I get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.
The war continues and moves into more and more savage fighting.
The latest and possibly most troubling situation is the "last stand" fight in Mariupol.
The last and strongest of the Ukrainian defenders are embedded in a vast steel plant. The Russians will have to destroy the plant piece by piece to "win" this battle and ensure they hold Mariupol.
This steel plant is an integral part of Europes infrastructure. Intact it pumped out 4m tonnes of steel a year, 3.5m tonnes of hot metal and 1.2m tonnes of rolled steel. That is a big slice of European basic infrastructure. WTF will happen if this plant is trashed ? What will it take to repair it ? What happens in the meantime ?
‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol
Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders
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Smoke and fire have been seen coming from the Azovstal iron and steelworks, where Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are concentrated. Photograph: Maxar Tech/AFP/Getty Images
Reuters
Fri 15 Apr 2022 12.27 BSTLast modified on Fri 15 Apr 2022 16.03 BST
Explosions rumbled and smoke rose this week from a steelmaking district in besieged Mariupol where dwindling Ukrainian forces are holed up as Russia tries to take full control of its biggest city yet.
The Azovstal iron and steelworks, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants, has become an apocalyptic redoubt for Ukrainian forces who are outgunned, outnumbered and surrounded seven weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the east of the southern port devastated by weeks of shelling, the plant lies in an industrial area that looks out to the Sea of Azov and covers more than 11 sq km (4.25 sq miles), containing myriad buildings, blastfurnaces and rail tracks.
‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol
Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaderswww.theguardian.com
Thanks @moXJO for the intelligent commentary on Mariupol. I've been following it on Osinttechnical and related channels of information.It's literally the last stand for them. Surrounded on all sides unless they go for a swim.
Map with current alerts
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-april-russian-army-bombed-mariupol-with-longrange-tu22m3
I get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.
Despite what the msm pundits say I have always thought there is a risk that the emerging economies will tire of the west perceived dominance and start rallying together in a new trading block not based on the USD.well this could get very complicated Russia has several options i can see they have SO FAR chosen not to take , China will be watching and thinking , while India is looking around and re-assessing future moves , we will have to keep an eye on Pakistan and also watch Afghanistan ( which could get very complicated all by itself .. say what if China poured money and infrastructure into developing Afghanistan , abandoning areas of South America and Africa ... and possibly Australia )
not obvious yet will be several other nations that are sick of US and EU ( and IMF ) blackmail and bullying , and might start earnestly searching for reliable trading partners ( like the on again/off again Latin American trading bloc ) and don't forget South-East Asia will be reassessing options as well
I am not a soldier but why do you need to fight your enemy trapped inside a building. If you don't want to destroy the building to get them because the building can be used as an future asset surely you can just starve them out. It appears the Russians have a supply route and the Ukraine soldiers are isolated.It does look like a last stand fight. But the cost to the Russian attackers, the huge industrial plant and the Putin government could also be catastrophic.
Traditionally in battles the attackers leave an exit route to encourage the enemy to get out. Fighting determined, desperate soldiers with nothing left to lose is a recipe for a a bloodbath.
Hand to hand combat against a prepared force in the network of buildings would be a nightmare. This would make the likelihood of some massive bombing/chemical attack far more likely. So if one wants an anxiety attack consider how the world would react to such a decision by the Russians.
Cheers @basilio understood, focus on the title thread.I started this thread in the Business Investment Economics thread to maybe focus on the economic /social impact of the war. For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.
There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.
Some 45% to 54% of the world's semiconductor-grade neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, comes from two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from the companies and market research firm Techcet. Global neon consumption for chip production reached about 540 metric tons last year, Techcet estimates.
You can't tell me the Kremlin wasn't aware of this Neon fact.More than half of the world’s neon is produced by a handful of companies in Ukraine, according to Peter Hanbury, a semiconductor analyst at research firm Bain & Co.
Those companies include Mariupol-based Ingas, as well as Cryoin and Iceblick, which are based in Odesa.
For various reasons, economists have become interested in investigating the causes and effects of war and other armed conflict (e.g., Coyne and Mathers 2011).
This article uses a consistent measurement of these forms of violence across space and time to conduct a rigorous quantitative analysis of the effect of war on economic growth.
Conceptually, the total cost of war includes three parts: (1) the opportunity cost of the resources used to prosecute war, (2) the loss of lives and destruction of physical and human capital during the war, and (3) the reduction of GDP per capita as measured during and following the war. The focus of this study is on the third part.
As the Ukrainian "special military operation" keeps on keeping on, the world has been forced into having a major rethink on what a protracted conflict means to all trading partners, businesses big and small and to the rest of us, on a personal level.
It worked for 40 yearsGlobalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.
Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.
I don’t think any one has ever claimed that globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain shortages.Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.
Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.
I know people that smoked cigarettes for 40 years then died of lung cancer. I also know people that lived off the hard work, sacrifice and inherited wealth of the forefathers for 40 years or more before the squandered it all.It worked for 40 years
It's actually the opposite.Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.
Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.
Your confusing globalisation with international trade. International trade has existed for about as long as there has been humans and will continue to exist as globalisation continues to fall apart in less than a generation or close to it.It's actually the opposite.
Globalisation is simply the difference between independence and interdependence, and there is now a return to the concept of manufacturing independence so that countries don't suffer supply shocks.
Smart manufacturers overcome this problem by building in supply chain redundancies, and Tesla's battery purchasing arrangement is a prime example.
Russia's attack on Ukraine will certainly impact food security as the 2 nations are responsible for over a quarter of global wheat output. On the industrial front Ukraine is a major contributor to Europe's iron and steel manufacturing capacity.
While iron and steel capacity is not necessarily tied to geography, agriculture is, so there is no quick fix to replacing lost agricultural production.
What do you think globalisation means?Your confusing globalisation with international trade. International trade has existed for about as long as there has been humans and will continue to exist as globalisation continues to fall apart in less than a generation or close to it.
Massive arms supplies to Ukraine are depleting Western armories just as governments fear they may need weapons for their own defence.
Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.I am not a soldier but why do you need to fight your enemy trapped inside a building. If you don't want to destroy the building to get them because the building can be used as an future asset surely you can just starve them out. It appears the Russians have a supply route and the Ukraine soldiers are isolated.
Either way it's horrifying to think what could happen.
I meant international as different people's in different places as has been done since ancient times. Yes nations is not the appropriate word but it would have done most people in an honest conversation that aren't nitpicking at words.What do you think globalisation means?
It is you who is confused here.
Given that the very concept of "nations" is historically recent, you have further confused the ancient concept of trade between people with trade between nations.
Furthermore, your idea that globalisation is falling apart is more confusion still as international alliances will foster strengthening of ties rather than weakening.
A horror story unfolding.Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.
No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines.
But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.
I remember reading testimony from a civilian who managed to to flee Mariupol a week ago, along the lines of going through 15 Russki checkpoints on the flight to safety. So it would likely be an impossibility to break through lines to provide relief.Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.
No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines.
But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.
The Russians and their proxies appear to be preparing to declare victory in the Battle of Mariupol, as Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin opened a United Russia party office in the city
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