Market Crash 2025

[mullokintyre]

Tariffs haven't really hit yet. April 2nd. Yet they are already wiped out.

I doubt tariffs are going to affect the American consumer one way or the other, they are already fcuked.
The figures aboive would have been exactly the same if Biden had won and there was no tariff war.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

I doubt tariffs are going to affect the American consumer one way or the other, they are already fcuked.
The figures aboive would have been exactly the same if Biden had won and there was no tariff war.
Mick

If prices go up they will be double fcuked. The percentage living paycheck to paycheck is nearing 50%. can't find table, can you?

 

[mullokintyre]

If prices go up they will be double fcuked. The percentage living paycheck to paycheck is nearing 50%. can't find table, can you?

Which table are you referring to?
Maybe this one from The New York FED

mick

 

[Knobby22]

Which table are you referring to?
Maybe this one from The New York FED
View attachment 196115
mick

Found it!

 

[DannyB0000]

Trump is already thinking about watering down some of his tariff plans for April 2, don't fret about it.

Tariffs On again, off again

 

[Knobby22]

Starting to put some orders in.
Super is now 50% capital stable 50% conservative.
I have more $ in there than when the markets started to fall so far this has worked out.

Still think more downside than upside - but don't want to try to pick the bottom so slightly increasing my risk.

 

[basilio]

Found it!
View attachment 196117

Yeah. That doesn't give one confidence about the resilience of people to income losses or sharply increased costs with fixed incomes.
I wonder recent that chart actually is ?
Just checked on the website. Late 23/ early 24.

Tariffs will increase costs for US consumers. It will be a regressive tax that will proportionally hit low income earners most.

 

[divs4ever]

Yeah. That doesn't give one confidence about the resilience of people to income losses or sharply increased costs with fixed incomes.
I wonder recent that chart actually is ?
Just checked on the website. Late 23/ early 24.

Tariffs will increase costs for US consumers. It will be a regressive tax that will proportionally hit low income earners most.

yes that is an interesting angle

in times gone by ( say the '1920's/1930's ) imported implied 'luxury ' goods

in the 2020's imported often means budget-priced products ( and components for locally assembled goods )

that might be a key difference this time

 

[mullokintyre]

Tariffs will increase costs for US consumers. It will be a regressive tax that will proportionally hit low income earners most.

I would probably take issue with that.

When you look at the things that are imported, a reasonable percentage will not affect the lower income earners much, if at all.
the lowest ones spend a good chunk of whatever income they earn on rent, energy, and food.
All of these things are mostly home grown and not subject to tariffs.

Below is a list of the top ten groups of things that are imported into the USA,

it is going to affect the upper end more, the ones that can afford those items in the top ten.
What is more likely to happen is market substitution.

Mick

 

[divs4ever]

if a product it is imported into a nation

there are three ( main ) reasons it is viable

1. it isn't made in that nation

2, it is better than locally made products ( so the buyer will pay more )

3. it is noticeably cheaper than locally made products

i suspect many debt-stressed US residents are buying as cheap as they can , currently

so do they reduce buying , or do they go into deeper debt , because they would already be buying US-made if it was the best option for them

 

[sptrawler]

if a product it is imported into a nation

there are three ( main ) reasons it is viable

1. it isn't made in that nation

2, it is better than locally made products ( so the buyer will pay more )

3. it is noticeably cheaper than locally made products

i suspect many debt-stressed US residents are buying as cheap as they can , currently

so do they reduce buying , or do they go into deeper debt , because they would already be buying US-made if it was the best option for them

Here is an article on U.S discretionary / no discretionary spending.

An update on US consumer sentiment: Is growing uncertainty casting a chill on spending plans?

In the latest McKinsey's ConsumerWise research, we look at new and emerging US consumer spending trends that will impact businesses in 2025 and beyond.

www.mckinsey.com

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

If prices go up they will be double fcuked. The percentage living paycheck to paycheck is nearing 50%. can't find table, can you?

While your figures ring true the culture of work in the USA is different. They are less unionised so the artificial constraint on available jobs from union thugs or professional cartels is not as pervasive as in Australia.

Americans in general are also more likely to work longer hours or get a second or third job rather than go on welfare handouts when in financial distress.

So the figures quoted do not have as dire an effect on people as they would in Australia with our Centrelink safety hammock.

gg

 

[basilio]

This Executive Order attempting to drive Chinese shipping out of business is going to be a total torpedo to international trade.
The Trump administration is also demanding allies impose similar charges or face US retaliation.

