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Thanks julia, was quite instructive.
XAO Banter Thread
- Thread starter clayton4115
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subprime oil? Bollox.
There is no such thing on the enough scale nor the leverage on any global scale.
The whole subprime thing was one of the casualties, it wasn't the cause of the GFC. The cause was the high oil prices that was the trigger. Everything was stopping in some countries. It just exposed the sub prime over extension.
Saying that lower oil prices may not stimulate is like saying rate cuts no longer stimulate.
The losers are the Arabs who have been ripping the world off for decades.
Consumer economies will benefit greatly and even China will benefit by it being easier to make the transition to a more consumer based economy.
Lower oil prices will even help Europe. It's the solution to just about everything on scale.
I think the justifiable fear would be if it's more a demand issue. Like the rest of commodities indicating a China collapse or general slow down in the majority of the globe that will out way US growth.
There is no such thing on the enough scale nor the leverage on any global scale.
The whole subprime thing was one of the casualties, it wasn't the cause of the GFC. The cause was the high oil prices that was the trigger. Everything was stopping in some countries. It just exposed the sub prime over extension.
Saying that lower oil prices may not stimulate is like saying rate cuts no longer stimulate.
The losers are the Arabs who have been ripping the world off for decades.
Consumer economies will benefit greatly and even China will benefit by it being easier to make the transition to a more consumer based economy.
Lower oil prices will even help Europe. It's the solution to just about everything on scale.
I think the justifiable fear would be if it's more a demand issue. Like the rest of commodities indicating a China collapse or general slow down in the majority of the globe that will out way US growth.
Logique
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All in all, a confusing investment year ahead.
The US market is on a trend, ditto Japan and China, but have they run all too far? Look at the exponential Shanghai Composite, wow.
Europe and Austr are looking uncertain.
I don't know, it's not going to be easy in 2015.
The US market is on a trend, ditto Japan and China, but have they run all too far? Look at the exponential Shanghai Composite, wow.
Europe and Austr are looking uncertain.
I don't know, it's not going to be easy in 2015.
Logique
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Fair point thanks for that. Very interesting to see how the US index subsequently blasted through the bearish hypothesis in that article.
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and very costly for me
Wysiwyg
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That chart reminded me a 1000 point drop is always a possibility.
Conditions in Aust. would have to deteriorate a lot more for that I think. It's been a tough grind but optimism and low interest rates might spark a concerted break above 6000 points this year.
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Wow, what a fade and rally to shake off Wall Streets heavy fall. CBA and TLS leading like crazy in the hunt for yield. TBH, with the RBA likely to cut if not this month than next, and global bond yields getting crushed, I think its only going to continue...
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For an economy that is worse off than it was during the GFC the market is having a great day, so far!
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Haha, you now how people often quip that Australia is usually 3-4 years behind the US in trends? Well, I guess its now our turn to have our markets surge on loose monetary policy and a falling dollar
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and I expect the boom to carry on till asx at 6500/7000 while bankrupcy and unemployment will surge
I learnt that experience in the past, real economy is often disconnected from market
so let's enjoy the ride and be ready to jump off the train in time
I learnt that experience in the past, real economy is often disconnected from market
so let's enjoy the ride and be ready to jump off the train in time
Julia
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What's driving it today? I haven't seen or heard anything especially exciting.
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The bad jobs number has lifted the chance of another rate cut in March to 70%, according to bond markets.
International investors see the ASX as relatively cheap now the currency has dropped near enough to Glenny's 75 US cents goal and the market provides large cap high yields, add to that local demand.
A tech would say simply more buyers than sellers as we break above last weeks high.
skc
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Didn't you get the memo? We have joined the global cheap money ZIRP orgy last month. The RBA turned on the muic and everyone's invited to dance. We are in a place where bad news = good news and good news = good news.
Wysiwyg
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Well the Index rose a lot but the majority of stocks didn't. In the ASX 300 there were 19 stocks that closed more than 5% higher than yesterday and 69 stocks that closed more than 3% higher than yesterday. I had to check because my holdings and watchlist went backward, stayed neutral or rose 1 or 2%.
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The ABC, in a rush to find an excuse after the fact, have stated the upcoming Ukrainian ceasefire and the softening Greek situation are leading factors.
(that's got to be bullsh!t, doesn't it?)
(that's got to be bullsh!t, doesn't it?)
skc
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Yes... we are in a different time zone so we got to cross zero before we can hit negative.
May be in 2025 we will go negative -5% official cash rate, while homeloans have a margin of 3%. Now, just imagine a world where you can take out a home loan at -2%. That'd be great. Someone's paying me to live in a $15m mansion.
Well, thank you, skc, for bringing me up to date. Obviously I have a lot of rethinking to do in order to understand the new paradigm.
Yes... that's the sad truth. I just recently started looking after the finance of my parents since their retirement... and I share the same feeling as you. I roll my eyes at the "new paradigm", yet at the same time I have to go seek higher returns.
It's a terrible situation. The music is playing, everyone can hear it and everyone is FORCED to dance, irrespective of whether they want to dance, can dance, or have a bad hip. When the music stops, many people will be left stranded. I just hope that I won't be one of them... but it also means that I would probably leave the dance floor several times before the music actually stops.
Julia
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I heard a bit of Glenn Stevens' comments to parliament yesterday; he was expressing caution about dropping rates further. One of the reasons he offered was his concern about retirees experiencing such diminished returns, and the likelihood that this could drive them into more risky investments.
There is so much uncertainty globally and nationally, imo a prudent person won't be succumbing to the temptation to put everything into the market, despite days like yesterday.
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