Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Banter Thread

Jump to new
Aus economic growth worst in 20 years I read today.

You can feel it. The mother of all downturns on its way. Oh well. Best I leave the day trading and concentrate on work. I can't see any opportunities appearing in the short or medium term. Maybe a few bio's will do ok.
 
Anyone got any opinions on todays move?

I was expecting the bounce to go a little longer. Strength seemed to have return in the last few days prior with a pick in volume and good price action in many stocks. The US is showing the opposite though.
 
sammy84 said:
Anyone got any opinions on todays move?

I was expecting the bounce to go a little longer. Strength seemed to have return in the last few days prior with a pick in volume and good price action in many stocks. The US is showing the opposite though.
Click to expand...

Given good retail and reasonable trade surplus figures domestically, has been a fair roll down today. But given the data to come out of the US yesterday and their resulting slide, it seems Australias ties to the performance of the US market is still rock solid.
 
I declared myself fully invested in the FGE stock thread yesterday. At the open today I put a sell order in for a parcel of WOW which went through at $27.15 So, I've got a bit of spare cash to go and hunt for better opportunities. Can someone please call the bottom of this current correction at the appropriate time? I've got a swag of stocks on my short list. I am and plan to remain short of my position in the market prior to when my trailing stop losses kicked in during the tsunami.
 
tinhat said:
Can someone please call the bottom of this current correction at the appropriate time?
Click to expand...
People 'call the bottom all the time. Someone here said a few days ago 'time to throw in everything you've got', and then we took another hit.

I don't see what is there to give support to equities at the moment. Our chief economic driver so far has been commodity demand (mainly minerals) from the north, and China is looking like it is going to have a big correction when its construction bubble bursts. The US is a lame dog, the Euro is a basket case, and Japan is and has been for some time - very mediocre in its prospects.

What does that leave? At least with other countries, they are printing money like lunatics, adding support to asset prices, to hell with inflation targets. In Australia we are actually tightening the money supply to curtail inflation.

There are other assets than stocks, which asset class to be in should be decided first, and only then if stocks are decided upon - which stocks to buy should be decided.
 
"Can someone please call the bottom of this current correction at the appropriate time?"

tothemax6 said:
People 'call the bottom all the time. Someone here said a few days ago 'time to throw in everything you've got', and then we took another hit.

I don't see what is there to give support to equities at the moment. Our chief economic driver so far has been commodity demand (mainly minerals) from the north, and China is looking like it is going to have a big correction when its construction bubble bursts. The US is a lame dog, the Euro is a basket case, and Japan is and has been for some time - very mediocre in its prospects.

What does that leave? At least with other countries, they are printing money like lunatics, adding support to asset prices, to hell with inflation targets. In Australia we are actually tightening the money supply to curtail inflation.

There are other assets than stocks, which asset class to be in should be decided first, and only then if stocks are decided upon - which stocks to buy should be decided.
Click to expand...

Yea, but there are short term multiday swings in the market that have nothing to do with fundamentals. I like volume in u.s. metal, energy and material etfs as well as commodity currencies to tell me where swing bottoms are. One of my favs is SLX, a steel based us etf, but i look at alot of etfs. Bottoms arent easy, and sometimes take days to come good, and there will always be 1 more test down to shake out tight stops. And then some will say reversals are too hard, and best just to join a trend (like gold) because the odds are it will eventually keep going in that same direction. good luck.
 
Back down onto support today. We bounced quite strongly up off this line last week. Lower from here and I'm concerned.
 

Attachments

  • xao_3year_3_6_11.png
    xao_3year_3_6_11.png
    8.1 KB · Views: 1
  • xao_6mnts_3_6_11.png
    xao_6mnts_3_6_11.png
    8.4 KB · Views: 1
Still looks like it's on the road to nowhere longer term (nb:XJO attached), Gold FTW.
 

