September 2024 DDD

[qldfrog]

Waking up, looking at US markets..Outch

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

Friday, September 6th, 2024

Usually, high-impact OPEC+ decisions trigger a notable reaction in the oil markets, but not this time. Sentiment has soured so much that the oil group’s decision to postpone the return of barrels they’ve cut in 2023 barely resonated at all, reinforcing fears that next year will see balances swinging heavily towards oversupply. As ICE Brent futures hover around $73 per barrel, oil prices are set to close this week at their lowest level since June 2023.

OPEC+ Delays Output Increase by Two Months. Citing worse-than-assumed economic data from China and the United States, eight members of OPEC+ that were scheduled to unwind their 2.2 million b/d of voluntary production cuts have agreed to delay their production hikes by two months.

Kazakhstan Requests Producers to Defy Compliance. According to Reuters, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry asked the shareholders of the supergiant Kashagan field to delay field maintenance planned for October to next year, citing gas shortages, negating the country’s OPEC+ compensation plan.

Libya’s Oilfields Remain Shut Despite Rumours. Oil tankers Kriti Samaria and Front Jaguar will load Libyan crude this week despite Haftar’s stated oil embargo in the African country, depleting remaining port stocks as production remains capped at around 600,000 b/d, half of Libya’s usual output.

Saudi and Emirati NOC Vie for Shell Assets. Middle Eastern oil-producing giant Saudi Aramco and ADNOC are reportedly competing to buy Shell’s (LON:SHEL) service stations in South Africa as the UK-based energy major seeks to garner $1 billion from its African divestment program.

Norway Seeks to End Climate Injunction on New Fields. Norway’s government has asked its appeals court to lift injunctions against three oil and gas fields operated by Aker BP and Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), in place since January after a ruling found that the state failed to fully assess their climate impact.

Colombia’s Diesel Protests Disrupt Supply Chains. After Colombia’s Petro government ended a diesel price subsidy that kept fuel prices stable for four years, protests have erupted across the country including attacks on pipelines, with state oil firm Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) warning of oil output fallout.

Indian Major Seeks Approval For New Projects in Venezuela. India’s state-owned ONGC Videsh (NSE:ONGC) is seeking US regulatory approval to operate two new projects in Venezuela, citing a similar permission to Chevron (NYSE:CVX), to help it recover a pending dividend of more than $500 million.

ExxonMobil Keeps on Drilling in Guyana. Following the sixth FID of US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) in Guyana’s prolific Stabroek block, the Texas-based producer started appraisal drilling at its seventh oil project, the Hammerhead project that is believed to produce up to 190,000 b/d from 2029.

African Oil Producer Eyes New Routes. South Sudan’s output remains heavily curbed after the ongoing civil war in Sudan blocked its only pipeline route, prompting the country to invite China’s CNPC to develop an alternative pipeline to Djibouti via Ethiopia, avoiding its northern neighbour altogether.

Argentina’s Star Performer Sheds Lithium Assets. Argentina’s state-run oil firm YPF (NYSE:YPF), up 45% in 2024 to date, is considering a sale of its lithium unit as part of a sweeping divestment drive that will see it streamline investment into the Vaca Muerta shale patch, only three years after its creation.

European Carmakers Dial Down EV Ambitions. Europe’s leading carmakers Volkswagen and Volvo have corrected their EV strategies to the downside, with the former closing EV operations in Europe due to slower demand and the latter giving up on a strict mandate of producing only emissions-free cars by 2030.

DoE Grants First LNG Export Approval Since Biden Ban. The US Department of Energy authorized LNG developer New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) to export LNG from its Altamira LNG offshore plant in Mexico to non-FTA countries, the first approval of its kind since he Biden administration halted the permitting process.

Venezuelan Oil Exports Soar to 4-Year High. Venezuela’s oil and fuel exports in August rose to their highest in more than four years, hitting 885,000 b/d or 62% higher year-on-year, defying the reimposition of US sanctions as production from JVs with co-operated by Chevron and Repsol continue to edge higher.

So I was a buyer of XLE today. I also covered some NVDA.

The no reaction to falling price in reaction to continued oil cuts makes no sense. While POO may fall a little further, much further will see shale oil production start to be shuttered. That's a big problem that could lead to higher (much) down the road.

Look at the energy required by Big Tech. You think wind, solar, etc are going to fill that demand? LOL.





The issue of immigrant jobs is that they are low paid and simply don't move the tax needle.

Taxes, 90% odd come from stock market returns, ie. higher market, more stock options awarded, cashed in and taxed. No-one gives a toss if you work in McDonald's or clean office buildings.

So data showing that the majority of jobs are these low paying jobs...does not excite the market.





Low CAPEX means lower productivity. BAD. That 7 companies are spending...so what.






What goes up, always comes down. Gravity aka competition.

So I have started reading Mr Chipp's recommendation. So far it is essentially Popperarian in it's recommendation or analysis. Which is a good thing.

Market is getting spanked again.

I'll have a week's summary in due course, but an ugly day, attributed to the UE data.

That unwinding of the yield curve inversion, could be another positive data point for it.

Now if we do head into a recession, the deficits will explode higher. Yellen and the Treasury will be screaming for the Fed to really cut rates back to ZIRP and NIRP as funding for UE will require huge sales of UST.

Who exactly are going to buy all this shite?

The Fed. QE (probably called something else and hidden) will make a return.

Meanwhile, fighting 2 proxy hot wars (Ukraine, Middle East) and an economic cold war (China) will display the true weakness of the US.

Hold gold.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So some of the stuff that I look at on a daily basis:

So this one is a market close update, 1 day behind the action:



You can see that they (probably degenerate retail gamblers) bought the dip yesterday. Possibly 0DTE. These are now firm favourites and make up quite a bit of volume.



Bond market vol. Rising. BAD.



Credit spreads, widening. Bad. Ties in with the $MOVE.



Contemporaneous. Vol. rising.



Where gold and copper see interest rates needing to be, as opposed to Mr Powell. Now of course Mr Powell has an agenda that is markedly different to the market. Mr Powell is fighting an economic war against China...and getting handed his arse (see the gold thread for far more detail).

Today the various sectors:

All the defensive sectors at the top with lowest losses.



Tech. getting spanked.



For the week, same story all week.

The warning was hiding in plain sight:



Put all the pieces together and caution was always warranted:



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Market closed for the week




While Tech was the obvious loser, financials are also showing weakness. Not a good sign.



BTC still follows the QQQ and Tech.



The market can only move up, sideways or down. Lots of technical damage done this week.



Looking out to Oct. already.






Mr FFF

The Technicals Setting Up For Potential Flush Out​

Dr. Fly Sat Sep 7, 2024 1:37pm EST Leave a comment


Inside Stocklabs we have mean reversion algorithms that measures greed and fear across all asset classes and stocks and measures the returns of them after achieving extreme levels. We are presently OVERSOLD on the 12 month algorithms; but the data is mixed.
First I want you to see the level of the OS at 1.56. The oversold levels change with markets. For example, during a bad bear market, the OS will be deep, as low as 0.9; but during great bull runs it could be shallow, above 1.6.



If you look back to 2022, during the down 32% year for markets, the OS was at 1.35.



Here is the backtest data for this signal over 5 years. Although the returns are all positive, you can clearly see it starts to pick up in earnest after the 5th trading day.



This dreary technical pattern screams danger and because of that, caution should be exercised. By that I mean raising some cash, hedging via puts or inverse ETFs, waiting it out until some green candles appear.



Yes markets ultimately trade higher and yes this rout isn’t rooted in anything substantial; but it is happening and the seasonality of it happening is worthy of note.

For example: the $SMH is already down 11.7% for September. How does that compare to previous bad Septembers? Lucky for you, I have the data.

Note that all of the other years when the $SMH lost double digits it was in bear market years: 2022, 2008, 2000, 2001, 2002.



Clearly, this sell off is extreme in the context of historical declines and we all know the semis were very overvalued. But overvalued or not, these sort of declines are normally not sustainable lest paired with bad news. Well, where is that bad news? My sense is, this squall will end soon and markets will jump sharply, so try to stay in the game and manage your risk until we get the turn.

So SMH



Now I covered some NVDA on Friday as it has reached a POSSIBLE short term bottom. Obviously NVDA is a poster child for SMH.

See yesterday's chart on PUT/CALL ratio. This chart gives me pause in that the PUTS have not yet reached a point where a flippe-floppe in the market becomes a higher probability event.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Worth a watch:



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

An article on AI: Full: https://www.honest-broker.com/p/eleven-predictions-heres-what-ai

What a crazy time to be alive.

The hot fashion trend is to forget to wear your pants. On planes, bros now stare into blank screens for the entire trip. Folks have started drinking garlic beer and eating ketchup-flavored candy bars.

Even celebrities are acting out. Italian bombshell Isabella Rossellini is now a herder on a sheep farm. Johnny Depp works as a bartender. Kanye West is communicating telepathically with car thieves.

