War threat in Ukraine

[3 hound]

The war continues and moves into more and more savage fighting.
The latest and possibly most troubling situation is the "last stand" fight in Mariupol.
The last and strongest of the Ukrainian defenders are embedded in a vast steel plant. The Russians will have to destroy the plant piece by piece to "win" this battle and ensure they hold Mariupol.

This steel plant is an integral part of Europes infrastructure. Intact it pumped out 4m tonnes of steel a year, 3.5m tonnes of hot metal and 1.2m tonnes of rolled steel. That is a big slice of European basic infrastructure. WTF will happen if this plant is trashed ? What will it take to repair it ? What happens in the meantime ?

‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol​

Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders

• Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates

View attachment 140490
Smoke and fire have been seen coming from the Azovstal iron and steelworks, where Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are concentrated. Photograph: Maxar Tech/AFP/Getty Images

Reuters
Fri 15 Apr 2022 12.27 BSTLast modified on Fri 15 Apr 2022 16.03 BST


Explosions rumbled and smoke rose this week from a steelmaking district in besieged Mariupol where dwindling Ukrainian forces are holed up as Russia tries to take full control of its biggest city yet.
The Azovstal iron and steelworks, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants, has become an apocalyptic redoubt for Ukrainian forces who are outgunned, outnumbered and surrounded seven weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the east of the southern port devastated by weeks of shelling, the plant lies in an industrial area that looks out to the Sea of Azov and covers more than 11 sq km (4.25 sq miles), containing myriad buildings, blastfurnaces and rail tracks.

‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol

Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders

www.theguardian.com

I get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's literally the last stand for them. Surrounded on all sides unless they go for a swim.

Map with current alerts

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-april-russian-army-bombed-mariupol-with-longrange-tu22m3

Thanks @moXJO for the intelligent commentary on Mariupol. I've been following it on Osinttechnical and related channels of information.

Ukraine is in an existential crisis and these UA Fighters are holding their own in an asymmetrical war, using guerrilla tactics.

They understand that there will in all likelihood be a poor outcome for them. This is part and parcel of war.

Only trolls would get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.

gg

 

[basilio]

It does look like a last stand fight. But the cost to the Russian attackers, the huge industrial plant and the Putin government could also be catastrophic.

Traditionally in battles the attackers leave an exit route to encourage the enemy to get out. Fighting determined, desperate soldiers with nothing left to lose is a recipe for a a bloodbath.

Hand to hand combat against a prepared force in the network of buildings would be a nightmare. This would make the likelihood of some massive bombing/chemical attack far more likely. So if one wants an anxiety attack consider how the world would react to such a decision by the Russians.

 

[divs4ever]

I get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.

well this could get very complicated Russia has several options i can see they have SO FAR chosen not to take , China will be watching and thinking , while India is looking around and re-assessing future moves , we will have to keep an eye on Pakistan and also watch Afghanistan ( which could get very complicated all by itself .. say what if China poured money and infrastructure into developing Afghanistan , abandoning areas of South America and Africa ... and possibly Australia )

not obvious yet will be several other nations that are sick of US and EU ( and IMF ) blackmail and bullying , and might start earnestly searching for reliable trading partners ( like the on again/off again Latin American trading bloc ) and don't forget South-East Asia will be reassessing options as well

 

[3 hound]

well this could get very complicated Russia has several options i can see they have SO FAR chosen not to take , China will be watching and thinking , while India is looking around and re-assessing future moves , we will have to keep an eye on Pakistan and also watch Afghanistan ( which could get very complicated all by itself .. say what if China poured money and infrastructure into developing Afghanistan , abandoning areas of South America and Africa ... and possibly Australia )

not obvious yet will be several other nations that are sick of US and EU ( and IMF ) blackmail and bullying , and might start earnestly searching for reliable trading partners ( like the on again/off again Latin American trading bloc ) and don't forget South-East Asia will be reassessing options as well

Despite what the msm pundits say I have always thought there is a risk that the emerging economies will tire of the west perceived dominance and start rallying together in a new trading block not based on the USD.

 

[3 hound]

It does look like a last stand fight. But the cost to the Russian attackers, the huge industrial plant and the Putin government could also be catastrophic.

Traditionally in battles the attackers leave an exit route to encourage the enemy to get out. Fighting determined, desperate soldiers with nothing left to lose is a recipe for a a bloodbath.

Hand to hand combat against a prepared force in the network of buildings would be a nightmare. This would make the likelihood of some massive bombing/chemical attack far more likely. So if one wants an anxiety attack consider how the world would react to such a decision by the Russians.

