XAO Banter Thread

[willoneau]

What if you used the ATR of pre crash as a signal to when possible bottom has been established?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Double inside day



I would say this is a critical juncture. My experience is that if inside day breakout to the upside and then fail all the way down to form an outside day, that is very often a baaad sign. So if we breach yesterdays high, it really needs to stick.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Just realised this trendline is still rejecting even as the price went up overnight,



doesn't look super healthy.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Well, we breached yesterdays low (orange) and rejected a bunch at the March closing price (yellow). Last weeks close (green) could be possible...

Trend lines didn't hold.



From a fib perspective yesterdays low nearly perfectly matched the 0.236 retracement of 4400 => 5400. Otherwise potential upcoming supports at 5028 (0.382 retrace), 4912 (0.5 retrace), 4796 (0.618 retrace).



The retrace for 7200 => 4400 does look like the price was rejected well before it cold gain the 0.382 and breaking down below the 0.236



I think there's still a chance for the bulls, just as I said this morning if breaches to yesterdays upside fails to the downside, if the overnight session can breach the upside now to form a bullish outside day I would view that as quite bullish. But for now, breakout of the double inside bar consolidation is bearish, and was unable to gain the monthly close.

Just after 4PM now, see if the bulls return for the close or not.

 

[fiftyeight]

I used this to add to my BEAR.ASX position yesterday, I am now at 'close my eyes and cross my fingers' size.

Woke up to ES down 4.5%, down 1%ish RTH after a fun close? At least I 'shouldn't' blow my account this morning which would be nice

View attachment 101891

Looks like I will be waiting in the, 'cross everything zone' for the weekend. Not ideal but much better than the 'bury my head in the sand' zone.

Now to see what the rest of the world and Trump do

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Weekend check-in, starting from the big timezones and zooming in.

Monthly, we just started the month, I won't post the chart but we are trading below last months close.

Weekly, we had another UP week! It does look like this weeks high tested the lows of the Christmas 2018 panic as resistance and rejected. Last weeks highs also got tested and rejected:


Daily, well the double inside bar broke down but actually closed back within the range of the pattern. Not exactly an explosive move outside a consolidation pattern. FWIW, based on 5 bar swing pattern (--^--, --v--), it does look like we just made a higher low and a (very weak) higher high. That sort of defines how the the next move might play out, breaches of ~4800 would be a lower low, breaches of ~5400 would be a higher high:


4 hourly to show the Fib retrace from ~7200 => ~4420, we managed to close the week juuuuust a bit above the 0.236 retrace. To me the pattern forming in that yellow area between 0.236 and 0.382 retrace looks like distribution that wants to resolve lower, but who knows how it will play out.


Last one, the 15 minute, might as well calls this chart "rejection city" because all we got this week was nonstop trendline rejection. I actually can't fit enough arrows on the chart to show them all, suggest you open this up and zoom in on the right hand side to see how much the intraday action really got sold off these lines.

That said, we didn't break down a lot from those rejections, in a lot of cases immediately went higher to re-test the line again. Make of that what you will!

 

[qldfrog]

Weekend check-in, starting from the big timezones and zooming in.

Monthly, we just started the month, I won't post the chart but we are trading below last months close.

Weekly, we had another UP week! It does look like this weeks high tested the lows of the Christmas 2018 panic as resistance and rejected. Last weeks highs also got tested and rejected:
View attachment 101973

Daily, well the double inside bar broke down but actually closed back within the range of the pattern. Not exactly an explosive move outside a consolidation pattern. FWIW, based on 5 bar swing pattern (--^--, --v--), it does look like we just made a higher low and a (very weak) higher high. That sort of defines how the the next move might play out, breaches of ~4800 would be a lower low, breaches of ~5400 would be a higher high:
View attachment 101974

4 hourly to show the Fib retrace from ~7200 => ~4420, we managed to close the week juuuuust a bit above the 0.236 retrace. To me the pattern forming in that yellow area between 0.236 and 0.382 retrace looks like distribution that wants to resolve lower, but who knows how it will play out.
View attachment 101975

Last one, the 15 minute, might as well calls this chart "rejection city" because all we got this week was nonstop trendline rejection. I actually can't fit enough arrows on the chart to show them all, suggest you open this up and zoom in on the right hand side to see how much the intraday action really got sold off these lines.

That said, we didn't break down a lot from those rejections, in a lot of cases immediately went higher to re-test the line again. Make of that what you will!

View attachment 101977

Maybe many people offloading their batgains from a few weeks ago for a small profit
Did that with api,qbe,anz this week

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Promising early action this week from the bulls.

• Two bullish trendlines regained
• New bearish trendline broken
• Broke above the high of the double inside bar pattern
• Intraday test of March close as support

What has two thumbs and feels like a dingdong for buying OTM June puts at 5180 last week?

 

[fiftyeight]

Promising early action this week from the bulls.

• Two bullish trendlines regained
• New bearish trendline broken
• Broke above the high of the double inside bar pattern
• Intraday test of March close as support

What has two thumbs and feels like a dingdong for buying OTM June puts at 5180 last week?

View attachment 102035

Is he mates with guy who BEAR.ASX hunting?

After watching the news over the weekend becoming more and more positive in Oz, today was a bit less painful than expected.

But it is hard to believe this is the bottom. Banks putting mortgages on pause for 6 months, countless capex projects suspended, retail spending crashing, the US still unfolding, Singapore starting lock downs..... we know the list.

Anecdotally, the number of people considering cashing out super is higher than I expected and we are supposedly cashed up FIFO workers. Has anyone found any numbers on this yet?

 

[Smurf1976]

But it is hard to believe this is the bottom.

I'm thinking that a dramatic plunge, and it was most certainly that, will be followed by a similarly spectacular dead cat bounce.

I doubt it's the bottom but I doubt we've seen the end of the bounce either.

 

[qldfrog]

A put on 5100 in June if at a decent price: i buy
I would expect to sell it at the next fall before june

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I'd be surprised if we don't ding the 0.382 retrace of the fall at 5482 this morning.

 

[Country Lad]

Oh dear, that didn't last long.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I'd be surprised if we don't ding the 0.382 retrace of the fall at 5482 this morning.

Ok, I'm surprised!

I thought we might reject, but I thought we'd touch higher first.

Hourly:

 

[IFocus]

Oh dear, that didn't last long.

View attachment 102050

I wonder if that was the big boys pump and dump as people rush to cash in superannuation funds?

 

[fiftyeight]

This BEAR wont finish me off or let me go, just keeps playing with his food

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I wonder if that was the big boys pump and dump as people rush to cash in superannuation funds?

This is purely speculation but I don't think "big boys" are pumping and dumping.

To me, watching the price action all day, the last 5-10 trading sessions have all had the feeling of big boys buying and trigger squeezes, a tactic that probably works in normal markets, but then there are just huuuuge sellers waiting for any opportunity to offload parcels. I dunno if it's super funds generating liquidity or what, but someone has plenty to sell.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

regaining and testing the monthly close as support instead of resistance would be nice.

looks like we got it?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Well we got a shakeout below the March close price this morning at the open, but up since then again.

Above chart is hourly, below is 15 min


a lot of effort to end up back where we were yesterday...

 

[InsvestoBoy]

heh, dinged the trendline and straight sell into the close huh...ok...