US Dollar Index - DX

[CanOz]

Well the DX is finally moving again. Can we look for a move back to support and the start of the wedge.....or whatever?

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[chops_a_must]

Looks like the target lines up with support at about 77 there Can.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

the pattern came good trend line broke, new direction in swing.

some short term supoort levels I see in the very near term.

took a while but we got it..............

 

[sinner]

A longer term look provides some interesting insights...

Can this "rally" bring the USDX back to 2005 highs? The longer term indicators provide some room for that movement, but things look grim for anything higher than that before they begin to push downwards again.

Unless demand for USD remains so high as to break through these (as yet) untouched longer term indicators and set up new cycles as it has with the shorter term (witness MACD in above charts) this could be the beginning of the end for this "rally".

This index is rapidly approaching the tight 2005 support/resistance window...

 

[CanOz]

I hate to be the perma bear here too but i think we'll see more weakness in the S&P and then snap higher on the DX, after all this is still in a medium term uptrend.

Sorry i haven't posted for a while, my Dubai proxy quit (no credit maybe?) and i couldn't get online without it until tonight. Oh i did i mention i had my laptop and passport stolen too, not a great couple of weeks!

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[BentRod]

Sorry i haven't posted for a while, my Dubai proxy quit (no credit maybe?) and i couldn't get online without it until tonight. Oh i did i mention i had my laptop and passport stolen too, not a great couple of weeks!

Wondered where you were Can, sorry to hear about the passport- what a hassle!

 

[IFocus]

I hate to be the perma bear here too but i think we'll see more weakness in the S&P and then snap higher on the DX, after all this is still in a medium term uptrend.

Sorry i haven't posted for a while, my Dubai proxy quit (no credit maybe?) and i couldn't get online without it until tonight. Oh i did i mention i had my laptop and passport stolen too, not a great couple of weeks!

Cheers,


CanOz

Can must be a real pain in the A*se, hope all is now well

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Sorry to hear that can.......

Boys I have made a technical case for why i think the USD is starting long term bull market. It's based on technicals only and only supported by what i can see on the chart.

I have not posted it here cuz I am not interested in what will come into the thread from all the report cut and pastes.

If you're interested to have a look and a read, the link is below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=136330

cheers

 

[Indie]

Sorry to hear that can.......

Boys I have made a technical case for why i think the USD is starting long term bull market. It's based on technicals only and only supported by what i can see on the chart.

I have not posted it here cuz I am not interested in what will come into the thread from all the report cut and pastes.

If you're interested to have a look and a read, the link is below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=136330

cheers

I'm not chartist but I think the fundaments support your argument. Saving rates in the US are rising dramatically so the reliance on foreign capital going forward will be less and less. It's also important to remember most other central banks will try to keep their currency down against the dollar through competitive devaluation and the fact that many of them have to print even more than the FED because their economies are in even worse shape than the US. Long term bull is on the cards until we hit deflationary bottom.

 

[explod]

Well I think the last two posts are both wrong. On the technical it has broken down and looks like heading south much faster than it went north over the last few months. And the fundamental for a strong US dollar are growing weaker by every bit of news coming out from Wall Street. The fed are tipped to drop the cash rate by a further 50 basis points in the next day or so, which always weakens the US dollar.

I have no gut feel, it is just my take on the facts as I see them. Been often wrong though.

 

[Indie]

Well I think the last two posts are both wrong. On the technical it has broken down and looks like heading south much faster than it went north over the last few months. And the fundamental for a strong US dollar are growing weaker by every bit of news coming out from Wall Street. The fed are tipped to drop the cash rate by a further 50 basis points in the next day or so, which always weakens the US dollar.

I have no gut feel, it is just my take on the facts as I see them. Been often wrong though.

Naturally I don't have a crystal ball either, but I'm fairly certain EURO at 1.38 has a 75bpt cut by the FED priced into it - this is where I start shorting it. What I mean is I think this move down had more to do with interest rate differentials than bad news coming out of the US especially since the BOE hinted they may not cut again, which is just wishful thinking. I'm banking on more bad news because so far that has been bullish for USD and YEN, so I'm long these two against AUD and EURO.

 

[bankit]

I have to agree Explod. The chart below is showing all the signs of a high being in place.

Bankit

 

[>Apocalypto<]

food for thought boys.

Would like to see support and a bounce from 75- 85 for good signs a USD bull is beginning.

USD Monthly chart

 

[BentRod]

USDX getting creamed.

 

[Indie]

Ouch!

 

[Naked shorts]

USDX getting creamed.

Must be the IR cuts. I wonder if this is the start of the USD tank

 

[explod]

Must be the IR cuts. I wonder if this is the start of the USD tank

It started to tank days ago and I tried to warn you all yesterday.

Just a little fundamental and some technical can take you a long way. Look out above on the gold threads.

 

[BentRod]

Must be the IR cuts. I wonder if this is the start of the USD tank

Seems possible...can't ignore that impulsive price action the last few days.

 

[Indie]

If the downtrend continues when the market starts to tank again then I'll believe it. But I did lose a of ground last night in the markets.

 

[bankit]

Hi All,

Well the USD went through my first support at around 82 ¢ like butter.

Looks as though a major top is now in place and this is a serious move down as evidenced in the strong move up in gold last night.

Bankit