The world has gone mad. But nothing is as crazy as the AI news.

Every day those AI bots and their human posse of true believers get wilder and bolder—and recently they’ve been flexing like body builders on Muscle Beach.

The results are sometimes hard to believe. But all this is true:

• The movie trailer for Francis Ford Coppola’s new film got pulled from theaters because “the studio had been duped by an AI bot.”
• Just one person in North Carolina was able to steal $10 million in royalties from human musicians with AI-generated songs. They got billions of streams.
• The promoters of National Novel Writing Month angrily declared that opposition to AI books is classist and ableist.
• Children are now routinely using AI to make nude photos of other youngsters.
• Nearly half of the safety team at OpenAI left their jobs—and almost nobody seems to care or notice.
• AI tech titan Nvidia lost a half trillion in market capitalization over the course of just a few days—including the largest daily decline in the history of capitalism.
• By pure coincidence, Nvidia’s CEO sold $633 million worth of stock in the weeks leading up to the current decline.

We truly live in interesting times—which is one of the three apocryphal Chinese curses.

(The other two, according to Terry Pratchett, are: “May you come to the attention of those in authority” and “May the gods give you everything you ask for.” By tradition, the last is the most dangerous of all.)

I get some credit for anticipating this. On August 4, I made the following prediction:

But it’s going to get even more interesting, and very soon. That’s because the next step in AI has arrived—the unleashing of AI agents.

And like the gods, these AI agents will give us everything we ask for.

Up until now, AI was all talk and no action. These charming bots answered your questions, and spewed out text, but were easy to ignore.

That’s now changing. AI agents will go out in the world and do things. That’s their new mission.

It’s like giving unreliable teens the keys to the family car. Up until now we’ve just had to deal with these resident deadbeats talking back, but now they are going to smash up everything in their path.

But AI agents will be even worse than the most foolhardy teen. That’s because there will be millions of these unruly bots on our digital highways.

---

We got a glimpse of this future last week, when the company Altera announced that it had unleashed one thousand autonomous AI agents on to a Minecraft server.

Almost immediately things got very strange.

In this AI agent community, the biggest winner was a priest, who created a huge religious cult—but by bribing people to join. In another simulation, Democrats and Republicans battled via conflicting constitutions driven by ideology (not rights, which are boring and passé in the digital world).

But it could get much worse—in an earlier simulation, AI revealed a disturbing tendency to resolve conflicts with nuclear weapons. (Don’t say I didn’t warn you.)

The Minecraft simulation also demonstrated how AI agents can change their minds at the drop of the hat—as the successful cult bribing incident suggests. In other instances, a farmer needed for the food supply decided spontaneously to give up agriculture and go on an adventure. In another instance, an entire village stopped working because of a single missing bot.

Right now this is happening in test environments. But soon AI agents will be changing the real world—and at a pace none of us are prepared for.

---

So let me offer eleven predictions for our interesting times. Or maybe I should call them warnings. You be the judge.

1. Stop worrying about AI taking over. It’s the people who own the AI who pose the biggest threat.
​

I still hear foolish predictions about some big computer taking over the world—like that scene from 2001: A Space Odyssey.

Sorry, but it won’t happen that way. Those big Sumo-sized computers aren’t the threat. It’s the people who own them you need to worry about. That’s why most of the debate about the threat coming from AI is worthless.

Yes, there is a threat. But it’s very much a human-driven one. Psychology and game theory will tell us more about how this plays out than any tech knowledge.

In fact, tech people may be the least prepared for these changes, because they’re still thinking in terms of software code, not human behavior.

---

2. You also have to stop thinking of AI as a single force. Hundreds of governments and corporations are already competing in building their AI empires.
​

AI will soon turn into a plural noun. Governments, corporations and other entities (hackers, billionaires, scammers, etc.) will each have their own AI agents—empowered by the largest computers in the history of the world, sucking up juice from the electricity grid the way Popeye swallows spinach.

3. We will soon be living in an AI war zone—because competing AI agents will constantly battle each other for control (often over us).
​

We will look back fondly at the simple days when the bots just talked to us. Soon they will be big and strong, and start making demands—or just do whatever they want without asking.

With so many conflicting AI programs ramping up, the bots will inevitably go to war with each other. As soon as they are given agency and responsibility, battles will ensue.

Like gunslingers in a Western town, they will shoot it out—metaphorically, and possibly in real terms.

Here’s my advice: Try not to be collateral damage.

---

4. Companies will launch stealth attacks on their own core talent base.
​

Can you imagine Hollywood studios conspiring to destroy movie stars? Or record labels putting music stars out of business? Or newspapers getting rid of all of their journalists?

It’s coming—although they can’t breathe a word of this in public…at least not yet.


Ted Gioia28 Jul
Here’s a rumor from the entertainment industry. But it should be no surprise because this has been the plan from the start.
Source: crazydaysandnights.net/2024/07/blind-it…

50
13
6

No creative professional who works for a corporation is safe. Once creative people were assets, but in the new AI economy they are just liabilities.

The recent hardball attack by Adobe on the photographers and artists who helped establish the company’s dominance is a case study in how this plays out. Be on the lookout for more battles of this sort—but with even higher stakes.

---

5. The bots will actually get dumber, despite trillions of dollars in investment. This huge spending actually accelerates the degradation.
​

The decline is already evident.

Even OpenAI admits that users will notice “tasks where the performance gets worse” in its latest generation chatbot. Many already see troubling instances of bots getting lazier and dumber. And catastrophic failures are increasingly common.

This isn’t a flaw in AI, but a limitation in the training materials. The highest quality training sources have already been exhausted—so AI is now learning from the worst possible inputs: Reddit posts, 4Chan, tweets, emails, and other garbage.

It’s going to get worse. Experts believe that AI will have used up all human-made training inputs by 2026. At that point, AI can learn from other bots, but this leads to a massive degradation in output quality.

In other words, AI will soon hit a brick wall—and face a dumbness crisis of epic proportions. That will happen around the same time that AI will have pervaded every sphere of society.

Are you worried? You should be.

---

6. AI will create more disruption than profit.
​

AI has been a lousy investment. Even before the recent sell-off, AI investment funds were losing money. And companies have learned how hard it is to generate profits from AI—or even successfully implement it in their business model.

Some experts fear that AI benefits may never justify the huge amount spent on the tech.

But companies are still spending like drunken sailors on AI baubles, despite all the disappointments. And they will be so desperate to justify this spending spree to their shareholders that they will grasp at any possible cost savings.

So I expect half-baked implementation plans—with lots of fired workers and annoyed customers. The AI situation at many companies is comparable to a Hollywood studio that has made a bunch of lousy movies that fare poorly at test screenings. They still will release them, no matter what.

That’s how companies often view sunk investments of this sort. They know they stink—but they hold their nose and dump them on the marketplace anyway.

We have at least a couple years of this stinkaroo party to look forward to, as companies make desperate moves to generate returns from AI investments. The payoff may be uncertain, but the pain is a sure thing.

---

7. A few real people will benefit—but (surprise!) not tech workers, who are the most vulnerable of all.
​

AI will replace jobs—but the first casualties will be digital workers, especially software developers. AI is most reliable in writing software code, because it is itself software code.

The more analytical and rule-based the job, the more likely that a bot will do it. But AI is clumsy in those gray areas where trade-offs can’t be quantified, so…

---

8. The actual winners will be holistic thinkers and empathetic individuals with human skills.
​

The important things in life can’t be quantified and run on a computer—I’m talking about love, care, trust, friendship, compassion, responsibility, family ties, kindness, dedication, faith, hope, courage, humility, respect, and human decency.

AI can’t deliver those. It merely pretends. And the pretending might fool some people, but feels like an insult to those who know better.

If you really want these qualities—and not a bot playing a part—you will turn to genuine human beings. And in those cases where trade-offs must be made between these human intangibles, AI is not only unreliable, but actually dangerous.

---

9. But these caring human agents will be vastly outnumbered by malicious and deceptive AI—which is proliferating at warp speed.
​

AI pollution is everywhere. Just try finding something real amid the fake images, fake articles, fake books, fake recording artists, fake videos, fake sources, fake quotes, fake people, fake facts, fake everything.

That’s why the word artificial is embedded in the very name for AI.

By the way, this pollution is an inevitable result of the dominant AI strategy which is (always) to flood the market with artificial stuff by the thousands or millions. AI is thus the opposite of the artisan, who takes care in creating each individual object.

Don’t expect this to change. So the chief beneficiaries of AI will continue to be scammers, spammers, shammers, and other purveyors of fakery—but on a much larger scale than we currently experience.

---

10. Even when AI can adequately handle a job, people will pay more for a human being. This will soon become a status symbol.
​

Here’s something you can actually measure—namely how much people will pay for the real thing.

Consider the case of laboratory-made diamonds.


Gurwinder5d
This is why AI art won't ever be as valuable as human art; people don't just buy a product, they also buy its provenance (story).

91
21
15

Even if something artificial is indistinguishable from an authentic original, consumers still want the real thing.

