WDS - Woodside Energy Group

[Knobby22]

To add to that, Woodside will be operating a lot more fields in two years time expecially their new gas filed which will be a real earner.

 

[GreatPig]

For all those EW gurus out there, here's my current markup of WPL. Trying to decide if it's perhaps starting another wave 1 right now.

The way I see it, the unmarked wave starting in Feb 2005 could have been the wave 1, which would make what I have as wave 3 actually wave 5, but then I can't see any clean A-B-C down from there.

Do you think WPL suits a wave pattern at all, and if so, how would you have it marked?

Cheers,
GP

 

[michael_selway]

For all those EW gurus out there, here's my current markup of WPL. Trying to decide if it's perhaps starting another wave 1 right now.

The way I see it, the unmarked wave starting in Feb 2005 could have been the wave 1, which would make what I have as wave 3 actually wave 5, but then I can't see any clean A-B-C down from there.

Do you think WPL suits a wave pattern at all, and if so, how would you have it marked?

Cheers,
GP

they keep increasing the 2008 forecast, maybe something good for the future

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 231.5 295.0 341.0
DPS 93.0 139.0 148.0 220.0

Was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 243.0 272.0 294.0
DPS 93.0 141.5 146.5 187.0

Was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 226.0 260.0 249.7
DPS 93.0 140.0 146.5 187.0

thx

MS

 

[Captain G]

Hi All, I don't understand why the SP has constantly been falling over the past week or so, while the oil price has been on the up?? Is it because WPL has been viewed as over priced etc ??
Cheers, Capt.

 

[michael_selway]

Hi All, I don't understand why the SP has constantly been falling over the past week or so, while the oil price has been on the up?? Is it because WPL has been viewed as over priced etc ??
Cheers, Capt.

yeah i little bit overpriced

should be around forward terminal PE of 10, so around $32.00+

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 233.4 316.5 315.0
DPS 93.0 135.0 169.0 201.1

thx

MS

 

[Nick Radge]

BOTTOM LINE
2/8:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD
7/7:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
2/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 4 secs)
The advance we were watching as at the last review terminated within a few days of that update. The corrective decline continues and a break down through $40.00 is highly probable. As you can see on this chart, the support area at $38.00 is significant. A break through that zone is disastrous. The evidence is mounting on various fronts now that we will indeed give that zone a solid nuzzle and if we do break lower the target price is $27.00. Just to confirm that's not a misprint, $27.00. Obviously that's a difficult statement to comprehend, especially since Oil is bullish and WPL was only recently at $50.00. But let me also point out that it was less than 12-months ago that this very stock was at $27.00 and 24-months ago it was sub-$18.00.
7/7:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 32 secs)
The stock is tracing out the expected path discussed about a month ago. At that time we were looking for further weakness followed by a bounce. That bounce is now upon us and is in the general area where a reversal of price should be expected. An aggressive trader could sell on a breach of Thursdays low and place a stop above today's high. I would expect a move back to where we have just come from, but again, any increase in momentum may be enough to slide through there. Those lows at $38.00 will be a significant challenge because they have acted as support back in February/March as well. Bearish.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
2/8:
Wave-B is in place and wave-C is now unfolding. The appearance of the head & shoulders (H&S) top is not a surprise and is common place within the realms of Elliott Wave analysis. H&S tops are a classic pattern that has been one of the only technical patterns that have been accepted by the academics. The neckline runs though $38.00 and will now be a major point of focus for many a technician. The two serious tests of that level, 16 February and 14 June, both showed very strong reactive tendencies so a third test will represent a significant point of "make or break". Ideally we should see this wave-C trace out in a 5-wave pattern but as yet that doesn't seem to be showing itself. One can only be a seller of rallies at present.
7/7:
The clear 5-wave decline into the mid-June lows makes that low a clear wave-A or -1 of a larger decline yet to unfold. The strength since has resolved itself in 3-waves clearly creating a corrective wave-B or -2. A move back through $43.20 will confirm this strength as a correction and invalidate any case for a new 5-wave structure higher. We have not quite hit the sell zone as outlined within the strategy paper, but one could certainly look to use any swing lower from here as confirmation that a larger decline may start to unfold. The risk/reward on such an aggressive entry would certainly make it worthwhile.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

