XAO Banter Thread

[CanOz]

CanOz.

If you run a trend line from 9/3/2009 to 8/8/2011 and extend to present day, do you think this will be a possibility to resist the price fall?
Another trend line on the top back to 29/102007 and you get a big triangle.
This one will not create as much fear.
Just a thought.
Sorry I cannot provide a chart with my software. I am setting up a Mac with parallels.
Maybe able to produce it by Sunday.
joea

I gotcha there, but it does make a bigger descending triangle. The target would be so low you wouldn't believe it, probably too much data to be relevant. The constituents have changed by now.

We should get a bounce here though, but it will only present another shorting opportunity. We'll need a bounce and another low before we can see higher prices again. Being the summer soon in N.America, i wouldn't expect another bull run until later fall. That doesn't mean we won't get a little rally, but for now, in my view this leg of this bull market is done.

CanOz

 

[nulla nulla]

It will be interesting to see the outcome of the G8 meeting this weekend in the U.S.A.

Will the world leaders turn the printing machines on again (or speed them up)?
Will the U.S Fed provide access to low interest rate funds to world banks again, like they did in 2009?
Or will they cut Greece and Spain loose?

Our market has dropped near enough 10% in 12 trading days. Most other times it has taken a panic dip like this there has been a rebound recovering most of the losses, followed by a slow decline to the levels reached in the panic dip before gradually rebuilding again.

The markets are driven by irrational exuberance and fear & panic. At some stage those inclined to panic will be out of the picture.

 

[nulla nulla]

CanOz.

If you run a trend line from 9/3/2009 to 8/8/2011 and extend to present day, do you think this will be a possibility to resist the price fall?
Another trend line on the top back to 29/102007 and you get a big triangle.
This one will not create as much fear.
Just a thought.
Sorry I cannot provide a chart with my software. I am setting up a Mac with parallels.
Maybe able to produce it by Sunday.
joea

Is this the one?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I don't like today's action at all. A very steep fall over 2.5 weeks and it only just managed to scrape back to the 78.6% fib line. No bounce in the cat.

 

[joea]

Is this the one?

View attachment 47163

yes, sorry I did not get back sooner.

Now go to this link and see if you think its a 5 wave triangle correction in an uptrend!

http://stocata.org/ta_en/elliott.html
Somebody with Elliot understanding may comment for you.
joea

 

[nulla nulla]

yes, sorry I did not get back sooner.

Now go to this link and see if you think its a 5 wave triangle correction in an uptrend!

http://stocata.org/ta_en/elliott.html
Somebody with Elliot understanding may comment for you.
joea

I don't really believe in the Elliot Wave theory. It has always struck me as a hindsight record rather than a means of prediction. In my opinion there are plenty of other chart indicators that are more readily recognised and able to be factored into your personal risk assessment. No offence.

 

[Gundini]

No bounce in the cat.

Haha, true dat! But surely we are somewhere near the bottom: circa 3900 - 4100.... How much risk can there be? Sure we should be bouncing off 3100 with people jumping out of the city windows, Greece stuffed, Uk stuffed, US stuffed, China stuffed, Gold and Silver stuffed, Super Funds stuffed, Property stuffed, Paper money worth nothing, no Robots.... The end of the world is near, may as well go and top myself lol...

 

[joea]

I don't really believe in the Elliot Wave theory. It has always struck me as a hindsight record rather than a means of prediction. In my opinion there are plenty of other chart indicators that are more readily recognised and able to be factored into your personal risk assessment. No offence.

nulla nulla
No offence taken. each to his own.
joea

 

[Joules MM1]

ok, fess up.....who planted the tree ?

green shoots anyone?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Haha, true dat! But surely we are somewhere near the bottom: circa 3900 - 4100.... How much risk can there be? Sure we should be bouncing off 3100 with people jumping out of the city windows, Greece stuffed, Uk stuffed, US stuffed, China stuffed, Gold and Silver stuffed, Super Funds stuffed, Property stuffed, Paper money worth nothing, no Robots.... The end of the world is near, may as well go and top myself lol...

Hold off on that for the moment

I reckon we might just hover around the 4100 mark until the outcome of the Greek elections.

 

[sammy84]

Hold off on that for the moment

I reckon we might just hover around the 4100 mark until the outcome of the Greek elections.

By then the market will have already run.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yesterday's definitive break of the big triangle is screaming sell. If you were to apply pattern height rules to the triangle, the target for XAO is just above 2000 (not that that is going to happen).

So I'm using today's hefty bounce to sell the one poultry stock I was holding. And wait for a turnaround.

 

[skc]

Yesterday's definitive break of the big triangle is screaming sell. If you were to apply pattern height rules to the triangle, the target for XAO is just above 2000 (not that that is going to happen).

So I'm using today's hefty bounce to sell the one poultry stock I was holding. And wait for a turnaround.

I am unaware of any stock on the ASX that deal with demostic birds. What's the code?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

*paltry :thankyou:

Ingham = public co.?

 

[skc]

*paltry :thankyou:

Ingham = public co.?

Not... actually the only poultry stock is CKF (running KFCs).

BTA is probably a poultry stock in the sense the it only goes up when there's bird flu breakout.

There's also a stock called Falcon minerals... although I am unsure if Falcons, even when domesticated, can be considered poultry.

Back on topic...

Not much of a bounce in the market but at least my account is mean reverting a bit...

 

[grace]

Gosh, things have changed since I last posted. We seem to have had some updates from Joe.
Not much has changed in the market though. All a bit sad. I think it will take some time for sentiment to change in the overall market. Poor old qantas today, who will be tomorrow? I only have a couple of holdings left (so probably those ).
It is good to be back in this forum.

 

[drsmith]

Poor old qantas today, who will be tomorrow?

Didn't a consortium led by Mac Bank offer something north of five bucks per Qantas share in the madness that preceeded the GFC ?

The board would like that day back.

 

[nulla nulla]

The offer was $5.60. I sold my small parcel at $5.30 in the price jump after the buy out approach was announced. I wasn't sure the buy out would get up so I took my money off the table while I could.

 

[notting]

There was this idiot grey headed hero Muppet representing the share holders, protecting them from big bad MQG . The media kept putting his stupid head on the box as he came out with cracker lines like, "Well, if it's such a good offer why do they wants to buy it so badly!" And "I don't want to pay the capital gains and want to keep my franked dividend." The idiot scuttled the deal and I hope he is still holding for doing such a good job representing the retail shareholders!

 

[Junior]

Didn't a consortium led by Mac Bank offer something north of five bucks per Qantas share in the madness that preceeded the GFC ?

The board would like that day back.

Correct me if I'm wrong. AFG Allco Finance Group were part of that consortium, broke a year later. What would have become of Qantas if that deal went through?? Could have resulted in a federal govn't bailout to save an 'aussie icon' a la GM in the states?