Worst drought ever

[Smurf1976]

As usual you make it all sound so easy - but without too much smoke and not too many mirrors ( none that I can see).

PS Got your point about "not using up the reserve in the system, because then when we want a reserve we wont have it". Are you implying that politicians and planners push their luck with planning ? Dont build any fat into their plans? and then blame "bad luck" when they are shown to have cut corners or dont have enough resources? ( be it water, power, back burning? ) SHAME on you smurf

The way I see it, it comes down to an engineering problem. The water is available, but not in the place and at the time we need it. That has ALWAYS been the case but in the past we built the necessary engineering works to overcome this constraint. As the population has increased these works are no longer adequate - that is ultimately the entire cause of the problem as far as urban water supply is concerned.

You can have 98% reliability of water supply pretty easily, it all depends on how hard you push the system. For example, if we accepted a 50% chance of system failure (running out of water) in any one year then we could generate x amount of power from the Tas hydro system. If we cut back that chance of running out of water to 2% in a year then the system will only produce 91% as much power. So, you lose 9% of the output but incur the same costs in order to achieve a major increase in reliability. Liberal politicians, economists and environmentalists see this as inefficiency, I see it as commonsense planning as does the Hydro.

You can't get 100% reliability if you're depending on nature. 98% is about the limit of what is economic to achieve but that means water (or in this case power) problems once every 50 years rather than practically every year as is the case now with water in most states. Certainly, over 99% reliability is quite doable in an engineering sense but you would have to derate the system (losing revenue) quite a lot in order to do it. 98% is just where the balance of cost / benefit sits reasonably well.

There is no engineering reason why Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne couldn't have a water supply system where restrictions of any kind are a once or twice in a lifetime event. Indeed Sydney had exactly that at one point, but then the population grew and supply hasn't been expanded to keep up.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Kyoto is a sop to the bleeding hearts, both India and China will INCREASE their green house emissions in the next year by more than the TOTAL emissions in Australia.

If Oz stopped emissions completely then by the next year it would have made no difference to the world, but a hell of a difference to us.

In fact, because we actually try to limit our emissions we should manufacture more in Oz, this way the countries that do not limit emissions will have less demand, the world will be better off

Also, if we look at the history of the world we are in fact still in a mini ice age, of course we are going to get warmer, the world has had no polar icecaps for the vast majority of provable climatic history (drill cores etc)

The current federal government is the first in recorded history to actually try to do something about the stuff up the states have created with our river systems.

By law, the states control the water in their own rivers, an example is that Qld, NSW, Vic and SA have managed to sell 128% of the water flow of the Darling Murray system

All state political parties are guilty, the only way to fix it is to buy back the water rights from the farmers, this is what the federal government has quietly been doing. But in reality the states, all four of them, need to reduce everyones water rights and leave some water for those lower down.

There is a guy in Qld with dams bigger than Sydney harbour for his cotton, he has weirs across the river and pumps it all in to his dams. In the old days it would have been a range war, with dynamite and rifles, but he has the rights issued by the Qld government so NSW etc can get stuffed !!

I believe that a river which is part of a system that crosses state borders should be controlled federally so that everyone gets a fair share.

macca,

Yes Kyoto gives Japan India and China a fair go. Aus and the US get nothing.

 

[2020hindsight]

Yep that all makes sense as well. Gotta feeling it makes more sense in Tasmania than in Sydney. Dont see how you can increase the reservoirs around Sydney with a flash of a magic wand. They've already raised the Reservoir walls as high as they can (stressing on extensions). And the combined effect of more population and lesser rainfall is just crippling things. Lateral thinking necessary I would think. Desalinators made sense to me, but that got flushed.

Not sure about a grid up and down the length of the coast. Probably no need to take the pipes further than "local solutions". A lot of water available between here and Newcastle, and Im sure they wouldnt mind sharing.

Not like California mate. The people in Sacramento (community minded, God fearing, NEEDING the Sacramento river to irrigate and make a livelihood) - you can imagine how they feel about sending massive percentages of water down to LA ( that great den of iniquity as they would claim).

Further south, the once great Rio Grande (Hoover dam etc) no longer even reaches the sea. But don't worry Nova Castrians, we wouldn't stop the Hunter reaching the sea

 

[krisbarry]

I am going to use a little language is my post but it is in good taste

Sydney flushes their toilets after pissing and shi_tting, then it flows down the Murray, where Melbourne drinks it. The Melbournites pi_ss and sh_it in it and the flow continues to Adelaide where we pump it into homes, drink it and pi_ss and sh_it it downstream to the Murray Mouth were it is nothing more than a trickle on a good year.

