When was the past the same as the current (Coronavirus) and what happened?

[barney]

The following info is both sobering and scary (The BOLD type gives a snap shot, but I found myself compelled to read all of it for perspective)

The plague of Justinian; The great plague, Smallpox, Aids, and the Spanish Flu make SARS (and hopefully Corona Virus in hindsight) look like a walk in the park

Dare I say we live in fortunate times … Well done to humanity for their advances in science technology and health … and to our World leaders for acting as quick as they have. Of course everything could be more efficient in hindsight, but apart from the 'odd' leader and the odd poor decision, I'd say they have acted very responsibly.

Reading the below statistics actually made me sad and remorseful … but also hopeful and thankful that we live in an age where our World Governments give us a much better chance of survival


430 b.c.

Smallpox is caused by the variola virus, which spreads through skin-to-skin contact or contact with bodily fluids. It can also be spread through the air.

In 430 B.C., smallpox killed more than 30,000 people in Athens, Greece, reducing the city’s population by at least 20%.

541a.d.

The Plague of Justinian, which began in 541 and continued on and off for nearly 200 years, killed 50 million people in the Middle East, Asia and the Mediterranean basin, according to some estimates. The plague is caused by bacteria that are spread by rats that were bitten by infected fleas.


1334

What's known as the Great Plague of London actually started in China in 1334 and spread along trade routes, wiping out entire towns. Florence, Italy, lost a third of its 90,000 residents in the first six months. Overall, Europe lost 25 million people.


1519

There were approximately 25 million people living in what is now called Mexico when Hernando Cortes arrived in 1519. A smallpox epidemic killed between 5 and 8 million of the native population in the following two years. Over the next century, less than 2 million would survive this and other communicable diseases brought by European explorers.


1633

Smallpox reached Massachusetts in 1633, brought by settlers from France, Great Britain and the Netherlands. It quickly spread to the Native American population, which had up until now been free of this communicable disease. It’s unclear how many were killed by smallpox, though historians estimate some 20 million may have died after the Europeans landed.


1793

Philadelphia was struck with a yellow fever epidemic in 1793 that killed a 10th of the city's 45,000-person population.


1860

The Modern Plague began in the 1860s and killed more than 12 million people in China, India and Hong Kong. It wasn’t until the 1890s that people figured out how the bacterial infection was being spread and a vaccine was created.

1901

A smallpox epidemic in Boston infected 1,500 people in 1901. There were 270 reported deaths.


1910

The largest plague outbreak in the 20th century occurred in Manchuria between 1910 and 1911. Approximately 60,000 people died. The plague still occasionally causes smaller outbreaks in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.


1918

The great flu pandemic of 1918 and 1919 is estimated to have killed between 30 million and 50 million people worldwide. Among them were 675,000 Americans.


1952

Polio peaked in the US. Nearly 60,000 children were infected and more than 3,000 died. Three years later vaccination began to prevent the communicable disease.




1984

In 1984, scientists identified the human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, as the cause of AIDS. That same year the deadly disease killed more than 5,500 people in the United States. Today more than 35 million people around the world are living with an HIV infection. More than 25 million people have died of AIDS since the first cases were reported.


2003

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, better known as SARS, was first identified in 2003 in China, though the first case is believed to have occurred in November 2002. By July more than 8,000 cases and 774 deaths had been reported.


2009

The global H1N1 flu pandemic may have killed as many as 575,000 people, though only 18,500 deaths were confirmed. The H1N1 virus is a type of swine flu, which is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by the type A influenza virus.


2010

An epidemic of cholera killed at least 10,000 people in Haiti in 2010 following a deadly earthquake that paralyzed the nation. The outbreak hampered efforts to rebuild. The United Nations would later apologize for initially denying claims that Nepalese peacekeepers brought the deadly disease to the country following the earthquake.


