War threat in Ukraine

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gaps in the narrative .... nobody's fault but mine, I guess, for putting the weevil (a cereal pest) on ignore.

Some of the replies make sense now, but that's the way its gotta be.

I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle

Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted

I believe the moderation could be more assertive from @Joe Blow and @Sean K .

This is a great disappointment to me as a long term member of ASF.

There is a difference between differing opinions, friendly and unfriendly banter AND Trolling.

gg

 

[Value Collector]

It's actually the opposite.
Globalisation is simply the difference between independence and interdependence, and there is now a return to the concept of manufacturing independence so that countries don't suffer supply shocks.
Smart manufacturers overcome this problem by building in supply chain redundancies, and Tesla's battery purchasing arrangement is a prime example.
Russia's attack on Ukraine will certainly impact food security as the 2 nations are responsible for over a quarter of global wheat output. On the industrial front Ukraine is a major contributor to Europe's iron and steel manufacturing capacity.
While iron and steel capacity is not necessarily tied to geography, agriculture is, so there is no quick fix to replacing lost agricultural production.

I actually don’t even think globalisation is the main problem, if anything it was the move to “just in time manufacturing” that caused the system to not be able to cope with supply chains that slowed.

But Australia is struggling with supply chains that are local to, eg it’s impossible to get frozen chips for the last couple of months, apparently due to labour shortages due to covid isolations.

Of course the minute the supply chain slows because of international covid lock downs we blame globalisation, but exactly the same thing is happening locally, so I blame covid, not globalisation.

 

[moXJO]

I'm more of a "never ignore anyone".
Half the time there's common ground on other issues.

 

[Value Collector]

I'm more of a "never ignore anyone".
Half the time there's common ground on other issues.

I don’t ignore just because I disagree with people, but I will ignore if the person is not approaching discussions with intellectual honesty or has their head cabbaged up with cynicism and just wants to grind their favourite axe.

 

[againsthegrain]

I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle

Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted

I believe the moderation could be more assertive from @Joe Blow and @Sean K .

This is a great disappointment to me as a long term member of ASF.

There is a difference between differing opinions, friendly and unfriendly banter AND Trolling.

gg

2 of those accounts were made just around 2 weeks within of each other and in the last 4-5 weeks... coincidence? maybe

 

[Joe Blow]

I've just taken a quick look at this thread. I have a couple of comments.

Only an inhuman psychopath directly profiting from the war budget could calculate that the Afghanistan war was a success. Then on your next breath claiming a small increase in the cost of living due to the Ukraine war is a small sacrifice compared to the suffering of the Ukraine people. You are a fraud and a hypocrite.

If you are going to participate in debate and discussion then keep it civil, don't put words in people's mouths, and back up your positions with well reasoned argument. If you are uncertain about what someone is saying, then ask them to clarify instead of going on the attack and hurling insults, which will just cause the level of debate to degenerate further.

I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle

Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted

I believe the moderation could be more assertive from @Joe Blow and @Sean K .

This is a great disappointment to me as a long term member of ASF.

There is a difference between differing opinions, friendly and unfriendly banter AND Trolling.

gg

It's Easter GG. I've been taking a bit of a break. I think Sean has too. If a post goes over the line can you please report it. I think there is some minor trolling here, but it's also clearly an emotive topic, and this is causing some hand wringing, irrational debate and emotional outbursts, which is to be expected.

To all: Please keep it civil and constructive. Try and keep emotion out of the debate and be respectful and courteous to others, even when you disagree with them. I will not take kindly to any trolling or disruptive conduct. Have a happy Easter!

 

[rederob]

Don

I meant international as different people's in different places as has been done since ancient times. Yes nations is not the appropriate word but it would have done most people in an honest conversation that aren't nitpicking at words.

Don't project your confusion on to me. It sounds like you think the word globalisation is interchangeable with this practice.

Your points are back to front, and if you are going to suggest I am confused, then show it to be the case rather than accuse me of nitpicking.

 

[JohnDe]

I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle

Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted

I believe the moderation could be more assertive from @Joe Blow and @Sean K .

This is a great disappointment to me as a long term member of ASF.