The same flow cycle continues for irrigators, garden wastes, rubbish, illegal commercial dumping etc.

So you can see what a filthy mess we have here.

 

[2020hindsight]

:topic :bs: [all of the above]
Here's a few lines I scribbled about Bourke, an imaginary old digger, and an imaginary flood (been a long time since they had one of those). In reality its more about the spirit of the diggers that is dying with them. That attitude is probably not relevant today - but cripes I love those diggers.

WHEN DUTY MEETS FLOOD
An order came through on the phone to young Jimmy,
Some Digger up Darling way - just back of Bourke -
"And hurry son, pack it and send it by sundown,
Without it I'm sunk 'cause the pump just won't work."

"It fits on the handle, the one that you push on,
The pulling side's perfect - I don't need the kit !
There's no sense in wasting 'cause wanting can follow,
The rest of it's pristine - I just need one bit"

"The price is outrageous - what, two dollars fifty! -
But Noah's on standby, my back's to the wall -
I think it's the model before the Big Mopper,
Before World War 1, son - when duty was all."

Now, floods had been raging for nigh on a fortnight,
The whole of the Darling was deeply immersed,
But Jimmy decided he'd do as was bidden -
What Diggers would do if the shoes were reversed.

He donned an ole trenchcoat and Wellies and waders,
He fitted his scooter with waterwings too,
Like James Bond's intrepid amphibious duckling,
He set off through rain that was falling like stew.

He ploughed through the creeks that were running a banker,
He raced along cliffedges, floods on all sides.
He dodged the great deluge of cascading debris,
He island-hopped treetrunks mid waterfall rides.

And after a night of incredible courage
And hundreds of miles through the torrents and churn,
Eureka - he shook the old hand of the Digger,
And ooohh - what a grin he received in return.

"Now sit with me son while I demonstrate will power
learnt pumping trenches at each bugle call."
....
He fitted the part, and he pumped till the flood
receded by inches, then metres, then mud,
with blisters on blisters he finally stud -
and smiled through loose dentures like bull chewing cud,
....
"A breeze after Flanders - no bullets no blood -
But that was when duty was all."

PS Just had a couple of thoughts.
1. I wouldnt like to be the one who had to tell those people out west that they should walk off their properties - that we werent prepared to add 2% tax to city incomes, and channel the money into improving the lot of the outback.
2. I wonder if there was another (justifiable) call to arms, what would be the percentage response from the cities, and what would be the percentage response from the bush?

 

[billhill]

whoa, all of a sudden our renewable energy powered desalination plant here in WA doesn't sound like such a stupid project.

 

[Smurf1976]

Yep that all makes sense as well. Gotta feeling it makes more sense in Tasmania than in Sydney. Dont see how you can increase the reservoirs around Sydney with a flash of a magic wand. They've already raised the Reservoir walls as high as they can (stressing on extensions). And the combined effect of more population and lesser rainfall is just crippling things. Lateral thinking necessary I would think. Desalinators made sense to me, but that got flushed.

Not sure about a grid up and down the length of the coast. Probably no need to take the pipes further than "local solutions". A lot of water available between here and Newcastle, and Im sure they wouldnt mind sharing.

All that needs to happen in Sydney is to add more supply to "the system". It doesn't matter how it's done (desalination, another dam somewhere in NSW, pipeline from Qld, tankers from Tas) as long as it adds bulk supply to the system. If the new supply is reliable then there's no need for additional storage. If the new supply is intermittent then storage is needed although that could be built anywhere - it doesn't have to be at the source of the water.

Contrary to what the Victorian government has being saying recently, there's no need to pump water directly into the storages in order to push the level up. You just pump the water into the supply network and that means you release less from the storages - they then rise naturally over time through having "positive expectancy" in investment terminology.

It's the exact same principle as how we push up the level in the storages in Tas by burning gas - the gas doesn't put water in the storages but the alternative supply of power means less flows out. Same principle and it works anywhere as long as there is at least some rain sometime (which in practice there is). Put more water or power into the system and the level in the long term storages will increase over time due to the reduced outflows being less than long term inflows.

Just like increasing your net wealth. Doesn't matter if it's through wages, investment, winning the lottery or whatever. Likewise doesn't matter if it's put in the bank, paid of the mortgage or invested in shares. It's an increase in the overall position either way.

 

[2020hindsight]

Sydney flushes their toilets after pissing and shi_tting, then it flows down the Murray, where Melbourne drinks it. The Melbournites pi_ss and sh_it in it and the flow continues to Adelaide where we ..., drink it .

Not sure you'd get a degree for geography here STC lol, I mean I know the Murray meanders, but its been a while since it went through Melbourne lol.

