Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The future of Australian property prices

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There is speculation that in the 6 odd day break across xmas that the US will somehow (????) formally devalue the USD significantly (50%). I would totally discount it if it where not for the source. He is a bit of a hysteria queen but he has not got such a bad track record... :confused: He knows people who knows people.... :rolleyes:

I don't see the market doing it at anywhere near that speed?! and I don't know what the world will make of it if they did (trust shattering??!) but they do seem to be getting desperate to apply a fix that will work.

:2twocents
 
There are differences between most countries property markets that result in anomalies to their relative performance.

1) Relative population growth rates (high in Australia, but much lower in the US and UK and negative in Japan)

2) Mortgage default rates ”” the 90 day default rate on Australian home loans is about 15 and 30 per cent of the level of equivalent default rates on US and UK loans despite historically higher interest rates.

3) Tax treatment of housing - in the US capital gains tax is levied on owner-occupied housing while mortgage interest repayments are tax deductible, neither applies to Australia.

4) Size of their public housing markets - the public housing market share in the UK is far larger than Australia, which in turn has a much bigger private rental market.

5) Rates of home ownership (APPROXIMATES ONLY - 54 per cent in the Netherlands, 42 per cent in Germany, and 35 per cent in Switzerland, but about 70 per cent in Australia)

6) Responsiveness of housing supply to changes in demand - low in supply-constrained countries such as Australia, but higher in many countries such as the US, which has had a problem of excess supply.

7) Urbanisation of their population living in their largest cities as measured by the so-called “Zipf curve” (high in Australia but considerably lower in the US, UK)

Zipf's law, an empirical law formulated using mathematical statistics, refers to the fact that many types of data studied in the physical and social sciences can be approximated with a Zipfian distribution, one of a family of related discrete power law probability distributions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zipf's_law

Some of the reasons as to why "It's different here" - Now this does not mean we are bullet proof to a possible correstion but are some "reasons" that IMO believe when the rates start biting and the IRS & CDF's and USD falter then we have a slightly stronger model that the "other countries". Then again I could be completely wrong and the whole housing market will collapse by 40% at 11.37am on the 11th January 2011 compliments of Steven Keen.

Pretty boring stuff these informative posts. Can't we go back to the name calling again?
 
Nice post TS!

I have always argued we are relatively stronger all though I don't buy all the reasons that are put forward for that. The difficulty is in putting a hard number on it! IF the 30%+ comes true it will be very damaging due to the average Aussies love of the castle (high ownership!). That is a government changer if ever there was one, I expect that will be fought with all weapons available, traditional and non.

How we manage to get by without a scratch.... or duco shining as BIS has it (+30%?! 3 years?!), while the rest of our brothers are in the panel shop still has me a bit nervous about the prospects for the BIS outlook. Some smart guys (smarter than me anyway!) have money on it. Maybe at worst we will only slip into neutral for a while... but those ratios do need to unwind a bit!!! Bifurcated market? Mining states on the rampage while the SE corner slips? We saw that starting to develop a few years ago.

Hmmmmm....

Oh yeah...

YA IDJIGIT! WTF U TIN U ARE SAYIN MAN! IFFUN I HAD A DAWG AS BUTT UGLY AS U I B SHAVIN ITS BUTT AND TELLING IT WALK BACKWARDS! U IS 1 DUM MF!

Better?

Love
Z
 
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaahh .... the serenity of home ownership ! :cool:

LOL @ Mr Z ... yeppers much improved ... your Spanglish is coming along nicely!
 
trainspotter said:
This 50% USD devalue thingy by the end of the year. Is this the correction we had to have? What will cause this plunge? What are the tells for a currency collapse? If a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to hear it fall .... did it really make a noise??
Click to expand...

I've seen two different sources that say the USD is to devalue. First source got the info from the people who control the world (from last year), and says the USD will devalue minimum 30% Maximum 50%.

