In fact a lot of retail investors are still on the sidelines holding cash. The technical picture is also looking much more bullish with key levels penetrated recently.
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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We're not really there yet. The average PE across the 200 is ~16x. Hardly bubble territory.
I think if you reduced your cross section of shares in your assessment to the yield and/or yield plus franking credits type shares, the price earnings ratio may be higher???? A lot of foreign investment poured in with the recent Euro money printing exercise and the retrace of the Aud$ linked to the interest rate fall.
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It's never a bubble until something pops.
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Wouldn't that make it an ex-bubble?
Probably not in a bubble yet, but it wont take long to get there IMO. Real estate is maxed out, low global interest rates, gold has lost it's shine, where are those billions going to go? I am placing a lot of cash in the market, but keep my finger on the sell button. You can't fight the trend, it's either have your cash burnt in the bank by no interest and inflation, or put it in the market. I think lots of hack investors like myself are thinking the same. We missed out on the rebound after 2008 and now want some of the action. Low rates are forcing us out of cash positions, i wont be the only one thinking like this. Lol, then when everyone is in, they will crash the market and transfer our wealth to the insiders again.
skc
Goldmember
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We're not really there yet. The average PE across the 200 is ~16x. Hardly bubble territory.
No. I don't think we are in a bubble yet (nor did I say or imply that). I simply think that we have the conditions for inflating one.
And that's why I am putting money in the market (part forced, part incentivised, and part led by greed) ... and on some really boring stuff as well. Like Big 4 and REITs. I just need to make sure I leave before it pops. I am happy about the inflating part, but I am not happy about people's potential to get hurt in the pop.
Yes. We are well within striking distance of the old all time high.
P.S. Everyone seems to agree that we are not in a bubble here. Danger danger!
P.P.S. Oh the irony of the markets and the crowd!
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Haha wow, bad auto sales news means more chance of a rate cut and the market rallies from the low.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny7uGEPgoXk
:aliena:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny7uGEPgoXk
:aliena:
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I agree on that. I'd love the market back at 4,000. That was money for jam.
It'll be interesting to see when/if XSO comes along for the ride this time.
Yep will be huge profits to me made.
The best part about the markets is you can ride it on the way down and then back up. Two enormous opportunities during a crash period.
I haven't experienced this yet in my time trading personally. But looking at 2008-2010ish gets me excited.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Bit of the Coles advertisement at the moment. "Down, down, prices are down." Oil down, gold down, US Equities down. Suppose the XAO has no choice but to go down tomorrow.
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yeap we saw it coming , still hurts
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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The XAO fell in follow up to the Dow falling. The Dow fell because the US jobs report was better than expected. Because the jobs report was better than expected, the market made the leap that interest rates would rise. I suspect that the reality is more likely to be a scenario where the Fed takes the position that "What we are doing is working. Lets continue to do this a bit longer".
In my humble opinion there is unlikely to be any change in the US official interest rates for another two (2) quarters if not longer. I suspect that the US market adjustment yesterday is more likely to reverse tomorrow or in the next few days, than it is to continue down. Our market will follow suite and today (in hindsight) will probably prove to have been an opportunity to buy. I could be wrong. I often am. Its' what makes the market challenging. good luck.
In my humble opinion there is unlikely to be any change in the US official interest rates for another two (2) quarters if not longer. I suspect that the US market adjustment yesterday is more likely to reverse tomorrow or in the next few days, than it is to continue down. Our market will follow suite and today (in hindsight) will probably prove to have been an opportunity to buy. I could be wrong. I often am. Its' what makes the market challenging. good luck
.Don't worry about that. As long as you have a yearly profit higher than cash rate, consider the year a win.
You can be wrong 9 times out of 10, but the remaining 1 can bring you a jackpot.
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hum I see a few more down days with xao at 5600/5500 before a rush up past the 6000
will see a few stop loss activated but not out of the market yet
will see a few stop loss activated but not out of the market yet
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Noticed additional supply suppressing any run ups on my watchlist today. Some players selling at a loss while others locking in profits. Fear????
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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Also possible accumulation. Some of the larger funds can and do hold prices down after a sell off, while they accumulate additional shares. When they reach their position size at the desired average cost, they take the brakes off and let the market move ahead.
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I hear about such a process quite often but I can't really understand how this is achieved. Is it done by a process of selling stock at opportune times i.e when the depth goes thinner or at places where stop runs can be achieved?
And then buying back once the runs have occurred?
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Can anyone explain why we now seem to be negatively correlated with overseas market movement :blbl:
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