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XAO Banter Thread

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An interesting pattern playing out on the DOW since beginning of July 2010, similiar to the pattern between March 2009 and April 2010.
Next leg up not far off ?

(click to expand)
 

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Boggo said:
An interesting pattern playing out on the DOW since beginning of July 2010, similiar to the pattern between March 2009 and April 2010.
Next leg up not far off ?

(click to expand)
Click to expand...

Very interesting - it always is, with hindsight,

So what low point is your crazy triangle pointing to in late August 2011.

I've got a gut feeling the bottom is 4000 - what are your triangles telling you about this one, Pythagoras?

No right or wrong answers here - it's just the banter thread.
 
LifeChoices said:
Very interesting - it always is, with hindsight,

So what low point is your crazy triangle pointing to in late August 2011.

I've got a gut feeling the bottom is 4000 - what are your triangles telling you about this one, Pythagoras?

No right or wrong answers here - it's just the banter thread.
Click to expand...
Isn't Elliot Wave more about scrapping as many of the thousands of "possibilites" and being aware of the most probable scenarios rather than picking a number (ie. predicting the future)?
 
I'm 70% in cash atm. I am struggling to read this market. Price action overnight and today would seem to indicate that a primary downtrend is in place. I'll post up charts later.

Would love to knows other's opinions though.
 
sammy84 said:
I'm 70% in cash atm. I am struggling to read this market. Price action overnight and today would seem to indicate that a primary downtrend is in place. I'll post up charts later.

Would love to knows other's opinions though.
Click to expand...

The NFP on Friday in the US will be a key... Bloomberg showing a consensus figure of 75,000 for July. I find it difficult to believe that businesses were more confident in July than June when that figure was only 18,000.

I see a 2-3 day consolidation followed by capitulation on Friday if those NFP figures were bad...this should bring us to ~1200 which is support back in March 2010. We will probably see a long wick on the spike down (to 1180?) but a firmer close, concluding the immediate down swing (imo).

20110803 US SPX 500 (-).png

The scary thing for me is that the S&P is down only 9% from recent highs...

And to those who complains about how we follow the US like lemmings... well, we do!
 
Nah, running a much tighter spread than the djia. When the djia reached for 13,000 we stalled at 5100, twice, and have drifted down to the 4500 range while the djia has vasilated in the 12,000 - 12,500 range. If we were following the djia on the euphoric optimism we would have topped 6500.

With the djia correction yesterday of 240 we only dropped 100 to the 4400 area, most of which was knee jerk. Big mining and finance. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dead cat bounce tonight/tomorrow followed by a leveling off. I expect to see more money shifting to those shares with ta/fa strength particularly the ones with franking credits.
 
We continued our downslide yesterday even though the djia stopped it's fall.

The djia dropped 512 last night as panic hit the world markets.

One reporter, in a live cross to wall street, indicated that there was a belief that the computerised "robot" trading systems were exagerating the negative sentiment/trades.

We will drop like a brick off a cliff today. It will be interesting to see if there is any rebound in the U.S tonight or whether the fall continues.
 
Right now, 10:00pm Australian Eastern time, the FTSE is down 2.2% and the DAX is down 1.8% (per yahoo finance which might be delayed).

This doesn't bode well for the djia when it opens and the xao for monday. Panic is like a virus, highly contagious and takes a bit of getting over. I still think the XAO was oversold today but that won't stop it from being even more oversold on Monday.
 
nulla nulla said:
Right now, 10:00pm Australian Eastern time, the FTSE is down 2.2% and the DAX is down 1.8% (per yahoo finance which might be delayed).

This doesn't bode well for the djia when it opens and the xao for monday. Panic is like a virus, highly contagious and takes a bit of getting over. I still think the XAO was oversold today but that won't stop it from being even more oversold on Monday.
Click to expand...

Things are just fluctuating 0.2 to 0.5% range at the moment, with everyone a little bit frozen waiting for the 10:30pm employment figures. The US futures actually not looking that bad. S&P futures at 1198 having touched a low of 1185 or so.

There will probably be a small rebound if the numbers are only as bad as consensus.
 
nulla nulla said:
Right now, 10:00pm Australian Eastern time, the FTSE is down 2.2% and the DAX is down 1.8% (per yahoo finance which might be delayed).

This doesn't bode well for the djia when it opens and the xao for monday. Panic is like a virus, highly contagious and takes a bit of getting over. I still think the XAO was oversold today but that won't stop it from being even more oversold on Monday.
Click to expand...

The eurozone is having its own bloodbath. Instead of 1 big day like the US and AU, they get to have it broken down into 2 days.

Aussie futs only down -0.5% atm. A few things have rallied to green in UK. So not all is lost :)
 
FTSE & DAX closed down 2.7%;
djia closed up 60.93; and
Nasdaq down 23.98.

I anticpate xao will be flat on Monday waiting for further lead from the international markets on Monday night.
 
nulla nulla said:
FTSE & DAX closed down 2.7%;
djia closed up 60.93; and
Nasdaq down 23.98.

I anticpate xao will be flat on Monday waiting for further lead from the international markets on Monday night.
Click to expand...

Would that be "lead" like the thing you walk a dog with, or "lead" like the stuff bullets are made of? :eek:
 
It seemed like a decent open for AU... until the S&P downgraded US debt after mkt close.
To be fair it was partially expected so I don't think there will be much carnage.
 
skyQuake said:
It seemed like a decent open for AU... until the S&P downgraded US debt after mkt close.
To be fair it was partially expected so I don't think there will be much carnage.
Click to expand...

Normally with a 3% reversal day on the US I would bet the market going up on Monday. But I think the market wouldn't quite know what to think of the downgrade.

While the downgrade is not unexpected no one quite sure what the consequences are.
 
Solitus said:
Would that be "lead" like the thing you walk a dog with, or "lead" like the stuff bullets are made of? :eek:
Click to expand...

At the time i made the post i was using "lead" in the sense of guidance (lead the dog). However the downgrade came out afterwards and now i susped "lead" as in lead balloon is more appropriate.

Biggest problem for our market will be in the finance sector where superannuant companies and banks were required to hold AAA rating investments. Their AAA rating invesments are now only AA+.

Expect the worst and be happy if it isn't as bad as you expected.
 

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