2012


In 2012, approximately 122,000 people worldwide died from the measles, a highly contagious disease caused by a virus. Typhoid fever kills around 216,000 people a year. Tuberculosis, an infectious bacterial disease, killed an estimated 1.3 million in 2012. These are some of the infectious diseases that most concern health officials today.


2014

The 2014 epidemic of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in West Africa was the largest Ebola outbreak on record. The virus killed more than 11,300 people before it was declared over in 2016.


2016

The World Health Organization declared a public health emergency of international concern over Zika virus predicting 3 to 4 million would be infected within a year as it was “spreading explosively” throughout the Americas. Zika is the first mosquito-borne disease to cause a birth defect. The devastating birth defect is microcephaly. The virus is also associated with miscarriage, stillbirth and other neurological deficits. While not deadly in the way other epidemics are, there is a big impact on future generations when fewer children are born because parents are afraid of the virus.

 

[sptrawler]

The one thing we have to do is keep negative politics out of the commentary.

For the record I'm not a big fan of Conservative politics but I've been impressed by Morrison's actions so far on the various economic packages he's released. They look after ordinary people and the businesses that employ them.

The thing that really worries me economically is how we pay for all this in the years to come. As the whole world basically is involved I hope they all get together and wipe off the debts of countries whose economies can't repay what they owe. Let's see China start the ball rolling on this, they owe us one.

But that's all secondary to the health aspects. Everything must be done to stamp this thing out and find a vaccine. As long as idiots like Trump don't try and profiteer from it I'm confident it can be done within a year.

Great post Rumpy, if we can get this virus through without our loved ones getting it, there is every chance a vaccine will be developed IMO it is the best chance of a good outcome.
I believe this is the deepest manure we could face in our lives, but I do believe a vaccine can be sorted to block the receptors if they are stable.
Just my opinion.

 

[qldfrog]

Great post Rumpy, if we can get this virus through without our loved ones getting it, there is every chance a vaccine will be developed IMO it is the best chance of a good outcome.
I believe this is the deepest manure we could face in our lives, but I do believe a vaccine can be sorted to block the receptors if they are stable.
Just my opinion.

Our history in vaccine creation for these viruses is not good, i have more hope in the discovery of adequate treatment able to make us survive the critical hours between lungs inflammation and body fighting back
If you compare it to many diseases, it is not that destructive in its known effects, but sadly we can not stop breathing for a few hours to give time for our body to react
Vaccine would be great but even the flu vaccine is of limited effect due to mutations, and aids and ebola vaccines after billions spent in research in the last 4 decades are going nowhere.
Better focus hope on possible treatments and reduced fatality rate than on a miracle solution which may never come, or come too late with people disaffected and adding the medical sciences to their long list of untrusted agents.
Try to sell them measles vaccine need after that....
My view only

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting post by a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney, I will post up what he says, as I think it kind of supports what we have been saying. It is well worth reading start to finish IMO, it clarifies a lot of our ponderings and actually shows they are not ill informed but well thought out by our members.
.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-...experts-fight-this-virus-20200327-p54eht.html
From the article:
Do you have questions about COVID-19? Please, don’t ask your doctor. When it comes to coronavirus, most of us have no idea what we’re talking about.

I’m a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney. I’m caring for kids hospitalised with suspected or proven COVID-19, so I want to call out some colleagues contributing to the confusion.

There are two types of doctors. Those who see patients (clinicians) and those who look after the population (public health doctors). Clinicians are the doctors to see if you have COVID-19; but the vast majority of us have never managed a pandemic in our lives. In fact, the first time most of us heard of "flattening the curve" was March 2020.

Some public health doctors, however, model and manage outbreaks for a living. Many have done so for decades. These women and men advise the body of chief medical officers chaired by Professor Brendan Murphy, the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee. Its recommendations are made public every time they meet and the national cabinet is bound by them.