I could give many other examples. But here’s the bottom line: Reality is intrinsically superior to phoniness.

So I fully expect that social status will soon accrue to discerning consumers who continue to work with human beings whenever possible, and deliberately avoid AI.

I expect to be in their number. I am confident that many of you will join me.

---

11. AI will create an existential crisis of epic proportions, as all the dividing lines that are foundational to society—between reality and deception, truth and lies, fact and error—collapse.
​

This is not a small matter.

People have been warned, but they still can’t conceive how bad it’s going to get. Even their own reality as human beings will be under attack. Soon we will all be seeking personhood credentials, and forced to create “safe words” to use with family members to prove our very existence.

In the old days, existential crises were reserved for French intellectuals sitting at their Paris cafés—but now the angst will go mainstream.

Most people don’t worry a lot about the difference between truth and falsehood. They think that’s just a matter for philosophers or priests or dreamers. All they care about are results.

But those hard-headed folks (who are typically no-nonsense empiricists) will be the most shell-shocked by what’s coming down the pike. Their cherished empirical reality is about to collapse.

---

Most of this drama will have played out within the next 24 months. But it will be a wild ride.

In the meantime, hold on to the real. You’re going to need it—and it will be the ultimate scarce resource in the interesting days ahead.

Interesting.





Full: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/09/if-the-prices-are-wrong-you-should-be-rich/

Markets (obviously) aren't efficient. Markets are wrong often.

Who cares. The point is to get paid.

Which goes to the heart of why and how you engage with markets. Your edge. Your plan.

Your edge must start with facts. Proven facts. Here are 2 facts for you about markets:

(a) markets go up, markets go down and sometimes for a while they go nowhere; and

(b) the future is unknown.

Those 2 facts are the basis of my edge. The conclusion that I draw, which is not a fact, but rather a belief is that markets are far more random than efficient. They can go anywhere on the drop of a dime.

Therefore directional trading is a gamble.

Now you enter into the field probabilities. Read up on this. The subject is vast.

Technical analysis is at it's heart probabilities. Some has evidence that supports its application. Some does not and simply relies on luck.

Because of my 2 facts, I opted for market neutral.

Some examples: https://www.google.com/search?q=mar...me..69i57.10843j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

So why bother with charts, indicators, etc?

Because you still have to manage the trades: close, cover, sell, etc. There are better points to do this than just randomly when you feel like it. Maximum profits are at tops and bottoms of price movements. If you can pick more of these than you miss, you make lots of cash. So there is no escaping the battle against random outcomes, pick your poison(s). Hence my broad interest in macro, fundamentals and charts.

jog on
duc



https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...a8a49-7732-4159-a113-c7cc9dc425fb_363x270.gif

 

[Dr.Stock]

An article on AI: Full: https://www.honest-broker.com/p/eleven-predictions-heres-what-ai

What a crazy time to be alive.

The hot fashion trend is to forget to wear your pants. On planes, bros now stare into blank screens for the entire trip. Folks have started drinking garlic beer and eating ketchup-flavored candy bars.

Even celebrities are acting out. Italian bombshell Isabella Rossellini is now a herder on a sheep farm. Johnny Depp works as a bartender. Kanye West is communicating telepathically with car thieves.

The world has gone mad. But nothing is as crazy as the AI news.

Every day those AI bots and their human posse of true believers get wilder and bolder—and recently they’ve been flexing like body builders on Muscle Beach.

The results are sometimes hard to believe. But all this is true:

• The movie trailer for Francis Ford Coppola’s new film got pulled from theaters because “the studio had been duped by an AI bot.”
• Just one person in North Carolina was able to steal $10 million in royalties from human musicians with AI-generated songs. They got billions of streams.
• The promoters of National Novel Writing Month angrily declared that opposition to AI books is classist and ableist.
• Children are now routinely using AI to make nude photos of other youngsters.
• Nearly half of the safety team at OpenAI left their jobs—and almost nobody seems to care or notice.
• AI tech titan Nvidia lost a half trillion in market capitalization over the course of just a few days—including the largest daily decline in the history of capitalism.
• By pure coincidence, Nvidia’s CEO sold $633 million worth of stock in the weeks leading up to the current decline.

We truly live in interesting times—which is one of the three apocryphal Chinese curses.

(The other two, according to Terry Pratchett, are: “May you come to the attention of those in authority” and “May the gods give you everything you ask for.” By tradition, the last is the most dangerous of all.)

I get some credit for anticipating this. On August 4, I made the following prediction:

But it’s going to get even more interesting, and very soon. That’s because the next step in AI has arrived—the unleashing of AI agents.

And like the gods, these AI agents will give us everything we ask for.

Up until now, AI was all talk and no action. These charming bots answered your questions, and spewed out text, but were easy to ignore.

That’s now changing. AI agents will go out in the world and do things. That’s their new mission.

It’s like giving unreliable teens the keys to the family car. Up until now we’ve just had to deal with these resident deadbeats talking back, but now they are going to smash up everything in their path.

But AI agents will be even worse than the most foolhardy teen. That’s because there will be millions of these unruly bots on our digital highways.

---

We got a glimpse of this future last week, when the company Altera announced that it had unleashed one thousand autonomous AI agents on to a Minecraft server.

Almost immediately things got very strange.

In this AI agent community, the biggest winner was a priest, who created a huge religious cult—but by bribing people to join. In another simulation, Democrats and Republicans battled via conflicting constitutions driven by ideology (not rights, which are boring and passé in the digital world).

But it could get much worse—in an earlier simulation, AI revealed a disturbing tendency to resolve conflicts with nuclear weapons. (Don’t say I didn’t warn you.)

The Minecraft simulation also demonstrated how AI agents can change their minds at the drop of the hat—as the successful cult bribing incident suggests. In other instances, a farmer needed for the food supply decided spontaneously to give up agriculture and go on an adventure. In another instance, an entire village stopped working because of a single missing bot.

Right now this is happening in test environments. But soon AI agents will be changing the real world—and at a pace none of us are prepared for.

---

So let me offer eleven predictions for our interesting times. Or maybe I should call them warnings. You be the judge.

1. Stop worrying about AI taking over. It’s the people who own the AI who pose the biggest threat.​

​

I still hear foolish predictions about some big computer taking over the world—like that scene from 2001: A Space Odyssey.

Sorry, but it won’t happen that way. Those big Sumo-sized computers aren’t the threat. It’s the people who own them you need to worry about. That’s why most of the debate about the threat coming from AI is worthless.

Yes, there is a threat. But it’s very much a human-driven one. Psychology and game theory will tell us more about how this plays out than any tech knowledge.

In fact, tech people may be the least prepared for these changes, because they’re still thinking in terms of software code, not human behavior.

---

2. You also have to stop thinking of AI as a single force. Hundreds of governments and corporations are already competing in building their AI empires.​

​

AI will soon turn into a plural noun. Governments, corporations and other entities (hackers, billionaires, scammers, etc.) will each have their own AI agents—empowered by the largest computers in the history of the world, sucking up juice from the electricity grid the way Popeye swallows spinach.

3. We will soon be living in an AI war zone—because competing AI agents will constantly battle each other for control (often over us).​

​

We will look back fondly at the simple days when the bots just talked to us. Soon they will be big and strong, and start making demands—or just do whatever they want without asking.

With so many conflicting AI programs ramping up, the bots will inevitably go to war with each other. As soon as they are given agency and responsibility, battles will ensue.

Like gunslingers in a Western town, they will shoot it out—metaphorically, and possibly in real terms.

Here’s my advice: Try not to be collateral damage.

---

4. Companies will launch stealth attacks on their own core talent base.​

​

Can you imagine Hollywood studios conspiring to destroy movie stars? Or record labels putting music stars out of business? Or newspapers getting rid of all of their journalists?

It’s coming—although they can’t breathe a word of this in public…at least not yet.

View attachment 183979
Ted Gioia28 Jul
Here’s a rumor from the entertainment industry. But it should be no surprise because this has been the plan from the start.
Source: crazydaysandnights.net/2024/07/blind-it…
View attachment 183980
50
13
6

No creative professional who works for a corporation is safe. Once creative people were assets, but in the new AI economy they are just liabilities.

The recent hardball attack by Adobe on the photographers and artists who helped establish the company’s dominance is a case study in how this plays out. Be on the lookout for more battles of this sort—but with even higher stakes.

---

5. The bots will actually get dumber, despite trillions of dollars in investment. This huge spending actually accelerates the degradation.​

​

The decline is already evident.

Even OpenAI admits that users will notice “tasks where the performance gets worse” in its latest generation chatbot. Many already see troubling instances of bots getting lazier and dumber. And catastrophic failures are increasingly common.

This isn’t a flaw in AI, but a limitation in the training materials. The highest quality training sources have already been exhausted—so AI is now learning from the worst possible inputs: Reddit posts, 4Chan, tweets, emails, and other garbage.