But DESPITE all that, I still love Coopers beer Just dont look at that cloudy brown stuff lol.
Ahhh - but I find the funniest thing is Tas, 10,150 people in the northern half drink that pristine James Boag stuff, 10,150 people in the southern half drink that pristine Cascade stuff, but all 20,300 would fight to the death defending their brand lol. Ahh but talk about clear water.

PS I think Smurf has been spoilt - should get out and see the real world lol.

 

[Smurf1976]

Not sure you'd get a degree for geography here STC lol, I mean I know the Murray meanders, but its been a while since it went through Melbourne lol.

But DESPITE all that, I still love Coopers beer Just dont look at that cloudy brown stuff lol.
Ahhh - but I find the funniest thing is Tas, 10,150 people in the northern half drink that pristine James Boag stuff, 10,150 people in the southern half drink that pristine Cascade stuff, but all 20,300 would fight to the death defending their brand lol. Ahh but talk about clear water.

PS I think Smurf has been spoilt - should get out and see the real world lol.

Let's stick to a polite discussion without the personal nonsense.

 

[2020hindsight]

Let's stick to a polite discussion without the personal nonsense.

specifiics mate - Ill respond - I cant for the life of me see what you would call impolite. I mean is it impersonal to suggest that the Murray and the famous Yarra should be a common river system lol.

PS Ahhh - you're talkin about the pristine Tas water . vs the water they use for Coopers ? ever wondered why Coopers started selling "Beer minus the water"? but then again ( rather than offend southaussies) - I hav to say that I really like Coopers "warts, crud and all"

PS Not every city has a river like the Derwent (Hobart) - or the Esk (Launceston) running through it - Launceston, sheesh what a ferocious torrent after rain !! - right there in the suburbs.!!

PS All due respect mate - but the rest of the country isnt having to balance the conflicting demands of power generation and irrigation - they are trying to get enough for their cattle or (worse) sheep to drink.

PS Gotta feeling we are both engineers - maybe we should sort this out over a beer - you might remember me - I won the yardglass competition at the engineers symposium in hobart in ... in ... -woops you werent even born maybe you wouldnt remember lol.

PS and FOR CH***T's sake dont take this personally !! I respect your opinions immensely. proactive , challenging, incisive, novel etc

PS I went to Tas for some construction work in 2002 - was allegedly a "drought" - the roads were closed half the time while the grass-cutters sorted out the 2 foot high grass along the sides of the roads lol - Flinders Is was buying up all the prize breeding beef that the rest of the country couldn't afford to keep due to the drought . At 1/10 of what they were worth. Mate - Tasmanians wouldn't know what a drought was !!

 

[Smurf1976]

Maybe I misinterpreted your post but I do think saying that people are spoilt and need to see the real world is a tad insulting. Anyway, back on topic...

We've said plenty about water and the drought, but what are we going to DO about it?

There are options for increasing rainfall. It would help mostly where there are storages since the effect is to increase rainfall mostly when there isn't already a drought. It could help quite a bit but it's by no means a total solution since it doesn't do much in conditions such as those seen recently when non-storage inflow rainfall is most needed.

Mainland Australia has 88% of the fresh water in this country, Tasmania has the other 12%. But there's no way that we're going to be able to afford some massive scheme to shift water from northern Australia or Tas to the farms where it's needed. At least not doing it with pipelines or concrete lined canals.

Urban water supply is pretty easy. If nothing else, just ship the stuff in from the north or from Tas in conventional oil tankers. Or build a desalination plant. A pretty easy problem to fix given the political will to do so. It is a matter of infrastructure just like roads, power etc.

Industrial processes are fairly easy too, just build the factories where there is water or build a pipeline. Water is just another consideration along with transport, raw materials, power, gas etc.

So, what we really have is an agricultural problem rather than a water problem per se. Water there is and we can get it to cities and industry but we can't get it on the farms. At least not in the quantities we're talking about. And if we did put huge volumes on the farms then we'd end up with salinity problems anyway.

So perhaps we need to be looking more at agriculture itself than water? Growing different things and growing them in different places. In some cases, not growing them at all.

Genetic engineering might have a role to play here, if the technology can be put to sensible use rather than producing crops that live on pesticides conveniently manufactured by the same company...

 

[Julia]

Smurf

You are suggesting Sydney's water problems could be partly solved by a pipeline from Queensland.

Where the hell is the stuff coming from to put in the pipeline?

Why are people having to let their gardens die if we have enough to send to Sydney???

Julia

 

[123enen]

the rest of the country isnt having to balance the conflicting demands of power generation and irrigation - they are trying to get enough for their cattle or (worse) sheep to drink.

