Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[over9k]

Markets are getting nervous. This is your single biggest indicator of general market sentiment and as you can see it's shot up by miles since mid feb.

HY = High Yield
IG = Investment Grade

(risky but high return vs AAA rated but low return. Rates are plotted on the left and right axes respectively)

 

[TimeISmoney]

They're totally cooked.

White House Says Gold Reserves May Be Used to Purchase Bitcoin

A senior White House official has hinted at the possibility of the U.S. utilizing its gold reserves to acquire more Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

What Happened: Bo Hines, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, suggested in an interview that the U.S. could capitalize on the gains from its gold holdings to purchase more Bitcoin.

This move, according to Hines, could be a budget-neutral way to increase the country’s Bitcoin reserves.

 

[divs4ever]

They're totally cooked.

White House Says Gold Reserves May Be Used to Purchase Bitcoin

A senior White House official has hinted at the possibility of the U.S. utilizing its gold reserves to acquire more Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

What Happened: Bo Hines, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, suggested in an interview that the U.S. could capitalize on the gains from its gold holdings to purchase more Bitcoin.

This move, according to Hines, could be a budget-neutral way to increase the country’s Bitcoin reserves.

???

wouldn't they be better just putting some Government servers on to mining bitcoin ?

it is not as though the US is deficient in computers or power to run them

but gold just magically appears doesn't it ( or you just steal it from an invaded country )

 

[TimeISmoney]

???

wouldn't they be better just putting some Government servers on to mining bitcoin ?

it is not as though the US is deficient in computers or power to run them

but gold just magically appears doesn't it ( or you just steal it from an invaded country )

I think you have to ask why Trump wants to make fake money or a currency that isn't easy to follow; a lot of conspiracies could come out of this question.

 

[divs4ever]

I think you have to ask why Trump wants to make fake money or a currency that isn't easy to follow; a lot of conspiracies could come out of this question.

MAYBE the theory is bitcoin is easier to track and trace via the blockchain

that would be an interesting twist to government surveillance ( the Government actually tracking it's own spending )

if bitcoin is traded electronically it should be very traceable ( after all nearly all US communication is mirrored as it goes through the exchanges )

personally i would still prefer physical commodities with physical delivery ( gold , wheat , oil etc etc etc ) if the government wants taxes .. i will send it a bull or several dozen eggs

 

[TimeISmoney]

MAYBE the theory is bitcoin is easier to track and trace via the blockchain

that would be an interesting twist to government surveillance ( the Government actually tracking it's own spending )

if bitcoin is traded electronically it should be very traceable ( after all nearly all US communication is mirrored as it goes through the exchanges )

personally i would still prefer physical commodities with physical delivery ( gold , wheat , oil etc etc etc ) if the government wants taxes .. i will send it a bull or several dozen eggs

If hackers use it, safe to say there's a certain level of anonymity.

 

[divs4ever]

If hackers use it, safe to say there's a certain level of anonymity.

not for long if several Governments embrace them , it is just the way governments are ( we MUST control it )

 

[over9k]

And a slaughter to end the week.

Meanwhile (because I can't be bothered to post in both this and the inflation thread any more):

 

[divs4ever]

UK Column News - 28th March 2025​

https://yewtu.be/watch?v=n88hqmm8e_Q

 

[TimeISmoney]

More butt hurt comming, the 2nd of April tariffs should push it down further. I said there would be a few dead cat bounches and I think there'll be a few more to come.

 

[DannyB0000]

More butt hurt comming, the 2nd of April tariffs should push it down further. I said there would be a few dead cat bounches and I think there'll be a few more to come.

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And to think there was a record amount of money from Australia going into US stocks at the start of the year. Super funds were all in with US stocks. A few people have lost their shirts now, joined the party to late.

 

[TimeISmoney]

And to think there was a record amount of money from Australia going into US stocks at the start of the year. Super funds were all in with US stocks. A few people have lost their shirts now, joined the party to late.

Recessions and uncertainty are 2 things the markets never like. Until we get past these, I think all you'll see is more bull traps.

 

[over9k]

So the S&P ended the day 2% into the red and futures are another 2% into the red as of saturday afternoon.

My spidey sense is saying we're at the start of a bear market. I base this on nothing but my spidey sense.

Famous last words but it looks like my spidey sense might have been right.

 

[divs4ever]

So the S&P ended the day 2% into the red and futures are another 2% into the red as of saturday afternoon.



Famous last words but it looks like my spidey sense might have been right.

well a bear market is notionally down 20% ( or more )

if i were the slash 20% off the current share price of many of my ASX listed holdings , there is not many i would like to buy at that discounted price

sure some REITs would look tempting ( but they have been under pressure for a while )

COL @ $16 ( ish ) maybe , NIC , yeah i would be tempted there , ILU and IGO , that would be cheap ... but is there still more down (than just 20% )

the big 5 ( including MQG ) not so tempted there

ZIM , would be tempted there as i would with a discounted KGN

not exactly overwhelmed with choices

and the ( bittersweet ) sad part is i have several take-over deals to complete , so in ( say ) four months time i will have some cash , i really should find a place to park it ( wisely )

 

[DannyB0000]

I would like to buy NAB OR WDS for $17 for my super fund if things really get nasty, currently 60% cash with Super. The last time NAB and WDS was that cheap was during the March 2020 crash so fingers crossed.

 

[divs4ever]

I would like to buy NAB OR WDS for $17 for my super fund if things really get nasty, currently 60% cash with Super. The last time NAB and WDS was that cheap was during the March 2020 crash so fingers crossed.

good luck

WDS is always possible some continue to have high expectations there

i hold WDS ( mainly courtesy of the BHP deal )

 

[over9k]

I would like to buy NAB OR WDS for $17 for my super fund if things really get nasty, currently 60% cash with Super. The last time NAB and WDS was that cheap was during the March 2020 crash so fingers crossed.

Why those?

 

[divs4ever]

Why those?

well $17 for NAB would be a fair price ( it doesn't seem to stumble as often as WBC )

given a choice between NAB and WBC sub $20 i think most would take NAB

i have never held NAB , however if all 4 were steeply discounted i would probably buy back into ANZ as it still tries to grow inorganically

 

[DannyB0000]

Why those?

NAB for the dividends, usually you can't but

well $17 for NAB would be a fair price ( it doesn't seem to stumble as often as WBC )

given a choice between NAB and WBC sub $20 i think most would take NAB

i have never held NAB , however if all 4 were steeply discounted i would probably buy back into ANZ as it still tries to grow inorganically

NAB for long term dividends, at $17, I would consider the stock as a steal, usually you can only buy NAB that cheap in your dreams. In 2020 the stock was about $17 in the depth of panic selling, you just had to ignore the pessimism.

With WDS same deal with long term dividends. The last time WDS dropped to $17 was when oil went negative in 2020 and then share price was $36 2 years later. I thought assuming the Americans finish up with stagflation the energy companies should remain profitable, people will still need oil and gas to get by even in a downturn.

 

[Knobby22]

I remember in the early nineties. Westpac came close to insolvency. Just remember they are highly geared investments.