Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[moXJO]

All my shares are on credit except one as I am still paying off my house.
I am a bit nervous about the next year but don't want to sell this financial year due to capital gains tax.

I am a high conviction stock picker so find it hard to sell as I am generally going quite well but all stocks fall in a crash.

I do think we are going top see a large fall sometime in the next 3 years. But when?
I know Trump has profits foremost in mind which helps the USA market but all the expulsions from the country and tariff rises have got to hurt parts of the economy (mainly middle class). Its a tough call.

my guess was Christmas rally, slight correction. We have had a few things go on in the US (potential terrorist attack, shooting) that might stir up some fear.

Trumps tariffs are a big unknown. As well as China and Russia's reactions to Trump.
Everyone is just assuming that they will back down. But they may call his bluff.

Tech is high on the agenda. I flicked from Tesla to palantir but don't feel that solid in position.

 

[Knobby22]

my guess was Christmas rally, slight correction. We have had a few things go on in the US (potential terrorist attack, shooting) that might stir up some fear.

Trumps tariffs are a big unknown. As well as China and Russia's reactions to Trump.
Everyone is just assuming that they will back down. But they may call his bluff.

Tech is high on the agenda. I flicked from Tesla to palantir but don't feel that solid in position.

Good points.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

here is a a bear


.
BCA’s Berezin, the most bearish strategist in data compiled by Bloomberg, based his market prediction on the expectation of a US recession. Among other things, he said that Trump could spark a trade war that weighs on business investment, and he warned about the potential outbreak of a “bond market riot” against deficit-funded tax cuts.

In Berezin’s scenario, those events could collide with an economy where credit card and auto loan delinquencies are already on the rise. “I’m not a perma-bear; this is really the first time in my career that I’ve been really outspoken bearish,” Berezin told me. “The market needs to hear a more sober bearish voice, because they’re so rare these days.”

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Wall Street predictions for the year ahead are usually defined by expectations for growth, inflation and other dull-but-worthy economic indicators. For 2025, those are all overshadowed by a person — and he is anything but dull.

The return of Donald J. Trump to the White House dominates this year’s crop of investment outlooks published by the world’s major banks, advisers and asset managers. Overall, his anticipated pro-business policies are fueling a sense of optimism, particularly when it comes to Corporate America and US assets. Yet his tough talk on global trade is also creating nervousness, while his general unpredictability has many prognosticators on edge.

To welcome 2025, Bloomberg News has collated over 700 key calls from more than 50 leading financial institutions, presenting them here for easy analysis and comparison. In them, readers will find an unusual degree of consensus across a range of topics.
.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[divs4ever]

Wall Street predictions for the year ahead are usually defined by expectations for growth, inflation and other dull-but-worthy economic indicators. For 2025, those are all overshadowed by a person — and he is anything but dull.

The return of Donald J. Trump to the White House dominates this year’s crop of investment outlooks published by the world’s major banks, advisers and asset managers. Overall, his anticipated pro-business policies are fueling a sense of optimism, particularly when it comes to Corporate America and US assets. Yet his tough talk on global trade is also creating nervousness, while his general unpredictability has many prognosticators on edge.

To welcome 2025, Bloomberg News has collated over 700 key calls from more than 50 leading financial institutions, presenting them here for easy analysis and comparison. In them, readers will find an unusual degree of consensus across a range of topics.
.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

well love him or hate him ( i stay relatively neutral as i would rather focus on Asia, including India )

he will certainly make some changes , as there needed to be , will they be ultimately good , or disastrous changes , only time will tell

'pro-business ' well i see Trump as more pro-commodities that is oil,gas soft commodities like grains and other food products , MIGHT be tougher on financial products though

manufacturing might get a new injection of hope ( not just more data centres ) and core infrastructure MIGHT get a boost as well.

outside of the US various currency wars might erupt , but more nations trading outside the US sphere of influence ( and dollar )

but the US has a huge debt over-hang ( no matter how you measure it ) and Trump does know his way around bankruptcy and the recovery from it .. but is this a debt too big to fix properly at least in the next 10 years ( assuming Vance gets elected in 2028 )

 

[Knobby22]

Wall Street predictions for the year ahead are usually defined by expectations for growth, inflation and other dull-but-worthy economic indicators. For 2025, those are all overshadowed by a person — and he is anything but dull.

