War threat in Ukraine

[moXJO]

Mariupol looks lost. The media keeps upbeat about Ukraine chances, but Ukraine soldiers are taking some big losses now.

A Brit was taken as a pow(confirmed) and a yank recently killed (not confirmed).
Noticed Zelensky was calling for conscripts.
And there were another batch of foreign recruits that up and left.
Large group of marines were killed or taken POW. I think roughly 500 were reportedly killed and about 1000 are now prisoners.

There has also been a downturn in western media interest which was being monitored by a Russian site.

Crucial time in which we need to keep supplying arms to pound away at Russia. If Ukraine loses here from western neglect we may very well be fcked in the long run.

 

[3 hound]

Large group of marines were killed or taken POW. I think roughly 500 were reportedly killed and about 1000 are now prisoners.

From what country?

 

[moXJO]

From what country?

They were Ukrainian, one of the azov battalions I think. They were hiding out under one of the factories. Apparently they have been trying to leave the city for weeks but the Russians have circled the city.

They were out of ammo and food. So obviously supply lines were cut. I heard the Russians turned the fire houses on to try and drown any stragglers hiding in the tunnels.

Ukraine is trying to say otherwise. But there is a recorded phone call with the Brit just before they surrendered that they were in the sht.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It was directed at 3hound,

he seems to think that me saying that the USA’s initial Invasion of Afghanistan was more successful than Russia’s Ukrainian Invasion means that I am (in his words) “an inhuman psychopath directly profiting from the war”.

I think I am going to block him for a while, I love debating different ideas, but his level of cynicism is a drag.

That particular poster is what is known I am told as a Troll.

He or she or they is or are blocked by many.

I believe he/she/they enjoys his/her/their behaviour.

gg

 

[Craton]

Nice expose on the Russian president succeeding in doing what he claimed/lied NATO was doing. Reality Check or see video below.

More on Russian expansionism, along Russia's eastern border lie the strategic Kuril Islands, see the video below.

Another matter that doesn't bode well is that Crimea, although internationally recognized as being part of the Ukrainian nation, there's Putin's constitutional change with the Russian ban on ceding any Russian territory. Of course any call to cede land will most likely place any dissenter in the gulag for a few years.

Under Putin’s amendments that passed in a nationwide vote on July 1, 2020 it is now unconstitutional to give any part of Russian territory away to a foreign power.

Reality Check


Kuril Islands

 

[3 hound]

Nice expose on the Russian president succeeding in doing what he claimed/lied NATO was doing. Reality Check or see video below.

More on Russian expansionism, along Russia's eastern border lie the strategic Kuril Islands, see the video below.

Another matter that doesn't bode well is that Crimea, although internationally recognized as being part of the Ukrainian nation, there's Putin's constitutional change with the Russian ban on ceding any Russian territory. Of course any call to cede land will most likely place any dissenter in the gulag for a few years.


Reality Check


Kuril Islands

CNN or reality, which one?

 

[noirua]

Russian warship sinks in the Black Sea after Ukraine claims it was hit by a missile | CNN

One of the Russian Navy's most important warships has sunk in the Black Sea, a massive blow to a military struggling against Ukrainian resistance 50 days into Vladimir Putin's invasion of his neighbor.

edition.cnn.com

One of the Russian Navy's most important warships has sunk in the Black Sea, a massive blow to a military struggling against Ukrainian resistance 50 days into Vladimir Putin's invasion of his neighbor.
Russian state news agency TASS reported Thursday evening that the guided-missile cruiser Moskva had sunk, citing a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense.

 

[noirua]

 

[moXJO]

USA military equipment was designed to take out Russian military equipment. They must be loving that they can destroy Russian vehicles without losing soldiers.
Seems like payback for Vietnam and other wars that Russia "advised" on the ground.

US does need to send more trainers as I think they are training Ukrainians back in the US.

Ultimate goal is to break Russia up into smaller countries similar to what happened to the USSR. US can't afford anymore losses after the Biden administration mishandling of almost everything.

 

[againsthegrain]

USA military equipment was designed to take out Russian military equipment. They must be loving that they can destroy Russian vehicles without losing soldiers.
Seems like payback for Vietnam and other wars that Russia "advised" on the ground.

US does need to send more trainers as I think they are training Ukrainians back in the US.

Ultimate goal is to break Russia up into smaller countries similar to what happened to the USSR. US can't afford anymore losses after the Biden administration mishandling of almost everything.

