The future of Australian property prices

[robots]

hello,

no, you can buy a place in melton, frankston nth or a host of other places for 4x

but its not a birth right or citizen right this income to median thing, its just nonsense that its brought up

no worries man, myself and others just comment on the state of the real estate market

and 2yrs after the biggest financial event since 1929 RE prices have moved higher than pre-GFC while most other assets have continued to fail, OH WELL

please dont discount your position in 30-40yrs time

thankyou
professor robots

 

[So_Cynical]

hello,

no, you can buy a place in melton, frankston nth or a host of other places for 4x

2 of the most hellish places in oz...the thought that people go deep into debt to live there is simply chilling. :headshake

Ballarat FTW

 

[Mr Z]

Angst-on

Some parts of it are OK.

Gold did quite well as well Mr Bots FWIW, if you look at it in AUD terms.

Considering what the AUD did through the GFC in USD terms everything here copped a hammering! I only wish I'd been set up to go for UST's at the time! I could have switched back into anything Oz for a big discount. But alas my BSD is not so B or S!

The weekend! Lollipops and sunshine... we hope!

Cheers people!
Z

 

[MR.]

Post #573 in the TZL thread I wrote this "Originally Posted by UBIQUITOUS
I have averaged down since $4, with over half of my shares being acquired around 40cent. I now have close to 1 million shares, at an average of about 60c. This pyramiding is a strategy which will work for me .

I expect it will. The technology and upside was good enough to tempt Mark Bouris out of his 'mortgage man' comfort zone to become chairman of a tech company. And we all on this thread should know good Mark Bouris is in small business.

Under his leadership, the company at 27 cents last week was a far better proposition than at its high under the former board of $7.20. I expect a share price in the hundreds of dollars (if the technology isn't sold off at an earlier date).

Anyway, this is a property thread and its all about leveraging yourself to make money and without much grey matter needed.

Mate I read that TZL thread, lets not go discussing grey matter. (bit of a cross thread thingy here but will be brief, besides Ubi brought it here) If there was ever someone who knew what was going on and really knew nothing. It's a bit sad read really, such dedication to have in a company.... Ever thought of pulling the levers yourself? Ever thought of buying some property?

Now you claim the TZL share price should be in the hundreds of dollars? What a promoter! Are you for real?

Prawn gave some good opinions early on, along with others as time went on. What do you need? A 50% gain to think you have your money back before spewing a million shares?

Ubi you claim

The technology and upside was good enough to tempt Mark Bouris out of his 'mortgage man' comfort zone to become chairman of a tech company.

Mark Bouris started Wizard home loans and sold out in 2004 for something like half a billion dollars. Joined TZL in 2009 when the share price was $1- and has seen it fall to high 20's and back to say 40. The upside is so good that Mark Bouris and Ken Ting have purchased no shares excluding Ken's 72,725 which he came to the table with. They have both been given a few I see.

Hope it turns out as you expect!

 

[trainspotter]

Meanwhile back at the ranch ..... ANZ and the ABS reckon we have a chronic shortage of houses? Can this help sustain the prices of homes in Ozzie Land? Does it even contribute to the overall picture? Is it a classic case of supply and demand? All these questions and more will be revealed in the next few years. Could be sooner if and when the banks put up the rates !

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Geee...that's an awful lot of land and homes

http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/component/content/article/11321.html


HOME BUYERS WINNERS IN BOUNDARY MOVE

From the Minister for Planning

Thursday, 29 July 2010

Melbourne’s home buyers are the big winners with 24,500 hectares of developable land – enough to create 134,000 new homes - incorporated into Melbourne’s boundary today.
Planning Minister Justin Madden said the planning scheme amendment to expand the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) which today passed through Parliament would redefine the city’s limits and was fundamental to maintaining housing affordability.

“This is a significant moment in Victoria’s planning history and will be the last significant shift of the boundary our generation will see,” Mr Madden said.

“Expanding the boundary is a major component of the Brumby Labor Government’s long term plan to manage Melbourne’s growth, keep house prices affordable and ensure our city remains one of the world’s most welcoming and liveable cities.