Exclusive: Proposed US port fees on China-built ships begin choking coal, agriculture exports​

By Lisa Baertlein, Karl Plume and Timothy Gardner
March 20, 202510:18 AM GMT+11Updated 10 days ago

• Summary
• Companies

• Trump's fees on China-linked ships disrupt coal exports, Xcoal CEO warns
• Agriculture exports face uncertainty due to proposed shipping fees, traders say
• Potential fees could increase costs for energy exports, American Petroleum Institute warns

LOS ANGELES/CARLSBAD, California, March 19 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's plan to revive U.S. shipbuilding using massive fees on China-linked ship visits to American ports is causing U.S. coal inventories to swell and stoking uncertainty in the embattled agriculture market, as exporters struggle to find ships to send goods abroad.

Trump is drafting an executive order that would rely on funding from a U.S. Trade Representative proposal to levy fines of up to $1.5 million on China-made ships or vessels from fleets that include ships made in China.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/proposed-us-port-fees-china-built-ships-begins-choking-coal-agriculture-exports-2025-03-19/

 

[divs4ever]

This Executive Order attempting to drive Chinese shipping out of business is going to be a total torpedo to international trade.
The Trump administration is also demanding allies impose similar charges or face US retaliation.

Exclusive: Proposed US port fees on China-built ships begin choking coal, agriculture exports​

By Lisa Baertlein, Karl Plume and Timothy Gardner
March 20, 202510:18 AM GMT+11Updated 10 days ago

• Summary
• Companies
• Trump's fees on China-linked ships disrupt coal exports, Xcoal CEO warns
• Agriculture exports face uncertainty due to proposed shipping fees, traders say
• Potential fees could increase costs for energy exports, American Petroleum Institute warns

LOS ANGELES/CARLSBAD, California, March 19 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's plan to revive U.S. shipbuilding using massive fees on China-linked ship visits to American ports is causing U.S. coal inventories to swell and stoking uncertainty in the embattled agriculture market, as exporters struggle to find ships to send goods abroad.

Trump is drafting an executive order that would rely on funding from a U.S. Trade Representative proposal to levy fines of up to $1.5 million on China-made ships or vessels from fleets that include ships made in China.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/proposed-us-port-fees-china-built-ships-begins-choking-coal-agriculture-exports-2025-03-19/

interesting !

i hold several coal stocks ( which mine in Australia ) GNC , SGLLV , and some Aussie-based iron ore stocks , this MIGHT be a tailwind for those companies ( especially those that have their own port facilities )

will have to think overnight which holdings are currently trading 'at an attractive price '

thanks

given the early futures have the ASX SPI at negative 91 , it MIGHT be a good day to pick some cherries ( great prices )

 

[divs4ever]

The Trump administration is also demanding allies impose similar charges or face US retaliation.

.. that will test Albo's IQ and spine especially with a Federal election on the horizon ( May , i believe )

 

[DannyB0000]

.. that will test Albo's IQ and spine especially with a Federal election on the horizon ( May , i believe )

Albo and Dutton will kiss the ring with Trump, I can’t see either of them putting up much of fight unlike Canada. The fed election is May 3.

 

[rcw1]

Published 31/03/25 at 12.30am - News Corp Media:

ASX Trader: This rare market signal often foreshadows a crash - it’s flashing now​

This rare market signal that’s appeared before six of the biggest stock market crashes in history is back and it’s sounding the alarm, writes ASX Trader.

A rare market signal that hasn’t appeared since just before the Covid crash is back.
It comes from Dow Theory, one of the oldest tools used to understand how healthy or sustainable a market trend really is.

Even though it was developed over 100 years ago, it still offers surprisingly useful insights - especially when parts of the market start sending mixed signals.

Right now, Dow Theory’s Fifth Tenet - which says “the averages must confirm each other” - is being tested.

That simply means multiple key parts of the market should be moving in the same direction if a rally is real and strong.

And that’s not happening.

What does “The averages must confirm each other” actually mean?​

Originally, this rule looked at two important stock indexes:

- The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), which includes major companies that make products.


- The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT), which includes companies that move those products — like railroads, airlines, and shipping firms.

If both were rising, it suggested the economy was truly growing - goods were being made and delivered.

But if one was going up and the other wasn’t, it was a sign that something might be off.

