Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[sptrawler]

i would disagree with that percentage BUT it is in the interests of Russia , India , China , Iran and Cuba to keep as much of their international transactions discreet/under-reported as possible

Whatever the percentage, the fact remains if the debt continues its current trajectory, countries will loose confidence trading in $US and that's what supports the fiat system confidence in the reserve currency.
If the US doesn't get its house in order, it is toast IMO.
There are certainly bigger issues in play than Trumps personality, but as usual that is the most important thing in todays world.

 

[Smurf1976]

Anyway talk is cheap and Trump now has to deliver the goods between now and 2028 or be exposed as a fraud. I can't stand the way he waffles on about stuff and he always blames somebody else for problems.

Intending to be politically neutral as such, how I'm seeing it is as a long term paradigm shift.

The recent world order I'll argue doesn't date back to the aftermath of WW2 as commonly stated but it dates back to a series of events which took place circa 1970 +/- 5 years for each of them. Notably the severing of remaining linkage of the US Dollar to gold, the OPEC Oil Embargo, the Lima Declaration, and a more general shift in Western society.

Regarding that latter point of the broad shift, it's a practical reality that most Western industrial infrastructure was built or at least under construction no later than 1980, and the bulk of it is pre-1975. That can be seen with everything from dams to steelworks, bridges to power stations. All that big, heavy industrial stuff and core infrastructure the vast majority of it's old.

In contrast it's the opposite with entertainment infrastructure. Every modern, legal casino in Australia was opened in 1973 or later, and most are 1980's or 90's. Same applies to the major indoor arenas, in most states generically referred to as "the entertainment centre", they're mostly from the 1980's and the rest are more recent. Same applies to a long list of resorts, stadiums, tourism infrastructure, airports and so on. Very few existed in anything resembling their present scale, if at all, more than ~50 years ago.

The other big shift around that time was in terms of the role of women in society, societal attitudes towards a range of social issues and the rise of concerns about the natural environment and human health. Those are well enough known to require no further explanation.

Key point is all that happened over a relatively short period centred around 1970 which also coincided with that economic shift and key events.

My thinking is we're seeing another one of those right now. A shift that will define the next generation and probably two generations. A shift that, as with the last one, most won't really understand until years after the fact.

If I'm right then we'll see some initial indications rapidly, including what will turn out with hindsight to be highly symbolic occurrences, but it'll take decades for the whole thing to play out. By the time it's done, very few will remember hearing of anyone with the name Trump, and most won't be sure who even started it anyway just as it's very hard to pinpoint who started the last shift.

Just my crystal ball gazing but it's something I've been thinking about a lot, this isn't a random comment. I do think we're seeing a generational change here, a big one that'll far outlast Trump himself.

 

[divs4ever]

Whatever the percentage, the fact remains if the debt continues its current trajectory, countries will loose confidence trading in $US and that's what supports the fiat system confidence in the reserve currency.
If the US doesn't get its house in order, it is toast IMO.

well it survived closing the gold window in the '70's and then pulled a rabbit out of the hat with the Petro-dollar deal

let's see what they try this time ( remember Trump has faced bankruptcy at least once , he has some experience in finding his way through defaults )

 

[sptrawler]

well it survived closing the gold window in the '70's and then pulled a rabbit out of the hat with the Petro-dollar deal

let's see what they try this time ( remember Trump has faced bankruptcy at least once , he has some experience in finding his way through defaults )

There wasn't a China manufacturing power house in the 1970's, the U.S was the manufacturing power house back then.

 

[DannyB0000]

There wasn't a China manufacturing power house in the 1970's, the U.S was the manufacturing power house back then.

I can't speak for America because I've always lived in this country, when my parents immigrated here in 1959, there were heaps of manufacturing jobs back then. My parents were told they could move in here for free. My father worked for GMH for 30 years and was employed straight away and my mother worked in the textile industry making jumpers. Those manufacturing jobs are now gone forever and they are never coming to Australia, I don't care what politicians say. It's lot cheaper to make things in China now and employers know that.

Both of my were from Rome, Italy.

 

[divs4ever]

There wasn't a China manufacturing power house in the 1970's, the U.S was the manufacturing power house back then.

well China ( in some areas ) considers itself the dominant world power/economy already .

are they completely wrong

however i couldn't get satisfactory exposure to the 'China growth story ' when starting the investing adventure so have chased exposure in India and Indonesia , NOT counting on the US 'becoming great again '

 

[divs4ever]

I can't speak for America because I've always lived in this country, when my parents immigrated here in 1959, there were heaps of manufacturing jobs back then. My parents were told they could move in here for free. My father worked for GMH for 30 years and was employed straight away and my mother worked in the textile industry making jumpers. Those manufacturing jobs are now gone forever and they are never coming to Australia, I don't care what politicians say. It's lot cheaper to make things in China now and employers know that.