The other source (this year) is from the insiders of the Federal Reserve, and says the USD will devalue 50% (they can do it in 16 days or if they wanted 6 days). This source also warned of the collapse of the three major Banks AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae ahead of time due to his inside sources.

If people here like to see more info on this, see :- https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=577044&postcount=106

and

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=576864&postcount=104


trainspotter said:
Is this the end of the world and we should all start stocking up on supplies as everything in 2011 will be worthless?
Click to expand...

I think it is a easer way to pay of the $206 Trillion dollar debt, and introduce the SDR globally.

Basically, the USD is no longer the reserve currency of the world.


trainspotter said:
Ludwig von Mises's rule: the first job of an economist is to tell governments what they cannot do.
Click to expand...

In this case the economist is the Elite families that owns the Central Banks and have small clubs that control all the governments of the world. One is Known as The Builderburg Group

trainspotter said:
John Symonds role is to sell money under the auspicious title of "Aussie Home Loans" .... get it ?? From what I can make out he does a pretty good job of it.
Click to expand...

Oh ok. That is interesting to know.
 
Freddie and Fannie are GSE's not banks? and they have already failed and are operating in conservatorship, they are all but nationalized, which is very likely IMO.

AIG is an insurance company, again not a bank! and well, ... it has been saved once! God knows what its books look like now but you would have to imagine, given its humungus roll in the derivatives scene, that they would sooner nationalize it than let it actually fail. The financial world believes it cannot let AIG, Freddie or Fannie go. The short term damage and pain would be too much for them to bear... so they will not fail, they will be underwritten by the system.

As for banks... yep well, just watch this list! Dropping like flies! :D

USD down... sure, by how much and when... who knows for sure! ;)
 
trainspotter said:
There are differences between most countries property markets that result in anomalies to their relative performance.

1) Relative population growth rates (high in Australia, but much lower in the US and UK and negative in Japan)
Click to expand...

Half wrong Tranny :nono:

According to Wiki, Australia's per annum population growth is

  • 1.2% ~ ranked #127 (United Nations)
  • 1.01% ~ ranked #112 (CIA world fact book)

United States of America

  • 0.97% ~ ranked #131 (United Nations)
  • 0.98% ~ ranked #129 (CIA world fact book)

The United Kingdom

  • 0.42% ~ ranked #170 (United Nations)
  • 0.28% ~ ranked #175 (CIA world fact book)

So while Australia's population growth is slightly higher than the US and significantly higher than the UK...the figures suggest that population growth is pretty much insignificant when it comes to housing bubbles...especially when you consider the following.

Peoples republic of China

  • 0.58% ~ ranked #156 (United Nations)
  • 0.66% ranked #147 (CIA world fact book)

The Central African nation of Burundi has one of the highest annual population growth rates (3.8%)...and i cant find anything about a real estate bubble there. :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate
 
Mr Z said:
Freddie and Fannie are GSE's not banks? and they have already failed and are operating in conservatorship, they are all but nationalized, which is very likely IMO.
Click to expand...

Yes correct. And they did they fail years ago.

Mr Z said:
AIG is an insurance company, again not a bank! and well, ... it has been saved once! God knows what its books look like now but you would have to imagine, given its humungus roll in the derivatives scene, that they would sooner nationalize it than let it actually fail. The financial world believes it cannot let AIG, Freddie or Fannie go. The short term damage and pain would be too much for them to bear... so they will not fail, they will be underwritten by the system.
Click to expand...

Yes correct, an insurance company. Synthictic CDOs and CD's is the derivatives your talking about I think.


I Can't remember everything lol
 
Excellent retorts electonicmaster and So_Cynical ... some great information gathering there chaps ! Simply superb !