 

[TjamesX]

BOTTOM LINE
2/8:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD
7/7:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: HOLD

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
2/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 4 secs)
The advance we were watching as at the last review terminated within a few days of that update. The corrective decline continues and a break down through $40.00 is highly probable. As you can see on this chart, the support area at $38.00 is significant. A break through that zone is disastrous. The evidence is mounting on various fronts now that we will indeed give that zone a solid nuzzle and if we do break lower the target price is $27.00. Just to confirm that's not a misprint, $27.00. Obviously that's a difficult statement to comprehend, especially since Oil is bullish and WPL was only recently at $50.00. But let me also point out that it was less than 12-months ago that this very stock was at $27.00 and 24-months ago it was sub-$18.00.
7/7:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 32 secs)
The stock is tracing out the expected path discussed about a month ago. At that time we were looking for further weakness followed by a bounce. That bounce is now upon us and is in the general area where a reversal of price should be expected. An aggressive trader could sell on a breach of Thursdays low and place a stop above today's high. I would expect a move back to where we have just come from, but again, any increase in momentum may be enough to slide through there. Those lows at $38.00 will be a significant challenge because they have acted as support back in February/March as well. Bearish.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
2/8:
Wave-B is in place and wave-C is now unfolding. The appearance of the head & shoulders (H&S) top is not a surprise and is common place within the realms of Elliott Wave analysis. H&S tops are a classic pattern that has been one of the only technical patterns that have been accepted by the academics. The neckline runs though $38.00 and will now be a major point of focus for many a technician. The two serious tests of that level, 16 February and 14 June, both showed very strong reactive tendencies so a third test will represent a significant point of "make or break". Ideally we should see this wave-C trace out in a 5-wave pattern but as yet that doesn't seem to be showing itself. One can only be a seller of rallies at present.
7/7:
The clear 5-wave decline into the mid-June lows makes that low a clear wave-A or -1 of a larger decline yet to unfold. The strength since has resolved itself in 3-waves clearly creating a corrective wave-B or -2. A move back through $43.20 will confirm this strength as a correction and invalidate any case for a new 5-wave structure higher. We have not quite hit the sell zone as outlined within the strategy paper, but one could certainly look to use any swing lower from here as confirmation that a larger decline may start to unfold. The risk/reward on such an aggressive entry would certainly make it worthwhile.

Wow that is a big call.....

I'm not a chartist - I look more to fundamentals. Woodside (unlike a lot of other aussie oil and gas co's) has a lot of projects coming on stream in the next few years - so they won't need to find a lot in the future to impress. Gas, LNG, Oil - they've got it all. All they need is for the prices to stay high. Eventhough Chinguetti has had problems the market has already wiped the total value of this resource from its share price.

I have bought into them recently (admittedly a bit early) as a hedge against oil prices continuing to go up and general supply demand tightness in liquified energy through the next 10 years.

My humble prediction based on fundamentals - price will not breach $40 and will rebound towards $50 in the medium term. If oil continues above $70 for the next 12 months, WPL will head towards $60 as more people realise the quality of their assets (barring any major market wide collapse).

However if in the short medium term it does proceed as you suggest, it will not be the first time technicals have triumphed over fundamentals. long long term I reckon WPL is a goer for those who think oil aint coming back down.

See where it goes....

TJ

 

[Knobby22]

Wow that is a big call.....

I'm not a chartist - I look more to fundamentals. Woodside (unlike a lot of other aussie oil and gas co's) has a lot of projects coming on stream in the next few years - so they won't need to find a lot in the future to impress. Gas, LNG, Oil - they've got it all. All they need is for the prices to stay high. Eventhough Chinguetti has had problems the market has already wiped the total value of this resource from its share price.

I have bought into them recently (admittedly a bit early) as a hedge against oil prices continuing to go up and general supply demand tightness in liquified energy through the next 10 years.

