Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

yep , and that will be educational to watch ( even if they use a large amount of automation )
A few months back, I was listening to a y-tuber that interviewed an automotive parts producer in Mexico, and they said it was a huge job just loading the machinery up on trucks and moving it to the states, and much of it wouldn't be viable as it's outdated or getting old.
Then the other problem they'll have is transferring experienced labour, trying to get work visas and so on.
 
A few months back, I was listening to a y-tuber that interviewed an automotive parts producer in Mexico, and they said it was a huge job just loading the machinery up on trucks and moving it to the states, and much of it wouldn't be viable as it's outdated or getting old.
Then the other problem they'll have is transferring experienced labour, trying to get work visas and so on.
and the regulations , unless Trump slashes a lot of them

Trump's plan is better than the previous one BUT it will not be easy or painless

it MIGHT finally kill the US car industry ( half of it has been on life-support for decades )
 
I see more discussion on tariffs killing demand as consumers are stretched so rather than inflationary more likely deflationary tbh I think thats a more likely outcome.
well locally produced goods ( that would normally be imported ) would cost more , arguably more locals should have jobs ( so more wages to spend ) and in theory the velocity of money should increase

however will taxes and charges increase to soak up those extra wages ( things like insurance premiums )

prices should edge higher but what about discretionary spending , that MIGHT shrink
 
The US auto industry is spread over Canada, Mexico and the US. There are no 100% American made cars, Trump wants to change that in 1 month. Assuming all three counties throw 25% tariffs at each other, the price of new cars is going up by thousands of dollars in North America and it’s going to give the auto industry over there a migraine.
 
The US auto industry is spread over Canada, Mexico and the US. There are no 100% American made cars, Trump wants to change that in 1 month. Assuming all three counties throw 25% tariffs at each other, the price of new cars is going up by thousands of dollars in North America and it’s going to give the auto industry over there a migraine.
Not for long Danny. They will go bankrupt in 3 months. (That's what they told Trump )

 
Alan Kohler offers an analysis of where Trumps economic policies are taking the US.
Not happy.

To make America great, Donald Trump is undoing its greatness as global stock markets fall

By Alan Kohler
9h ago9 hours ago

Trump is overturning the 80-year world order in which America has actually been great. (Reuters: Leah Millis)

Link copied

It took a month of Donald Trump's chilling revolution for the stock market to start sneezing.

The main New York share index — the S&P 500 — began falling on February 19, 29 days after Trump's inauguration.
It has now dropped a bit more than 6 per cent while the more volatile Nasdaq is near a technical correction of minus 10 per cent.
That investors are rattled by the uncertainty over tariffs and looming trade wars is hardly surprising. But a lot of economists are now predicting an economic slowdown — if not recession — in the United States, and US shares are priced for endless growth, so they're vulnerable.

But it was Trump's reaction to the stock market slump that was really telling.
When asked if it was his tariffs that caused the market to fall, the president said it was "globalists".

"Well, a lot of them are globalist countries and companies that won't be doing as well, because we're taking back things that have been taken from us many years ago. I think it's globalists that see how rich our country's going to be, and they don't like it," he said, using the word many times in an hour-long press conference in the Oval Office.

It's unclear whether the globalists are the investors or the companies, or whether he was using the word in the way that the American Jewish Committee has described it, that is as "a coded word for Jews who are seen as international elites conspiring to weaken or dismantle "Western" society, using their international connections and control over big corporations".

In any case, what's most important for Australia — and the entire Western world — is that America has fallen to anti-globalists, and they are carrying out a deep regime change in the style of an autocratic takeover.

 
Alan Kohler offers an analysis of where Trumps economic policies are taking the US.
Not happy.

To make America great, Donald Trump is undoing its greatness as global stock markets fall

By Alan Kohler
9h ago9 hours ago

Trump is overturning the 80-year world order in which America has actually been great. (Reuters: Leah Millis)

Link copied

It took a month of Donald Trump's chilling revolution for the stock market to start sneezing.

The main New York share index — the S&P 500 — began falling on February 19, 29 days after Trump's inauguration.
It has now dropped a bit more than 6 per cent while the more volatile Nasdaq is near a technical correction of minus 10 per cent.
That investors are rattled by the uncertainty over tariffs and looming trade wars is hardly surprising. But a lot of economists are now predicting an economic slowdown — if not recession — in the United States, and US shares are priced for endless growth, so they're vulnerable.

But it was Trump's reaction to the stock market slump that was really telling.
When asked if it was his tariffs that caused the market to fall, the president said it was "globalists".