I am not a soldier but why do you need to fight your enemy trapped inside a building. If you don't want to destroy the building to get them because the building can be used as an future asset surely you can just starve them out. It appears the Russians have a supply route and the Ukraine soldiers are isolated.

Either way it's horrifying to think what could happen.

 

[Craton]

I started this thread in the Business Investment Economics thread to maybe focus on the economic /social impact of the war. For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.

There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.

Cheers @basilio understood, focus on the title thread.
The following is not meant to be a deep dive per se, more of an overview on the far reaching $$$ implications of this armed conflict.

Like all things that apply to the human condition, nothing seems to be what it appears to be, especially when it comes to; the Business of war (from Wikipedia), stock market Investment in wartime (from Investopedia) and war Economics (from Cato Institute).

Business:
Just on grain. ABARES reports a decent grain crop, fourth highest on record.
The cynic in me sees that there will be profiteering even with the NSW lower than average wheat quality with this, no doubt leading to higher and higher prices on the supermarket shelves.

Investment:
Commodities. We know in which direction these go when there is a squeeze on.
Ergo, with Europe so reliant on Russian oil and gas, the fragility of this must force new investment from other suppliers and/or sources.

Stocks: I'm sure that with Ukraine being a major producer of Neon, which in itself is critical in computer chip/semi-conductor manufacturing, has already been discussed.
Reuters 11 Mar 2022

Some 45% to 54% of the world's semiconductor-grade neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, comes from two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from the companies and market research firm Techcet. Global neon consumption for chip production reached about 540 metric tons last year, Techcet estimates.

CBNC 25 Mar 2022

More than half of the world’s neon is produced by a handful of companies in Ukraine, according to Peter Hanbury, a semiconductor analyst at research firm Bain & Co.

Those companies include Mariupol-based Ingas, as well as Cryoin and Iceblick, which are based in Odesa.

You can't tell me the Kremlin wasn't aware of this Neon fact.
Of course there are other prizes for the invader hence the invader's Investment in the invasion.

Economics:
This Cato Institute study, using five year datasets of wars and coups etc from 1955 to 2015, looks at how to quantify war into several areas like; Economic Freedom, War and GDP per Capita, Econometric Analysis and so on.

For various reasons, economists have become interested in investigating the causes and effects of war and other armed conflict (e.g., Coyne and Mathers 2011).


This article uses a consistent measurement of these forms of violence across space and time to conduct a rigorous quantitative analysis of the effect of war on economic growth.

War and GDP per Capita

Conceptually, the total cost of war includes three parts: (1) the opportunity cost of the resources used to prosecute war, (2) the loss of lives and destruction of physical and human capital during the war, and (3) the reduction of GDP per capita as measured during and following the war. The focus of this study is on the third part.

One thing that is in the back of my mind is the nuclear threat. Although I personally don't think it'll come to that, however the threat is there and the threat is real.
I'm speculating that the West's nuke powers are seriously assessing the capability of their systems and possibly looking at testing and/or upgrades. Without further research, I am just speculating.

As the Ukrainian "special military operation" keeps on keeping on, the world has been forced into having a major rethink on what a protracted conflict means to all trading partners, businesses big and small and to the rest of us, on a personal level.

For every day that the Ukrainian conflict continues there is no doubt that, the socioeconomic consequences continue to mount!

 

[3 hound]

As the Ukrainian "special military operation" keeps on keeping on, the world has been forced into having a major rethink on what a protracted conflict means to all trading partners, businesses big and small and to the rest of us, on a personal level.

Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.

Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.

 

[JohnDe]

Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.

Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.

It worked for 40 years

 

[Value Collector]

Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.

Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.

I don’t think any one has ever claimed that globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain shortages.

It does however make the world less vulnerable to them though, for example 200 years ago if a crop failed in your local region it could cause famine and death in your community, these days they just ship in some etc wheat from the other side of the world.

But to say globalisation should make the world immune is silly and unrealistic.

 

[3 hound]

It worked for 40 years

I know people that smoked cigarettes for 40 years then died of lung cancer. I also know people that lived off the hard work, sacrifice and inherited wealth of the forefathers for 40 years or more before the squandered it all.

What's your point?

 

[rederob]

Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.

Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.