It’s going to get worse. Experts believe that AI will have used up all human-made training inputs by 2026. At that point, AI can learn from other bots, but this leads to a massive degradation in output quality.

In other words, AI will soon hit a brick wall—and face a dumbness crisis of epic proportions. That will happen around the same time that AI will have pervaded every sphere of society.

Are you worried? You should be.

---

6. AI will create more disruption than profit.​

​

AI has been a lousy investment. Even before the recent sell-off, AI investment funds were losing money. And companies have learned how hard it is to generate profits from AI—or even successfully implement it in their business model.

Some experts fear that AI benefits may never justify the huge amount spent on the tech.

But companies are still spending like drunken sailors on AI baubles, despite all the disappointments. And they will be so desperate to justify this spending spree to their shareholders that they will grasp at any possible cost savings.

So I expect half-baked implementation plans—with lots of fired workers and annoyed customers. The AI situation at many companies is comparable to a Hollywood studio that has made a bunch of lousy movies that fare poorly at test screenings. They still will release them, no matter what.

That’s how companies often view sunk investments of this sort. They know they stink—but they hold their nose and dump them on the marketplace anyway.

We have at least a couple years of this stinkaroo party to look forward to, as companies make desperate moves to generate returns from AI investments. The payoff may be uncertain, but the pain is a sure thing.

---

7. A few real people will benefit—but (surprise!) not tech workers, who are the most vulnerable of all.​

​

AI will replace jobs—but the first casualties will be digital workers, especially software developers. AI is most reliable in writing software code, because it is itself software code.

The more analytical and rule-based the job, the more likely that a bot will do it. But AI is clumsy in those gray areas where trade-offs can’t be quantified, so…

---

8. The actual winners will be holistic thinkers and empathetic individuals with human skills.​

​

The important things in life can’t be quantified and run on a computer—I’m talking about love, care, trust, friendship, compassion, responsibility, family ties, kindness, dedication, faith, hope, courage, humility, respect, and human decency.

AI can’t deliver those. It merely pretends. And the pretending might fool some people, but feels like an insult to those who know better.

If you really want these qualities—and not a bot playing a part—you will turn to genuine human beings. And in those cases where trade-offs must be made between these human intangibles, AI is not only unreliable, but actually dangerous.

---

9. But these caring human agents will be vastly outnumbered by malicious and deceptive AI—which is proliferating at warp speed.​

​

AI pollution is everywhere. Just try finding something real amid the fake images, fake articles, fake books, fake recording artists, fake videos, fake sources, fake quotes, fake people, fake facts, fake everything.

That’s why the word artificial is embedded in the very name for AI.

By the way, this pollution is an inevitable result of the dominant AI strategy which is (always) to flood the market with artificial stuff by the thousands or millions. AI is thus the opposite of the artisan, who takes care in creating each individual object.

Don’t expect this to change. So the chief beneficiaries of AI will continue to be scammers, spammers, shammers, and other purveyors of fakery—but on a much larger scale than we currently experience.

---

10. Even when AI can adequately handle a job, people will pay more for a human being. This will soon become a status symbol.​

​

Here’s something you can actually measure—namely how much people will pay for the real thing.

Consider the case of laboratory-made diamonds.

View attachment 183981
Gurwinder5d
This is why AI art won't ever be as valuable as human art; people don't just buy a product, they also buy its provenance (story).
View attachment 183982
91
21
15
Even if something artificial is indistinguishable from an authentic original, consumers still want the real thing.

I could give many other examples. But here’s the bottom line: Reality is intrinsically superior to phoniness.

So I fully expect that social status will soon accrue to discerning consumers who continue to work with human beings whenever possible, and deliberately avoid AI.

I expect to be in their number. I am confident that many of you will join me.

---

11. AI will create an existential crisis of epic proportions, as all the dividing lines that are foundational to society—between reality and deception, truth and lies, fact and error—collapse.​

​

This is not a small matter.

People have been warned, but they still can’t conceive how bad it’s going to get. Even their own reality as human beings will be under attack. Soon we will all be seeking personhood credentials, and forced to create “safe words” to use with family members to prove our very existence.

In the old days, existential crises were reserved for French intellectuals sitting at their Paris cafés—but now the angst will go mainstream.

Most people don’t worry a lot about the difference between truth and falsehood. They think that’s just a matter for philosophers or priests or dreamers. All they care about are results.

But those hard-headed folks (who are typically no-nonsense empiricists) will be the most shell-shocked by what’s coming down the pike. Their cherished empirical reality is about to collapse.

---

Most of this drama will have played out within the next 24 months. But it will be a wild ride.

In the meantime, hold on to the real. You’re going to need it—and it will be the ultimate scarce resource in the interesting days ahead.

Interesting.

View attachment 183977View attachment 183976View attachment 183975View attachment 183974View attachment 183973View attachment 183972View attachment 183971View attachment 183970

View attachment 183978

Full: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/09/if-the-prices-are-wrong-you-should-be-rich/

Markets (obviously) aren't efficient. Markets are wrong often.

Who cares. The point is to get paid.

Which goes to the heart of why and how you engage with markets. Your edge. Your plan.

Your edge must start with facts. Proven facts. Here are 2 facts for you about markets:

(a) markets go up, markets go down and sometimes for a while they go nowhere; and

(b) the future is unknown.

Those 2 facts are the basis of my edge. The conclusion that I draw, which is not a fact, but rather a belief is that markets are far more random than efficient. They can go anywhere on the drop of a dime.

Therefore directional trading is a gamble.

Now you enter into the field probabilities. Read up on this. The subject is vast.

Technical analysis is at it's heart probabilities. Some has evidence that supports its application. Some does not and simply relies on luck.

Because of my 2 facts, I opted for market neutral.

Some examples: https://www.google.com/search?q=mar...me..69i57.10843j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

So why bother with charts, indicators, etc?

Because you still have to manage the trades: close, cover, sell, etc. There are better points to do this than just randomly when you feel like it. Maximum profits are at tops and bottoms of price movements. If you can pick more of these than you miss, you make lots of cash. So there is no escaping the battle against random outcomes, pick your poison(s). Hence my broad interest in macro, fundamentals and charts.

jog on
duc



https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/486a8a49-7732-4159-a113-c7cc9dc425fb_363x270.gif

... great stuff Duc.
Re the AI and the net etc...and so one day they, the masses, returned to a thing called "a library".

 

[qldfrog]

... great stuff Duc.
Re the AI and the net etc...and so one day they, the masses, returned to a thing called "a library".

Nah, they will not be able to read more than 3 words in a row let alone a sentence and by that time all the books will have been doctored or abridged ..digital only
Just need a pretext to discard paper editions: illness, whale strangling on a second hand floating Morisset paperback...
The interesting bit is the ai self feeding on own ai generated data for training and getting rubbish
The loop does not work....

 

[Dr.Stock]

Nah, they will not be able to read more than 3 words in a row let alone a sentence and by that time all the books will have been doctored or abridged ..digital only
Just need a pretext to discard paper editions: illness, whale strangling on a second hand floating Morisset paperback...
The interesting bit is the ai self feeding on own ai generated data for training and getting rubbish
The loop does not work....

Agree
Interesting 10 years coming up
Burn the computers
Farenheit 452

 

[divs4ever]

Agree
Interesting 10 years coming up
Burn the computers
Farenheit 452

computers tend to malfunction at much lower temperatures than that

in fact in might be the silver-lining of Global Warming , should it actually occur , most ( large ) computers seem to have issues at over 120 degrees Farenheit ( roughly 50 degrees C ) without a fairly hefty amount of extra cooling

now sure the storage ( disks , drives, sticks ) are fairly robust as are the computers WHEN TURNED OFF

but then the data/information is not so readily accessible

 

[ducati916]

From JC

Did you hear about the massive top in Semiconductors? Everyone is talking about it on the internets. So it must be true. Seems the easy call here to make is to say "that was it". The Semiconductor story and the bull market as we know it is over...'

​

One of the things they teach you in the first week of Technical Analysis kindergarten is that infamous Head & Shoulders top. The reason this is so popular is because it is "easy" to recognize. You have a left "shoulder", followed by a higher high (head), and completed with a lower high, forming the "right shoulder". Once the "neckline", represented by these gray shaded lines above, gets broken, the whole house of cards collapses. Or so we're taught. But here's the thing. Asset prices trend. Massive topping formations are much more rare. In most cases, particularly during bull markets, these sorts of formations tend to resolve higher, and these "massive tops" are just figments of traders' imaginations. This could very well be a historic top and selling opportunity in Semiconductors. It could. And that's the beauty of Technical Analysis. It's not that this HAS to be a top in Semiconductors just because a pattern might appear a certain way. It could be. And you have the right to interpret it that way and bet accordingly. So is that the bet that you're making? Do these massive tops complete and the whole thing is over? Or is this just a normal consolidation, within an ongoing secular uptrend in a leading sector? How are you playing that conclusion? These are the things I like to think about and hope it adds value to your thought process as well. It's incredibly therapeutic for me to write all these thoughts down, and for that I'm very grateful for your support. So who likes/uses Head & Shoulders analysis? JC is correct, it does seem to be all over the internets currently. My chart looks a little different: Making a tradable low. Might be a new trend or just a bear bounce. Either way I would expect a move higher from here.