"Well, a lot of them are globalist countries and companies that won't be doing as well, because we're taking back things that have been taken from us many years ago. I think it's globalists that see how rich our country's going to be, and they don't like it," he said, using the word many times in an hour-long press conference in the Oval Office.

It's unclear whether the globalists are the investors or the companies, or whether he was using the word in the way that the American Jewish Committee has described it, that is as "a coded word for Jews who are seen as international elites conspiring to weaken or dismantle "Western" society, using their international connections and control over big corporations".

In any case, what's most important for Australia — and the entire Western world — is that America has fallen to anti-globalists, and they are carrying out a deep regime change in the style of an autocratic takeover.

after seeing the glorious achievements of the Globalists in the EU and Japan ( not to mention the US before the people desperately turned to Trump , even some lifelong Democrats )

i will wait and see if Trump can make GOOD changes or he follows the Globalist path through a different door , for example he is still pro-cryptocurrency which could easily be the precursor to a CBDC ( and all it's dangers ) , and everyone is data-harvested through X and Truth-Social and block-chain instead of Face-Book , Tik-Tok and Google
 
A few months back, I was listening to a y-tuber that interviewed an automotive parts producer in Mexico, and they said it was a huge job just loading the machinery up on trucks and moving it to the states, and much of it wouldn't be viable as it's outdated or getting old.
Then the other problem they'll have is transferring experienced labour, trying to get work visas and so on.
The solution to this is rail. Outside new york americans have a massive aversion to rail. Massive.

I'm sure a few images of some of the truly colossal mine trains that aus runs from the interior at kalgoorlie or wherever out to the coast would change their minds. They just need something to create a bit of a cultural shift.

Americans love big things ("everything's bigger in texas") so I'd probably make the sales pitch that way.

You know, some variation of "look at the fcukin' size of that thing".

3453763567356753373567.jpg
 
Trumpeter have been blowing his trumpet throughout his Life Performance with a RED TIE telling us...If he reached that Lincoln's seat, he can create The Red Sea...Part it n walk across..He proclaims......I am The Greatest... first part of the story... create The Red Sea n Name the sea.

What The Almighty can do, he can do too...Part the sea n walk across???
 
So, I take it that the consensus is that Mr. Trump has, how should I put it, "over reached".

To be contrarian, he has been accused of this many times before and has come out of it smelling sweet as. I don't see a crash just yet. I may prise open my portefeuille d'argent.

gg
 
Trumpeter have been blowing his trumpet throughout his Life Performance with a RED TIE telling us...If he reached that Lincoln's seat, he can create The Red Sea...Part it n walk across..He proclaims......I am The Greatest... first part of the story... create The Red Sea n Name the sea.

What The Almighty can do, he can do too...Part the sea n walk across???
All part of the big secret plan from GOP, make stuff up as they go along and hope for the best.

So, I take it that the consensus is that Mr. Trump has, how should I put it, "over reached".

To be contrarian, he has been accused of this many times before and has come out of it smelling sweet as. I don't see a crash just yet. I may prise open my portefeuille d'argent.

gg

I heard Tesla is going cheap, lol!
 
As a broad observation the ASX is extremely intolerant of anything even slightly negative at the moment.

BKW is today's example, down about 10% at the open, but there's been a constant stream of similar examples over the past few weeks and that's among ASX300 and even large cap stocks, I'm not talking about junior companies here.

Likewise any attempt at a rally is immediately sold.

Put those two together and the mood seems not as negative as it was during the 2020 crash, but certainly very negative. Of 50 stocks I'm actively following, 46 are down today thus far. Of the other 4 well one of them is the USD ETF so not an actual stock. :2twocents
 
To be fair here, no shortage of people (me included) considered the runup before all of this to be waaay overdone.

3245643256324572457.jpg

I know an ungodly amount of money printing and everything else has gone on post-covid but if we consider the runup before this to be like the same bounce above trend throughout all of 2021 then as we can see a return to trend (assuming it's a slower melt and doesn't happen over the next couple of days) should be at about the 515 mark.

Obviously a dip back below trend like throughout 2022 will dump way below it to the 450 mark but the point is that in a purely graphical/trend sense all we're seeing at the moment is a trend or mean reversion.

Trump's sledgehammer might have just been the catalyst markets needed to have a bit of reflection on the last year and go "well you know I think we might have gotten a bit ahead of ourselves here".

So yeah. 515 for a reprice to trend, obviously a corresponding downwards fluctuation to the run above trend we've seen would get us down more to the 450 mark.

Hitting 515 seems relatively likely, 450 much harder to say. A lot of uncertainty going forward.

A series of buy orders at 515, 500, 485, 470 etc wouldn't be foolish.
 
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