The return of Donald J. Trump to the White House dominates this year’s crop of investment outlooks published by the world’s major banks, advisers and asset managers. Overall, his anticipated pro-business policies are fueling a sense of optimism, particularly when it comes to Corporate America and US assets. Yet his tough talk on global trade is also creating nervousness, while his general unpredictability has many prognosticators on edge.

To welcome 2025, Bloomberg News has collated over 700 key calls from more than 50 leading financial institutions, presenting them here for easy analysis and comparison. In them, readers will find an unusual degree of consensus across a range of topics.
.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Quite positive. Looks a bit like groupthink. And honestly would you want to be the investment firm standing out being negative when there would likely be a backlash? .... especially since we don't really know what Trump will actually do.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Quite positive. Looks a bit like groupthink. And honestly would you want to be the investment firm standing out being negative when there would likely be a backlash? .... especially since we don't really know what Trump will actually do.

.... " readers will find an unusual degree of consensus across a range of topics. "

the commentary that lead me to the article included:

Caveat: Remember that these institutions are in the business of selling you something, and whatever they sell is nearly always forecasted to be something you need in 2025

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I’ve decided not to buy a Bentley Butayga Mulliner SUV to replace the Arnage so my risk appetite remains high as does my cash. Thus in spite of some commentary suggesting a crash this year I’m tending towards the higher end of the stock/cash ratio and doing some more buys in the US market.

The Butayga is a nice looking model as is the young lady with the spot on her forehead and the “of course there is a chance, Garpal” look on her face which accompanies the motor on the Bentley site.




gg

 

[divs4ever]

Quite positive. Looks a bit like groupthink. And honestly would you want to be the investment firm standing out being negative when there would likely be a backlash? .... especially since we don't really know what Trump will actually do.

negative or just cautious ( the naysayers )

remember Micheal Bloomberg actually bought his way in to try for the US Presidential candidate a few years back

BUT money rushing into the market .. meaning more fees and commissions

show me the incentive

only Mavericks like Burrey would be resisting the narrative

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

This quite an interesting article from Joe Klein a respected columnist on Trump and his rhetoric. Excuse the appearance it won't copy otherwise.

Joe Klein, a former Time maga-
zine columnist and author of “Pri-
mary Colors” (1996), writing on his
Substack blog, Jan. 8:
On the western hemisphere. He is hag-
gling with Denmark: Greenland
wants independence, at least a ma-
jority of its minuscule (57,000) popu-
lation does and we’re a more plausi-
I’ll not fall for the bait. I watched
Trump’s press conference. I will take
him seriously, but not literally. He’s
negotiating. He’s sending messages.
And I don’t think the messages are
all that terrible. He is haggling for
better rates for American ships in
the Canal (and perhaps a MAGA
project of widening that too-skinny
thing). He’s sending a larger mes-
sage to the Chinese: we’re watching
every move you make, especially in
ble big brother than you. He is
poking Canada, provocatively, for
better trade deals and more defense
spending. He is sending us a mes-
sage, too: I’m Back and More Vehe-
ment Than Ever. All of which con-
veys three things: confidence, the
appearance of strength and a certain
crafty craziness.
Strength is important to Ameri-
cans, according to the polls. Demo-
crats don’t do it well.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Tump is quite busy with his marker pen or sharpie as the Americans call it signing new edicts. i'm not adding nor selling since yesterday as it is quite difficult to work out the effects of his changes.

I just read that he is removing the $7500 subsidies on EV's and also subsidies on batteries. It is difficult to predict how these changes will affect the US markets let alone our own. What other worms are turning in his head?

Precious and rare metals is one sector that I am thinking may be affected here. Let us see what happens. There is no rush and he may very well cark it before I do.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Some companies will have less staff sucking on their teets.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and which are the " pick and shovel " providers for data centres? They'll be busy

 

[divs4ever]

well Trump ( and co. ) DO have to cut Government expenditure , so they have some chance at servicing the current debt

but it MIGHT make a real mess of the GDP numbers ( since they now include Government spending )

does the US slide into an undeniable recession ? ( even though i reckon it has been in recession for years )

is honesty in Government data about to wash over the markets ?

