YES ! The Australian housing market has none of the same dependencies or relationships to other financial markets. Its a veritable island in a storm, unique and virtuous.
Get with the program TS
The future of Australian property prices
- Thread starter Joe Blow
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YES ! The Australian housing market has none of the same dependencies or relationships to other financial markets. Its a veritable island in a storm, unique and virtuous.
Get with the program TS
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YES ! The Australian housing market has none of the same dependencies or relationships to other financial markets. Its a veritable island in a storm, unique and virtuous.
Get with the program TS
ZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZ .. *what* HUH ??? Sorry ... I was too busy transferring money overseas to notice !
Huh... I had you pegged for a trench coat with oz's sewn into the liner. :
or a yachetee with a golden keel!
Our property market is special silly! Have you not been paying attention? Sleeping I see... !
I think I am gunna buy a farm.... look out sheepies!!!!
:or a yachetee with a golden keel!
Our property market is special silly! Have you not been paying attention? Sleeping I see... !
I think I am gunna buy a farm.... look out sheepies!!!!
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Did ya notice the choices with the UK thingy?
Like who cares both point to great investments!
What the? Wikipedia has a "Australian Property Bubble"
Must be true then!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble
"House price indicator based on property cost versus rent"
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...s_rent_as_percentage_over_or_under-valued.pdf
Now that looked good!
Like who cares both point to great investments!
What the? Wikipedia has a "Australian Property Bubble"
Must be true then!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_property_bubble
As if! Where does this rubbish come from!
"House price indicator based on property cost versus rent"
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...s_rent_as_percentage_over_or_under-valued.pdf
Now that looked good!
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How did this slip by?
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Me too sometimes...
'Paper' often gets disparaged without a thought as to what it actually is/means. Irritates me a little on the odd occasion.
Anywhooooo....
A likely catalyst moving forward--->
Morgan Stanley Says Government Defaults Inevitable
The US can't do what it has committed to do, the maths just will not work... some form of default is coming and will be met with higher rates. However the first option is always 'print more money' (really a form of default), when the market twigs to the fact that direct monetization is going to be on going.... then it gets interesting.
Anyway, it all means rates go on a fly sometime.... $64 Q, when?
It is a bond bubble really, all else is servant to that.
Hi Robots.... spring is almost here! Melbourne about to 'spring' into life, happy times.
LOL... screw it all, cars where the place to be!
From the MS article
“Outright sovereign default in large advanced economies remains an extremely unlikely outcome, in our view,” the report said. “But current yields and break-even inflation rates provide very little protection against the credible threat of financial oppression in any form it might take.”
Outright is the operative word! It does need to be anything like outright to cause problems. QE is a form of default by incremental devaluation, they may even attempt a formal devaluation or any number of other debt restructuring measures. The fact remains they are borrowing more and they cannot pay back current commitments if you include all unfunded liabilities. It is very simple to conclude that some form of default will occur as there is no alternate save some China like growth rate and no concomitant growth in government. Even that may not do it when you consider than the US government is approaching 50% of GPD. Another unsustainable trend point toward default. No, no outright default but big, big QE at the very least.
JMO
Hello,
yes thats right Trainspotter, the thread has been hijacked by continual postings regarding bonds, IRS, defaut swaps, CD Obligations and the issues facing the UK and US
man we are different, its paradise here everywhere you go, no matter which corner you stand on
only a few here see this, oh well, the doomers just flog the line in bloggosphere, followers
thankyou
professor robots
yes thats right Trainspotter, the thread has been hijacked by continual postings regarding bonds, IRS, defaut swaps, CD Obligations and the issues facing the UK and US
man we are different, its paradise here everywhere you go, no matter which corner you stand on
only a few here see this, oh well, the doomers just flog the line in bloggosphere, followers
thankyou
professor robots
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Can somebody please tell me if it will always be a good time to buy property with money which I don't have? Because that's the impression I get from some posters on here.
It sure seems like a no brainer. If so why isn't everybody at it? Hang on.....
It sure seems like a no brainer. If so why isn't everybody at it? Hang on.....
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Horses for courses robots. Those that chase the paper trail and make money know no other way. Sure there is money to be had in shares. Tech/a and Trembling Hand have proven this. Not for me. Mr Z has good case point arguments that make sense and he obviously is making money.
UBI on the other hand will remain forlorn and out in the wilderness unable to commit to one way or another. Too busy navel gazing.
Nevermind robots ... we all need a roof over our heads. Mine is made out Bristile Clay and my walls are brick. Got the gas heater on and putting my feet up in the lounge room. Aaaaaaaah I am feeling the afterglow of property right now.
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Can somebody please tell me if it will always be a good time to buy property with money which I don't have? Because that's the impression I get from some posters on here.
It sure seems like a no brainer. If so why isn't everybody at it? Hang on.....
WOW UBI .. even for YOU this post is a bit platitudinous. Would you buy shares if you have no money? Would you go to a store and buy product with no money?
Me thinks you are really scratching for traction now. Try a different approach ... Help a brother out and actually advise us of your experience.
I await with my retinas stretched to capacity.
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R.I.P kimosabi, mr burns, medicowallet, numbercruncher, pepperoni, singlefished, Tom R, chops a must, dowdy, oh well
I am sure there are a few more we could name and shame Professor robots ... afterall it has been a few years or so of naysayers pulling it down. I am still waiting for this so called "bubble" to burst. More like a slowdown in velocity. The banks have already taken care of the wannabes.