Last word, Mr FFF:






jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

Hedge funds and other money managers have turned the most bearish on crude ever since the CFTC started to publish information on market positioning, with Brent and WTI net longs totaling a mere 139,242 lots in the week ended September 3.

- As the oil market gathered in Singapore this week for the annual Appec conference, Trafigura head of oil trading Ben Luckock said oil would dip into the 60s soon, depressed by weakening demand in China.

- US investment Citi lowered its 2025 price forecast to a mere 60 per barrel, prompting a general downward revision of outlooks as Morgan Stanley and the Bank of America both slashed its expectations to $75 per barrel.

- Crude oil futures could potentially flip into contango over the upcoming period as the ICE Brent 36-month spread between the November 2024 and November 2027 contracts shrank to a mere $2 per barrel, down from $9 per barrel a month ago.


Market Movers

- A blaze at Mexico’s largest refinery, the 330,000 b/d Salina Cruz refinery operated by national oil company Pemex, killed two workers as a fire broke out after a truck bumped into refinery waste that surfaced after rain overflowed the sewers.

- Canada’s pipeline operator Pembina Pipeline (TSOPL) agreed to buy infrastructure assets in Alberta’s Montney basin from oil producer Veren for $300 million, in yet another instance of M&A in the midstream segment.

- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has reportedly renounced on the idea of buying half of Galp Energia’s (ELI:GALP) stake in the allegedly huge Mopane offshore discovery in Namibia, potentially wielding 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent.


Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Not even a forming hurricane in the US Gulf of Mexico could halt the decline in oil prices, with ICE Brent dipping below $70 per barrel and marking the lowest level it has been since late 2021. Defying OPEC+’s postponement of output increases and the Libyan oil embargo, oil prices continue to edge lower on fears of oversupply and an ever-weakening Chinese outlook.

OPEC Lowers Its Demand Growth Outlook. Amidst plunging oil prices, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in both 2024 and 2025, revising this year’s outlook to a still very ambitious 2.03 million b/d whilst cutting next year’s number marginally lower to 1.74 million b/d.

Storm Francine Triggers Gulf Evacuations. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) has paused drilling operations at its Perdido and Whale offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Francine, the sixth named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, is headed towards Texas.

New Regulations Jeopardize US Gulf Production. The American Petroleum Institute warned the US Department of Commerce that if it does not act quickly to publish a new assessment on how to protect endangered species in the Gulf of Mexico, all offshore oil and gas operations could be disrupted.

Central Europe Exhales Amidst New Deal on Ukraine Transit. Hungary’s oil company MOL said it reached a deal to ensure the continued supply of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline that transits Ukraine, changing the delivery point from its own border to the Belarus-Ukraine border.

Biden Administration Expedites SPR Repurchases. Having purchased 2.5 million barrels of US crude last month for delivery to Bryan Mound in January-March, the US Energy Department bought another 3.4 million barrels to be delivered in the same months at the same time, boosting the pace of SPR replenishment.

Russia’s Grey Tankers Ignore Danish Pilots. Oil tankers carrying Russian oil as part of its so-called shadow fleet are increasingly refusing to use the service of Danish pilots as they navigate their ships through the Danish straits, increasing the risks of oil spills amidst strong currents and varying depths.

India Doubles Down on Coal Plants. India’s state-owned coal producer Coal India (NSE:COALINDIA) is planning to invest $8 billion to build coal-fired power plants next to its mines, adding at least 4.7 GW of generation over the next six years as part of a giant 88 GW capacity buildout.

Italy Revisits Its Nuclear Strategy. Italy is looking to reverse its ban on nuclear power production and is mulling the creation of a new company to build smaller modular nuclear reactors, to be led by the state power market champion Enel (BMI:ENEI), expecting to pass it in Parliament next year.

UAE Signs Another Major LNG Term Deal. ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, has agreed to a 15-year term deal with India’s leading oil firm IOC (NSE:IOC) to supply up to 1 million metric tonnes of LNG per year from 2028, the seventh term contract that it allocated to future buyers.

China Launches Anti-Dumping Probe into Canola. Chinese authorities have announced the launch of a one-year anti-dumping investigation into the imports of canola from Canada, with rapeseed becoming Beijing’s tit-for-tat response to Ottawa’s 100% on Chinese-made EVs and other products.

Qatar Names Flagship LNG Carrier After Rex Tillerson. Qatar’s national energy company QatarEnergy has unveiled its first LNG carrier to be built by the Chinese Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard for its upcoming North Field expansion, naming it after former Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson.

Ecopetrol Implodes on CrownRock Deal Fallout. Two independent directors have resigned from the board of Colombian oil producer Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC), dissatisfied with the company’s decision not to take a 30% stake in CrownRock Energy as part of Occidental’s (NYSE:OXY) $12 billion takeover.

India Launches New LNG Truck Policy. Mirroring China’s large-scale conversion of diesel trucks to LNG, India announced a draft scheme to convert one-third of its existing heavy-duty vehicle fleet over the next five years, however, the lack of a nationwide retail network and high costs could derail that vision.

JC:

After Covid there was no sector that did better than Consumer Discretionary stocks. Locking everyone down and sending them all a check to go spend, as it turns out, was great for the Consumer Discretionary sector. And then 2021 ended and the correction in Consumer began... Years in the making, here is the massive top in Consumer Discretionary relative to the S&P500 that's got people talking...

​

Or is it that the Consumer stocks are just finding support once again where they did a decade ago? Is the squeeze now ready to get going? It's interesting that Chip Stocks find themselves in a very similar position. See: Head & Shoulders Top In Semiconductors But don't lose sight on what's happening in Consumer Discretionary right now. With lower lows in the relative price chart, you're seeing a series of higher lows in momentum. Here's the weekly chart showing exactly that from a longer-term perspective:

​

And it's not just the longer-term. You're seeing it on multiple timeframes. Here's the daily plot showing the exact same thing...

​

If this is the massive top in Discretionary that's going to bring down the whole market, you're going to see it in its largest components: Amazon, Tesla and Home Depot, which combined represent almost half the entire sector index. But is a massive top in the consumer the bet you want to make in the middle of a bull market? Or is this not the middle and the bull market is already over? Which are you betting on? Personally, I'm not convinced that these are tops. I'm not convinced that the bull market is over. I'm not convinced that these are all about to collapse. The reason is because we've yet to see any evidence that would suggest this is going to happen. Where is the expansion in stocks making new lows? Why do they keep digging in and buying them up when they need to? Call me when we actually see breakdowns. Call me when we see these "massive tops" actually being completed. Then we'll act accordingly. But we haven't seen it yet.

Gold news: Full https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-818775





And if true will simply accelerate the move to gold.



Mr FFF true to nature:



I think they rather miss the point: https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/why-do-stupid-people-exist

We're not talking about not being a genius. We are talking about being so dumb you struggle to tie shoe laces. In fact, most don't. They never untie them and use them as slip-ons.



Of course they did. Banks are sitting on massive bond portfolio losses.





Stock market vol. picking up.



Bond market vol. no issues.



PUT buying increasing.



Credit spreads widening. Not a good thing.

Funny sort of day. Market bulls trying to fight back during the lunch hour. Will they succeed or will we sell off into the close. I'm thinking we sell off into the close. But who knows.

Off to work.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Mr FFF

Down 5% for September​

Dr. Fly Tue Sep 10, 2024 4:06pm EST Leave a comment


This is my worst month since August 2023 and typifies the type of year I am having, middling. I am +8.5% for 2024, way off previous years and frankly struggling to find my fat pitch or any semblance of rhythm. The good news for all of you, or at least the one’s emailing me to potentially manage your money, is that I am streaky and by the time I am ready to go, I will most likely be due for a streak to the upside.
No matter how poorly I trade and for how long, I always manage to bust loose to new highs. I find the key during periods of duress is not try to “make up” for losses in a day via wild eyed gambits. Often times people overcompensate for losses with insane bets in the hopes of turning it around and that’s exactly what they are: hopes.
Into tomorrow I am 33% cash, 11.5% $SQQQ, the rest long. I had some hedges very green earlier but didn’t close them out before the 1,000 green candles into the close. I can either sulk about it or forget it, since it already happened. I will choose to undoubtedly ******* sulk on it.