It's actually the opposite.
Globalisation is simply the difference between independence and interdependence, and there is now a return to the concept of manufacturing independence so that countries don't suffer supply shocks.
Smart manufacturers overcome this problem by building in supply chain redundancies, and Tesla's battery purchasing arrangement is a prime example.
Russia's attack on Ukraine will certainly impact food security as the 2 nations are responsible for over a quarter of global wheat output. On the industrial front Ukraine is a major contributor to Europe's iron and steel manufacturing capacity.
While iron and steel capacity is not necessarily tied to geography, agriculture is, so there is no quick fix to replacing lost agricultural production.

 

[3 hound]

It's actually the opposite.
Globalisation is simply the difference between independence and interdependence, and there is now a return to the concept of manufacturing independence so that countries don't suffer supply shocks.
Smart manufacturers overcome this problem by building in supply chain redundancies, and Tesla's battery purchasing arrangement is a prime example.
Russia's attack on Ukraine will certainly impact food security as the 2 nations are responsible for over a quarter of global wheat output. On the industrial front Ukraine is a major contributor to Europe's iron and steel manufacturing capacity.
While iron and steel capacity is not necessarily tied to geography, agriculture is, so there is no quick fix to replacing lost agricultural production.

Your confusing globalisation with international trade. International trade has existed for about as long as there has been humans and will continue to exist as globalisation continues to fall apart in less than a generation or close to it.

 

[rederob]

Your confusing globalisation with international trade. International trade has existed for about as long as there has been humans and will continue to exist as globalisation continues to fall apart in less than a generation or close to it.

What do you think globalisation means?
It is you who is confused here.
Given that the very concept of "nations" is historically recent, you have further confused the ancient concept of trade between people with trade between nations.
Furthermore, your idea that globalisation is falling apart is more confusion still as international alliances will foster strengthening of ties rather than weakening.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The West’s ‘arsenal of democracy’ is stretched at crucial moment​

Massive arms supplies to Ukraine are depleting Western armories just as governments fear they may need weapons for their own defence.

Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that the West has delivered 60,000 antitank weapons and 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons to Kyiv. The Pentagon is now laying plans to rush additional artillery, coastal defence drones and other materiel to Ukraine.

Pentagon officials say that Kyiv is blowing through a week’s worth of deliveries of antitank munitions every day. It is also running short of usable aircraft as Russian airstrikes and combat losses take their toll.....

Kyiv will require far more Western support to beat back Russian forces gathering in the east, where relatively open terrain is less favourable to the defence. It will also need more sophisticated weapons, such as tanks and aircraft... Stout Ukrainian resistance has given Kyiv a reasonable chance of winning this war, but the cost of any victory, in equipment no less than lives, will be astounding.

For the same reason, the war in Ukraine is a sobering preview of the problems the US itself would face in a conflict against Russia or China. If forced to go to war in Eastern Europe or the Western Pacific, Washington would spend down its stockpiles of missiles, precision-guided munitions and other critical capabilities in days or weeks. It would probably suffer severe losses of tanks, planes, ships and other assets that are sophisticated, costly and hard to replace.....

Washington Post​

 

[moXJO]

I am not a soldier but why do you need to fight your enemy trapped inside a building. If you don't want to destroy the building to get them because the building can be used as an future asset surely you can just starve them out. It appears the Russians have a supply route and the Ukraine soldiers are isolated.

Either way it's horrifying to think what could happen.

Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.

No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines.

But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.

 

[3 hound]

Don

What do you think globalisation means?
It is you who is confused here.
Given that the very concept of "nations" is historically recent, you have further confused the ancient concept of trade between people with trade between nations.
Furthermore, your idea that globalisation is falling apart is more confusion still as international alliances will foster strengthening of ties rather than weakening.

I meant international as different people's in different places as has been done since ancient times. Yes nations is not the appropriate word but it would have done most people in an honest conversation that aren't nitpicking at words.

Don't project your confusion on to me. It sounds like you think the word globalisation is interchangeable with this practice.

 

[3 hound]

Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.

No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines.

But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.

A horror story unfolding.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Gaps in the narrative .... nobody's fault but mine, I guess, for putting the weevil (a cereal pest) on ignore.

Some of the replies make sense now, but that's the way its gotta be.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.

No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines.

But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.

I remember reading testimony from a civilian who managed to to flee Mariupol a week ago, along the lines of going through 15 Russki checkpoints on the flight to safety. So it would likely be an impossibility to break through lines to provide relief.

from ISW:

The Russians and their proxies appear to be preparing to declare victory in the Battle of Mariupol, as Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin opened a United Russia party office in the city

On the matter of stretched forces, I see that Ukrainian partisans have begun to operate behind Russian lines, especially in the open lands between Mariupol and Kherson.