“Maintaining liveability and safeguarding future housing affordability depends on making good planning decisions now, so we can protect the lifestyle in existing suburbs and brand new communities well in to the future.

“The Brumby Labor Government supports sustainable population growth and is determined to link growth with new job opportunities, transport links and services for families.“

Mr Madden said the next stage in providing more housing in the growth areas would be consultation on the Growth Area Framework and the preparation of Precinct Structure Plans (PSP) for Melbourne’s newest suburbs.

“The Brumby Labor Government has allocated $10 million to prepare PSPs in Melbourne’s new growth areas,” Mr Madden said.

“These masterplans provide the foundation for our newest communities laying out parks, shopping centres, schools, housing, employment precincts, roads and connections to public transport.

“They ensure that as housing is built, there is appropriate planning and resources to deliver vital infrastructure that new communities need to preserve our renowned quality of life.”

Mr Madden said infrastructure in growth areas, particularly public transport, would benefit from a dedicated funding source in the Growth Areas Infrastructure Contribution (GAIC).

“We are taking the responsible action of releasing more land for housing alongside a clear plan to fund the basic services and infrastructure for people who move into these areas,” he said.

“The Brumby Labor Government is taking action to manage growth and to help families secure their lifestyle.

“With the GAIC now in place and the boundary moved, the detailed planning work for housing, infrastructure and new communities can now begin.”

Mr Madden said the amendment would also protect 15,000 hectares of native grasslands in Melbourne’s west and a further 6,000 hectares of land would be zoned for rural conservation purposes.

 

[MR.]

ABS or ABA?

2008? Got anything new?

 

[Mr Z]

BIS are going for a +30% over the next 3 years Man they are going to be bitching about affordability if that comes to pass!

LOL... from -40% to +30% ! my god, what a spread

Who's crystal balls are good?

Roll on spring!

 

[trainspotter]

ABS or ABA?

2008? Got anything new?

Sorry MR. - you are right again. It is the ABA and not the ABS. Must get me a manicure so I can hit the keyboard better. I have the ANZ document for 2010 on my desk in a PDF format. Have not had a chance to read it fully. Will post on Monday once I have disseminated the information.

Good post UBI !! That should take care of the "supply" part of the equation for sure.

 

[cutz]

I vaguely recall the US had a perceived housing shortage long before the market headed south. This may have been a reason why buyers were comfortable loading up on debt, the thinking may have been that the shortage will create demand, push up prices, and debt to equity will be restored to reasonable levels ect. ect.

This rest is history.

In my opinion bubbles are not driven by many of the stats previously mentioned on this thread , the fear of missing out is the biggest driver, many here believe the shortage is a myth including myself.

 

[Mr Z]

I vaguely recall the US had a perceived housing shortage long before the market headed south. This may have been a reason why buyers were comfortable loading up on debt, the thinking may have been that the shortage will create demand, push up prices, and debt to equity will be restored to reasonable levels ect. ect.

This rest is history.

In my opinion bubbles are not driven by many of the stats previously mentioned on this thread , the fear of missing out is the biggest driver, many here believe the shortage is a myth including myself.

Ireland had a 'shortage' as well.... government often has a way of moving to solve a 'problem' just at the wrong time?! Is the timing good in VIC... we C!

Bubbles are a beast of loose credit pure and simple. When you get over leveraged supply meeting over leveraged demand the potential to leave the rails and travel to an unrealistic place presents itself. People being what people are tend to cease caring about reality at that point, well all but one reality --> the price! It is the over leverage that provides the pop! I laugh at many of the times the term 'bubble' is misapplied... as far as journos are concerned if we want it to go up then its not a bubble, if we don't like it going up then it is a bubble.

At the moment the credit supply in housing would argue against us being in full bubble territory, it is just too tight. You can argue extended market but I don't think we are running on rocket fuel and about to flame out. Having said that it does not preclude a decent size correction, but... I think, not the US type wreck of 40%-90% carnage, depending on where you look. Yes some places got hit for 90%... some worse if you wanna really talk wreckage (very small minority)! but 40%-50% is not hard to find and just occasionally some places that never went up much are doing much better.