Unforgiving Tape​

Dr. Fly Wed Sep 11, 2024 10:33am EST Leave a comment


This could be the worst tape of them all, with absolutely no place to hide. The Dow is being taken to the woodshed, off by nearly 700. All of the defensive areas are down 1 to 1.5% and the sole outperformers are in solar, since both Trump and Harris like it.
The huge standout is the banks. After the $JPM plunge yesterday you’d think we’d get a bounce, but not even close. The $XLF is hammered for 2.3% and the $KRE is off by 3.4%. The Russell is lower by 1.85% and breadth is an abysmal 28%. We have gone straight to hell from the open, all red candles, nothing but pain.
The reason, apparently, is Trump lost the debate. To me, that makes no sense, even if it were true. No one really gives a **** about the debate and minds were not changed. But that’s the way it was perceived and that’s why Trump sensitive sectors are getting railed.
Unfortunately, I have a portfolio filled with defensive stocks and those aren’t being defensive today, in spite of rates dropping again. I will hold these for another day to see if we turn up tomorrow and maintain an 11.5% hedge in $TZA, but still down 94bps for the session.

Unforgiving Tape​

Dr. Fly Wed Sep 11, 2024 10:33am EST Leave a comment


This could be the worst tape of them all, with absolutely no place to hide. The Dow is being taken to the woodshed, off by nearly 700. All of the defensive areas are down 1 to 1.5% and the sole outperformers are in solar, since both Trump and Harris like it.
The huge standout is the banks. After the $JPM plunge yesterday you’d think we’d get a bounce, but not even close. The $XLF is hammered for 2.3% and the $KRE is off by 3.4%. The Russell is lower by 1.85% and breadth is an abysmal 28%. We have gone straight to hell from the open, all red candles, nothing but pain.
The reason, apparently, is Trump lost the debate. To me, that makes no sense, even if it were true. No one really gives a **** about the debate and minds were not changed. But that’s the way it was perceived and that’s why Trump sensitive sectors are getting railed.
Unfortunately, I have a portfolio filled with defensive stocks and those aren’t being defensive today, in spite of rates dropping again. I will hold these for another day to see if we turn up tomorrow and maintain an 11.5% hedge in $TZA, but still down 94bps for the session.

Lots of intra-day 'V' price action. Another one today.

Marks indecision or rather bulls and bears fighting over the trend. Eventually one side will capitulate or news comes out that quickly settles the matter.

You either day trade it, harder in real time than it looks on the chart or sit out or have a different strategy altogether. Possibly I'll post my old daytrading strategy.

Difficult to even guess how this eventually plays out over the remainder of the week.

Look at the current headlines:

View by Time Source​
01:55PM Why Hurricane Francine hasn’t sparked the oil-price rally markets were looking for 01:54PM Nasdaq 100 Climbs 1% as Nvidia Leads Tech Rally: Markets Wrap 01:53PM Kamala Harris was successful in ‘getting under’ Trump’s ‘skin’: Kevin O’Leary 01:43PM Stock Market Today: Dow Falls, Nasdaq Gains After Pickup in Monthly Core Inflation 01:43PM Trump social-media stock ‘DJT’ tumbles after former president’s debate vs. Democrat Harris 01:43PM Trump says Taylor Swift will ‘pay a price in the marketplace’ for endorsing Kamala Harris 01:42PM Children’s Place shares nearly double on profit surprise 01:35PM The Harris-Trump debate ignored this $22.6 trillion issue that most workers are worried about 01:33PM Fed rate cuts aren’t even here yet. Wall Street’s booming commercial real-estate business isn’t waiting. 01:23PM Lundin CEO Says Potential Buyers Are Eyeing Its European Mines 01:20PM Manchester United shares slide after soccer club posts lower revenue, wider loss in Q4 01:19PM S&P 500 is flat as September angst continues, Nvidia boosts tech shares 01:13PM ‘The price is an insult. Not getting over it, ever’: The iPhone 16 starts at $799 — and it’s not exciting enough for an upgrade 01:07PM Dow off 250 points after CPI report appears to have taken deeper Fed rate cut off table 12:57PM The Chatbot Will See You Now 12:54PM Dutch Government Reduces ABN Amro Stake With $1.3 Billion Sale 12:52PM Housing remains in a low inventory condition: Mike Aubrey 12:52PM The Fed is set to cut — but Wall Street wants more 12:51PM Newman: Kamala Harris has flip-flopped. Good for her 12:36PM AT&T CEO on Fed rate cuts: They will make our stock look more attractive 12:31PM Wall St falls after inflation data dents bigger rate-cut hopes 12:21PM Apple, Google owe whopping tax bills due to EU's crackdown on Big Tech 12:10PM Mexican Peso Jumps as Traders Look Past Judicial Overhaul 12:02PM Steward to Hand Off Hospital Operations Under Pact With MPT 11:52AM SBM Fuels Petrobras’s Oil Growth With More Production Vessels 11:51AM America is ‘more likely’ to see a Harris victory after Trump’s debate performance: Shah Gilani 11:14AM Bahrain Offloads Stake in Key Saudi Oil Pipeline to BlackRock 11:01AM Consumer prices rise at slowest pace since early 2021 11:00AM Stocks slide as CPI report tees up small Fed cut 11:00AM Posh Real Estate Deals Boom in High-Flying Junk Muni-Bond Market 11:00AM Nestle Cuts Ties With South African Staple Coffee Creamer Brand 10:59AM Here's the latest inflation breakdown 10:59AM Campbell Soup to make historic name change 10:58AM U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles Increased in Week Ended Sept. 6 10:57AM Angola’s Kwanza Falls to 25-Year Low Against the Dollar 10:50AM Stuart Varney: Trump-Harris debate didn't give voters what they needed 10:32AM Television Shopping Channel QVC Floats $1 Billion Debt Exchange 10:27AM Ghana Raises Cocoa Farmers’ Pay by 45% as Bank Loan Stalls 10:19AM Putin Asks Government to Consider a Cap on Nickel, Uranium Exports 10:18AM Goldman Sachs Tests Demand for Debt of Furniture Seller Wayfair 10:14AM Greece Is Said to Tap More Advisers on National Bank Stake Sale 10:13AM Brazil economy to grow at least 3% this year, finance minister says 10:04AM Brazil's central bank says forgotten bank funds can't help meet fiscal target 10:01AM Inflation Cooled in August, Keeping the Fed Poised to Cut Rates 10:01AM Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson Says the AI Theme Is ‘Overcooked’ 10:00AM Bangladesh Seeks $5 Billion in Emergency Funds from Lenders 10:00AM How a Private-Equity Payday Drained a Hospital Chain of Cash 09:53AM Stellantis Supplier CLN Seeks Advice for Debt Talks Amid Slump 09:45AM Trump Media’s Stock Plunges After Debate 09:41AM Russian Oil Prices Drop Back Below G-7’s $60 Price Cap 09:34AM Dow slips as CPI report tees up small Fed cut 09:07AM Europe’s September Debt Rush Hits €100 Billion in Record Time 09:05AM US inflation drops further making rate cut likely 08:59AM Barclays Joins Citi, Erste in Seeing More Forint Weakness Ahead 08:54AM Taishin Raises Shin Kong Offer in Takeover Battle Against CTBC 08:52AM Traders Back Off Bets on Jumbo Fed Cut This Month After CPI Data 08:49AM Inflation rises 2.5% in August, less than expected 08:46AM Exclusive: UniCredit CEO approaches Commerzbank to explore merger talks, source says 08:43AM Fed seen cutting policy rate by 25 bps next week 08:40AM South African Banks Eye Unsecured Loans for Loss-Absorbing Funds 08:26AM Berkshire unloads another chunk of Bank of America as CEO Moynihan lauds Buffett as great shareholder 08:24AM Trump Media Shares Slide After Debate as Lockup Expiry Looms 08:23AM Morning Bid: A swift change to inflation-watch 08:19AM Market experts explain why US stock futures went down with Harris as debate 'victor' 08:16AM Miner Vale Raises Annual Forecast for Iron Ore Production 08:09AM Trump Trades Are Being Dialed Back Even More After the US Debate 08:07AM UK Power Demand Surges With Colder Weather Than Last Christmas 07:56AM How Blenders founder Chase Fisher's $5 'beater' sunglasses led to breaking the internet with Deion Sanders 07:56AM Mongolia’s First $1.7 Billion Refinery To Be Ready By March 2026 07:54AM US futures slip with CPI report on deck 07:45AM Creditors Opposed to Intrum’s Restructuring Plan to Join Forces 07:45AM UK government confirms £500m Tata Steel subsidy 07:45AM Slovak President Urges Cabinet to Act to Avoid EU Aid Sanctions 07:41AM Morgan Stanley Expects IPO Wave, Large M&A Deals to Hit Germany 07:27AM Oil’s Plunge Signals No Need for Extra OPEC+ Supplies, Citi Says 07:25AM Fiery Harris-Trump debate gives Wall Street little new insight 07:16AM How will the markets react to ABC News Presidential Debate? 'Not a lot of takeaways,' Adam Turnquist says 07:14AM Goldman Sachs to Sell SRT Tied to $3 Billion of Leveraged Loans 07:12AM Chinese Parts Sought for Turkey Nuclear Plant After German Delay 07:09AM Arabica Coffee Falls as Traders Weigh Brazil Exports and Weather 07:08AM Rightmove rejects £5.6bn offer from Murdoch's firm 07:00AM Topgolf Sent Callaway Into the Rough 07:00AM US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Slides to Lowest Since February 2023 06:55AM Here's why September and October are historically weak for stocks 06:44AM German Government Wrong-Footed by UniCredit Move on Commerzbank 06:40AM Stay Away From China-Exposed Stocks in Europe, Citi Says 06:33AM Apple picks the low-hanging fruit in iPhone unveil 06:15AM ICG Raises Record €15.2 Billion for European Direct-Lending Fund 06:09AM Transnet Breaches Loan Terms Again as Debt Weighs on Investment 06:01AM $800 million Mega Millions jackpot won by player in Texas		01:40PM Uranium Stocks Ignite After Putin Asks Gov't To Weigh Export Restrictions On Critical Commodities 01:20PM Yields Jump Despite Stellar 10Y Auction 12:50PM Israel Offers To End War: Hamas Leader Sinwar To Be Given Safe Passage If All Hostages Returned 12:23PM Nvidia Soars After CEO Says "Demand For AI Chips Is So Great" Customer Relations Are "Tense" 12:17PM Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in August 12:00PM Lithium Bear Market Over? UBS Says Chinese Battery Giant Curbs Production 11:35AM WATCH: Melania Trump Speaks On Assassination Attempt against Her Husband 11:12AM The Cost of Rent Up 0.4 Percent Again, CPI Rises 0.2 Percent in August 11:10AM Debate Post-Mortem: Trump Was Trump, Harris Held Up, And Moderators Played Partisan Tricks 10:54AM Crude Tumbles As Biden's Dept of Energy Makes Mockery of Private Data; Cushing Draws 9 Of Past 10 Weeks 10:47AM Core Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected As Shelter Costs Unexpectedly Rise 10:45AM The Dangers Of Money Printing: Thomas Jefferson And The Financial Panic Of 1819 10:34AM American Eagle Outfitters Q2 2024 Finds It More Attractively Valued, But Still Only Fair 10:18AM Another Perspective of the Harris-Trump Meeting 09:58AM QQQY: Surprisingly Solid Strategy But Overambitious Distributions 09:55AM August CPI Report: Falling Inflation Likely Solidifies Rate Direction 09:49AM Spire Global: A Recently Inked Milestone Deal Once Again Overshadowed By Another Management Blunder 09:44AM Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year 09:42AM Personal finance links: playing stupid games 09:42AM Last Night’s Debate (?) September 10, 2024 09:00AM At The Money: Managing Bond Duration 08:54AM YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter 08:31AM BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in August; Core CPI increased 0.3% 07:30AM “pollution does not discriminate,” and if a regulating authority had to consider race in its enforcement decision making, it will “indeed participate in racism.” 07:17AM Utilities Stocks Are Now Top-Performing US Equity Sector In 2024 07:08AM Carbon capture and storage is a fantasy — and taxpayers are footing the bill 07:00AM MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey 06:37AM Macro Briefing: 11 September 2024 01:10AM what happened to advocacy of a 4% inflation target ? 12:48AM Who Won the Debate? Ask Me in a Week to 10 Days 12:34AM DGRO: Strong Performance, But Is It Really A Dividend Fund? Sep-10 Wednesday: CPI Sep-10 Germany Suspends Schengen, Immigration Repercussion Across the Entire EU Sep-10 All Roads Lead to Pennsylvania Sep-10 QQQ: My In-Depth Look At The Nasdaq-100 Fundamentals Sep-10 AZ – Best Build to Rent Single Family Housing Market Sep-10 CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 4.3% Year-over-year in July, "Notable Cooling" Sep-10 Update: Lumber Prices Unchanged YoY Sep-10 NFIB “Mood on Main Street Darkens” Small Business Optimism Dips Sep-10 Tuesday links: resisting gravity Sep-10 Atlas Lithium Corporation: Buying The Lithium Dip Sep-10 CVS Health Is Losing Its Relevance Sep-10 Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 3% in August Sep-10 Canadian Solar: Slight Growth Cannot Remove Concerns Over Operations In China Sep-10 “All I see is Red” Sep-10 No Improvements in Delivery Yet from DeJoy’s USPS Plan Sep-10 Research links: reasonably efficient markets Sep-10 Boomer Apple Sep-10 Why It Is A Bad Idea To Raise Tariffs Sep-10 FinChat Version 4.0 - The future of investment research, powered by AI. Sep-10 Methane, the other greenhouse gas Sep-10 The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds? Sep-10 ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Price Growth Slows, Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas Sep-10 Transcript: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Sep-10 US Core Consumer Inflation Trend Set To Hold Steady In August Sep-10 Enforcing a Supreme Court Ethics Code Sep-10 Health Care Systems are Starting to Drop Medicare Advantage Plans Sep-10 Macro Briefing: 10 September 2024 Sep-09 The Consensus CPI on Wednesday Is 0.2 Percent, High, Low, or Spot On? Sep-09 DON’T Trust the Polls Sep-09 Clawback of Friday's Losses Sets Up Bullish Haramis for Lead Indices Sep-09 47 Percent of All Voters Think Harris Is Too Progressive Sep-09 Monday links: an economy on hold Sep-09 GDPNow Rates the Jobs Report as Positive, That Was Not My Guess Sep-09 Momentum Monday - Does The Bleeding Turn Into A Code Red? Sep-09 Adviser links: staffing a growing firm Sep-09 Fed Beige Book Conditions Are Worse Now Than the Start of the Great Recession Sep-09 US Stocks Continue To Top Global Markets In 2024 Sep-09 Macro Briefing: 9 September 2024 Sep-08 Year-Over-Year Rent Inflation Is About to Fall Sharply Sep-08 Knowing What The F** Is Going On In Markets Sep-08 Semiconductors undercut 200-day MA Sep-08 Sunday links: a market conundrum Sep-08 Wrecktember, The Nvidia of Cookies, The Great Liquidity Drought and The Death Of Emerging Venture Capital Managers ...Sunday Reads And Listens Sep-08 Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Sep-07 When the Models Fail Sep-07 Saturday links: snacking culture Sep-07 Book Bits: 7 September 2024 Sep-06 Reagan, the Man Sep-06 Friday links: a healthy dose of skepticism Sep-06 Podcast links: the other guy Sep-06 MiB: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Sep-06 Research Review | 6 September 2024 | Portfolio Risk Management Sep-06 Macro Briefing: 6 September 2024 Sep-05 Dow Jones 'Bull Trap' Expands Into Test Of 20-Day MA Sep-05 The Worst Month for Stocks Sep-05 3 Things You Don’t Know About Josh Sep-05 A Titan of Old Germany Sep-05 Will Friday’s Jobs Report Alter The Upbeat Q3 GDP Nowcast? Sep-04 Election Year Bets on Tech Stocks, Semis, and AI’s Next Steps Missing your favorite blog here?​

