Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Worst drought ever

nioka said:
If you eat you are involved in agriculture.

I don't know, I don't eat cotton.

I do however, have a friend, Milo Minderbinder, of catch-22 fame, who is trying to sell me some suspicious looking cotton candy...
 
Funny thing I read about that Cubbie Station, they bought the water rights from the Qld state government, which would be right as states do own the water rights to their rivers, and now the state wants the federal government to buy it from Cubbie.

I wonder will the Qld govt stump up the money they got for the rights in the first place and the federal just pay the balance, I doubt it :(
 
Realist said:
It is about time people stopped moaning about the drought.

Australia is the dryest continent in the world (apart from Antarctica) - farmers get huge amounts of cheap land in areas known to be very dry. Then they moan about it not raining enough. No sh*t, of course it doesn't rain much! If you want rain got to New Zealand or England.

Your understanding of Primary Production makes me laugh Realist. :D It is the right out of "Townie Textbook 101". Have you seen a cow that wasn't in a Golden Book?

Lets have a think Realist. Sheep country at Orange is selling for $1600 per acre - Barcaldine is selling for $200 per acre. Yes - at first glance the country at Barkie is "cheap" - hey Realist? But what if I was to say you need 8 times the country at Barkie to make the same as the property at Orange.

I'll explain it to you in terms you might understand. Share A costs $1000 and pays a dividend of $100 - Share B costs $200 and pays a dividend of $20. Based on the return on investment which is the cheaper share?

The reason "dry" land is cheap is due to the fact that it only "carries" a small number of livestock to the acre. Good country in proven rainfall areas carry say 3-4 head to the acre, poorer quality dry country runs say 1 head per 20-30 acres. Which is why you get much bigger land holdings in inland regions.
People buying property in Barcaldine do not expect NZ or English weather conditions. But they depend upon their "average" rainfall to make a reasonable living from their larger sized holdings.

Unfortunately the bush has experienced the same spike in land prices that the cities have experienced. The current price of land is completely out of kilter with what can be made off it. In my opinion the drought is a distraction. Where I am the price per acre has NO CORRELATION to current commodity prices. Unless you have existing land holdings somewhere to help service debt - it is impossible to purchase a sustainable farming operation and repay the debt. Drought or no drought.

Stick to your share threads Realist - you are out of your depth in these ones.
 
macca said:
Funny thing I read about that Cubbie Station, they bought the water rights from the Qld state government, which would be right as states do own the water rights to their rivers, and now the state wants the federal government to buy it from Cubbie.

I wonder will the Qld govt stump up the money they got for the rights in the first place and the federal just pay the balance, I doubt it :(

Macca , Cubbie station (or Cubby as I called it) seems to be a test case yes? btw, when I misspell words it's because I rely mainly on the ABC - the spoken word - hardly ever read these days lol. (ABC? - the best 8 cents I spent today ;)) I drive to work during AM, and come home during PM. because PM lasts for 60 minutes, I drive a longer route lol.

I posted a lead to the following website on post #33 of thread " should Australian Farmers get relief" https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4746
http://www.abc.net.au/water/stories/s1767730.htm

No doubt there are more recent updates.

btw, pleasing to see that there was a majority who voted yes to that question on that thread, BUT not by the sort of majority you'd expect from citizens of "the lucky country" -
"and the small percentage who know it". :eek:

the results were 59% "yes" and 41% no - shouldnt give drought relief!
oops - then again only 27 voted lol - not like the topic set the world on fire ;)

I also whipped up a poem on #37 there - Ill stick it on the poetry thread (at the risk of being accused of grandstanding - I write these to keep my own conscience on track - if it catches someone elses as well, then great - mind you I'm happy to be proven wrong - and could care less if the words rhyme or not) - BUT I suspect that since then the mood has changed - partly because the drought has worsened, and partly because us city folk are having it sooo easy, it's gettin to our consciences at last. :2twocents


PS - good point about Qld govt and Aus govt !! lol
 
I don't think farmers should get handouts. I run a small business, and if I have a bad couple of months or whatever, I don't start crying poor and looking to sponge off taxpayers. So why should farmers?
 
constable said:
It is very scary. Here in ballarat we are now on stage 4 restrictions meaning you cant water your garden at all. I heard that a bloke last thurs got the first $3000 fine for washing his car . Meanwhile yesterday we spent $900 on a pressure pump and fittings so we can pump water out of our inground pool to keep the garden alive!
Next project is to hook all the storm water and some grey water off the house and into the pool.
Once ive done that my prediction is the drought will break!