But we have already agreed on this matter. Where is Professor Keen on this matter?
Walk tall robots ... walk tall.
I am sure there are a few more we could name and shame Professor robots ... afterall it has been a few years or so of naysayers pulling it down. I am still waiting for this so called "bubble" to burst. More like a slowdown in velocity. The banks have already taken care of the wannabes.
But we have already agreed on this matter. Where is Professor Keen on this matter?
Walk tall robots ... walk tall.
Not quite old bean...
Keen may still be right about degree of correction dependent on how and when the bond market corrects its bubble. When the bond market turns and our property market hangs together then you can do a victory dance. Until then it is all speculation.
The other defacto rate rise coming is high oil prices (again!), by around 2014 we should be seeing a lot more price pressure generally due to energy cost. That is totally aside from what the manics have done with our money supply.
A few hurdles to negotiate yet...!
If we do it with even a mild 10% correction (in real terms of course!) we will have done well IMO.
Anyway... first lets get through spring!
Keen may still be right about degree of correction dependent on how and when the bond market corrects its bubble. When the bond market turns and our property market hangs together then you can do a victory dance. Until then it is all speculation.
The other defacto rate rise coming is high oil prices (again!), by around 2014 we should be seeing a lot more price pressure generally due to energy cost. That is totally aside from what the manics have done with our money supply.
A few hurdles to negotiate yet...!
If we do it with even a mild 10% correction (in real terms of course!) we will have done well IMO.
Anyway... first lets get through spring!
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http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...&cls=506&clsPage=1&docID=AGE1008127P1CH7LARVS
Better bring back the FHOG and make it $40k! no $50k. There's plenty of money left in the coffers.....
Just don't go touching NG and changing the tracks!
Better bring back the FHOG and make it $40k! no $50k. There's plenty of money left in the coffers.....
Just don't go touching NG and changing the tracks!
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I wonder if the investors are buying these houses that are being sold due to "mortgage stress" from the FHB? I wonder if the very same people are renting these homes back so they have a roof over their heads?
Are they off the plan type dwellings or are they older homes/units etc?
If they are off the plan loans we are in a world of pain. The days of "flipping" are loooong gone. If they are purchasing existing stock and people have to rent rather than buy it is not so bad. All power to the landlords !
I dunno about the Guvmint handouts to FHB being any more than they are now. $7,000 is more than enough IMO.
2014 eh Mr Z ? 3 more years of Utopia then ? Time to make hay whilst the sun shines I guess.
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The-Elusive-Canadian-Housing-Bubble-Summer-2010
an interesting article on the canadian bubble, which may have peaked, and the australian bubble appears to be perpetually growing
as much as i would absolutely love to own a property, i still have a huge reluctance to add to the bubble and bid on a property at levels 7.5+ income
i am inclined to think that despite the ability for australians to borrow vast sums of debt and be completely comfortable in inflating the bubble further, i have to abstain from that insanity..
cant say i am happily waiting for the inevitable collapse, as many friends and family have invested heavily in supporting the current bubble, and i think it will hurt big time when it finally peaks and falls.. which may be sudden or may well be decades long,, but blindly spending the largest sum of capital that most people loan on a property that in all likelihood will depreciate is not my idea of a wise move
ts or robots, am i seeing it all wrong? or can you explain what factors or arguments can be presented in convincing bears like me to invest in property right now?
an interesting article on the canadian bubble, which may have peaked, and the australian bubble appears to be perpetually growing
as much as i would absolutely love to own a property, i still have a huge reluctance to add to the bubble and bid on a property at levels 7.5+ income
i am inclined to think that despite the ability for australians to borrow vast sums of debt and be completely comfortable in inflating the bubble further, i have to abstain from that insanity..
cant say i am happily waiting for the inevitable collapse, as many friends and family have invested heavily in supporting the current bubble, and i think it will hurt big time when it finally peaks and falls.. which may be sudden or may well be decades long,, but blindly spending the largest sum of capital that most people loan on a property that in all likelihood will depreciate is not my idea of a wise move
ts or robots, am i seeing it all wrong? or can you explain what factors or arguments can be presented in convincing bears like me to invest in property right now?
High energy prices are a defacto rate rise... keep your eye on the oil market there are supply issues that are being masked ATM IMO.
In oil +3% is a glut, -3% a crisis... it is the ultimate just in time supply chain, storage in the system is negligible really. When supply issues become apparent it will seem to be quite fast.
Anyway... if the bond market is kept 'on the reservation' this is the other one that will cause grief and yes 2014 looks like a reasonable guess from what is known publicly.
Might not have to wait that long, some radical things are being bandied about to 'solve' the USA's issues, even speculation of a formal devaluation around the end of the year. I would normally scoff at that one, just how you formally devalue a floating dollar is unclear to me but the source of that little gem has hit the target too often to be totally ignored. The implications are big!? The 'nationalization' of mortgages, and I guess in the process Fannie and Freddie, would be an amazing thing for the champions of the free market to undertake. Mind you they are half way there with all this GSE crap anyway. I really don't know if that will bring the stability intended, I am guessing it will produce a flight from US bonds because it all but assures QE on a grand scale... but it is not like that market is in rational territory at the moment... so?
If only a small percentage of the smoke becomes fire it could be a very interesting year end.
Here is hoping that it is boring.
Yes maybe, 2-4 years of on trend performance.... maybe. Who really knows?
