XAO Banter Thread

[Gringotts Bank]

correctomundo nulla.

A couple of my fav stocks are doing ok the last few days but I can't bring myself to back them without the broader market support.

 

[skc]

I suppose it's rebalance day at the close today... some stocks closed all over the shop.

SPN +9% after being flat all day.

AUT closed $3.23 but reached only $3.15 during the day.

SDM closed $1.62, while it was only $1.55 immediately before close.

These appear to be the work of people who get paid a lot of money to look after a lot of money... yet they just don't seem to care when they move prices by 2, 3, 5 or 8% because they wanted their fill straight away.

They could have got much better prices had they exercise more skill, care and not go out to lunch for so long on a Friday.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It all looks like a bottom to me.

I could be wrong.

I've lost a lot of money on engaging bottoms in the past.

gg

 

[tinhat]

It all looks like a bottom to me.

I could be wrong.

I've lost a lot of money on engaging bottoms in the past.

gg

gg what is making you think this? What are you seeing in the charts or in the news that is giving you hints about this? Interested to hear your thinking. I recall that in the downturn in the second half of last year you were quite pessimistic and saw the market crashing further. I'm more worried about this correction than the last one.

The S&P 500 has gone through three up waves since the GFC and could be due for another leg down after exhausting a dead cat bounce. A result in the Greek elections this week that is favoured by the markets could be that last push in the current relief rally before another leg down. Europe is not solving any of its problems. Finance markets need confidence. Without confidence they can't function and I can only see further downside risk everywhere I look in Europe and the USA. Unless a republican is elected president in the USA later this year there is no way that they are going to get their fiscal crisis sorted out (given that the lower house is republican controlled).

For the XAO I guess that China and to a lesser extent other developing countries (India) are the key. We have to hope that the worst of China's slow-down has just passed.

I find it interesting that the market nor the AUD have responded much to the 75 basis point cut to the cash rate over the past two months.

 

[nulla nulla]

The xao continues to dance up and down in a tight configuration like the greeks dancing the Sirtaki.



Hopefully on Monday the Greek elections results will be pro Euro parties combining to form a government and we will get some upward breakout happening on the XAO (At least for a few days). Overnight on the International markets was fairly positive. I can't believe with all their problems the Dow Jones is creeping back up toward 13,000.

 

[Logique]

Looking across US and Euro bourses, needless to say they are heavily tech oversold, and a move seems on to swing upward. So eventually the XAO should follow. Also the USD index is falling on expectation of more QE, helping gold to consolidate above 1600.

 

[blue0810]

Hopefully on Monday the Greek elections results will be pro Euro parties combining to form a government and we will get some upward breakout happening on the XAO (At least for a few days). .

Will see.

 

[tinhat]

Looks like pro-euro coalition is the outcome of the Greek elections. I'm seeing a retracement back to around 4240 before the next leg down (triggered by Spain perhaps?). Let's see what comes out of Rio.

 

[blue0810]

Good Morning:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/stocks-eyes-gains-after-greek-elections-20120618-20ipr.html

 

[Gringotts Bank]

There's the 50+ points, bringing it to the top of the very tightly packed descending wedge which began on 21/5.

This wedge is the Greek election wedge.

I'll probably buy a few stocks at close so long as there is no retracement during the afternoon.

Looking solid.

 

[Trembling Hand]

There's the 50+ points, bringing it to the top of the very tightly packed descending wedge which began on 21/5.

This wedge is the Greek election wedge.

I'll probably buy a few stocks at close so long as there is no retracement during the afternoon.

Looking solid.

Why did you wait?

The other thing is whats the edge on buying after a 2% rise? Very crappy would be my guess. I might run a test tonight when I have time but you must have a "system"?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Why did you wait?

The other thing is whats the edge on buying after a 2% rise? Very crappy would be my guess. I might run a test tonight when I have time but you must have a "system"?

I waited because of the wedge - it looked very indecisive and I'm sure it represents a holding pattern around the Greek elections. Now that it's at the top side of that wedge and we're due for election results....it just augurs well, for the short term anyway.

I also waited because of some (undisclosed ) system rules.

Whether any of this plays out, well that's the roulette wheel of the market. Let it spin.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yesterday a retest of support, fine.

Now this sh1tty candle with a huge wick, just when it should have been moving. Can't stand the Aus market at the moment. Sick as a dog.

 

[young-gun]

Yesterday a retest of support, fine.

Now this sh1tty candle with a huge wick, just when it should have been moving. Can't stand the Aus market at the moment. Sick as a dog.

may get worse tomorrow depending on what bernanke's got to say.:behead:

 

[Trembling Hand]

The other thing is whats the edge on buying after a 2% rise? Very crappy would be my guess. I might run a test tonight when I have time but you must have a "system"?

Ok, so I ran a query for gains 5 and 10 trading days after a 1.5% rise on the XAO. Basically no edge since Jan 2002!!

If anything 5 days later we are more likely to lose % than gain.

 

[nulla nulla]

Once again we are sitting just above the recent support area of 4080. Any good news in the Australian economy is eclipsed by the procrastination of Europe ("will we save Greece or won't we") and the political impasse of a Republican controlled Congress with a strangle hold on the Democratic Presidents testicle(s). Not to forget the hennie pennies running arround saying a slowing in the rate of growth in the chinese economy spells the end of the world and the hedge funds allegedly shorting everything "because they can".



If Greece was a sick dog down on the farm, it would have been put out of it's misery by now. I'm surprised the RSPCA hasn't taken the rest of the Euro members to task for cruelty to dumb animals.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Swing low, sweet chariot?

I think so.

Buying some MAD at close. Will sell them to you at $1.20 in a few days.

Hmm, someone's front running me! :

I'm going to buy some DLS also.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

It's not going to go too far up. The market has shown that it has absolutely no interest in going above 4200 in the short term. So that leaves sideways or down. I reckon sideways for a few days then down. If it breaks 4050 to the downside, then there's a 300 point drop in store.... then a big buying opportunity at approx 3700.

 

[Trembling Hand]

It's not going to go too far up. The market has shown that it has absolutely no interest in going above 4200 in the short term. So that leaves sideways or down. I reckon sideways for a few days then down. If it breaks 4050 to the downside, then there's a 300 point drop in store.... then a big buying opportunity at approx 3700.

Gee we are up for the week.... why so glum?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

A few reasons. Spec market is dead. I made a couple of $ on DLS and MAD today, and that's the first trades I've in about 10 days!! XAO upper boundary looks set in stone at 4200, so I'm thinking there's more downside to come.

Glumness is bad for trading. Luckily there is coffee. Maybe I should look into coffee futures.