Electro - Can you give any links outside of ASF to further these claims. Sure the USD is likely to falter but we have had Bernacke come out and claim he will stand behind the product he sells. Market has reacted strongly in an upward trend on his words. The problem that I see it is ... if they do disappear down this path it will take out too may players (China for a start) and devalue the USD to this point of no return then there will be nothing left to recover from. It's a confidence thing. If they wipe off the trilions of debt in this manner then I will start stocking up on tinned food. :eek:

So_Cynical - I am the glass half full kind of guy. Sure you might give me an inch but I am gonna take a mile ! :D I am of the opinion that the immigrants that arrive in the other countries mentioned end up in state housing (read ghettos) but in good old Aussie land they have the opportunity to BUY their homes here !

I am off to Burundi ... they might need houses built there !

Fantastic news robots ..... 71% eh? Business as usual brother ! :cool:
 
trainspotter said:
Electro - Can you give any links outside of ASF to further these claims. Sure the USD is likely to falter but we have had Bernacke come out and claim he will stand behind the product he sells. Market has reacted strongly in an upward trend on his words. The problem that I see it is ... if they do disappear down this path it will take out too may players (China for a start) and devalue the USD to this point of no return then there will be nothing left to recover from. It's a confidence thing. If they wipe off the trilions of debt in this manner then I will start stocking up on tinned food. :eek:
Click to expand...

Bernanke is liar. Gold and Silver are near all time highs. That is after failing to depress the prices last week during Options expiry. He wants to print money big time because the market is in a deflationary spiral. Unemployment numbers are increasing big time as well.

Bernanke can't print money (at this time) otherwise Gold and silver will take off big time. The market will catch on too quickly and then it will be game over.


I've been documenting outside links on the Conspiracy thread. I don't place links unless I think the information is true and valid. I have done a lot of research to find out why our governments are acting dumb in regards to economics and why they already have made the country into a police state. And why the media lies to us all or has chosen to ignore whats really happening.

This link details the future of the USD:-

Devalue of the USD that will effect the Oil price

This link details how the Chinese are already acting Bearish on US Treasuries:-

On the Edge with Joern Berninger
 
OH SHEEESH ...... I wrote some really good stuff prior to the meltdown.

Placed links to ANZ 2009 forecasts and all kinds of non replicant posts.

Aaahaahahhahhha ... even responded with associated cross quotes to evidence my stance involved with purist theories. Game on ! :cool:
 
trainspotter said:
OH SHEEESH ...... I wrote some really good stuff prior to the meltdown.

Placed links to ANZ 2009 forecasts and all kinds of non replicant posts.

Aaahaahahhahhha ... even responded with associated cross quotes to evidence my stance involved with purist theories. Game on ! :cool:
Click to expand...

Good stuff trainspotter. How's that boat going mate?
 
knocker1 said:
Yeppa. Just flogged my old boat and have now graduated to something bigger ;-) Nothin like trading the forex
Click to expand...

Congratulations my man ! Maybe this conversation belongs in the "hobbies" thread or similar? Would love to chat about your new aquisition and talk about fuel ratios to rpm and navigation systems. ;)
 
trainspotter said:
Congratulations my man ! Maybe this conversation belongs in the "hobbies" thread or similar? Would love to chat about your new aquisition and talk about fuel ratios to rpm and navigation systems. ;)
Click to expand...

Yes ok. Anyway, just my two bobs worth re realestate there. It is about to take a big hit. Just thought you would like to know.
 
trainspotter said:
Thanks knocker1 ... have been writing the same thing for about 30 pages now. Depends on your exposure I guess.
Click to expand...
As long as one does'nt owe money it should be ok, positive gearing is the way to go. Anyway won't be too long before the aussie starts to nose dive, then I'll be back over there. Goto love currency trading ;-)
 
:eek:
knocker1 said:
As long as one does'nt owe money it should be ok, positive gearing is the way to go. Anyway won't be too long before the aussie starts to nose dive, then I'll be back over there. Goto love currency trading ;-)
Click to expand...

PM me for details ...... afterall this is the property thread !
 

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