The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[tech/a]

But the really extraordinary part is how calm and focused Tech has remained must be tooo busy chatting up blonds, BTW tech / Boggo and others some nice charts and thanks.

An excellent pass time I can recommend it. Particularly if you can find one that makes sence. Fun all the same even if you cant!

Tech,

what are the three lines going though the price on the highs? (blue green and red)

do you think the 4 is complete now, in EW do you allow for minor thrusts?

Cheers

They are a proprietary indicator developed by AGET for their software.
They appear in Wave 4 moves only. Evidently they did extensive studies that showed that these 3 "timelines"
Blue Shortest
Green mid
Red longest
Display a characteristic which can be determinate on the severity of the wave 5 corrective move.
If the wave 5 starts from the Blue then there is an 80% chance (according to their studies which I cant verify) of the wave 5 being quick and severe.
60% at green and 40% at red.
The longer the wave 4 takes to play out the less Severe the wave 5 will be.
You will still get a wave 5 but its not likley to be a crash type move.

Looking at BHP then this is likely the scenerio.
A new low is unlikley and the final wave 5 is likley to be Slow and tedious.

This is the current analysis and until proven false you would be long expecting a wave 5 correction which will be as boring as hell and is likely
around now to the 8th Purple and Blue Make or Break lines (MOB).

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Tech, Thanks for the info.

That's a very interesting way to look at the wave 4 !

cheers

 

[CanOz]

And i reckon about 11:45 or 1:00 Monday will see the end of this little run. But If I'm wrong I'll have a much simpler way of reassessing than what i have seen from most on this thread.

Right on time!

CanOz

 

[MRC & Co]

Right on time!

CanOz

TH is a master of picking what the day will turn out to hold from the beginning. Just reading his posts has allowed me to better this understanding myself. Something seldom found in the trading world, let alone on a public forum.

 

[CanOz]

TH is a master of picking what the day will turn out to hold from the beginning. Just reading his posts has allowed me to better this understanding myself. Something seldom found in the trading world, let alone on a public forum.

Yeah, but c'mon, that must have surprised even him...although this market is acting independently from the US at the moment, so i guess if he could assume the market would do x from the way it finished on Friday then its reasonable.

Just to bring this back on topic, it did look like a corrective intraday move there and it finished up at about wave equality before the normal trading closed.

CanOz

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeah, but c'mon, that must have surprised even him...although this market is acting independently from the US at the moment, so i guess if he could assume the market would do x from the way it finished on Friday then its reasonable.

Just to bring this back on topic, it did look like a corrective intraday move there and it finished up at about wave equality before the normal trading closed.

CanOz

I think it would FAR from surprise him. His read is impecable. Something not seen too often even amongst the most seasoned professionals. Perhaps ask him how many ticks he pulled today (I have no idea), but I bet it far superceeds most know it alls around here. Yet, he is a troll, you won't find this kind of information in many places, far more than I can say for most junk written.

Not sure what that last paragraph meant, wave equality? We closed the gap in the opening minute and then saw poor performances put in globally, with some bad fundamental news thrown in to the mix. We then false break the low near the close and as is expected, funds came in to defend the 600s in cash, rallying us above that into the close and auction. A big buyer remained and artifically inflated our market in the post cash hours, which saw a big gap down into night SPI for those who held shorts. All reasons to take trades and all profitable if you could manage to execute them. Not too hard and probably a realistic depiction of todays action I would think.

 

[tech/a]

Well I was happy with todays grand and did bugger all,went to appointments,had 2---hr long meetings and finished the day Riding my bike home,all without 1 glance at DOM infact I dont even have it connected to IB.

Shouldnt be possible should it?

Oh and $500 to Joe will get a screen shot.
Hell I'm an arrogant toxic bastard.

 

[nunthewiser]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH now that was funny


nice to see you have humour at least tech/a

wot no lattees?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

XAO

The XAO appears to have started a small 5 waves down from last Friday, this implies a small upwards correction needs to follow (tomorrow?) before another 5 waves down to complete a zig-zag correction or something much bigger (to the downside).

