WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[3 veiws of a secret]

I was kicking myself why I bought big into CTX (a few days ago),when WPL was hitting (most recent) rock bottom prices .....But now I brace myself ,when I hear the barrel of oil is DOWN in the US. No doubt long term investors in WPL must of picked this share when it was still $9~$14 years ago....they're still smiling but I would'nt be suprised to see oil hitting US$80 soon.

 

[The Mint Man]

Hey people.
Im sure you will be interested in this considering this is the WPL thread.
Ali Moore speaks with Don Voelte (lateline business)
Windows media (broadband): http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200611/r116163_367279.asx
Transcript: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200611/s1790668.htm
For real player go to transcript page, ditto for dial up users

Cheers

 

[Ken]

how sweet are the dividend forecast looking for woodside. projected earnings per share 329 cent.

where is the support level for woodside?

i am considering buying in if they reach $34

companies like these dont stop exploration...

 

[nizar]

how sweet are the dividend forecast looking for woodside. projected earnings per share 329 cent.

where is the support level for woodside?

i am considering buying in if they reach $34

companies like these dont stop exploration...

Ken im kinda disappointed to read a post from you without a price target.

Wats your target on this one? $200?

 

[michael_selway]

Ken im kinda disappointed to read a post from you without a price target.

Wats your target on this one? $200?

Hehe, but whats the POO assumtion for that price target?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2009
EPS 158.4 222.0 297.6 359.8
DPS 93.0 134.0 154.0 174.2

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 222.0 16.4 40.2%
Year Ending 30-12-07 297.6 12.2 34.1%

thx

MS

 

[nizar]

MS obviously you didnt get the joke.
Nevermind

 

[Kauri]

May soon be cooking on gas

 

[Ken]

hehe

i am in the green.

wpl. $200 in 50 years like that...

 

[56gsa]

agree with others - on 4 year trend lines and 1 year support/resistance this really does look like its bottomed... ST resistance at $38.50 to $38.80 and then more significant resistance at $40.50, but in not too distant future i think will test all time highs...

never bought this but considering it now for LT particularly for natural gas exposure...

 

[Sean K]

Agree above that this looks like it might be turning, but not confirmed IMO. Needs to break $40 to really be cooking again. Recent higher lows and seemingly out of the downtrend since April is promising. Will be interesting to watch if it gets to about the green circle for what I would probably call a potential breakout. (not holding)

 

[Dutchy3]

35.50 needs to hold big time for WPL else lower prices are in its future. Reasonable bounces through 36.00 in the past suggest that indeed this might be the case, coupled with reasonable volume increases at the time.

However the last three days of trading + the successive increases in volume on the run up to Friday are not positive.

I have a LONG option position (MARCH 07) so looking for a positive day in the next two weeks (max) else I might have to STOP and reverse.

 

[Gundini]

Hope you are right Dutchy, holding this one as well. Has been a scary couple of days

US Crude Futures:

Feb $56.25
Mar $57.36
Apr $58.32

So it appears the big sell off has peated for the moment
(Holding Rossary Beads as I say this)

Also I take heart from OPEC who have stated they would like to keep the oil price around $60. We may here of the taps being turned off at their next meeting. I have been all over WPL's website and all appears on track there. Just have to ride out the storm I think...

 

[Dutchy3]

Start of a bounce today? ...

 

[imaginator]

WPL at 36.07, do u think its the bottom?

Was at 36.09 this morning, then it suddenly shot to 36.27, now 36.10

 

[theasxgorilla]

$36 is a significant support level.

My interpretation of WPL at the moment is that it's formed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern. If it retraces the amount from the head to the neckline then it will retrace to around $30 which will be about 50% of the previous major range from $10 to $50.

With the news about some of WPLs financial woes and with the oil price not there to prop/cover them up, it would not surprise me if WPL keeps heading lower in the short to medium term.

 

[imaginator]

It dropped to 35.59 today, do u think it has breached resistance? Going any lower? I wonder if this is good to short. thanks

 

[Sean K]

$36 is a significant support level.

My interpretation of WPL at the moment is that it's formed a classic head-and-shoulders pattern. If it retraces the amount from the head to the neckline then it will retrace to around $30 which will be about 50% of the previous major range from $10 to $50.

With the news about some of WPLs financial woes and with the oil price not there to prop/cover them up, it would not surprise me if WPL keeps heading lower in the short to medium term.

Agree, and yes, perhaps a shorting opportunity. Target on that is around $30 ish.

As always though, markets are a fickle thing. Hugo's decision might have more repercussions, or there might be a disruption in the Mid East tonight....Also, it breached $36.00 in Nov only to spring back, allbeit temporarily....

