XAO Banter Thread

[Logique]

Be interested to see what the serious money is doing,just after 4 pm this arvo,when the talkers and gawkers have packed it in for the day.My buy orders are not gonna make it......come back,big,bad virus.

They're looking ..if the US & Euro futs are any guide today. Mind you a near double-digit down yesterday, a reactive move is no surprise

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I'm interested in @InsvestoBoy thoughts on the gold miners (miners in general) getting bought up today?

Is the longer them theory cyclical stocks are the play if we get inflation?

I've always been open that I'm not a huge fan of gold mining stocks.

I hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of.

Miners in general are front-line beneficiaries of inflation mostly through beta to oil.

Look at inflation breakevens, see how they basically track the oil price to a tee.

Oil up >> inflation up. Most commodities are oil beta, just like stocks are growth beta different commodities move differently like sectors move differently while they all still track growth.

BHP (ASX) against cash WTI/AUDUSD

 

[Country Lad]

We are at about the same value now as where this chart finishes in 2016

 

[kid hustlr]

I've always been open that I'm not a huge fan of gold mining stocks.

I hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of.

Miners in general are front-line beneficiaries of inflation mostly through beta to oil.

Look at inflation breakevens, see how they basically track the oil price to a tee.
View attachment 101413
Oil up >> inflation up. Most commodities are oil beta, just like stocks are growth beta different commodities move differently like sectors move differently while they all still track growth.

BHP (ASX) against cash WTI/AUDUSD

View attachment 101412

Can you elaborate on the "i hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of".

I'm really interested in the "one should always hold gold" thesis in general - any links you can provide?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Can you elaborate on the "i hold gold for specific properties which gold miners have none of".

Physical gold has no counterparty risk. Shares in gold miners have counterparty risk.

Physical gold has -at different times- beta to real interest rates, energy prices, USD, emerging market currencies, etc. It's a magical portfolio diversifier. Shares in gold miners have only beta to the price of gold and management competence (or lack thereof). See the price of gold from 2011-2016 vs the price of gold miners during the same period.

ASX XGD index vs XAUAUD


Physical gold is a diversifier against the financial system itself, held as the base of every Central Banks reserve pyramid. Shares in gold miners are held as a reserve asset by no Central Bank.

If there is a currency collapse/hyperinflation type event, physical gold hedges that perfectly. If I hold gold miners during such an event all I end up with is more collapsed currency.

I'm really interested in the "one should always hold gold" thesis in general - any links you can provide?

I'm a long time follower of FOFOA http://fofoa.blogspot.com/ but it's not really a mainstream view. Most fund managers hold it as a real interest rate play alongside duration.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

A bit of banter:

XJO after market session just made exceeded the previous days high!

First time in ?7? trading sessions (14% higher) and before that last time we exceeded a daily high was 5th March (24% higher), both events seem like an eternity ago.

We are now also trading above last weeks close, an event that last occurred on the 3rd of March.



wild.

 

[kid hustlr]

Mum and Dad super funds deciding to liquidate over the weekend selling the low on Monday morning?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Who knows...maybe the announcements out of Europe that they are going to do fiscal stimulus plus whatever the Fed is doing is starting to hold the line?

If, and it's a big if, 4420 is the swing low then there are fib retracements at 5077 ~5% higher, 5483 ~14% higher, 5811 ~20% higher, 6139 ~28% higher...

 

[kid hustlr]

Agree it's a big if!

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Agree it's a big if!

If you pop over to the "How Far Will The Market Fall" thread, it was a biiiig if to make this post
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/how-far-will-the-market-fall.35253/page-2#post-1060468

But then the 0.618 fib extension there got dinged for a closing price and then bounce:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/how-far-will-the-market-fall.35253/page-7#post-1061227

and now looks like again off the 0.786:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/how-far-will-the-market-fall.35253/page-18#post-1063748

This market is all about the big ifs it seems...

 

[InsvestoBoy]

If, and it's a big if, 4420 is the swing low then there are fib retracements at 5077 ~5% higher, 5483 ~14% higher, 5811 ~20% higher, 6139 ~28% higher...

5077 dinged just after the open...

 

[IFocus]

5077 dinged just after the open...

Don't know if its still the case but fib always prefered ASX200

 

[Logique]

Todays XAO action was a clear break-out from the recent daily downtrend.

Combined with some amenable looking momentum indicators, it is the best market news in weeks. The $AUD is up above 0.60 again, and that's good news too, except for exporters, and at the bowser.

 

[satanoperca]

Todays XAO action was a clear break-out from the recent daily downtrend.

Combined with some amenable looking momentum indicators, it is the best market news in weeks. The $AUD is up above 0.60 again, and that's good news too, except for exporters, and at the bowser.

Have you missed something, there is no good news. Exporters, wow they have gone from 85 to 60, things have improved.

ASX below 3000 within weeks

 

[mcgrath111]

Have you missed something, there is no good news. Exporters, wow they have gone from 85 to 60, things have improved.

ASX below 3000 within weeks

Below 3000 is a big and scary call. I'm not sure we will go that low, but agree that things are going to get worse.
The U.S is in bad shape; stimulus will see small upswings but how that trickles down to the average Joe who has lost his job is a real unknown.
Every bear market has positive days and may well continue to for the next few weeks. Yet, I can't see how we rally from here (In the short term).

EDIT: Although 2 trillion in stimulus isn't chump change, it will be interesting to see how it gets distributed.

 

[hja]

Todays XAO action was a clear break-out from the recent daily downtrend.

Combined with some amenable looking momentum indicators, it is the best market news in weeks. The $AUD is up above 0.60 again, and that's good news too, except for exporters, and at the bowser.

Oh really - Fake market news?

 

[satanoperca]

EDIT: Although 2 trillion in stimulus isn't chump change, it will be interesting to see how it gets distributed.

2T, why not 3 or 4T, just numbers unless you have to pay the rent on your shelter of 0.0000000000000000000001T per month.

 

[Logique]

"..below 3,000 within weeks" ..Satanop and presumably Hja?

Don't play politics. Greta thinks she has Corona btw

 

[hja]

"..below 3,000 within weeks" ..Satanop and presumably Hja?

Don't play politics. Greta thinks she has Corona btw

haha I don't about 3000 but do you really think that breakout is convincing?
Greta expresses a lot of her thoughts... let's just say she's not always/often right...

 

[Smurf1976]

Oh really - Fake market news?

What's wrong with Logique's assessment of what has occurred?

They haven't said there's any guarantee as to the future but the comment seems pretty spot on in terms of what's happened thus far. It's a more convincing bounce that anything else since the decline got underway - no guarantees what happens next of course.