Constable,

I do feel for your situation. Must be awful. How is it that the pool water doesn't kill your plants - presumably it contains salt and chlorine amongst other chemicals which plants wouldn't like?

I've always been told never to let the pool overflow in heavy rain because, despite the dilution of a lot of rain water, it would still damage the garden.

Julia
 
Duckman#72 said:
Your understanding of Primary Production makes me laugh Realist. :D It is the right out of "Townie Textbook 101". Have you seen a cow that wasn't in a Golden Book?

Lets have a think Realist. Sheep country at Orange is selling for $1600 per acre - Barcaldine is selling for $200 per acre. Yes - at first glance the country at Barkie is "cheap" - hey Realist? But what if I was to say you need 8 times the country at Barkie to make the same as the property at Orange.

I'll explain it to you in terms you might understand. Share A costs $1000 and pays a dividend of $100 - Share B costs $200 and pays a dividend of $20. Based on the return on investment which is the cheaper share?

The reason "dry" land is cheap is due to the fact that it only "carries" a small number of livestock to the acre. Good country in proven rainfall areas carry say 3-4 head to the acre, poorer quality dry country runs say 1 head per 20-30 acres. Which is why you get much bigger land holdings in inland regions.
People buying property in Barcaldine do not expect NZ or English weather conditions. But they depend upon their "average" rainfall to make a reasonable living from their larger sized holdings.

Unfortunately the bush has experienced the same spike in land prices that the cities have experienced. The current price of land is completely out of kilter with what can be made off it. In my opinion the drought is a distraction. Where I am the price per acre has NO CORRELATION to current commodity prices. Unless you have existing land holdings somewhere to help service debt - it is impossible to purchase a sustainable farming operation and repay the debt. Drought or no drought.

Stick to your share threads Realist - you are out of your depth in these ones.

Hi Duckman,

I'm not here to defend Realist in his absence, and understand completely the point you are making.

However, isn't it reasonable to think that if farming in the areas you describe is so difficult then it might be better to relinquish the struggle?

I absolutely acknowledge that I'm completely ignorant about farming anywhere. Just don't quite understand why if a business (which farming must be considered to be I guess) doesn't appear to be sustainable, you would persist in trying to make it so, and in the process expect a lot of government assistance?

If I decide (being a keen gardener and lawn enthusiast) that I will set up a nursery and turf farm, buy the land, set it up in an area with minimal rainfall, and the plants and the turf fail to grow, then I guess I'd have to take responsibility for attempting to do something which just wasn't realistic.

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, Duckman. I'm just a bit puzzled about why it's seemingly unacceptable to say that trying to have a viable farming operation in some areas, given the weather conditions, is such heresy.

Kind regards
Julia
J
 
Julia said:
..I'm not here to defend Realist in his absence, and understand completely the point you are making. J
I could be ultra- nasty and speculate on how many farmers from Bourke travel - to Tasmania let alone Europe - but I wont ;)
None of us wanna go there - give anyone a hard time - we all want everyone to have a good life - even Realist lol - but hell if we can't be a bit generous when half the country that provided prorata more than their share of "the fallen" in world wars, is getting "burnt to death - slowly, slowly" - then it's gettin a bit stingy imho. This is not "user pays", this is a national DISASTER.
 
Julia said:
..and in the process expect a lot of government assistance?
Julia - I think it's more a case of charity - beware of words that might come out sounding a bit like something Ayn Rand would say ;) - "no-one is entitled to a single cent of the money that I have earned", "greed not need" etc. Youve got a case, - and surely farmers should be HELPED (imho) to get ff their land, but the stronger case imho is with the farmers. Global warming is mainly driven by us dudes in the cities after all - and our extravagent wasteful decadent self-indulgent etcetc lifestyle.
 
