XAO Banter Thread

[Wysiwyg]

Looks to be at a decision point for bounce holders and long term holders at this level. Rose coloured glasses are in demand, thinking the worst is over. The swing from pessimism to optimism.

 

[Wysiwyg]

And now (well this morning on open anyway) further correction to manifest. I have some low and even lower again orders at technical boundaries but gee it's hard to think positive during the falls.

 

[blue0810]

Ugly … Keep calm. US market are tanking !! .So far spx /dji/nasdaq - 4%
They are recovering from their lows.

 

[tech/a]

Price action is as expected.
Wave 4 correction stalled and there was a short period of consolidation.
I suspect this was distribution as those who are astute
Sold into those who are smart--- buying bargains!!!!

The problem that now occurs is that if stocks fall to the level of " bargain" buying level those who were smart may well be smarter and dump their holdings.

Personally I expect this to be the impulse move towards the low of wave 5
But will take a while to get there,

I will be very surprised if we see the sort of strength after open that we have seen before.

Most weren't expecting this--- it WAS all over!

But with economics un changed there is a whole world of ostrich's trading.

 

[nulla nulla]

Volumes pushing the prices down are reputedly low. Volumes that pushed the prices up (other than tls) were not huge either. I suspect that a lot of people sold into the bounce (smart selling to the smart) and traded the bounce.

The djia was down 570 at some point during the night but pulled back 150 or so points to close down 420. Is anyone expecting another midday recovery or are we going to test the support levels around 3800 again?

 

[sinner]

That's a pretty tight range building into the second half of the day, XJO 3 min chart.



Any thoughts on whether this will continue into the close? Might bode pretty poorly for the Monday open if so.

 

[tech/a]

That's a pretty tight range building into the second half of the day, XJO 3 min chart.

View attachment 44129

Any thoughts on whether this will continue into the close? Might bode pretty poorly for the Monday open if so.

Currently this indicates that most of those who wanted out got out at open.
Those that waited for the buying frenzy are taking what they can get everytime price advances hence the range.
I just noticed a spike in the SPI to 4123 which got sold off harder and faster than it developed.

Personally I think there are a lot of people trading or more so INVESTING on hope.
I think buyers in abundance will leave this and most markets for sometime.

So indexes arent going to look pretty.
Sell the corrections.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Volumes pushing the prices down are reputedly low. Volumes that pushed the prices up (other than tls) were not huge either.

Yes on my watchlist the losses were small and a stock I had on order to buy dropped a measly 1.39% on low volume. I was like way lower than that at 25% dump zone. Cheeky bugger hey.

The sell off is continuing O.S. tonight so we might see some local holders stretched next week.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Had trouble overcoming resistance today. I reckon -30 tomorrow (4240). Nothing much looking tasty at close. Might get some VBA at open tomorrow if it opens at 26.5 or 27.

 

[nulla nulla]

Reporting season is upon us and the market inconcistancies that go with it. The market darlings jump on irrational exuberance and the unloved get sold off faster then last months fashions at discounted prices.
Some good oportunities opening up in the period between performance reporting and going ex-div, for the stout hearted (or mad). The volatility certainly makes for some quick turnovers.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Damn hard to get a riser in this weather. Took the break even option twice, two small losses and one small winner (BBG bounce) since Monday. Definitely sellers jumping any rises.

 

[Wysiwyg]

My low cost averaging / buy and build experience was somewhat painful, and i feel that pain helped motivate me to maintain discipline and keep buying the lows....i entered the market in 2007 just before the first warning market dip in July/august at arguably the worst possible time.

You don't consider selling everything at the market tops and buying again at around the lows using the same strategy?

 

[VSntchr]

Very strong rise this morning...wonder how it will go this afternoon...
I was expecting falls this week...so far the opposite is true.

 

[Logique]

Yesterday on the XAO was one of the most disappointing days I can remember. When we could reasonably have expected a solid or slightly positive day, instead market participants turned tail and the XAO finished down -1.6%.

Now we see the S&P 500 up +1.35% overnight (third daily gain in a row) to 1188, or +3% on the week. Also the FTSE 100 again up overnight, and nearly +2% on the week.

Serves the kneejerk shorts, and the 'gloom and doom' crowd right. The above three indices as a group, if the shorts can read a weekly chart, they ought to be nervous.

 

[nomore4s]

Yesterday on the XAO was one of the most disappointing days I can remember. When we could reasonably have expected a solid or slightly positive day, instead market participants turned tail and the XAO finished down -1.6%.

Now we see the S&P 500 up +1.35% overnight (third daily gain in a row) to 1188, or +3% on the week. Also the FTSE 100 again up overnight, and nearly +2% on the week.

Serves the kneejerk shorts, and the 'gloom and doom' crowd right. The above three indices as a group, if the shorts can read a weekly chart, they ought to be nervous.

Mate it wasn't a knee jerk reaction by anyone including doom & gloom crowd, shorts or whatever. All markets that were open during our market hours got smashed during that time - Oil, Asia, AUD.
As an example HSI lost around 680 points from open till around 4pm, but when our market closed it put on 500 points, so whatever caused the markets to rise in the US last night started filtering through at around 4-4:30pm.

It is just the way the markets work.

The real question is - do we play catch up today or do we fade again?

 

[Logique]

Cheers nomore4s,
I've calmed down now. Some follow through since, but conviction is a scarce commodity on markets atm.

 

[Logique]

Tell me the XAO isn't going to revisit 3500. Tell me LYC isn't going to test 1.00. Fans of big bank shares will be licking their lips too. When I think that at the start of 2009, somebody bought CBA shares for $25, then saw it run to $60 in 2010, plus the franked dividends along the way!

Such strong momentum, will require something momentous to turn it around. Even with the newly crowned 'Worlds Best Treasurer' at the desk.

 

[Logique]

11:30am:
-XAO - down 60
-LYC - down .03
EU and the US were pretty ordinary overnight, so a brave opening this morning for the All Ords and Lynas, well off the early lows, so buyers haven't disappeared completely.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Positive to negative territory from 10.40 today. Taking out after small gains due to real or unreal fear?
Risk .... lol.

 

[RazzaDazzla]

A brief rally before the established downtrend continues? Or sign of things starting to turn up?

It still amuses me on a daily (even hourly) basis of the markets reaction or lack of reaction to 'key' statements from leaders and other talking heads.