Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Couldn't post any intraday charts on Thursday as TradingView kept stuffing up.

Anyway, time for the weekly check-in while the markets are closed:

On the monthly chart, we are above the March close. How high might we go? Nobody knows for sure, but the most recent completed monthly ATR was 494 XJO points and the H/L range for this month so far is 434, we could push a bit more in either direction and still be "average".

Weekly, another up week, bringing the number of consecutive up weeks to 3! We did clear the 2018 low and even hold it on a weekly basis, that's nice, but the more consecutive up weeks the higher the likelihood of a down week eventuating. The weekly close from the second week of March looks like it might be a point of interest to test this coming week so I included that on the chart:

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On the daily, it was a pretty choppy week. That said, we did get a higher high and higher low based on 5 bar swing pattern. It also looks like there is a bear flag/ascending triangle type pattern unfolding. I just put some rough lines to highlight it, that would be a downward continuation pattern.

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4 hourly to show the fib retrace from high => low. Even though I was bearish on the action on this chart last weekend, we held the 0.236 retrace and got to within a whisker of the 0.382 retrace at 5483. If you're bearish then 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618 retraces are all potential resistance to scale in into some shorts or offload longs into rallies.
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Lastly the hourly, with trendlines that I've been drawing on the chart connecting swing highs/lows as they appear. These have been amazing at containing price action on touches, so I keep watching them.

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Oh...as a bonus comment, I won't post the chart but the SPX has made it to 0.5 retrace of the crash. So that's a little relative strength indicator, we only made it to 0.382 in the same swing, much weaker.
 
Still going up, but still going up on the wrong side of these trend-lines...

Hourly chart, the three arrows indicate the overnight action where we rejected.
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Good stuff IB. It's climbing that 'Wall of Worry' isn't it, an engrossing battle of the Bulls and Bears atm
 
Quick 1min chart before the open,

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after I posted the breakdown chart above, we didn't push strongly until the US session opened.

Now trading below last weeks close and opening the possibility of a down week.

We could be down on our way to test the March close again?
 
Over the next 3 hours, we'll get to see how much of last nights' dinner hits the blades :)

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Over the next 3 hours, we'll get to see how much of last nights' dinner hits the blades :)

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It'll only be bad if the numbers are worse than the market has expected.

My past experience has been that those numbers tend to affect the AUD rate much more than the equity markets...maybe the XJO participants are better forecasters and less subject to shocks? What do you think?
 
When I see the expected participation rate in March at 65.9% from a previous 66% I feel a stocktake on toilet paper is imminent :)
 
When I see the expected participation rate in March at 65.9% from a previous 66% I feel a stocktake on toilet paper is imminent :)

Nah I don't mean, whatever crappy expectations that Bloomberg reports as analyst consensus before the numbers come out.

I mean, what does the market pricing imply in terms of expectations from participants. Analyst expectations have no money behind them.
 
Let me rephrase.

If the market is pricing 50% participation, and it comes out as 55%, then the natural reaction will be price up, not down, even though that is a terrible number...
Agreed. However I just find it hard to believe the rate would go down by just 0.1% in March but as you say, the expectations are crappy at best and unpredictable at worst.
 
Let me rephrase.

If the market is pricing 50% participation, and it comes out as 55%, then the natural reaction will be price up, not down, even though that is a terrible number...
Yes was confusing initially..But yes it is sadly mostly a psychological game
You are dying tomorrow: down, but your ex wife lover dies tonight Up :)
There were some market gains due to comparative impact of the virus...Psychology is amazing
 
Well, we spent the whole day since open retracing (fast at first, then slowly once the unemployment numbers came out) back up to the breakdown I posted last night (green line on below chart).

No sellers into the closing auction or anything too bearish. Relatively quiet day and the ASX VIX is only trading ~32, fairly chill compared to recent history and realised vol, volatility targeting funds using ASX VIX as their input may be ~50% long here (assuming a target vol of 15).

This new trendline created off the two magnifying glass lows seems like it might be holding on the 15 min chart

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