2020hindsight said:
I could be ultra- nasty and speculate on how many farmers from Bourke travel - to Tasmania let alone Europe - but I wont ;)
None of us wanna go there - give anyone a hard time - we all want everyone to have a good life - even Realist lol - but hell if we can't be a bit generous when half the country that provided prorata more than their share of "the fallen" in world wars, is getting "burnt to death - slowly, slowly" - then it's gettin a bit stingy imho. This is not "user pays", this is a national DISASTER.

http://www.aynrand.org/site/PageServer?pagename=about_ayn_rand_aynrand_biography
"Ayn Rand ...Atlas Shrugged was her greatest achievement and last work of fiction. In this novel she dramatized her unique philosophy in an intellectual mystery story that integrated ethics, metaphysics, epistemology, politics, economics and sex. " _ I dontr recall much sex in that book - but I do recall her saying things like the quotes above ;) - one tough lady - then again born in Russia , saw the Bolshevik revolution in 1917/18 etcetc.

Some of her quotes :-
http://www.hypermall.com/cgi-bin/rand-quotes.pl
"Poverty is not a mortgage on the labor of others - misfortune is not a mortgage on achievement - failure is not a mortgage on success - ..."
[ Hey lady - you have a heart? Ever lost when the dice of life were rolled, ever queued up at the Salvos for a meal? the winners in the game of life should recognise the fact there are others less fortunate - not ignore them - imho ]

PS Here's what she said about pollution:- back in the 60's granted - but we are reapingthe rewards today ...;)

"If it were true that a heavy concentration of industry is destructive to human life, one would find life expectancy declining in the more advanced countries. But it has been rising steadily. Here are the figures on life expectancy in the United States:
1900 - 47.3 years
1920 - 53 years
1940 - 60 years
1968 - 70.2 years (the latest figures compiled [as of January 1971])
Anyone over 30 years of age today, give a silent "Thank you" to the nearest, grimiest, sootiest smokestacks you can find.-- Ayn Rand, "The Anti-Industrial Revolution," The New Left: the Anti-Industrial Revolution

[ life expentancy ? - try the miserable expectancies that the third world has inherited from this attitude - but I digress, only wanted to make a point about "blind - no - blinkered eye to suffering and charity"]

Even if smog were a risk to human life, we must remember that life in nature, without technology, is wholesale death.

http://www.quotationspage.com/quotes/Ayn_Rand/
Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask for your own destruction. When money ceases to become the means by which men deal with one another, then men become the tools of other men. Blood, whips and guns--or dollars. Take your choice--there is no other.
 
2020hindsight said:
Julia - I think it's more a case of charity - beware of words that might come out sounding a bit like something Ayn Rand would say ;) - "no-one is entitled to a single cent of the money that I have earned", "greed not need" etc. Youve got a case, - and surely farmers should be HELPED (imho) to get ff their land, but the stronger case imho is with the farmers. Global warming is mainly driven by us dudes in the cities after all - and our extravagent wasteful decadent self-indulgent etcetc lifestyle.

2020

I think you're missing the point I was making. I'd be the first to help where such help would enable viable farmers through a difficult period. But my comments were based on Duckman's description of farmers trying to farm poor land (that being why it was cheap), and if there was never likely to be much chance of such land being successful, it just seems pointless to try to sustain a living from it.

Don't insult me with comparisons to Ms Rand.

Julia
 
Julia said:
2020, I think you're missing the point ...were based on Duckman's description of farmers trying to farm poor land ... it just seems pointless to try to sustain a living from it.
Don't insult me with comparisons to Ms Rand. Julia
Julia, Apologies for any insult, unintended. I meant to clarify that there was a chance it could be misinterpreted as going down that road ;)

As for the viability of Barcaldine and points west, you'll probably find half of Aust closing down. If you are saying pay off a few and give twice the land to the rest, maybe that would help. "sheep to the acre" becomes "acres to the sheep" etc. My grandfather was born out near Birdsville, not that far from where Burke & Wills died (as the crow flies - mind you they fly backwarks out there to keep the sand out of their eyes). His father went out there about 16 years after Burke and Wills - and only had aboriginal stockmen. He went broke (first time) during the tough times around 1901 - but that can't qualify as the worst time on the land in living memory? - because he died yonks ago ;)

