XAO Banter Thread

[drsmith]

Correct me if I'm wrong. AFG Allco Finance Group were part of that consortium, broke a year later. What would have become of Qantas if that deal went through?? Could have resulted in a federal govn't bailout to save an 'aussie icon' a la GM in the states?

One can imagine that if it went ahead, the buyers would have attempted to sell if for a handsome profit, most likely bundled with lots of debt with the new shareholders and creditors left to carry the can once the GFC hit.

Under that scenerio, it could nave been another ABC Learning at the very least.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Why did the Dow go up 2.4%?

No good reason as far as I can see. Normally such a jump would be bullish in the short to medium term. Not this time.

In the media I think they take whatever the market has done and try to give it some reason when there is none, hence:

"Dow jumps on hopes of Greek bailout talks"
"Dow falls on fears of Greek bailout plans"
"Dow up on hopes of Spain bailout"
"Dow smashed on fears of Spain bailout"... and so on for about 1 year's worth of headlines.

How about "The market was up last night, because there were more buyers than sellers"...?

 

[Trembling Hand]

How about "The market was up last night, because there were more buyers than sellers"...?

Nope. There was exactly the same amount of buyers to sellers...... as there always is.

 

[CanOz]

Nope. There was exactly the same amount of buyers to sellers...... as there always is.

How about:

1.) new longs buying on perceived value
2.) old shorts taking profits
3.) new shorts running for the door

CanOz

 

[Trembling Hand]

How about:

1.) new longs buying on perceived value
2.) old shorts taking profits
3.) new shorts running for the door

CanOz

How about the buyers were forced to pay higher prices to get their fill.

 

[CanOz]

How about the buyers were forced to pay higher prices to get their fill.

Well that certainly covers all three doesn't it, but it doesn't really summarize the psychology, which is the interesting part....to me.

I had an audio book by Alex Elder and i just loved the way he narrated the market...you could understand what was happening with the emotions much clearer.

CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

Well that certainly covers all three doesn't it, but it doesn't really summarize the psychology, which is the interesting part....to me.

I had an audio book by Alex Elder and i just loved the way he narrated the market...you could understand what was happening with the emotions much clearer.

CanOz

that's all great but many of the buyers who are forced to push the offer, as selling is exhausted, are not emotional, they are simply constrained by where they are in their valuation models......you may read all the emotive stuff from a numpties point of view, however, institutional pov can be distinctively different at different stages of trend or rotation of price zones.......

 

[Joules MM1]

i also stick by what i said a few days ago that there can be one buyer for several sellers, that is, one account is soaking the sells from many smaller accounts (at a low in trend) which is quite diff to the idea that there is one buyer for every one seller which implies a balance that doesnt exist even tho the transactions are in balance of one purchase equals one sale......figuring that out, when and where, is a tough task but one worth pursuing, imo

 

[Trembling Hand]

Of course if there is 100 accounts selling dose not mean there is 100 on the other side. But it does mean the same amount of volume doing the exact opposite. As for if there was just 1 large dude doing most of the volume on one side I'd be more inclined to fade it.

 

[Joules MM1]

Of course if there is 100 accounts selling dose not mean there is 100 on the other side. But it does mean the same amount of volume doing the exact opposite. As for if there was just 1 large dude doing most of the volume on one side I'd be more inclined to fade it.

spot on...understanding when/where this occurs is the key......youve gone straight to the next step in the conversation, rather than ethereal meanings......

 

[Joules MM1]

when volume lifts, price lifts and there is one group of traders on the bid and a different group on the offer, what's the next question that needs to be answered?

 

[kid hustlr]

Which side will be exhausted first?

 

[enigmatic]

I think it is actually that there was more potential buying volume then potential selling volume.
offcourse if you sell one share there must be one share bought.
But if there is 100 shares being sold but people want to buy 1000 then there is more on the buy side.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I think it is actually that there was more potential buying volume then potential selling volume.
offcourse if you sell one share there must be one share bought.
But if there is 100 shares being sold but people want to buy 1000 then there is more on the buy side.

:asdf:

:swear:

 

[nulla nulla]

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a big fall,
All the Kings horses and all the Kings men,
couldn't put Humpty together again.

Frankly, this pretty much sums up where the XAO is at the moment. The figures released early in the week saw consolidation then a euphoric rise on Thursday. Then on Friday, the daydream burst and all of Thursdays gains were wiped out in a blink. Oddly enough the miners enjoyed a run up on Friday but it wasn't enough to offset the fall back by the financials.



( ). Love the volitility but get tired of the erratic mood swings. We can expect this to continue long after the forthcoming Greek elections. The focus will then be Spain, Italy and France (Ireland probably won't rate a mention).

 

[notting]

Oddly enough the miners enjoyed a run up on Friday .......Greek elections. The focus will then be Spain, Italy and France (Ireland probably won't rate a mention).

China cut rates - miners bounced then quickly retraced realising that China data to be released is likely to be less than the usual glowing lies.
Greek elections could be as indecisive as last time. Paralysis and uncertainty everywhere.
Meanwhile focus is starting to shift to congress with Big Ben pointing to them and saying 'It's now up to you.' Their deficit not to mention debt issues are the worst possible thing for sentiment and S & P have just reiterated their negative watch - Republicans control the house in an election year and there is no surer way to flip a president than to have chaos in the markets.
You'd want to have defensive positions or no positions with that flock of dark quackers circling!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

+50 today possible?

I'm not feeling it, but if it happens, maybe time to start sniffing around for something to buy.

 

[Trembling Hand]

+50 today possible?

I'm not feeling it, but if it happens, maybe time to start sniffing around for something to buy.

is that your system?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yeh I buy whenever the Ords is up 50. That's my system.

 

[nulla nulla]

Yeh I buy whenever the Ords is up 50. That's my system.

I take you didn't buy today.