XAO Banter Thread

[TheUnknown]

Perhaps Porper was wondering how you arrived at 4800, is it a technical level or you just pulled it out of thin air?

Seems pretty accurate for all the macro elements you pointed out...

I arrived at that number based on what is happening around the world + what is happening with the aus economy a lot of things are happening behind the scenes which you and i don't know we are the small fish.

Oil collapsing is a BIG thing - yes it could be political to bankrupt russia but it could be the fact that 0 to almost 0 growth around the world, look at all the commodity prices everything is almost down and when i say down we are talking big time decrease in prices.

I don't try to be a smartar.se or try to know it all but 2015 will be a very hard year for the aus economy and the world, it's pretty simple if it wasn't all bad you wouldn't have 'record level low interest rates' with NO plan in the distant future of increasing them.

I'm probably wrong....................but its my opinion.

PS......whatever happens even if it jumps above 5400 it will soon go right down to about 4800 or lower.

 

[notting]

The Russian $ seemed to have just capitulated.
It should stabilize now.
All the Russian oil companies should cash in their internationally held $$$ and go hard on rubles and even leverage rubles against the US $.
That would pretty much reverse the outflow, solve everything and they'd make a killing. Be getting plenty of rubles for their oil right now too, maybe lock in future sales with a hedge at the current currency swap rate! That would be a killer. They'd be looking at around 110US a barrel in ruble equivalent prices of a couple of months ago.

 

[Muschu]

I arrived at that number based on what is happening around the world + what is happening with the aus economy a lot of things are happening behind the scenes which you and i don't know we are the small fish.

Oil collapsing is a BIG thing - yes it could be political to bankrupt russia but it could be the fact that 0 to almost 0 growth around the world, look at all the commodity prices everything is almost down and when i say down we are talking big time decrease in prices.

I don't try to be a smartar.se or try to know it all but 2015 will be a very hard year for the aus economy and the world, it's pretty simple if it wasn't all bad you wouldn't have 'record level low interest rates' with NO plan in the distant future of increasing them.

I'm probably wrong....................but its my opinion.

PS......whatever happens even if it jumps above 5400 it will soon go right down to about 4800 or lower.

It's a night when I feel disinclined to tolerate vague and inconsistent posts.

So you are telling us you are "probably wrong"' and then add your definitive PS...

I am not an informed or intelligent investor although I'd like to be. I also hope I don't pretend to be either.

I am not trying to put you down but there is no need, surely, to impress....

 

[PinguPingu]

Big fade and collapse into the close on todays relief rally, not looking great. FOMC minutes tonight will be key to whether it holds ~5121

 

[pavilion103]

Hi Santa. How's it going? What you been up to this year? Good to see you again.

I wonder if this is the low now.

 

[PinguPingu]

Even with the biggest reach-around from Uncle Sam the ASX still feels little love with another looks to be fading day..:bricks1:

 

[DeepState]

Even with the biggest reach-around from Uncle Sam....

At least he had the common courtesy to give it.

 

[McLovin]

He stole my move.

 

[Logique]

Buckle up today..

 

[PinguPingu]

:chimney

He has arrived!

 

[notting]

US economy posted its strongest growth in more than a decade during the third quarter, supported by robust consumer spending.
Gee I wonder if they should raise rates?
I wonder what rates were the last time they had this kind of growth.
Yellen is behind the curve.

 

[Logique]

What do people think? Different scales for a start.

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - By Mark Hulbert -11 Feb 2014
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11?link=kiosk

 

[Logique]

Another one for the Bears.

Why the Next Stock Market Crash Will Happen Any Day Now - by Christian Hill - 28 Dec 2014
http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Market-Collapse-Finance-Stocks/2013/03/01/id/492699/

..The evidence is in a group of charts released by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
Individually, these charts may not mean much. But taken collectively, they are simply too much for any investor to ignore..

 

[pavilion103]

Thanks for that.

I am trying to get on a position trade short. Particularly at these levels.

The past couple of weeks was such a sharp little push up. Probably a really good place to get in if this is going to fall from here.

Interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Smurf1976]

What do people think? Different scales for a start.

Interesting but there's far less actual movement (note the scale difference) in % terms now than in 1929.

That doesn't necessarily make it invalid, no doubt we could all come up with explanations for the lower volatility, but there's a definite difference there.

Looks like we'll know the answer in a matter of weeks at most if it's correct.

 

[rimtas]

What do people think? Different scales for a start.

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - By Mark Hulbert -11 Feb 2014
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-1929-market-chart-gains-traction-2014-02-11?link=kiosk

I am not sure why you posted this chart comparison now, besause it is one year old.


The situation resolved itself in the folowing way:







Everyone comparing history charts with current day charts must know the basics of a Fractal Formation, which tells that fractals self-replicate with high probability ratio only at one degree higher within the wave structure. The more backwards you go, the less probability it has to replicate itsefl.

And the popular chart in mass media instantly kills even the remaining few % of chances to replicate further price action. This particular chart I even saw in one small European traders forum earlier this year, so it really was a widespread idea.

 

[notting]

Believe me!
you are not going to have any kind of financial crisis when oil has dropped over 50%.
We'll unless that's all you've got to sell.

 

[Smurf1976]

Believe me!
you are not going to have any kind of financial crisis when oil has dropped over 50%.
We'll unless that's all you've got to sell.

Agreed that the oil price plunge will help many aspects of the economy. That said, oil is still expensive by historical standards even after the recent falls.

I'd argue that it's "less bad" now that it's down around USD55 or thereabouts rather than being genuinely "good" as such.

 

[qldfrog]

I am not sure why you posted this chart comparison now, besause it is one year old.


The situation resolved itself in the folowing way:

Agreed, I rode that wave and had great paper profit till december 2013 then it started diverging and lost all my paper gain + more
past is not representative of future
the comparison was so eerily in its matching I could hardly believe it so I added a lot of options..but they ended expiring worthless
on that peculiar idea, i went from +60k or so to -80k at the end of the year when all was counted in.
A good but expensive lesson!!!

 

[Julia]

Believe me!
you are not going to have any kind of financial crisis when oil has dropped over 50%.
We'll unless that's all you've got to sell.

It might not at all be as simple as that.
Have a look at this, from tonight's 7.30.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4155928.htm

Note in particular comments from SATYAJIT DAS, Financial Analyst whose discussion on the GFC both before it happened and later was prescient.