Anywhoooo... I wonder if the volatility that has come to most markets will find its way into realestate to one degree or another.

 

[robots]

hello,

oh yeah, they back on it Trainspotter

this happened in US, UK, Ireland and in a few more minutes Spain will get a mention, hehehehehehehe

amazing,

thankyou
professor robots

 

[Mr Z]

Yes.... truly

 

[electronicmaster]

OK. When the USD devalues 50% by the end of this year. What will happen to home prices then? After the rest of the currencies get adjusted down I mean.

Would people listen to this man?


Bubble John Symond "it's different here"

 

[electronicmaster]

OK. When the USD devalues 50% by the end of this year. What will happen to home prices then? After the rest of the currencies get adjusted down I mean.

Would people listen to this man?


Bubble John Symond "it's different here"

Oh I see, this is the plan:-

Revealed: The home loan that could save you a fortune

http://www.news.com.au/money/proper...ve-you-a-fortune/story-e6frfmd0-1225870019522

HOMEBUYERS are to be offered never-ending mortgages in a bid to overcome Australia's affordability crisis.

ING Direct, Australia's fifth largest lender, is preparing to sell loans that have no fixed term and no requirement to repay any capital along the way.

At current rates, the interest-only loans would cut repayments on a $300,000 mortgage by $5000 a year.

Repayments would be kept to a minimum, allowing borrowers to benefit from capital growth in their property.

"People are needlessly being denied the chance to buy a property while prices spiral rapidly out of their reach" ING Direct CEO Don Koch said.

"There is an urgent need to provide more affordable options and borrowers should be able to choose whether they want to repay the capital, or not."

Mr Koch wants to position the bank as a "mortgage partner for life", with borrowers carrying the same interest-only loan from property to property for as long as they wish, accumulating equity from rising house prices as they go.

Another words
NEW AGE SLAVERY

It is evil I say

:bricks1:

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,

oh yeah, they back on it Trainspotter

this happened in US, UK, Ireland and in a few more minutes Spain will get a mention, hehehehehehehe

amazing,

thankyou
professor robots

I would like to graciously say that since MY calling of the top a while back in this thread that house prices have not risen past my call and in fact as pointed out MANY pages ago some have even fallen more than 20%+ in that time.

i am a legend

thankyou

 

[Mr Z]

OK. When the USD devalues 50% by the end of this year. What will happen to home prices then? After the rest of the currencies get adjusted down I mean.

If this happens there will be no net change and it will be status quo.

Devaluing only really means something if you manage it unilaterally!

+ nobody seems to be saying HOW the US will devalue in a formal sense, in a world of floating currencies that is a hard trick.

If the market devalues the USD by that amount places like Australia will be the net recipient of capital flows, this will not in itself cause major dramas and should underpin our markets in general... after all the money has to go somewhere.

50% is huge, and yes I am aware of the rumor, BUT I would not bet on it... and I still don't see how they formally devalue.

 

[Mr Z]

i am a legend

I love this thread, I normally don't get to hang with royalty!



i am a chit kicker




How can you tell he is the king?

Well he is the only one not covered in chit, isn't he?

MP

 

[robots]

I would like to graciously say that since MY calling of the top a while back in this thread that house prices have not risen past my call and in fact as pointed out MANY pages ago some have even fallen more than 20%+ in that time.

i am a legend

thankyou

hello,

yes well done Nun, good to see you back around

i have mentioned that numerous times just recently but my posts keep getting removed, hopefully this one stays up

apparently the USD, Gold, CDO's, IRS, US, UK, Spain and Ireland are of more benefit to Aussies than the situation with regard to aussie property prices

oh well

thankyou
professor robots

 

[trainspotter]

This 50% USD devalue thingy by the end of the year. Is this the correction we had to have? What will cause this plunge? What are the tells for a currency collapse? If a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to hear it fall .... did it really make a noise??

Is this the end of the world and we should all start stocking up on supplies as everything in 2011 will be worthless?

Ludwig von Mises's rule: the first job of an economist is to tell governments what they cannot do.

John Symonds role is to sell money under the auspicious title of "Aussie Home Loans" .... get it ?? From what I can make out he does a pretty good job of it.