Attachments

  • XJO 2011.jpg
    XJO 2011.jpg
    73.7 KB · Views: 6
tothemax6 said:
Interesting, thanks for that. I have finally received some explanation of technical analysis which ties in economic reality.
Click to expand...

Yes, some areas of Technical Analysis do appear to have an underlying relationship to reality (fundamental, economic or behavioural).

tothemax6 said:
I am happier to be right, sure. But if one cannot enjoy being corrected, and learning from ones mistakes, what is the point in argument anyway?
Click to expand...

Thanks for that. I've had my B.S. detector recalibrated and I am happy to report that it is now registering at the bottom end of the scale. This would indicate sincerity. Apologies for any inconvenience that previous reading may have caused.

I look forward to reading more of your posts.
 
Re: XAO Banter Thread - From the frying pan to the fire

Finances dragging the xao down as the markets worry about the flow on costs of finance if Greece defaults or isn't bailed out. The U.S spin doctors are working overtime to justify lifting their debt ceiling and decide whether or not to go to Q3 and speed up the printing presses.

The international rating agencies have finaly realised, after 20 years, that the Australian Mortgage market uses overseas funds and although the ratio has been reduced since the nadir of the gfc, the agencies think the practise risky. They have reduced the bank ratings.

The Hedge funds think Australia has a "Ninja" mortgage exposure like the one that caused the U.S. property market bubble to burst. They don't see the fact that, unemployment in Australia is less than 5%, makes any difference. What do they care. They can make money pushing our market down then pushing it back up again.

The Australian economy has minimal links to the U.S and European economies but if overseas money see's a risk here, they pull their money and.....wait for it...buy U.S$. Talk about jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.
 

Attachments

  • xao 2011-06-03.png
    xao 2011-06-03.png
    7 KB · Views: 4
Charlie is right.

Don’t Try to Predict the Future

I used to think that there were experts and geniuses out there who knew what was going to happen in the markets. I thought that these traders and market gurus were successful because they had figured out how to predict the markets. Of course, the obvious question is that if they were such good traders, and if they knew where the market was going, why were they teaching trading techniques, selling strategies and indicators, and writing newsletters? Why weren’t they rich? Why weren’t they flying to the seminars on their Lear Jets?
Click to expand...
 
There's about 6 stocks that have gained 5+% for the day! This is the worst out market has looked since the start of 2008.

The sentiment is actually worse in a way. Back in 2008 it was panic, now it's more like resignation/depression "here we go again". Panic usually creates strong rebound, so at least you can try to pick the bottom and get on. Resignation/depression is a much more damaging sentiment. Right now it feels like a slow drawn out death that's going to last years and years! Cold, dark years! The tipping point was in May I guess, but signs were present in that March rally.

These are the sort of conditions discount brokers dread. Their trade volumes will be way down.

And now for the good news... :)
 
SPX/DJI/nasdaq all in red last nigth.

XAO become very ugly. Next week if still falling I have to sell my index ETF
i haven't short the market , but looks like short is game to ply in near the future
Good luck long term gurus.
 
Short covering on Financials?

Noticed last night that there was bullish divergence on the 10 day advance/decline. Today is quite a strong trending day. Short term bounce seems on.
 
sammy84 said:
Short covering on Financials?
Noticed last night that there was bullish divergence on the 10 day advance/decline. Today is quite a strong trending day. Short term bounce seems on.
Click to expand...
The Futures say up tomorrow. As I write the UK FTSE100 is up 0.7%.
 

Similar threads

kahuna1
All trading needs to cease for 14 days prior to Monday open in Sydney
2 3 4
Replies
75
Views
10K
divs4ever
divs4ever
R
21 Lessons in Investing
Replies
6
Views
3K
divs4ever
divs4ever
kahuna1
Opinions vary... An alternative view on the markets
3 4 5
Replies
85
Views
27K
kahuna1
kahuna1
R
The Financial Endgame
Replies
18
Views
9K
qldfrog
qldfrog
Top