 

[GreatPig]

it breached $36.00 in Nov only to spring back

And in September.

GP

 

[theasxgorilla]

Agree, and yes, perhaps a shorting opportunity. Target on that is around $30 ish.

As always though, markets are a fickle thing. Hugo's decision might have more repercussions, or there might be a disruption in the Mid East tonight....Also, it breached $36.00 in Nov only to spring back, allbeit temporarily....

Yes. The Daily Reckoning guys wrote a good blog y'day about what they thought could be the behaviour of someone like Chavez during a weakening of the oil price.

The thing to consider is that the oil price is probably correcting, but over the mid-to-long term it is up trending. Any shorting of a big oil production/exploration company like WPL (financial screw-ups aside) would need to be quite a cunning trade.

If I was going to short it I'd want to see a convincing weekly close (strong volume, strong bar) below $36. You might get 10% gross out the trade as it finds its way down to $30 and the bottom of the channel.

10% and a dividend or two from an ASX20 stock is okay but the thought of shorting anything on the ASX in this market makes me nervous

 

[Bush Trader]

A list of broker sentiments on the stock may give some insight into why the continued bounce back. Not that I trust Brokers, however many investors rely on their sentiment heavily to make decisions. An attractive percieved 16% ave target return is probably aiding the support. Bad production news or erosion of the Oil price supports are more likely erode sentiment in my opinion and thus a Broker Re-rate. Note JP Morgan are the only ones that are short the stock.

Information Source: FN Arena


WPL - WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED
Previous Closing Price $36.13
Average Target Price $42.21 16.8% upside
Sentiment Indicator(1 = Highest Rating, -1 = Lowest Rating) 0.6
Recommendation Overview
Broker Date Rating Recommendation Target Price % to Reach Target


Aspect Huntley 05-Jan-07 3 Hold - -
Update database.

Credit Suisse 01-Dec-06 1 Outperform $45.00 24.6%
Target $45.00 (was $49.00). The broker has cut its oil price forecasts, resulting in changes to its earnings estimates for the company. In 2007 and 2008 its profit forecasts are down 4% to $1,815m and $3,102m.
UBS 22-Nov-06 1 Buy 1 $44.64 23.6%
The broker notes the company's exploration program for 2007 offers significant potential, with Libya in particular representing upside of as much as $4.00 per share if drilling produces positive results. The broker continues to see the stock as offering long-term value. Valuation is $30.67.

SB Citigroup 20-Nov-06 1 Upgrade to Buy from Hold, Medium Risk $43.00 19.0%
Target $43.00 (was $43.20). The broker notes given its recent changes to forecasts the latest update on production has meant only minor changes to estimates. The upgrade in its rating follows recent price weakness, while it continues to see value in the stock longer-term.

Merrill Lynch 17-Nov-06 3 Neutral, Low Risk - -
The broker has been waiting for production downgrades, and got them. Problems at Chinguetti, for one, have been known for some time. The broker has reduced earnings by 5%, 21% and 13% in 2006-08. LNG rollover pricing looks more optimistic however, but the broker warns a premium for growth is built into the WPL price that may be under threat given the production problems in oil.

JP Morgan 17-Nov-06 3 Neutral $35.50 - 1.7%
Production downgrades dropped production to levels even below the broker's low-marker forecasts. This results in a 4% drop in valuation. Target falls from $37.00 to $35.50.

ABN Amro 17-Nov-06 3 Hold $37.80 4.6%
Target $37.80 (was $39.00) The broker notes the company's investor day confirmed downgrades to production in 2006 and 2007 and reserves at Chinguetti and Enfield. It also notes production guidance for FY08 now appears too high, so the overall impact is a cut in forecasts, with earnings in 2006 down 5% to $1,397.3m and 2007 by 20% to $1,651m.

Macquarie 17-Nov-06 1 Outperform $42.50 17.6%
Target falls from $47.50 to $42.50 on production downgrades. The broker notes WPL was already trading at a decent premium to valuation, and that this last downgrade might hurt market sentiment in the short term. However, the broker believes in the bigger picture, and is retaining Outperform.

Deutsche Bank 17-Nov-06 1 Buy $47.00 30.1%
Don't panic, says the broker. Yes - the production downgrades are a disappointment, but not the end of the world. On a longer term view, WPL's attraction lies in the global LNG "mega-trend". The broker has reduced 2007 earnings by 21.5%. Target falls from $48.20 to $47.00. But, given above, the broker suggests WPL is "still a BUY".