Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

All Cashed Up and Nowhere To Go

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Dona Ferentes said:
luckily, extra-bourse activities have seen me sit, and sit, and wait and watch, of late. At least the accumulating dosh, with dividend flows adding to the balance, is earning some interest. Am finding little that may not be cheaper soon.

For many, the higher for longer rates reality hasn't really sunk in, nor froth associated with ideas that may not execute to implementing.
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but that was Sept. Late Nov, the boring fund added to 2 LICs. And the last few days, rats n mice are being driven from the property.

A side hustle is occupying my time, and the weather's nice.
 
Knobby22 said:
When was it made?
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How The Benner Cycle Predicts 100+ Years of Market Movement​


Samuel Benner was a farmer from the 1800s who wanted to understand how market cycles worked. In 1875, he published a book forecasting business and commodity prices. He identified years of panic, years of good times, and years of hard times.

Panic Years: These are years when the market panicked, either buying or selling a stock irrationally until its price skyrocketed or plummeted beyond anyone’s wildest expectations.

Good Times: Years Benner identified as times of high prices and the best time to sell stocks, values, and assets of all kinds.

Hard Times: In these years, Benner recommends buying stocks, goods, and assets and holding them until the “boom” years of good times, then unload.


100+ Years of “Sure Thing”

At the bottom of his card, Benner wrote “Sure thing.” and for 100 years he’s been close to perfect. As a prosperous Ohio Farmer, the 1873 market panic was a blow for Samual Benner, and it wiped him out. When trying to understand why this happened, Benner discovered the notion of market cycles.

As a farmer, Samuel knew that the seasonal cycles affected crops, which then affect supply and demand, which affects the price. Benner looked deeper into these cycles and found an 11-year cycle in corn and pig prices with peaks every 5/6 years. This matches the 11-year solar cycle. Benner figured that this solar cycle affects crop yield, affecting revenue, supply/demand, and price.
 
divs4ever said:
and the pivotal question is , will this chart ( whether real or fake ) keep working in our lifetime ??
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I think the main thing to take away from the chart is that most traded commodities have a supply and demand phase and that the price fluctuates with these phases.

Trying to time or understand the exact time of the phasing is very difficult and is a science in itself. You could dig in a bit further and then look at over and undersupplies. A good example would be the current housing market in Australia with under-supply and you then have lithium stocks falling with over-supply in the market.
 
I’ve sold all my PM’s and many yappers and losers to mitigate CGT so I’ve been spending some time in the garden sitting under a tree.

The koel bird must have found a mate as he is the only bird not singing, the fragrance of flowers is enchanting and butterflies flit from tree to tree.

And I am bored shitless.

So where to next, Comrades ?

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I’ve sold all my PM’s and many yappers and losers to mitigate CGT so I’ve been spending some time in the garden sitting under a tree.

The koel bird must have found a mate as he is the only bird not singing, the fragrance of flowers is enchanting and butterflies flit from tree to tree.

And I am bored shitless.

So where to next, Comrades ?

gg
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Yes, not much value wise.

Lately, I've been thinking about wine investing.

I have my own personal stash, which has grown nicely over the past 30 years, but I always thought of that as a hobby collection.

The China ban on our wines has caused suppliers to sell at low prices that normally they would never contemplate. Penfolds have had some decent sales over the past 6 or so months, releasing various vintages of the likes of Bin311, 407, 389, 23 at worthy prices.

If I had a bigger cellar, I would be stocking up with investment buys of wines and selling in 5 to 20 years.
 
divs4ever said:
maybe my memory is fading , but don't remember a lot of bargains on the ASX this year ...but i grabbed a farm and some livestock instead ... so maybe it was ( just not in the stocks i liked )
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That chart isn't just stocks as it mentions, "Corner Lots", goods and values of all kinds. So you're in the mix, yeah?
 
JohnDe said:
Yes, not much value wise.

Lately, I've been thinking about wine investing.

I have my own personal stash, which has grown nicely over the past 30 years, but I always thought of that as a hobby collection.

The China ban on our wines has caused suppliers to sell at low prices that normally they would never contemplate. Penfolds have had some decent sales over the past 6 or so months, releasing various vintages of the likes of Bin311, 407, 389, 23 at worthy prices.

If I had a bigger cellar, I would be stocking up with investment buys of wines and selling in 5 to 20 years.
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maybe a bigger, better cellar is the first step ( you can always branch out into whisky if bored )
 
divs4ever said:
maybe a bigger, better cellar is the first step ( you can always branch out into whisky if bored )
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The problem with that is the cost of building and supplies is hideously too high.

I suppose there is always professional storage options like Cellarit but that can become costly. I have a very small collection stored interstate, only because I found wines with years that are significant for me.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I’ve sold all my PM’s and many yappers and losers to mitigate CGT so I’ve been spending some time in the garden sitting under a tree.

The koel bird must have found a mate as he is the only bird not singing, the fragrance of flowers is enchanting and butterflies flit from tree to tree.

And I am bored shitless.

So where to next, Comrades ?

gg
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you're lucky, just walked along the beach. .. bluebottles aplenty when the trade winds blow, and now shearwaters, aka mutton birds giving up the ghost before Bass Strait.... adverse winds

but I've just had a sell, first in ages, now my buys are in the queue
 
JohnDe said:
Yes, not much value wise.

Lately, I've been thinking about wine investing.

I have my own personal stash, which has grown nicely over the past 30 years, but I always thought of that as a hobby collection.

The China ban on our wines has caused suppliers to sell at low prices that normally they would never contemplate. Penfolds have had some decent sales over the past 6 or so months, releasing various vintages of the likes of Bin311, 407, 389, 23 at worthy prices.

If I had a bigger cellar, I would be stocking up with investment buys of wines and selling in 5 to 20 years.
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Good thinking but there is no decent wine that would survive in my cellar longer than about two or three weeks :p
 
What's next?

On the macro level, I'm holding my PMS, I'm thinking maybe short AUD and long American indices, particularly mid caps...

... Maybe short crude.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I’ve sold all my PM’s and many yappers and losers to mitigate CGT so I’ve been spending some time in the garden sitting under a tree.

The koel bird must have found a mate as he is the only bird not singing, the fragrance of flowers is enchanting and butterflies flit from tree to tree.

And I am bored shitless.

So where to next, Comrades ?

gg
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Hmm, well, gg, perhaps the beer garden with a cooling glass of lemonade
 
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