Enormous credit is due to the AHPPC and Scott Morrison. At a time when the World Health Organisation felt it unnecessary, Australia was among the first countries in the world to impose travel restrictions on China. It cannot be overstated how brave this decision was: Murphy acted before most of his international counterparts and Morrison enacted the advice verbatim, despite the enormous economic impact. We are not Italy, but we might have been if not for this foresight.

Unfortunately, Morrison and Murphy’s education campaign has been woeful. They have created an information vacuum, and my colleagues scramble to fill it. King of the castle is journalist and physician Dr Normal Swan.

Swan claims he is holding decision-makers to account, but where tough questions need asking, he prescribes answers instead. This is particularly evident in his longstanding call for more testing. It’s a strawman argument, of course. Everybody would like to do more testing but there are not enough tests. So, the real-world question is: how to best use a small number of tests for a population of 23 million people? It’s hard to answer that – because it takes several specialised professionals to do so.

Another pet peeve are his back-of-the-envelope extrapolations of "the curve". It can feel as if we are perpetually at the point of no return. But of course, if interpreting an epidemic curve was a matter of simple arithmetic, expert advisers to the AHPPC, Professors Jodie McVernon and Vanessa Johnston, would be out of a job.


During their National Press Club address they explained what really matters: the rate of uncontrolled transmission of COVID-19 within Australia’s borders. This remains a small but growing proportion of total cases. They explain comparisons with other countries is confounded by testing regimens, demographics and many other variables. Interpretation takes supercomputers, not eyeballs.

Perhaps the most momentous push has been for an immediate national lockdown, including closing all schools. Swan is not alone on this. There are outbreak professionals breaking ranks, such as professors Raina MacIntyre and Brendan Crabb. Their objections are understandable. MacIntyre was a member of an external review panel advising the AHPPC; their majority recommendation of a lockdown was rejected.

But as the chair of that review, Dr Shitij Kapur, points out, there is more for the government to consider than numbers of COVID-19 cases. Morrison tactlessly pits this as lives against the economy, but the real concern is that prolonged isolation and a deep recession will kill people, too.

Make no mistake: the situation we face is dire. Many Australians will die from COVID-19 and many deaths will not be preventable. But the decision-makers can manage two big causes of preventable death.

First, hospital failure. If our hospitals fail, anybody needing help during that time could die. A mother with a difficult labour. A brother with an asthma attack. A daughter in a car accident.

But second, poorly timed and disproportionate public health measures will kill people, too. Consider this: the highest rate of male suicide ever recorded in Australia was during the Great Depression. Studies during the SARS outbreak demonstrate significant rates of mental illness years after people were in isolation.

Rampant suicide and mental illness. Might this be Australia’s fate if we get the macabre balance wrong? Who do you think is in the best position to navigate the way? Outbreak experts with all the data? Or twitter’s take on a graph? Perhaps it’s time we all zip it, and let the professionals do the talking.

Ben Smith is a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney.

 

[jbocker]

The following info is both sobering and scary (The BOLD type gives a snap shot, but I found myself compelled to read all of it for perspective)

The plague of Justinian; The great plague, Smallpox, Aids, and the Spanish Flu make SARS (and hopefully Corona Virus in hindsight) look like a walk in the park

Dare I say we live in fortunate times … Well done to humanity for their advances in science technology and health … and to our World leaders for acting as quick as they have. Of course everything could be more efficient in hindsight, but apart from the 'odd' leader and the odd poor decision, I'd say they have acted very responsibly.

Reading the below statistics actually made me sad and remorseful … but also hopeful and thankful that we live in an age where our World Governments give us a much better chance of survival


430 b.c.

Smallpox is caused by the variola virus, which spreads through skin-to-skin contact or contact with bodily fluids. It can also be spread through the air.

In 430 B.C., smallpox killed more than 30,000 people in Athens, Greece, reducing the city’s population by at least 20%.

541a.d.

The Plague of Justinian, which began in 541 and continued on and off for nearly 200 years, killed 50 million people in the Middle East, Asia and the Mediterranean basin, according to some estimates. The plague is caused by bacteria that are spread by rats that were bitten by infected fleas.