My humble prediction based on fundamentals - price will not breach $40 and will rebound towards $50 in the medium term. If oil continues above $70 for the next 12 months, WPL will head towards $60 as more people realise the quality of their assets (barring any major market wide collapse).

However if in the short medium term it does proceed as you suggest, it will not be the first time technicals have triumphed over fundamentals. long long term I reckon WPL is a goer for those who think oil aint coming back down.

See where it goes....

TJ

It's fallen due to the Mauritius downgrade. Long term though, a safe hold. It has to rise as long as oil doesn't fall heavily. I doubt it will, though there is room for a 10% oil price drop.

 

[michael_selway]

yeah i little bit overpriced

should be around forward terminal PE of 10, so around $32.00+

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 158.4 233.4 316.5 315.0
DPS 93.0 135.0 169.0 201.1

thx

MS

Actually I should rephrase

When a compnay has limited growth left (WPL from 2007-2008 onwards), one should also look at sustained terminal dividends (grossed up even), not only EPS and terminal PE of 10.

So currently Risk Free Bank Interest is 6% pa (before tax), so thats yrou benchmark return.

So in 2008, WPL can pay about $2 per share dividend so 2/0.06 = $33

However if grossed up, ie before tax dividend is 2/0.7 = $2.86 per share

So $2.86/0.06 = $48 = absolute max anyone would be willing to pay now (in a risk free world eg no possibility of SARS no Terror)

But obviously there are risks, like higher/lower oil prices, production problems, external risks etc

so $35-40 is a good HOLD price i guess

thx

MS

 

[Knobby22]

Actually I should rephrase

When a compnay has limited growth left (WPL from 2007-2008 onwards), one should also look at sustained terminal dividends (grossed up even), not only EPS and terminal PE of 10.

So currently Risk Free Bank Interest is 6% pa (before tax), so thats yrou benchmark return.

So in 2008, WPL can pay about $2 per share dividend so 2/0.06 = $33

However if grossed up, ie before tax dividend is 2/0.7 = $2.86 per share

So $2.86/0.06 = $48 = absolute max anyone would be willing to pay now (in a risk free world eg no possibility of SARS no Terror)

But obviously there are risks, like higher/lower oil prices, production problems, external risks etc

so $35-40 is a good HOLD price i guess

thx

MS

Michael

You are treating WPL as Woolworths!
What about blue sky and the very important point that we may have reached peak oil?
Ignoring the peak oil scenario blue sky includes some of the exploration rights they have and are taking including the Libyan fields which could be big.

 

[nizar]

Agree with Knobby on this one

The big oil companies with the most reserves are best to hold right now and for the forseeable future...

WPL with 1.3billion barrels of oil equivalent is looking good

Chinguetti should add 30% to the bottom line and then you have have Tiof, and im also expecting price of natural gas to strengthen somewhat looking at the hot summer in the US at the moment

And look at chart - downside from here is very limited - the big boys never let WPL fall below $40

 

[pacer]

Big head and shoulders, hit below $40 look to fall to $38 at least, if not then $39 and a continue up to $45......too much new oils being found though....shale stuff anyway....the US has hidden untapped reserves...trust me....500 years worth but at what cost to the environment!!!!!!!!

find new technology in power and buy suziki etc....motorcycles are the way to go...especialy scooters....gonna get on myself.

 

[Nick Radge]

...the big boys never let WPL fall below $40

The big boys must still be out to lunch..$38.37 lows. It'll need a move back above $40.05 to get back to neutral territory again and above $47.05 to get bulled up.

 

[michael_selway]

Big head and shoulders, hit below $40 look to fall to $38 at least, if not then $39 and a continue up to $45......too much new oils being found though....shale stuff anyway....the US has hidden untapped reserves...trust me....500 years worth but at what cost to the environment!!!!!!!!

find new technology in power and buy suziki etc....motorcycles are the way to go...especialy scooters....gonna get on myself.

500 years of reserves?

wow thats heaps!

where did u get that from?

thx

MS

 

[WaySolid]

Even the Saudi Oil minister only says don't worry be happy for the next 50 years. I consider him one of the worlds most dangerous people presently.