I am amazed and saddened that russia has such a grip on the Caucasus region, forcing their youth to lose their lives and kill slavs. The Caucasus states are neither Slavs or ethnic Russians, they are forced to fight for Putin. Russians killed so many and destroyed Chechnia so bad 20 years ago yet now because of 1 puppet dictator seeded there by Putin those people are forced to breathe the same destruction on Ukraine that Russia inflicted on Grozny. Those states need to break away, Belarus also needs some sanity with majority of the population being under the thumb of another Russian seeded dictator. It needs to all fall apart asap

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Last picture of the Moskva before it didn't sink according to the Russians.



gg

 

[moXJO]

Last picture of the Moskva before it didn't sink according to the Russians.

View attachment 140460

gg

Apparently it didn't sink and even made it back on its own. Ukrainians baited it with a drone that the warship was chasing. The then hit it in a surprise attack.

A retired US general said the majority of what the Ukrainians media put out is debunked as lies in 24-48 hours. Surprisingly Russia isn't pushing as much bs on military victories.

 

[moXJO]

I am amazed and saddened that russia has such a grip on the Caucasus region, forcing their youth to lose their lives and kill slavs. The Caucasus states are neither Slavs or ethnic Russians, they are forced to fight for Putin. Russians killed so many and destroyed Chechnia so bad 20 years ago yet now because of 1 puppet dictator seeded there by Putin those people are forced to breathe the same destruction on Ukraine that Russia inflicted on Grozny. Those states need to break away, Belarus also needs some sanity with majority of the population being under the thumb of another Russian seeded dictator. It needs to all fall apart asap

They have turned a lot of the Russians into hate mode with the propaganda. Any hope of a peaceful solution bar a big salami slice out of Ukraine is gone imo.

Apparently it didn't sink and even made it back on its own. Ukrainians baited it with a drone that the warship was chasing. The then hit it in a surprise attack.

A retired US general said the majority of what the Ukrainians media put out is debunked as lies in 24-48 hours. Surprisingly Russia isn't pushing as much bs on military victories.

Scratch this its all most likely bs. God I hate the amount of bs out there

 

[Craton]

More on why Russia needs to "feel secure" from Peter Ziehan - a strategist, thinker, futurist, speaker on geopolitics.

The Myth of Justified Russian Retaliation

There has been a persistent argument made by Russia apologists – unwitting or otherwise – that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is the fault of the West. Or NATO. Or some combination, but with the United States ultimately bearing the brunt of responsibility. It isn’t particularly new, either; Russia and a whole constellation of international relations theorists and political scientists and peaceniks and Russia apologists have been making it for decades.

I’m not confused by why it’s happening. It’s absolutely in Russia’s interest to try and make the international community see its actions as reasonable and justified. I’m just confused that anyone believes it.

At the crux of the argument is a belief that the violent party (in this instance, Russia) has to lash out, and that the victim, (here, Ukraine) has somehow been asking for it. If this kind of framing makes your skin crawl, it should: Russia is an expansionist imperial power looking to justify its state violence against its neighbors by making it their fault.

Which brings us to another inconvenient truth: those who decry NATO expansion, or are quick to believe Moscow’s propaganda – that allowing former Soviet states to pursue a the path of free market democracies is a prelude to US military expansion – ignore Russian history.

There is no conflict that Russian Vladimir Putin has participated in that doesn’t have a Soviet or Tsarist analogue. Russia has been in a near constant state of war or military expansionism since the 1500s. This is partly explained by the insecurity of the Russian core’s borders. NATO expansion didn’t provide the reason or excuse for Moscow’s current actions. But it does provide those in the way of Russian tanks the opportunity of collective self-defense.

The Myth of NATO Provocations​

 

[basilio]

Umm, doesn't Basilio have the OP?

I'll leave the merging decision to Joe however, I noted that the title could be construed to mean a far more reaching war than just in Ukraine.

I started this thread in the Business Investment Economics thread to maybe focus on the economic /social impact of the war. For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.

There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I started this thread in the Business Investment Economics thread to maybe focus on the economic /social impact of the war. For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.

There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.

Thanks @basilio

I guess grain and oil will be directly affected by shortages consequent on War in Ukraine.

Next currency markets, Ruble as we've seen vs everything else, it will see saw.

Europe is rooted. It is split economically and militarily and elects nincompoops ( much like Australia elects nincompoops ).

The big uncertainty economically is not Europe, the USA, Ua or Ru but imo China.

Now contrary to many peoples' opinion China and Russia are not good buddies. China looks down on Russia as barbarians and will squeeze them mightily for any exports or imports. The Russians hate the Chinese and have for a millennium as they believe them to be smarter businessmen than they themselves. It is about the only thing Putin gets correctly.

So we are now left economically with two big trading powers China and the USA. Next in line would come the Saudi's and the rest of the hoods in that region, Russia and then India, then yer UKs, Brasilias, Australia etc. a bit further down.