1334

What's known as the Great Plague of London actually started in China in 1334 and spread along trade routes, wiping out entire towns. Florence, Italy, lost a third of its 90,000 residents in the first six months. Overall, Europe lost 25 million people.


1519

There were approximately 25 million people living in what is now called Mexico when Hernando Cortes arrived in 1519. A smallpox epidemic killed between 5 and 8 million of the native population in the following two years. Over the next century, less than 2 million would survive this and other communicable diseases brought by European explorers.


1633

Smallpox reached Massachusetts in 1633, brought by settlers from France, Great Britain and the Netherlands. It quickly spread to the Native American population, which had up until now been free of this communicable disease. It’s unclear how many were killed by smallpox, though historians estimate some 20 million may have died after the Europeans landed.


1793

Philadelphia was struck with a yellow fever epidemic in 1793 that killed a 10th of the city's 45,000-person population.


1860

The Modern Plague began in the 1860s and killed more than 12 million people in China, India and Hong Kong. It wasn’t until the 1890s that people figured out how the bacterial infection was being spread and a vaccine was created.

1901

A smallpox epidemic in Boston infected 1,500 people in 1901. There were 270 reported deaths.


1910

The largest plague outbreak in the 20th century occurred in Manchuria between 1910 and 1911. Approximately 60,000 people died. The plague still occasionally causes smaller outbreaks in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.


1918

The great flu pandemic of 1918 and 1919 is estimated to have killed between 30 million and 50 million people worldwide. Among them were 675,000 Americans.


1952

Polio peaked in the US. Nearly 60,000 children were infected and more than 3,000 died. Three years later vaccination began to prevent the communicable disease.




1984

In 1984, scientists identified the human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, as the cause of AIDS. That same year the deadly disease killed more than 5,500 people in the United States. Today more than 35 million people around the world are living with an HIV infection. More than 25 million people have died of AIDS since the first cases were reported.


2003

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, better known as SARS, was first identified in 2003 in China, though the first case is believed to have occurred in November 2002. By July more than 8,000 cases and 774 deaths had been reported.


2009

The global H1N1 flu pandemic may have killed as many as 575,000 people, though only 18,500 deaths were confirmed. The H1N1 virus is a type of swine flu, which is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by the type A influenza virus.


2010

An epidemic of cholera killed at least 10,000 people in Haiti in 2010 following a deadly earthquake that paralyzed the nation. The outbreak hampered efforts to rebuild. The United Nations would later apologize for initially denying claims that Nepalese peacekeepers brought the deadly disease to the country following the earthquake.


2012


In 2012, approximately 122,000 people worldwide died from the measles, a highly contagious disease caused by a virus. Typhoid fever kills around 216,000 people a year. Tuberculosis, an infectious bacterial disease, killed an estimated 1.3 million in 2012. These are some of the infectious diseases that most concern health officials today.


2014

The 2014 epidemic of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in West Africa was the largest Ebola outbreak on record. The virus killed more than 11,300 people before it was declared over in 2016.


2016

The World Health Organization declared a public health emergency of international concern over Zika virus predicting 3 to 4 million would be infected within a year as it was “spreading explosively” throughout the Americas. Zika is the first mosquito-borne disease to cause a birth defect. The devastating birth defect is microcephaly. The virus is also associated with miscarriage, stillbirth and other neurological deficits. While not deadly in the way other epidemics are, there is a big impact on future generations when fewer children are born because parents are afraid of the virus.

It would appear that the most drastic numbers of deaths are related to the ease of spread, transport of the contagion, early on in history it was along the trade routes for example. Ebola in west Africa was extremely dangerous but was not centred where access to large numbers of travellers could transport the disease. The ease of commuting today = greater likelyhood of pandemics.
I would think there would be international agreement that with ANY future outbreak W.H.O. would command very prompt total lock down of the initial outbreak site region or nation and all other Nations place immediate stoppages of travel to and from the region or nation of the outbreak site. That way the global health and economic cost is minimised and limited to the nation of outbreak origin.