Both of my were from Rome, Italy.

yes up to the 1970's , very true , and many of those smaller businesses were great to work for

now not all of those businesses ( i worked for ) are gone but have greatly changed in local productivity content .

and who did that .. local politicians ( not Chinese ) on some jobs ( when i was still working 8 years back ) i had to sit through a 30 to 60 minute site induction course , provide a workplace safety certificate ( at a $$$ cost to me ), SOMETIMES go through a full 'health and safety lecture ' and in that job what was i doing ?
A. climbing up a ladder to clean a Display Monitor at a shopping center

AND in ALL those jobs in over 20 centres NOT ONE lecture told me where the first aid kit was located ( probably locked up in the office ) or the communications interface to quickly contact security if i needed to .. after all shoppers and employees were still in the centre

and a manufacturing or warehouse site it was even worse

China didn't steal our jobs AUSTRALIAN POLITICIANS gave them those jobs ( almost compelling businesses to out-source )

 

[sptrawler]

I can't speak for America because I've always lived in this country, when my parents immigrated here in 1959, there were heaps of manufacturing jobs back then. My parents were told they could move in here for free. My father worked for GMH for 30 years and was employed straight away and my mother worked in the textile industry making jumpers. Those manufacturing jobs are now gone forever and they are never coming to Australia, I don't care what politicians say. It's lot cheaper to make things in China now and employers know that.

Both of my were from Rome, Italy.

Yes GM Holden was American as was Ford and Chrysler Valiant, they were made here, but part of the U.S global manufacturing giant.

We did have some manufacturing here Meters, Albany wool mills, Hills etc, but the U.S was the giant of the global scene.

Now within 40 years, China has risen from a very small base in 1970, to challenging the U.S as the largest manufacturing nation.
That's what I was alluding to, not that the U.S was the only manufacturing country, just its place on the global scene.

My appologies if I didn't word it well, no offence meant.

 

[over9k]

While you are at it, maybe explain how the U.S was going to fund the lifestyle they had, when the per capita debt is unsustainable.

This is the really big one that I get a very strong impression the authorities/politicians are very deliberately keeping very quiet.

Depending on the country obviously I just don't see a way to balance the budget without putting tariffs in place. In the case of the americans they can reduce their military spending to help pay the debt down but europe is going to have to actually increase theirs to compensate.

The fiscal position europe finds itself in is vastly worse than america's and the american one is hardly what I would call good.

I truly do not see a way for europe to do it without devaluing the euro (printing euro's to pay it off) and that's going to come with a whoooole series of secondary/knock-on effects.

 

[over9k]

So the point in all of this is that we're going to enter a new era of inflation because we're going to enter a new era of tariffs and money printing to pay debt off.

Both of these things are inflationary but remember that inflation destroys the value of debt as much as it destroys the value of everything else dollar/euro/pound/etc denominated too.

So yeah. They're going to inflate their way out of the debt. There's just no other option. The only question is whether it'll be direct (money printing) or indirect (tariffs etc) inflation.

Inheritance tax has been shown to be political suicide.

 

[sptrawler]

Inheritance tax has been shown to be political suicide.

Yes it is, but how else are they going to deal with the inter generational wealth transfer, low productivity is already a problem, when kids inherit mum and dads $3m dollar house, work will be a dirty word.Lol

 

[divs4ever]

Unlike many on here, I can't answer any of those questions, as he has only been in office for 6 weeks and non of the above have actually come to fruition.
So you read the tea leaves and tell me.
While you are at it, maybe explain how the U.S was going to fund the lifestyle they had, when the per capita debt is unsustainable.

in my opinion the best Trump can do in 4 years , is slow the decline in lifestyle ( for the majority of US citizens ) , can the next administration actually stop the decline , the Americans can only hope

unless the entire US go Amish i don't see how they can rein in the debt INCREASE ( as the interest will still compound savagely , ESPECIALLY if the ratings agencies downgrade US credit)

now the big question is how do they reduce that national debt burden ( and we haven't even got to 'unfunded liabilities ' ) , inflation at any rational level won't do enough ( in 4 years )

 

[sptrawler]

Yes @divs4ever it is a hell of a mess, but unless a negotiated outcome between the U.S, China and Russia is sorted out, I think the slide will accelerate China has become too industrialised for the West to compete.

Also with a political system they have, their flexibility and control over regulation, input costs and proccess costs, give them a huge advantage over the West as EV manufacturing is showing.

It takes the West years to change model runs etc, China changes their EV product in an extremely short time frame.
The only real advantage the West has, is we are China's consumers, the U.S is a huge market for Chinese product so China still needs the US consumer.

The U.S has to capitalise on that Chinese dependence, while it is there, otherwise the Asian countries will continue to grow and the West will continue to be less and less competitive.