All are making the right moves economically except Russia which is being screwed mightily.

Covid or some other plague awaits in the wings.

Africa and fringe Asian countries will starve.

And Gold as ever is mightier than the sword.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I started this thread in the Business Investment Economics thread to maybe focus on the economic /social impact of the war.

Well, Mr B, I hope you aren't exhibiting any petulance, but the nature of events in Ukraine, and how discussion drifts, took the subject off hypotheticals and into realities.

But it is a watershed set of circumstances we are experiencing. Reversal of globalisation ... Huge. Realignment of blocs ... still a work in progress. Food security .....an illusion for many. And all the rest of the issues. (Feminist principles? Not worth much if the rapist is at the door).

 

[basilio]

The war continues and moves into more and more savage fighting.
The latest and possibly most troubling situation is the "last stand" fight in Mariupol.
The last and strongest of the Ukrainian defenders are embedded in a vast steel plant. The Russians will have to destroy the plant piece by piece to "win" this battle and ensure they hold Mariupol.

This steel plant is an integral part of Europes infrastructure. Intact it pumped out 4m tonnes of steel a year, 3.5m tonnes of hot metal and 1.2m tonnes of rolled steel. That is a big slice of European basic infrastructure. WTF will happen if this plant is trashed ? What will it take to repair it ? What happens in the meantime ?

‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol​

Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders

• Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates

Smoke and fire have been seen coming from the Azovstal iron and steelworks, where Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are concentrated. Photograph: Maxar Tech/AFP/Getty Images

Reuters
Fri 15 Apr 2022 12.27 BSTLast modified on Fri 15 Apr 2022 16.03 BST


Explosions rumbled and smoke rose this week from a steelmaking district in besieged Mariupol where dwindling Ukrainian forces are holed up as Russia tries to take full control of its biggest city yet.
The Azovstal iron and steelworks, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants, has become an apocalyptic redoubt for Ukrainian forces who are outgunned, outnumbered and surrounded seven weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the east of the southern port devastated by weeks of shelling, the plant lies in an industrial area that looks out to the Sea of Azov and covers more than 11 sq km (4.25 sq miles), containing myriad buildings, blastfurnaces and rail tracks.

‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol

Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders

www.theguardian.com

 

[moXJO]

The war continues and moves into more and more savage fighting.
The latest and possibly most troubling situation is the "last stand" fight in Mariupol.
The last and strongest of the Ukrainian defenders are embedded in a vast steel plant. The Russians will have to destroy the plant piece by piece to "win" this battle and ensure they hold Mariupol.

This steel plant is an integral part of Europes infrastructure. Intact it pumped out 4m tonnes of steel a year, 3.5m tonnes of hot metal and 1.2m tonnes of rolled steel. That is a big slice of European basic infrastructure. WTF will happen if this plant is trashed ? What will it take to repair it ? What happens in the meantime ?

‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol​

Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders

• Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates

View attachment 140490
Smoke and fire have been seen coming from the Azovstal iron and steelworks, where Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are concentrated. Photograph: Maxar Tech/AFP/Getty Images

Reuters
Fri 15 Apr 2022 12.27 BSTLast modified on Fri 15 Apr 2022 16.03 BST


Explosions rumbled and smoke rose this week from a steelmaking district in besieged Mariupol where dwindling Ukrainian forces are holed up as Russia tries to take full control of its biggest city yet.
The Azovstal iron and steelworks, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants, has become an apocalyptic redoubt for Ukrainian forces who are outgunned, outnumbered and surrounded seven weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the east of the southern port devastated by weeks of shelling, the plant lies in an industrial area that looks out to the Sea of Azov and covers more than 11 sq km (4.25 sq miles), containing myriad buildings, blastfurnaces and rail tracks.

It's literally the last stand for them. Surrounded on all sides unless they go for a swim.

Map with current alerts

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-april-russian-army-bombed-mariupol-with-longrange-tu22m3

 

[divs4ever]

I started this thread in the Business Investment Economics thread to maybe focus on the economic /social impact of the war. For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.

There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.

sadly i believe you are correct , the consequences will be enormous , whether Russia and China start limiting exports or not

not to mention those oligarchs who are no longer able to invest ( or spend their money ) in the Western economy , it's only a few billion here a few billion there it shouldn't do too much damage to nations already massively in debt

and yes the reduced investment ( say from India and Saudi Arabia ) will certainly be noticed by some

the food instability was already a problem , all this conflict did was dampen hopes of a less nasty outcome

personally i will resist investing in the EU and US ( and UK ) in future , their word ( bonds ) are worthless but the Cyprus saga already proved that .

whether i am a tiny minority or part of a larger trend , time will tell