At the risk of sounding callous... I don't buy it! At least not for ANIMAL farming.
You really think these animal farmers are having a hard time?
They are exporting heaps of this stuff to Japan / Canada etc. at very healthy / inflated prices /profits.

Why has beef etc. become so expensive to buy here in Aust?
Because they are selling it overseas and saying to us poor city smucks ... if you want it then pay top dollar... no fair go/ favours for you city slickers.

And then they have the nerve to ask city smuck taxpayers for financial support if things aren't so comfortable anymore, or in fact even now when they are doing quite well. How pathetic.

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf

You are suggesting Sydney's water problems could be partly solved by a pipeline from Queensland.

Where the hell is the stuff coming from to put in the pipeline?

Why are people having to let their gardens die if we have enough to send to Sydney???

Julia

I was thinking of North Queensland. There's quite a lot of water up there that isn't being used for anything. If nothing else, it would make sense to supply SE Queensland with some of it even if the pipeline wasn't extended to Sydney.

For that matter, I don't have any data but to my understanding there's plenty in northern NSW too. If that's correct then it raises some serious questions (lack of proper planning!) as to why Brisbane and Sydney both have water shortages.

 

[moses]

At the risk of sounding callous... I don't buy it! At least not for ANIMAL farming.
You really think these animal farmers are having a hard time?
They are exporting heaps of this stuff to Japan / Canada etc. at very healthy / inflated prices /profits.

Why has beef etc. become so expensive to buy here in Aust?
Because they are selling it overseas and saying to us poor city smucks ... if you want it then pay top dollar... no fair go/ favours for you city slickers.

And then they have the nerve to ask city smuck taxpayers for financial support if things aren't so comfortable anymore, or in fact even now when they are doing quite well. How pathetic.

Spoken like a truly selfish city nerd. For a start, it isn't stock (animals) that consume the bulk of the water, it is crops. Cotton being the worst culprit. Second, the price of beef is actually plummeting, because the drought means there isn't even enough water for the animals, and every farmer is selling. More to the point there hasn't been enough rain for the grass, and so the cattle feed is dying or non-existent. And the dams that the cattle drink out of are dry, nothing for cattle to drink. Unlike city folk, farms don't have piped water or government provided dams; they rely entirely on the rain, or underground water, or rivers that go through the farm.

So far as inflated prices go, thats a joke. Its all supply and demand, and droughts distort the market. Instead of eating grass, fodder has to be transported, supplements have to be bought. In short, the cost of feeding cattle goes up and up and up, hopefully to be recovered by high prices because everyone is experiencing the same. Hopefully...but not always. Soon your meat will be cheap because farmers are already selling their cattle at a loss to get something back, anything back, because dead and starving cows littered all over the farm don't do much for the income. And then when (if) it rains farmers will desperately try to buy and breed up their herds again, only to find everyone is doing the same. Guess what happens to prices?

City taxpayers?

At the end of the day, it is primary producers who are creating the wealth, which is why they are called "primary" producers. Everyone else is just value adding.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi Macca et al,

That huge on-farm water storage for cotton is at
Cubbie Station and right now he is hurting like
everybody else ..... but, if we were to fill him up with a
guaranteed annual supply from the north, then ONE
condition that could be imposed on him would be, that
he releases enough to reestablish a flow in the Darling
system ....

..... and that would make a lot of people happy,
downstream.

Another obvious storage area would be the lakes region
of Western Victoria !~!

So, we have the water and we have the storage, we
just need to put the infrastructure in place to transport
the water to the desired catchments.

-----

With regard to modifying our agricultural base, maybe
something may also be done about bringing some of the
production areas to the water, where it can be monitored
in an intensive irrigated cropping regime ..... anybody
that has worked in Libya can tell you that there's huge
circular areas of irrigated crops there, right on the edge
of the Sahara Desert .....

.... and would you believe it ... ??? It was Australian
technology that was used to develop those systems !~!

Abosolutely amazing, we can do it for other countries,
yet we can't help ourselves.

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... and if you want more water storage, let's fill up
the depleted Palm Valley gasfields in Central Oz
while we can, as insurance for years to come.

 

[123enen]

Second, the price of beef is actually plummeting, because the drought means there isn't even enough water for the animals, and every farmer is selling.

Soon your meat will be cheap because farmers are already selling their cattle at a loss to get something back, anything back, because dead and starving cows littered all over the farm don't do much for the income.

At the end of the day, it is primary producers who are creating the wealth, which is why they are called "primary" producers. Everyone else is just value adding.

You are kidding aren't you?