( declare an emergency and use emergency powers ? )

that is something i would consider doing when the hole you are in is that deep

 

[Knobby22]

well Trump ( and co. ) DO have to cut Government expenditure , so they have some chance at servicing the current debt

but it MIGHT make a real mess of the GDP numbers ( since they now include Government spending )

does the US slide into an undeniable recession ? ( even though i reckon it has been in recession for years )

is honesty in Government data about to wash over the markets ?

( declare an emergency and use emergency powers ? )

that is something i would consider doing when the hole you are in is that deep

The debt is going to greatly increase, just like last time he was in.

Trump’s agenda, particularly the extension of his 2017 tax cuts that are otherwise scheduled to expire in December, would add substantial new debt to Americas’s existing borrowings. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has costed an extension of the tax cuts at $US4.6 trillion over a decade.

There’s also Trump’s campaign promises of removing taxes on tips, overtime, social security benefits and increasing the cap on federal tax deductions for state and local taxes.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has said that eliminating the tax on tips alone would cost the government about $US200 billion over a decade. It costed Trump’s overall policies at a net $US7.75 trillion over a decade.

Trump is expected to start his second term as president with a barrage of executive orders on his first day, including declaration of a national emergency at the US-Mexico border, a rescission of the Biden administrations diversity, equity and inclusion policies, withdrawal of limits on drilling offshore and on federal lands and new rules to change the way federal employees are hired and fired.
There are significant costs associated with Trump’s plan to deport millions of illegal immigrants and other elements of his agenda, the most financially significant of which is the extension of tax cuts. Resolving the debt ceiling blockage to new spending will be critical to implementing his plans.

Getting the fiscal conservatives onside may involve big cuts to government spending, which is what Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been charged with doing in their so-called “department of government efficiency” (it’s not a government department but an advisory council).
Musk’s original target of $US2 trillion of cuts to spending has been watered down to “only” $US1 trillion, but even that would, with defence spending regarded as untouchable, involve swingeing cuts to social welfare and Medicaid programs that Trump promised wouldn’t be touched.

The $58 trillion shadow hanging over Trump’s return

Donald Trump’s inauguration and expectations of the tumult he will release on day one of his administration have deflected attention from the emergence of a familiar threat to US stability.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Dona Ferentes]

@finicky just post this in Uranium Resurgence thread:

@Sean K just posted this on the PDN sub-forum from Market Matters:

• President Trump announced ‘Stargate’, a project backed by the likes of OpenAI and Oracle who will invest ~$US500bn in AI infrastructure over 5 years – the read through for energy demand lighting a rocket under uranium producers.
• Boss Energy (BOE) +14.2%, Deep Yellow (DYL) +7.9% and Paladin Energy (PDN) +10.1% all higher

 

[IFocus]

And this, what could possibly go wrong?

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday revoked a 2023 executive order signed by Joe Biden that sought to reduce the risks that artificial intelligence poses to consumers, workers and national security.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/trump-revokes-biden-executive-order-addressing-ai-risks-2025-01-21/

 

[Sean K]

Uh oh. This could mean free cash to rare earths and battery metals explorers/developers might be pulled from the funding option fridge.

 

[Smurf1976]

President Trump announced ‘Stargate’, a project backed by the likes of OpenAI and Oracle who will invest ~$US500bn in AI infrastructure over 5 years – the read through for energy demand lighting a rocket under uranium producers.

At the commodity level US natural gas is one market with potential for substantial price rises due to a combination of it being the "quick fix" for power generation plus plans to increase US LNG liquefaction capacity.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

from afr

"the tilt towards greenwashing and the rise and rise of benchmarks and performance scores that are often not as quantitative as they appear, is now being matched by a sharp and sudden pullback in the US, where a score of big companies (including Amazon, Meta Platforms, McDonald’s, Boeing and Walmart) have ditched DEI policies or ESG initiatives (including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Blackrock)."

"The running joke of one fund manager is particularly telling: most big [] companies have a sustainability committee and a people and culture committee, but no one seems to have a profitability committee."