Today, investors also use this idea with modern indices like:

- The S&P 500 - made up of 500 large companies, many of them global tech giants.

- The Russell 2000 - made up of 2,000 smaller U.S. companies that tend to be more sensitive to changes in the real economy.

Lately, these two have started moving in different directions - and that’s something Dow Theory says we should pay attention to.

What happened before the Covid crash — and what’s happening now​

Between late 2018 and early 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to new highs.
But the Dow Transports never followed.
That gap - or non-confirmation - showed up months before the Covid crash.
Many didn’t notice it at the time, but in hindsight, it was a warning that something under the surface wasn’t right.
Now, we’re seeing a similar pattern.
Since the October 2022 market low, the Industrial Average has recovered strongly.
But the Transportation Index still hasn’t caught up.
Once again, the averages aren’t confirming each other.


These charts show the Dow Jones Industrial making a new high while Dow Jones transport made a lower high.

A closer look: S&P 500 vs. Russell 2000​

This same kind of split is showing up between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.

The S&P 500 is close to all-time highs, thanks mostly to a few very large tech companies.

But the Russell 2000 has struggled, failing to break past its high from late 2021.

Why does that matter?

That’s when the Fed began raising interest rates.

And smaller companies - like those in the Russell 2000 - are more affected by rising rates. They often have more debt and less access to cheap funding.

As rates went up, small-cap stocks peaked - and haven’t recovered since.

What’s interesting is that the S&P and Russell have usually moved together for the past 10+ years.

There are only two major times they’ve diverged:

1. Late 2019, just before the Covid crash

2. Now, since the end of the 2022 bear market

And during both times, a similar divergence also appeared between the Dow and the Transports.

Is it just a coincidence? Possibly.

But according to Dow Theory, these disconnects can be early signs of trouble.


The S&P 500 vs the Russell 2000.

Why small-cap stocks might send the first warning​

Smaller stocks don’t trade with the same volume as the big names in the S&P 500.
That means big investors can’t sell their positions all at once - they have to slowly exit over time, to avoid moving the market too much.
It’s like a fisherman reeling in the line gently instead of yanking it.
This kind of quiet selling often starts well before the market as a whole turns down.
That’s why, in past downturns - like 2000, 2007, 2020, and even 1987 - smaller stocks and economically sensitive companies started falling first, even while big-name stocks kept rising for a while.

A look back at history​

This idea of one part of the market failing to confirm another has shown up before every major downturn in the last century.

It was seen before:

- The 1929 crash

- The 1973–74 bear market

- Black Monday in 1987

- The dot-com bust in 2000

- The 2008 financial crisis

- And the 2020 Covid crash

In each of these cases, a divergence between key indices appeared before the real damage was done.

What could it mean this time?​

Just because the market is diverging again doesn’t mean a crash is guaranteed.

Sometimes, the weaker index catches up.

Other times, the stronger one pulls back.

It’s not a prediction - but it’s a signal that the current rally might not be as solid as it looks.

For those learning about market structure, this is a valuable concept.

The longer these divergences last, the more they suggest that the market’s strength is being driven by a small number of stocks — not the broader economy.

When Dow Theory signals a potential market divergence - as it has now - seasoned investors don’t panic, but they do get cautious.

Here’s how professionals typically respond:

1. Exit Weak Areas

Smaller companies and cyclical sectors are often the first to falter. Many investors reduce exposure to these.

2. Focus on Quality

Capital flows toward companies with strong balance sheets and reliable cash flow. These are seen as safer bets during uncertain times.

3. Manage Risk Proactively

Traders tighten stops, lower leverage, and hold more cash - giving them flexibility if markets shift quickly.

4. Watch for Market Confirmation

If weaker parts of the market (like small caps) rebound, the danger may pass. But continued lagging is often a sign of deeper issues.

5. Add Defensive Positions

Investors may increase holdings in stable sectors (like healthcare or utilities) or allocate more to gold and bonds.

Bottom line​

Dow Theory is a yellow flag, not a red one.

It doesn’t tell you when or how much the market might fall - only that the internal structure of the market is out of sync, and historically, that’s been a precursor to trouble.

The market is near all-time highs, led by a few big tech names.

But underneath the surface, other parts of the market - like small caps and transportation stocks - aren’t playing along.

According to Dow Theory, that could be a warning worth watching.

Whether you’re new to investing or just trying to understand market trends, this classic principle is a great reminder that what’s happening below the surface matters just as much as what’s making headlines.