 

[Smurf1976]

The one thing we have to do is keep negative politics out of the commentary.

Politics as such totally agreed. It's not helpful and rarely is.

We must not forget how we ended up in the situation however if a repeat is to be avoided. As we all know, that's heavily intertwined with a foreign government and the relationship other countries have with them. As such there's an unavoidable political dimension to avoiding a repeat of this situation and it's one that will likely become tense in due course.

Right now though the focus needs to be on dealing with the virus. Put the fire out first, but don't fail to deal with the cause to prevent a recurrence.

 

[Smurf1976]

From my perspective, I find it very difficult to post on this subject, it is one of if not the most distressing thing since the WW2 and if I can't add positive input, I would rather not post much at all.

Something I do hold concern about is the broader effect of all this on society.

There's a lot more to mental health than just sending someone off to a counselor and the fallout from all this is going to last into the 2030's most likely.

I don't really have a solution in mind beyond saying that anything I can come up with is at least substantially socialist from an economic perspective and this is all going to take a very long time.

I'm seeing a psychological outcome somewhat like WW2 or on a smaller scale a massacre eg Port Arthur. Any mention of the subject to someone involved will find the conversation abruptly shifted to something else. Nobody who fought in the war talked about the war once it was over. Likewise you'll be hard pressed to get anyone who was living on the Tasman Peninsula, or in Tasmania generally, at the time to say anything much about the events of April 1996. It happened, move on, let's not talk about it is the firmly held view of most.

Go forward and in due course children not yet born will learn that the pandemic of 2020 happened and their parents will confirm that what the teacher said is true but that's it, it won't be something anyone says much about. It won't be like the GFC where it's an acceptable topic for conversation and analysis. 50 years later sure, it'll be like WW2 with countless documentaries and so on, but not in the medium term whilst most people alive are the ones who lived through it all and wish to say nothing further about the whole experience other than that it must never be allowed to happen again.

That's my expectation anyway. Society is going to end up too scarred by the whole thing for anyone to want to talk about it afterward. Moving on and focusing firmly on the future will be what it's all about, the reason why being known to all but left unsaid.

On a lighter note, well there's this idea of putting a teddy bear in the window to cheer up young children in the vicinity. Now I don't have any teddy bears and Smurf being Smurf I've been looking for one that is in some way electric.......

Not my house or photo but in the hope of lifting the mood a bit I'll post this. It's on a house in Adelaide:

 

[qldfrog]

Interesting post by a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney, I will post up what he says, as I think it kind of supports what we have been saying. It is well worth reading start to finish IMO, it clarifies a lot of our ponderings and actually shows they are not ill informed but well thought out by our members.
.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-...experts-fight-this-virus-20200327-p54eht.html
From the article:
Do you have questions about COVID-19? Please, don’t ask your doctor. When it comes to coronavirus, most of us have no idea what we’re talking about.

I’m a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney. I’m caring for kids hospitalised with suspected or proven COVID-19, so I want to call out some colleagues contributing to the confusion.

There are two types of doctors. Those who see patients (clinicians) and those who look after the population (public health doctors). Clinicians are the doctors to see if you have COVID-19; but the vast majority of us have never managed a pandemic in our lives. In fact, the first time most of us heard of "flattening the curve" was March 2020.

Some public health doctors, however, model and manage outbreaks for a living. Many have done so for decades. These women and men advise the body of chief medical officers chaired by Professor Brendan Murphy, the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee. Its recommendations are made public every time they meet and the national cabinet is bound by them.

Enormous credit is due to the AHPPC and Scott Morrison. At a time when the World Health Organisation felt it unnecessary, Australia was among the first countries in the world to impose travel restrictions on China. It cannot be overstated how brave this decision was: Murphy acted before most of his international counterparts and Morrison enacted the advice verbatim, despite the enormous economic impact. We are not Italy, but we might have been if not for this foresight.