Around two-thirds of Australian beef production is exported. Demand for Australian beef has been strong from late 2003, mostly due to a lack of competition from the U.S. in South Korea and Japan due to mad cow concerns. Japan in late July lifted its import ban on U.S. beef, clearing the way for exports to resume. This is why prices are very gradually easing. Stock producers have been lapping it up for years getting world’s best prices with total disregard for the battler Aussie mum and dad trying to feed their families.

__________________________________________
Even the meat and livestock association doesn't try to fool us with this gloom and doom.

“Prospects for the Australian cattle industry remain bright despite the ongoing drought and imminent return of US beef to North Asia, according to Meat & Livestock Australia in its mid-year update of the Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections 2006, released today. “

“Cattle prices so far in 2006 have been higher than predicted in February, as a result of the further delays in the US return to North Asia, and despite the spreading of the drought to again cover the majority of the eastern states.

Overall, few changes have been necessary to MLA’s projections outlined in February, with the herd expanding by around 3 per cent/year in the short term, and beef supply still expected to rise by around 3 per cent in 2006, and 16 per cent by 2010, allowing for a modest lift in both exports and domestic consumption”

http://www.mla.com.au/TopicHierarch...to+bright+outlook+for+the+cattle+industry.htm

 

[2020hindsight]

Anyway, back on topic...

agreed

There are options for increasing rainfall. It would help mostly where there are storages since the effect is to increase rainfall mostly when there isn't already a drought. ...So, what we really have is an agricultural problem rather than a water problem per se.

"Increasing rainfall" ? maybe - needs careful management yes? not just to redistribute rainfall? Like, China "steals" rain by seeding clouds (silver iodide?) that they used to receive west of there. But you're right let's look at all the options. Good points about achieving this where there is storage - "brillliant!" as the Irishman said when offered a Guiness

As for Farming vs Grazing, sorry I have a natural empathy with animals - more inclined to share the pain of a skinny horse or a cow or sheep (no Im not a Kiwi lol) than a skinny cabbage. You know why the Kiwis call their sheep "arti" dont you? - listen carefully to the words of the haka lol. "Komarti Komarti etc".

And likewise I have less joy communicating with rice and cotton. It's a weakness I have - and my posts are made less representative and more vulnerable to discard on the grounds of bias, prejudice or irrelevance as a result. You're all no doubt right - the real cause lies there. agriculture! But the animals suffer as a result :

One thing I do know is that previously viable agricultural land (SE QLD) that used to require bores down 50 feet now have to go 500 feet - and even then there's b***** all water.

The problem aint easy thats for sure.! But interesting that it's made the news, and who knows, the pollies might even do something this time ? I think i agree that the Fed Govt has to coordinate - gotta be a step in the right direction. I mean, leave the states to their own devices, we end up with railway gauges that change at virtually every border

123enen, mate - have you any idea of the sort of feed bills that they pay to get through the dry times - those people you say are making a motsa pay 6 figure numbers per month for feed - for months on end !! Would you swap with them? (damned if I would) Why are so many leaving? Gotta feeling you're guessing friend.

 

[macca]

Gee we have solved the country's problems in a few days

Talking about capital cities, virtually all are on the coast except the big C.

All get plenty of rain BUT their catchments are inland, in NSW they want to spend 1.5 Billion on a desalination plant, if they use that money to give one million people a $1500 subsidy to put a water tank on and connect it to their sewer we are MUCH better off.

I know Brisbane have started it already, so lets do it every where.

Say a 5000litre tank on one million homes, only need about 12 mill of rain and all are full, that is a hell of a lot of drinking water not sucked out of the dams

Easy way to start fixing the problem IMO

 

[moses]

You are kidding aren't you?

Around two-thirds of Australian beef production is exported. Demand for Australian beef has been strong from late 2003, mostly due to a lack of competition from the U.S. in South Korea and Japan due to mad cow concerns. Japan in late July lifted its import ban on U.S. beef, clearing the way for exports to resume. This is why prices are very gradually easing. Stock producers have been lapping it up for years getting world’s best prices with total disregard for the battler Aussie mum and dad trying to feed their families.

Not at all, although this time it would be nice to be wrong.

In any case...why shouldn't farmers accept the best price they can?

Also, battler mum and dad are already subsidized more often than not (which I'm not criticising), but I doubt if you'll get far pushing for a special beef subsidy when at the supermarket any more than you'll get a banana subsidy.

At the end of the day, if farming is so outrageously profitable and producers are raking it in, then fewer of our best land and most productive farms would be broken up for weekenders and hobby farms for city folk made wealthy on the back of the property boom.