Hard headed Randy economic models? They dont come much harder than Realists #43 - but his #49 (partly) corrects this - at least he states that he sympathises with the farmers. And it would be unfair of me to selectively quote from his or anyone elses posts.
Realist said:
post #43 - It is about time people stopped moaning about the drought. etc]

In post #49:- (but) I sympathise with farmers, govt pay for training reskilling etc ( -all good suggestions)

PS I was going to say that if yuo want a RANDY opinion then just ask Realist lol ;) can't imagine anything insulting him, his skin's like Rhino hide. ;)
 
Smurf as some good points, ONLY ONE mention of cubbie station! they have HUGE water storages on the place, stopping the natural flow of the inland water system in the channel country!
Try reading The Cattle King by Ion Idriess A fascinating very discriptive tale about Sid Kidman, & how he founded a cattle empire on the fact seasonal rains spread SLOWLY southwards.
Also about flooding of lake Eyre & how the theriory is its a sinkhole for the Artesian Basin! Which is also DROPPING in the water table & a lot of bores are failing! & others now need a pump on them its VERY frightening stuff!
I still feel Cubbie Station is a water theif & a hell of a lot of cokies would agree!
Maybee A water storage in the monsoonal north & pumping southward is a possibility something to DWARF the Snowy Scheme?
Also THE Land is a worthwhile weekly read( the cokies newspaper) its not just cows & sheep!
 
Best example would be India, Pakistan where water table was dropped by hundred metres or more due to extraction of water for farming from bore holes.

I think to lesser extent it happened in Vietnam too and few other countries in that region.
 
Julia said:
Hi Duckman,

However, isn't it reasonable to think that if farming in the areas you describe is so difficult then it might be better to relinquish the struggle?

I absolutely acknowledge that I'm completely ignorant about farming anywhere. Just don't quite understand why if a business (which farming must be considered to be I guess) doesn't appear to be sustainable, you would persist in trying to make it so, and in the process expect a lot of government assistance?

If I decide (being a keen gardener and lawn enthusiast) that I will set up a nursery and turf farm, buy the land, set it up in an area with minimal rainfall, and the plants and the turf fail to grow, then I guess I'd have to take responsibility for attempting to do something which just wasn't realistic.

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, Duckman. I'm just a bit puzzled about why it's seemingly unacceptable to say that trying to have a viable farming operation in some areas, given the weather conditions, is such heresy.

Kind regards
Julia
J

Hi Julia

Sorry - I forgot Realist was away! :D I wasn't trying to kick the boot in while he was away.

A couple of points:

1. I agree that we should not be supporting primary producers that are operating businesses that are simply not sustainable. There is no question about that.

2. Like all walks of life there are primary producers who will never make money. Their land holdings are too small, they are poor operators/managers, they are poor decision makers. These people should not continually be given support because their businesses are failing.

3. Then there are those people who are good managers, have adequately sized land holdings and are very careful with their funds. Basically these primary producers need assistance due to financial tightness brought on by the drought. Accourding to Realist and others on the forum there is no difference between farmers in Paragraph 2 and those in Paragraph 3.

4. The problem with this debate is that it is so subjective. Who makes the call " You're sustainable - here's your exceptional circumstances payment"', "you're not - sorry, please leave". It all seems too hard for Realist so he lumps all primary producers in together.

5. The example you have provided Julia seems to indicate that you have missed the point of my argument. The person in your example does not have a viable business (drought or no drought). They should not be eligible for assistance - primary producer or not. You have just provided a scaled down version of the "pineapples in Alaska" argument. In your argument you knew that a turf farm should not be established where it was set up.

6. The reason primary producers are afforded different tax status and financial assistance is in part due to the lack of control they have over their business (read - income). Their income is heavily dependent upon climatic conditions. Yes - I know all industry groups are affected by the state of the economy. Builders, hairdressers, publicans and primary producers alike - but not all industry groups are reliant upon the weather. Other industry groups have much more control over their businesses.

7. You made a comment to Hindsight questioning the need to help those primary producers that own cheap dry land out west. I'd like to clear a couple of things up at this point. Throughout the course of this thread there have been a number of assumptions made about primary producers that are not correct. These being:

*All primary producers and land holders are rich
*All producers sell livestock o/seas for top dollar.
*All primary producers operate businesses that are not sustainable
*Primary producers in western areas don't make money
*All primary producers expect handouts and a lot of it.
*Primary producers don't pay tax.