Unfortunately, Morrison and Murphy’s education campaign has been woeful. They have created an information vacuum, and my colleagues scramble to fill it. King of the castle is journalist and physician Dr Normal Swan.

Swan claims he is holding decision-makers to account, but where tough questions need asking, he prescribes answers instead. This is particularly evident in his longstanding call for more testing. It’s a strawman argument, of course. Everybody would like to do more testing but there are not enough tests. So, the real-world question is: how to best use a small number of tests for a population of 23 million people? It’s hard to answer that – because it takes several specialised professionals to do so.

Another pet peeve are his back-of-the-envelope extrapolations of "the curve". It can feel as if we are perpetually at the point of no return. But of course, if interpreting an epidemic curve was a matter of simple arithmetic, expert advisers to the AHPPC, Professors Jodie McVernon and Vanessa Johnston, would be out of a job.


During their National Press Club address they explained what really matters: the rate of uncontrolled transmission of COVID-19 within Australia’s borders. This remains a small but growing proportion of total cases. They explain comparisons with other countries is confounded by testing regimens, demographics and many other variables. Interpretation takes supercomputers, not eyeballs.

Perhaps the most momentous push has been for an immediate national lockdown, including closing all schools. Swan is not alone on this. There are outbreak professionals breaking ranks, such as professors Raina MacIntyre and Brendan Crabb. Their objections are understandable. MacIntyre was a member of an external review panel advising the AHPPC; their majority recommendation of a lockdown was rejected.

But as the chair of that review, Dr Shitij Kapur, points out, there is more for the government to consider than numbers of COVID-19 cases. Morrison tactlessly pits this as lives against the economy, but the real concern is that prolonged isolation and a deep recession will kill people, too.

Make no mistake: the situation we face is dire. Many Australians will die from COVID-19 and many deaths will not be preventable. But the decision-makers can manage two big causes of preventable death.

First, hospital failure. If our hospitals fail, anybody needing help during that time could die. A mother with a difficult labour. A brother with an asthma attack. A daughter in a car accident.

But second, poorly timed and disproportionate public health measures will kill people, too. Consider this: the highest rate of male suicide ever recorded in Australia was during the Great Depression. Studies during the SARS outbreak demonstrate significant rates of mental illness years after people were in isolation.

Rampant suicide and mental illness. Might this be Australia’s fate if we get the macabre balance wrong? Who do you think is in the best position to navigate the way? Outbreak experts with all the data? Or twitter’s take on a graph? Perhaps it’s time we all zip it, and let the professionals do the talking.

Ben Smith is a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney.

What specialists..real ones can not know until past the fact is how the population behaves.
And this is critical in the spread of the virus
A full mandated and enforced lock down removes that incertitude and tells the population it is bloody serious

Our current approach relies on expected behaviours..which probably differ based on regional areas, economic factors and age.
If my experience yesterday and some social media comments is representative, key parts of the population do not get it, and probably never will until directly affected so a Japan or South Korea approach can not work.
Is it better to scare people now? Or let them carry on dreaming of easy fix and then see the country in mindless fear when facing death , too late,and probably too long after the main danger is over.?

I am fully aware of the edge decision makers are working in: unemployment and bankruptcy kills, divorce and domestic violence resulting from lockdown kills
Then a full lockdown will save mostly older generation while the side deaths will be mostly 35 or above, mostly but not only
Has Australia taken the choice of saving some above others?
Yes.
And then what is the acceptable ratio?
We had a chance at the very beginning to cut it, we just missed it due to not being hard enough
Aka mandatory testing and lockdown of initial affected units..we are not China..and so lost that opportunity.too late now
And the blame can not be put solely on the government, after all people coming from abroad and told to self isolate did not or we would not be where we are going now
Hope lessons will be learnt for the next pandemic which may not be as "kind" as this one

 

[Dona Ferentes]

What a beautiful thread. Thanks to those who stayed awake. And contributed

I will talk about the effects of trauma elsewhere (maybe) but collective and delayed PTSD is going to be huge

 

[jbocker]

That's my expectation anyway. Society is going to end up too scarred by the whole thing for anyone to want to talk about it afterward. Moving on and focusing firmly on the future will be what it's all about, the reason why being known to all but left unsaid.