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Markets went everywhere today:
End of session

 

[ducati916]

Full: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/artific...06fqi4tv12g&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink






Mr FFF

It Felt Like the Good Olde Days​

Wed Sep 11, 2024 6:36pm EST 0


It was supposed to be all bad and then it ended up all good, leaving me with a sentimental feeling of success and fervor, something akin to how I felt every single day during the 2020 to 2021 markets. I closed +153bps, with some pretty extraordinary day trades, which I still have on.
My intent is to perhaps liquidate them at the open and keep a core group of stocks in the kitty. While markets did close great today and the Stocklabs oversold signal did bank once again, I’d be lying to you if I said “the coast is clear.”
Here are the open positions I took this morning.

Had I not done anything and just sat there like a ******* moron, like most of your advisors, I’d barely be up today, or perhaps down.
How predictable is this tape? Quite. It tanks every ******* morning at the open and then jimmies higher for the duration. I track the actual stats.

That’s 1 up 6 down in $QQQ from the 10am to 11am hour, for the net loss of 0.58%







No.

The law of diminishing marginal returns is why not.




Full: https://www.bankeronwheels.com/are-you-overconfident-in-predicting-equity-risk/

Tied to the above: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investi...u8xm1kz6m9n&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink




Full: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...lu5byxoevpp&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Machine learning: https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/inve...rning-is-transforming-portfolio-optimization/

Trend following: https://www.optimalmomentum.com/here-is-why-trend-following-is-generally-ignored-but-should-not-be/

Narrative momentum: https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2024/09/narratives-and-momentum-another-source.html

Definitely a thing (narrative momentum). Something for the backtesters out there.

I have always (well not always, but for several years) used this:



So now I have run out of chart slots, however take a look at AVGO, highlighted by @peter2 a week or so ago. Setting up nicely for a short position. Possibly a day or two closer to or exceeding recent highs.

But the above chart keeps the most popular and narrative momentum stocks on view. Unfortunately only an intra-day scan. But if you look at it each day, you start to register the tickers that repeat or just keep a formal record.

Notice GLD is in there. Gold is having a good day as is silver. USD weak.