There is a difference between differing opinions, friendly and unfriendly banter AND Trolling.

gg

Don’t know what you’re talking about, I have never trolled you, and I haven’t been posting much lately.

Show me your concern so I can improve.

 

[JohnDe]

For those that can, enjoy your Easter break and remember the reasons.

Stay safe.

 

[Smurf1976]

Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.

Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.

Like most things it comes down to the issue that the initial change results in further change which renders the initial assumptions incorrect.

Simple example.

10 countries all produce commodity x and are independent.

Allowing trade between those 10 countries strengthens resilience since a major problem in any one of them can be at least partially offset by using surplus capacity in the others. Or via pricing they can all ration use a bit and share the pain.

Trouble is that you come back a few years later and find that of those 10 countries, only two of them still produce x at all since the other 8 couldn't compete economically. What you now have is total production extremely vulnerable to a single incident combined with the added political risk that those two now have a position of power they didn't have previously.

Globalisation isn't a new thing, it has come and gone previously and we're simply seeing a repeat of that cycle. If history's any guide then the turning point involves a major war - 1914 and WW1 marked the end of globalisation last time. Hence it's no surprise that if you look at industry in Australia, there's some pretty big stuff that happened immediately after that. Now we're back to a point of having not much industry, failing globalisation and the prospect of major war. The wheel goes around.

 

[3 hound]

Like most things it comes down to the issue that the initial change results in further change which renders the initial assumptions incorrect.

Simple example.

10 countries all produce commodity x and are independent.

Allowing trade between those 10 countries strengthens resilience since a major problem in any one of them can be at least partially offset by using surplus capacity in the others. Or via pricing they can all ration use a bit and share the pain.

Trouble is that you come back a few years later and find that of those 10 countries, only two of them still produce x at all since the other 8 couldn't compete economically. What you now have is total production extremely vulnerable to a single incident combined with the added political risk that those two now have a position of power they didn't have previously.

Globalisation isn't a new thing, it has come and gone previously and we're simply seeing a repeat of that cycle. If history's any guide then the turning point involves a major war - 1914 and WW1 marked the end of globalisation last time. Hence it's no surprise that if you look at industry in Australia, there's some pretty big stuff that happened immediately after that. Now we're back to a point of having not much industry, failing globalisation and the prospect of major war. The wheel goes around.

That's not very optimistic.

 

[basilio]

Like most things it comes down to the issue that the initial change results in further change which renders the initial assumptions incorrect.

Simple example.

10 countries all produce commodity x and are independent.

Allowing trade between those 10 countries strengthens resilience since a major problem in any one of them can be at least partially offset by using surplus capacity in the others. Or via pricing they can all ration use a bit and share the pain.

Trouble is that you come back a few years later and find that of those 10 countries, only two of them still produce x at all since the other 8 couldn't compete economically. What you now have is total production extremely vulnerable to a single incident combined with the added political risk that those two now have a position of power they didn't have previously.

Globalisation isn't a new thing, it has come and gone previously and we're simply seeing a repeat of that cycle. If history's any guide then the turning point involves a major war - 1914 and WW1 marked the end of globalization last time. Hence it's no surprise that if you look at industry in Australia, there's some pretty big stuff that happened immediately after that. Now we're back to a point of having not much industry, failing globalisation and the prospect of major war. The wheel goes around.

This is a very significant post. Smurf is spot on with regard to the earlier expansion of international trade and globalisation. This occurred world wide in the late 19th Century. There were also a number of previous trading empires.
Check out the short short of globilization.

A brief history of globalization

Globalization 4.0 is the theme of Davos 2019 - but what were the three earlier waves of global trade?

www.weforum.org

 

[basilio]

I actually don’t even think globalisation is the main problem, if anything it was the move to “just in time manufacturing” that caused the system to not be able to cope with supply chains that slowed.

Indeed.. And from an investment POV the catastrophe in Ukraine will have far reaching impact around the world. The example of Neon shortage is one area. I think the risk of mass social collapse with food shortages is also on the table with far more critical consequences

I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.

 

[3 hound]

I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.

I am sure all our politicians on both side see are right now feverishly working up several contingency plans with all branches of the government, the emergency services, the defence force, key farming groups, transport chiefs and the banking and financial sector.