These are simplistic generalisations and just not correct. Julia, there are some extremely successful primary producers near Burke, St George, Longreach and Dimboola. Per acre these places are very cheap compared to land on the Darling Downs. They make money becasue they are of a sustainable size, they are good managers who employ sensible farming practices. The farmers there don't expect 10 feet of rain per year - their country doesn't need it. But they do expect to get 1 foot - their country needs that. People seem to have this perception that it doesn't rain in inland Australia - therefore it is always in drought. You can have a drought at Bourke just as you can have a drought in Orange.

8. The people I sympathise with are those regional areas of Australia that rely on Primary Producers for their income. There is no assistance for them. The fencing contractors, tractor dealerships etc. They are the ones that are really feeling the pinch.

9. We heard a number given at the water summit "' a 1 in a 1000 year flood"''. Who knows if that is right? Could be rubbish - but it provides the point - primary producers can make an adequate living in average seasons - yes even at Barcaldine! The only reason they are not at the moment is due to exceptional drought circumstances.

10. Please don't throw the majority of worthy primary producers in with Rice and Cotton Growers. That is just a distraction. Water wasters. You would be very surprised to see the % of rice and cotton growers recieving EC payment. Overall it would be very low - yet seems to have taken up a large part of the debate here.

Regards

Duckman
 
Julia said:
Constable,

I do feel for your situation. Must be awful. How is it that the pool water doesn't kill your plants - presumably it contains salt and chlorine amongst other chemicals which plants wouldn't like?

I've always been told never to let the pool overflow in heavy rain because, despite the dilution of a lot of rain water, it would still damage the garden.

Julia
Hi julia sorry about the late reply ,
we chlorinate our pool but over the winter it doesnt get treated. Chlorine breaksdown with uv which is why generally you have to treat your pool on a weekly basis otherwise it goes green pretty quick! As far as poisoning im not aware of slight chlorine levels affecting your plants. Ballarat,s water supply and meltons for that fact both reek of chlorine and im more worried about drinking it than putting it on my garden!
 
Also would like to add my two bits worth, id rather see my taxes subsidise farmers thru bad times and be able to continue to eat fresh australian produce. Charity starts at home and as far as im concerned plenty of other industry sectors get government help at one time or another via tax breaks grants etc etc.
Granted there are some bad farmers on marginal land out there,but if they get a free ride while we help the greater good , so be it ,what goes around comes around.
 
Duckman#72 said:
... a number of assumptions made about primary producers that are not correct. These being:

*All primary producers and land holders are rich
*...*All primary producers operate businesses that are not sustainable
These are simplistic generalisations and just not correct.

Likewise I should qualify my comments that I am talking for those that are not rich (a large percentage, especially after a few years of this drought). And I agree that some are "extremely" rich.

As for the bad managers who often happen to have small properties getting the flick, and presumably buga all help (implied) , - what choice does this "bad" manager have but to work his land hard! , and leave himself vulnerable to dry times? he's gotta gamble if he wants to put food on the table! there is no other option. - he's only playing the hand he was dealt! ...

Talk him into leaving with dignity - he'd love you forever - and you'd have his vote forever. Believe me, he's not so dumb that he wouldn't run from that property if he had the chance - take an offer for reskilling? jump at it , provided he could extricate himself from the clutches of some bludy bank that was strangling him so tight that he wished "the almighty had not fixed his canon 'gainst self slaughter." It's only their bludy okker courage that gets em through the day.

And I suspect he's at least as clever as scientists that pretend that the weather isn't getting hotter, and the land isnt getting drier, and the bores arent getting deeper, and the salt isnt getting whiter , etcetc.

The peripheral damage to the small businesses that service the farmer has been spelled out firsthand in other posts (these people all rely on the farmer as the first in the financial food chain) - no rain, no food on the table for any of 'em. As they said at the Conference - It's a CRISIS.

There were I believe 14 mayors representing downstream of Cubbie who lobbied to plead the case that Cubbie be bought out - will it happen? a real test of committment of the fatcat pollies overseeing this? time will tell. :2twocents


PS I wonder whether we'll see action ? or algae first?
 
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