As an elder, I am 'thankful?' this pandemic is largely not affecting the younger generations. 'Good' old Mother Nature is giving us a big backhander to sort us out. Perhaps Humanity needs to knock things back down several pegs, economies being one of them. There will be others things like our influences on the environment and global weather.
We had better respect her as she tries to put things back in balance. I am sure she has another thing waiting for us if we don't.
AND as importantly to respect each other globally. We will need at least that for our future generations to survive.
Sorry, a bit deep, but this is time to have a good hard think of what is really important.

 

[Smurf1976]

Is it better to scare people now? Or let them carry on dreaming of easy fix and then see the country in mindless fear when facing death , too late,and probably too long after the main danger is over.?

I'm no doctor etc but what I don't understand is the following and I think that to the extent there has been any failing on the part of government it's with either doing it or explaining why it was done.

What we've done is carried on for ~2 months with people coming in from overseas, we've had cruise ships, we've had festivals and sporting events, we kept going with casinos and nightclubs and so on.

Now all of a sudden we're saying that the kids can't play on the swings in the park or play with their friends. A week ago we were still saying schools should be open.

Now to me all this looks much like someone who splurges money on upmarket cars, round the world trips flying first class, expensive alcohol and so on and then says sorry kids but you'll have to stop watching cartoons on the ABC because we can't afford electricity. And by the way sorry but no you can't have an ice cream they're too expensive.

Or I could say it's akin to the local council leaving a fire hydrant gushing out in the street for no good reason, all the water going straight down the drain, running 24/7 for a full two months and then saying that for the good of society we can't water the pot plants because the town's dam is just about dry.

Now if someone can give me a proper explanation for why this was a good approach then I'll gladly hear it but to me it doesn't look like one. Therein lies my frustration with government in all this.

If there's a sound logic behind it all then the public needs to be told what the overall plan is. Stop drip feeding step by step tightening of the rules and just tell us what the plan actually is. Tell us why we held the accelerator to the floor then promptly slammed on the brakes which is basically what we've done. Tell us what triggers the next step and then we can all watch the data. People aren't fools and "confidential" is anathema to most in 2020 when the expectation is that anything and everything is publicly available in real time.

 

[sptrawler]

I agree with you smurf, it does appear that there is a hope we can enact herd vaccination, time will tell.
Justmy opinion.

 

[matty77]

I guess they are trying to avoid bringing the economy to a grinding halt, they are trying to give the medical system time to prepare for what is coming, and also retail stores time to prepare to trade a different way, also trying to give teachers time to learn how to teach when kids are at home. All of these things Australia has no idea how to do, if it was thrown upon us instantly the public would panic.

The government are warming people up to the fact that things will be changing and trying not to panic the economy and business at the same time.

Also I believe they are trying to make it to school holidays for a full lockdown, again economically this does make sense.

The rates of new infections has steadied the last 24 hours in some states like SA and WA, for those states there is probably still a good change these measures will work.

I can see NSW going to full lockdown and being seperate from the rest of AUS for some time longer, and possibly VIC and QLD in that boat too.

NZ called the lockdown early, so will be interesting to see how AUS goes compared to NZ in the long term.

 

[qldfrog]

my thinking is the government wants the virus to spread but slowly, no real step is done to eliminate, just slow the process so that hospitals do not collapse
so my dire predictions in term of deaths in Australia, we will be a slower..maybe ..Italy..It is hard to control a virus with so many unknowns