We are very fortunate that way.

 

[Value Collector]

Indeed.. And from an investment POV the catastrophe in Ukraine will have far reaching impact around the world. The example of Neon shortage is one area. I think the risk of mass social collapse with food shortages is also on the table with far more critical consequences

I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.

The grain issue is not that big of a deal, and can be easily fixed rather quickly if necessary, the simple fix is for people to eat less meat, 40% of the worlds grain gets fed to livestock in factory farms, and only 6% of soy beans are eaten by humans the majority are consumed by chickens and pigs.

If every one just ate a bit less meat, and maybe included a bit of tofu instead, there wouldn’t be a grain shortage.

Of course in reality that won’t happen, the rich nations will continue push the grain into factory farms, and out of the reach of the poorer nations.

 

[basilio]

I am sure all our politicians on both side see are right now feverishly working up several contingency plans with all branches of the government, the emergency services, the defence force, key farming groups, transport chiefs and the banking and financial sector.

We are very fortunate that way.

Indeed... That must be the way we operate surely ? I mean how could everyone seeing such an obvious critical problem not be working together to come up with contingency plans ?

Let me ask the flying pig formation for their take of the situation...

 

[3 hound]

Let me ask the flying pig formation for their take of the situation...

Report back with your findings, just the executive summary, the plans will be far too meticulously detailed to post in full.

I will standby and keep clicking the refresh button while I await your briefing.

 

[Craton]

Found the below on my Russia/China internet travels, also reported here.​

UnionPay refuses to cooperate with Sberbank due to the risk of secondary sanctions – The Moscow Times​

The Chinese payment system UnionPay refused to cooperate with Sberbank, so it will not issue its cards. According to RBC, citing sources, UnionPay fears possible consequences due to cooperation with large Russian banks that have fallen under sanctions. Bank employees were told about the decision of the Chinese payment system at a closed meeting.

UnionPay cards proved to be in demand in Russia after the start of wars in Ukraine when international payment systems, including Visa, Mastercard and JCB, refused to work in Russia. The cards of these systems, issued by Russian banks, stopped working abroad, it became impossible to pay for purchases in foreign online stores with them. UnionPay was the only international system left in the country. It accounted for 1% of cards in circulation in 2020, which is about 2.7 million cards, according to the British company RBR.

Major banks, including Sberbank, VTB, Otkritie and Alfa-Bank, said in early March that they were exploring the possibility of using the system. The announcement came a month before Sberbank came under US blocking sanctions. Promsvyazbank issued UnionPay cards even before falling under the sanctions, but stopped doing so, said the call center of the credit institution. Sovcombank planned to issue Halva cards based on UnionPay, but abandoned these plans due to the fact that the use of any cards of sanctioned banks abroad is futile, a source in the payment market told RBC.


Now UnionPay cards are issued by ten issuing banks. After the imposition of sanctions, the demand for them jumped tenfold: the issue volume increased from 50,000 to 500,000 pieces. In parallel with the popularity, the cost of issuing and maintaining cards has also grown: the annual commission sometimes exceeds 10,000 rubles, and for an urgent issue, some banks charge up to 15,000 rubles.


UnionPay cards, according to the company, work in 180 countries, including the US and the EU. However, Russian owners complain that they are not accepted for payment everywhere. So, according to Fontanka, in Asia and the Middle East, these cards work on a par with MasterCard and Visa, in a number of European countries, users may experience problems, but things are worse with them in the USA and Israel. Moreover, all cards issued by any Russian bank stopped working in Israel.

It is not always possible to pay for purchases in online stores. Banks do not officially confirm the problem, but Kommersant’s sources say that online stores themselves have decided not to serve Russian cardholders amid the invasion of Ukraine, although sanctions do not provide for this. In such situations, stores do not allow acquiring banks to make payments with cards issued in Russia, regardless of the payment system.

 

[JohnDe]

2 of those accounts were made just around 2 weeks within of each other and in the last 4-5 weeks... coincidence? maybe

I’ve been a member since March 2020.

GG makes an accusation, refuses to offer evidence, and then blocks so he can hide from the truth.

Ignorance is bliss, for some.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

meanwhile , in the real world

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city – indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest.
- ISW