XAO Banter Thread

[nulla nulla]

Its like comparing a night out with a country girl first time off the farm and a night on the rack with a nasty Dominatrix.

Both can be fun but totally different experiences.......

:whip

I'll take your word for it.

 

[nulla nulla]

Which is a little odd given many stocks have already fallen below the lows of not just 2011 but of the 2008 March lows!!

Another bemusing thing is that, so far, REITS are being treated like safe havens.

most of the reit's have reduced their borrowing significantly since the gfc. Most don't have to refinance major debt for another 12-18 months or so.

The price falls make their yield and the p/e ratios even better.

 

[skc]

most of the reit's have reduced their borrowing significantly since the gfc. Most don't have to refinance major debt for another 12-18 months or so.

The price falls make their yield and the p/e ratios even better.

Also, they are heading into ex-dix in about a month's time so that may be of some help.

 

[kid hustlr]

With regards to the wash day, does this have to happen in the cash market or is there a chance this occurs overnight in the futures market?

If that's the case then is it possible it never shows up on a standard XJO chart, you would just see a big gap up?

Example:

ASX closes @ 4000 at 4.15pm.

SPI continues to trade down 100 points and gets to around 3900 through out the night then reverses hard and makes its way all the way back to close @ 4050

ASX opens the next day @ 4050 at 10.00am

Effectively the 'wash day' occurred but it wouldn't occur on the cash market charts, we would just see a gap up.

 

[CanOz]

With regards to the wash day, does this have to happen in the cash market or is there a chance this occurs overnight in the futures market?

If that's the case then is it possible it never shows up on a standard XJO chart, you would just see a big gap up?

Example:

ASX closes @ 4000 at 4.15pm.

SPI continues to trade down 100 points and gets to around 3900 through out the night then reverses hard and makes its way all the way back to close @ 4050

ASX opens the next day @ 4050 at 10.00am

Effectively the 'wash day' occurred but it wouldn't occur on the cash market charts, we would just see a gap up.

Yeah, good point. you can go back and see that in 2008, not many gaps though, the SPI takes care of those quite effectively.

Many time you see the XAO close the day on the low, then open on that low (having gone much lower through the night) and recover much of the previous day. Obviously the overseas markets have had a wash.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

there's the low again...

 

[Gringotts Bank]

4105 - Buy! Seems rather late in the day for this. Who feels like it will rally to close?

 

[joea]

4105 - Buy! Seems rather late in the day for this. Who feels like it will rally to close?

If it happens it will be in the last half-hour. Have been checking out patterns of this "spring", but then realised it was Friday.
joea

 

[CanOz]

The markets are really selling off now, the Kospi is down 4%...and yeah it is a Friday so i can't see a big rally into the close in Asia today...Big open in Europe today!

CanOz

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yeh not looking good. Just blown the lower trendline of the big triangle.

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeah, good point. you can go back and see that in 2008, not many gaps though, the SPI takes care of those quite effectively.

Many time you see the XAO close the day on the low, then open on that low (having gone much lower through the night) and recover much of the previous day. Obviously the overseas markets have had a wash.

CanOz

thx CanOz.

Clearly during times of high volatility just dont sleep.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Looks like 4047 to be tested Monday if DOW down again tonight.

 

[skc]

Doesn't even feel worse than July 2011 yet.

Looking for a intraday reversal before withering out like all good Fridays do.

I am long a few laggard golds at the moment.

Went pretty much according to script!

Those gold laggards didn't work out at all, unfortunately. All out at breakeven there.

 

[CanOz]

Looks like 4047 to be tested Monday if DOW down again tonight.

4029 in the futs.

CanOz

 

[nulla nulla]

It has taken only 12 trading days for the xao to drop from the recent high of 4513 to the close today of 4098.




The bad news is that the fall broke through the support line. If we don't bounce from here the next level of supports are 4057 of November 2011 then 3935 of September 2011. Both of which related to the prospects of a Greek default/exit from the Euro and tightening in the chinese economy. Sounds kind of familiar. you would think this has been factored in by now. Yet here we are again, testing the lows.

 

[CanOz]

couldn't get more ugly...:007:

 

[Sean K]

couldn't get more ugly...:007:

That's pretty emphatic isn't it. Lots of fear there. Wonder how VIX is going.

 

[Joules MM1]

That's pretty emphatic isn't it. Lots of fear there. Wonder how VIX is going.

fast forward to 4.25 min into the video

 

[CanOz]

That's pretty emphatic isn't it. Lots of fear there. Wonder how VIX is going.

Up 7% to 26.2

 

[joea]

Up 7% to 26.2

CanOz.

If you run a trend line from 9/3/2009 to 8/8/2011 and extend to present day, do you think this will be a possibility to resist the price fall?
Another trend line on the top back to 29/102007 and you get a big triangle.
This one will not create as much fear.
Just a thought.
Sorry I cannot provide a chart with my software. I am setting up a Mac with parallels.
Maybe able to produce it by Sunday.
joea