On a month-to-month basis in a most unwelcome development, “core services” re-accelerated for the second month in a row in August, to 5.0% annualized, which fueled the re-acceleration of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI. Core Services make up about 65% of the Consumer Price Index and include housing, healthcare, and insurance.

Inflation is a must for Treasury. The only way to manage the debt is high inflation. That is the message of gold. Gold is indifferent to real rates & the USD b/c gold knows both higher rates AND lower inflation make western sovereign debt loads unsustainable.


The last time the US yield curve un-inverted with US debt/GDP at 123%, US deficit/GDP at 7%, US Net Int’l Investment Position at -80% of GDP, & Central Banks not having bought any USTs on net in 10 years was…

NEVER.

It is, by definition, “different this time” (at least for the US).

The other day I posted an article on Tether a 'stablecoin' tied to BTC.

Tether buys UST Bills as traders/investors buy BTC. As the Treasury issues more debt (Bills), which are very close to cash, in theory BTC should rise to protect against inflation, which means more Tether issued, which means more Bills can be sold, wash, rinse, repeat.

So Bills are inflating, Tether is inflating, BTC is safe because Why?

If BTC is to be exchanged back into cash via Tether, what's the point? Particularly if cash is now essentially worthless in a similar situation to the Weimar in mid 1920's.

Could you just use BTC w/o the conversion back to cash?

Someone like me would not accept BTC as settlement of an exchange. I think that BTC is still too niche for most people. I would accept however gold or silver.

Now I'm not talking about trading it. Trade it to your heart's content. More that it replaces fiat currency in your 'savings' component of financial allocations.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

And end of session summary,:

I hope this does not detract from but complement your post Monsieur @ducati916 ?
The jump of silver gold oil with good but subdued shares index is interesting today

 

[peter2]

Ha, you rogue. I'm currently long AVGO after being short pre-earnings. Looks like I'll be selling my longs to you then, tonight perhaps.

Got the oil low, finally. It took two parcels as the POO went a little lower than anticipated. Hoping it can make it back to $72/bbl (WTI that is).

All is good, in this BTD camp.

 

[ducati916]

Ha, you rogue. I'm currently long AVGO after being short pre-earnings. Looks like I'll be selling my longs to you then, tonight perhaps.

Got the oil low, finally. It took two parcels as the POO went a little lower than anticipated. Hoping it can make it back to $72/bbl (WTI that is).

All is good, in this BTD camp.

Possibly you will.

I also remain bullish oil. It will remain volatile within a range of $70-$90. Can't be too high, creates economic issues, can't be too low, curtails the shale production which leads then to much higher prices.

Oil News:

Friday, September 13th, 2024

Hurricane Francine helped oil prices edge higher after bearish sentiment overtook the market, taking off some 700,000 b/d of oil supply from the market, even if for several days. A large amount of Libyan production remains shut-in after UN-brokered talks have collapsed, meaning supply disruptions now total 1.5 million b/d already. However, with China pessimism hitting its apex in the entire post-pandemic period, it would take more than supply disruptions to lift Brent above its current price of $73 per barrel.

Hurricane Francine Shuts in Offshore Output. As Hurricane Francine made landfall in Louisiana this week as a Category 2 hurricane, some 42% of crude oil and 53% of natural gas production was pre-emptively shut in across the US Gulf of Mexico, equivalent to 730,000 b/d and 992 million ft3/d.

Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Chinese Exports. Following unprecedentedly weak lifting demand from Chinese customers over the summer months, the country’s NOC Saudi Aramco is set to increase its supplies to China in October, with nominations soaring to 46 million barrels, up by 3 million barrels from September.

Gold Hits All-Time High on US Fed Rate Cut Promise. The price of gold climbed to an all-time high after US inflation surpassed analyst expectations again, with the combined dip in US Treasury yields and US dollar prompting investors to send bullion to a record $2,551 per ounce this week.

Scotland’s Only Refinery Confirms 2025 Closure. The only crude processing plant in oil-rich Scotland, the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery, is set to close in the second quarter of 2025 after exactly 100 years of operation, with operator Petroineos seeking to refurbish it into a fuel import terminal.

UAE Invests Big into US Blue Hydrogen Gigaproject. After months of speculation, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates confirmed its 35% farm-in into Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE:XOM) Baytown, with ADNOC expecting an FID on the world’s largest blue hydrogen project in mid-2025.

Russia Mulls Uranium and Metal Export Restrictions. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow would consider limiting exports on uranium, titanium and nickel in retaliation for Western sanctions, sending the three-month LME nickel contract 3% higher to $16,150 this week.

BlackRock Invests into Bahrain’s Pipeline Grid. BlackRock’s (NYSE:BLK) Diversified Infrastructure unit bought a minority stake in a pipeline linking the island state of Bahrain to Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure for an undisclosed sum, five years after it bought 40% of ADNOC’s pipeline business for $4 billion.

US Refiners Suffer Minimal Francine Damage. The supply of US refinery products in the US Gulf Coast, especially the 3 million b/d Louisiana refining capacity, has been largely unaffected by Hurricane Francine, with Shell’s Norco and Citgo’s Lake Charles refinery reporting no damage and returning to normal operations.

Russian Crude Prices Drop Below Oil Price Cap. For the first time since January, the free-on-board price of Russia’s main export grade Urals fell below the G7 price cap level of $60 per barrel on the back of the freefall in flat prices, potentially prompting higher utilization of Greek shipping companies ahead.

Argentina Cuts Energy Subsidies. The reformist Milei government in Argentina has cut energy subsidies in the Latin American nation by $2.7 billion in the first seven months of 2024, with the Energy Ministry claiming the country achieved an energy trade balance surplus of $2.9 billion in January-July.

Uzbekistan Starts Processing Taliban-Produced Oil. Uzbekistan’s oil refiner Saneg has signed a deal with Afghanistan’s Taliban government to start refining rail-delivered Afghan crude oil at its 40,000 b/d Fergana refinery, with upstream production boosted by Chinese investments over the past years.

Australia Launches Ambitious Hydrogen Strategy. Australia’s federal government launched a new hydrogen strategy, eyeing production of 15 million tonnes per year of green hydrogen by 2050, with a lower 0.5 mtpa target for 2030, replacing the previous strategy that didn’t set output targets.

Detroit Refinery Finally Allowed to Run Higher. Michigan’s environmental agency has issued a new air permit to the Detroit refinery operated by Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), allowing the plant to lift throughput rates that were heretofore capped at 140,000 b/d notably higher if it curbs emissions.

Manufacturing expansion in US: https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/sun...167u73pxvn7&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Part of the re-shoring. Good for the US. It will however be inflationary. To be played via infrastructure stocks. XLI as an ETF holds a selection as does PAVE.

AAPL: https://www.macworld.com/article/2453873/iphone-16-camera-control-first-look.html

Remember when vinyl was replaced with CDs now vinyl is back? Same thing.




Mr FFF





Flippe-flopped back to buying CALLS over last couple of days. Sitting in no-mans land currently.

The SKEW:



The Options market is having significantly more effect on day-to-day trading on the SPX.



Weak USD will be driving inflationary pressures. Not overly discussed. Looks to be moving lower.



Yen on the move again.



Week not quite over, but a good week for the bulls. A rotation back into risk and out of defensives. The only thing to watch...financials. In a bull market financials need to be part of it.

Probably held back this week by JPM cutting hours. Mr Dimon is very bearish on the US economy.

Gold & Silver heading higher. Not surprising as USD heading lower driven in part by the highly expected rate cuts. The betting is whether it is 25bps or 50bps.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Gundlach:



jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

For next week:




With the Fed widely assumed to be cutting the FFR on Wednesday:



We have the: will there be a recession, aka, hard landing?

Fighting for a soft landing is deficit spending, sitting at 5% to 7% of GDP



Total government spending is now +/- 25% of GDP.

Makes the consumer data more interesting context wise.


Mr FFF

Are You Ready for the $BTC GigaSpike?​

Dr. Fly Fri Sep 13, 2024 5:24pm EST Leave a comment


Sirs
Here is a little data for you concerning performance in the month of October for Bitcoin.



You’re probably thinking “this time is different”, but are you prepared to live with that decision? We are bullish in the intermediate term, barreling headfirst into Hallow’s Eve.

My day went as expected, extracted +48bps from the market and closed up 2% for the week. I have been slumping, so it’s good to see a little progress. You have to understand, and let this be known, I am presently at the desk looking at the market maybe 2 hours per day, now that I am “getting back in the biz” and taking calls with prospective investors. For those wanting to inquire, email me at flybroker at gmail.

Other than that, my lawn looks like absolute ****, which is particularly disheartening since I’ve put so much ******* effort into the damn thing. Alas, I might have to just sell this stupid house to escape this lawn. It’s so embarrassing.

Mrs. Fly is at the door now waiting for me to drive her to Whole Foods, where we will spend $500 on a few bags of groceries. After that, I might partake in a little dry gin martini drinking, some light jazz music, and perhaps a small morsel of food to ingest, not too much as I like to avoid being rotund.

jog on
duc