The Thai baht was ovef 30 baht to the Aus $, now it around 20 to the dollar and that will continue as the climb up the industrialisation ladder and we slide down it.
Interesting times IMO

 

[TimeISmoney]

Yes @divs4ever it is a hell of a mess, but unless a negotiated outcome between the U.S, China and Russia is sorted out, I think the slide will accelerate China has become too industrialised for the West to compete.

Also with a political system they have, their flexibility and control over regulation, input costs and proccess costs, give them a huge advantage over the West as EV manufacturing is showing.

It takes the West years to change model runs etc, China changes their EV product in an extremely short time frame.
The only real advantage the West has, is we are China's consumers, the U.S is a huge market for Chinese product so China still needs the US consumer.

The U.S has to capitalise on that Chinese dependence, while it is there, otherwise the Asian countries will continue to grow and the West will continue to be less and less competitive.

The Thai baht was ovef 30 baht to the Aus $, now it around 20 to the dollar and that will continue as the climb up the industrialisation ladder and we slide down it.
Interesting times IMO

It's in China's best interest to make sure the western world gets along, especially the EU as we know the US wants to de-globalise and lock everyone else out, and they wouldn't want India to be a new rising power or Russia to team up with the US against them.

China will be watching everything closely with interest, it wouldn't surprise if they join with other nations like the EU against Trump.

 

[over9k]

and at best they will end up with civil war in Europe ,

they can't afford US weapons and they don't have much industry ( or energy ) left to make their own , and the old stuff is rusting or burning in Ukraine ( or black-marketed to Africa and the Middle-East )

Divs is 10,000% on the money here.

The europeans are losing their collective minds for a reason and it's because without U.S assistance they are fcuked.
The fact of the matter is that the americans are holding almost all of the cards here and trump knows it. The only effect it's going to have on the americans is a relatively small net demand for their munitions as U.S military spending decreases will not be entirely offset by european military spending increases.

It looks like the french and brits have actually been the smartest about it - making their own hardware but ensuring it's all cross-compatible with U.S gear.

French jets can land and launch from U.S carriers and U.S jets can launch/land from french carriers for example:



In the case of britain they've just directly bought U.S hardware like black hawks, F-35's etc.

 

[over9k]

My thinking is we're seeing another one of those right now. A shift that will define the next generation and probably two generations. A shift that, as with the last one, most won't really understand until years after the fact.

Accurate. The economic turning point was covid. Like with the GFC, covid will be used as the new-era marker when everyone in the future are looking back on this.

 

[over9k]

Another random musing:

Western militaries are, right across the globe, all facing massive recruiting crises. Even if our collective governments got their financial/strategic/etc acts in order, without personnel to actually fight the war they're in a bit of a bind.

How they're going to undo what by now is more than 20 years of screwing over an entire generation of millennials and another entire generation of zoomers I don't know. If my instincts are correct here, just going by the rumblings I see on social media, they've got two entire generations that will go to jail before being conscripted so they can't even use that.

Even worse, the reason why those on the political right won't go and fight a war and why those on the political left won't go and fight it are almost entirely mutual exclusives. If you please the right you'll put the left off even more and if you please the left you'll put the right off even more.

With that being said, if you sent lefties to war you'd have a war fought by a bunch of fruitcakes with nothing more than bongs & dildo's so it's not like you'd be losing much that way anyway.

Point is, I know which side I'd want fighting my war if I had to send either one or the other and it's not the left. The problem they have is that the right is so pissed off I think the situation is beyond repair.



I genuinely do not know what they are going to do.

 

[over9k]

China didn't steal our jobs AUSTRALIAN POLITICIANS gave them those jobs ( almost compelling businesses to out-source )

Also accurate.

The west is not dying, it is being killed. Big difference.

 

[over9k]

Yes it is, but how else are they going to deal with the inter generational wealth transfer, low productivity is already a problem, when kids inherit mum and dads $3m dollar house, work will be a dirty word.Lol

To be fair trawler, the overwhelming majority (I'm not counting greens voting soap dodging parasites on this) of us have been studying and working our asses off for our entire adult lives with almost NOTHING to show for it.

The way I and all my friends see it is that our large inheritances are going to be what make up for the wages we haven't been getting. Life just isn't really going to get good for us until our parents kick all their respective buckets or our "banks of mum and dad" give us something now.

 

[sptrawler]

To be fair trawler, the overwhelming majority (I'm not counting greens voting soap dodging parasites on this) of us have been studying and working our asses off for our entire adult lives with almost NOTHING to show for it.

The way I and all my friends see it is that our large inheritances are going to be what make up for the wages we haven't been getting. Life just isn't really going to get good for us until our parents kick all their respective buckets or our "banks of mum and dad" give us something now.

Times have changed, when Dad died I inherited his belt, which was pretty ironic, because I felt it a lot when growing up.
Mum only passed away two years ago and I inherited $12k, so it wasn't el dorado. Lol
Through my life I gave a lot more to my parents, than they ever gave me, but I was happy to help.
They had a harder life than I had.