500 years supply, ok great.

Recently saw that Australia had enough oil to supply our present needs, but we don't have any refining capacity which would be a particulary apt Australian story I thought.

Haven't been following WPL since I retired from trading equities but it would have to be one of my bottom drawer stocks if the share market was to be closed for 10 years starting tomorrow.

 

[pacer]

Well I was right again!....and again......

Graph looks a little sick, but with a little up trend starting...lets see how we go......

And Nizar........stop hiding in the bushes......lol

 

[pacer]

Agree with Knobby on this one

The big oil companies with the most reserves are best to hold right now and for the forseeable future...

WPL with 1.3billion barrels of oil equivalent is looking good

Chinguetti should add 30% to the bottom line and then you have have Tiof, and im also expecting price of natural gas to strengthen somewhat looking at the hot summer in the US at the moment

And look at chart - downside from here is very limited - the big boys never let WPL fall below $40

Haha....learn the game son

 

[pacer]

MY MATE NEEDS SERIOUS HELP....CAN ANYONE DO A CHART ANALYSIS RIGHT NOW...EVEN A BASIC ONE......

I recon it has just gone below the small up trend lows, and also the two previous big tops, so would probably fall further...not looking good for him!

It is all very iffy and ugly on the chart to me and my limited knowledge of charting in the short term. (looking at 1 year graph here)

News on oil looks to be very bearish too with noone taking any notice of the cuts in production, to increase prices......

I like the guy, but he is in to deep for his own good again, and if he looses another 20c on the sp he will have lost a bucket load.......and NO, it is not me pretending to be the story teller.......I realy want this guy to make, not break, before he learns some real lessons...he's also my mechanic, and has become a good mate over the last few weeks.....we met here on ASF first though and found out we live close by...well actualy we met 2 years ago...he remembers me and my old fj45 troop carrier, when I broke down...does mobile mechanical around town.

Anyway if it falls his wife is gonna kill him, because she wants a new couch for XMAS and he's done almost all the doh on going long CFDs 3 days ago....I tried to give the hint to take the loss after the first day but, it diddn't sink in....I hate to TELL people what to do, just give some advice....it's not my money and if I was to say "do this" and it went the other way I would become the JUDAS.......

Baisicaly...I think he will he fall on his sword....rose back a little in aftermarket trade but I don't hold any high hopes at this stage.......even told him to get a buddah and some joss sticks.....maybe even YOGI can help here........definitely not my type of graph to jump onto.....and getting volatile....only just started showing him the baisics too....double tops and trends etc.........

HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.....

I'm doing ok....3k profit in the last 13 days!

 

[Sean K]

Pacer, oil is short term ordinary. Anyone holding needs a medium to long term view. If I needed cash short term, or to invest elsewhere, I probably wouldn't have it in a pure oil company atm. Oil inventories are up and even the geopolitical issues and weather that normally support oil (Middle East, hurricane season) have not eventuated.

Having said that, it could only take one major event for oil to hit bottom and rise again taking WPL with it. But who can predict the timing of that? Perhaps the only thing guaranteed is winter coming on in Nth USA which will consume a bit of heating oil. But, driving season will be over....

WPL on the chart looks unhealthy. Lower highs, lower lows, resistance at $40.00 will be hard to break now, and after $36.00, next target is $34.00 ish....On a pure chart play there's no way I would buy this right now, but if I had a long term investment view I'd hold. WPL is a big quality company, who is on many model portfolio lists. I believe it could be a takeover target as well, and at these lower prices will be a tasty morsel for a major player, if the gov allow it.

I am not financial advisor so I can not tell your mate what HE should do, but if I needed money tomorrow for something critical, like food or beer, I'd cash in and wait for the sun to start shining on oil and WPL once again.

 

[pacer]

Awesome Ken......baisicaly summed up my view...will pass that on rightaway to my mate...and no , it is not me, and will keep the privacy intact!......thanks again....you are a legend!.....and luv all who reply!