The expanded flat scenario could be considered complete with a clear 3-3-5 wave structure, although the 'C' wave can still break the high made by the end of wave 'A'.

The Resource sector index (XMJ) looks very interesting as well. The XMJ has been correcting since the 21st Nov 08 (without making a new low like the XAO) and one can also read a much larger flat completing as well - with 5 small waves down from last Friday's high also.

A number of people on this thread had recently identified several stocks that appeared to finishing corrective patterns upwards. So now is certainly a time where the indexes can make a decent pullback or the resumption of the downtrend into a 5th wave (preferred scenario).

 

[MRC & Co]

Well I was happy with todays grand and did bugger all,went to appointments,had 2---hr long meetings and finished the day Riding my bike home,all without 1 glance at DOM infact I dont even have it connected to IB.

Shouldnt be possible should it?

Oh and $500 to Joe will get a screen shot.
Hell I'm an arrogant toxic bastard.

I don't get the notion that you have to spend all day watching DOM, another misconception of those who don't understand it.

To get good at it, yes you do, but to get good at trading, you need to do those hours with any method.

Some DOM traders do so for 30 minutes to a couple hours a day and can make huge money. Infact, holding just 3 contracts short at 4:30pm would have banked you a grand alone.

Anyways, I'm not taking anything away from EW, simply my gripe with those criticisms and troll calling (from the ususal EW suspects) of guys with invaluable insights.

On with your thread, sorry for the disruption.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Following on from -->
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=415138&postcount=710

The last 2 days have seen the XAO correcting in a small expanded flat that isn't yet complete. Once finished, the XAO should head down to a previous wave 4 of 4 at 3400. After this, I'm still looking at two scenarios that could play out equally: Significant declines, or correcting upwards for several months.

Looking at the XMJ, it too has come to an important juncture that supports further declines or a continuing correction to the upside. Both scenarios appear in the chart, either a larger flat is playing out with a (B) wave downwards to now play out, or a double zig-zag correction upwards to finish the last leg upwards to wave 'B' circle. Like the XAO, the shorter term moves should reveal the direction over the next couple of weeks.

My personal preference is that declines are needed on the XAO to finish 5 significant waves down from late 2007.

Cheers

OWG

 

[Chris45]

Hi, I've just recently joined this forum and am very interested in this thread, being a longtime follower of Gann/Elliott theories and a user of AGET since the mid 90s, so I thought I'd make a tentative contribution.

I'm by no means an expert in any of this but our market seems to pulse to the Square of 9 dates quite well and we could have just seen the end of a 30 day move up to Wave A, so I'm wondering if anyone else is now anticipating a move down to Wave B at about 3445 possibly on April 20?

 

[Lachlan6]

Looking at the S&P 500, I think the count that best synchs up at the moment is a running flat wave B, currently occuring. We would now be in the downward c part of this. Once this is complete, I would be looking for another strong move to take shape, probably up to the 945 area. This would give wave equality between the waves A and C. The big question then is, would that mark the end of the wave (4) and mark a consequent strong move lower in the final wave (5) or will we just be seeing the first stage of the larger upside correction and just be looking for a choppy move in a larger wave B back down.

We don't know the answer yet, the only way is once the action actually unfolds. So the way I am playing this is by looking at long positions as this Running Flat unfolds to look for a ride back up to the 945 area.

 

[-Bevo-]

Looking at the S&P 500, I think the count that best synchs up at the moment is a running flat wave B, currently occuring. We would now be in the downward c part of this. Once this is complete, I would be looking for another strong move to take shape, probably up to the 945 area. This would give wave equality between the waves A and C. The big question then is, would that mark the end of the wave (4) and mark a consequent strong move lower in the final wave (5) or will we just be seeing the first stage of the larger upside correction and just be looking for a choppy move in a larger wave B back down.

We don't know the answer yet, the only way is once the action actually unfolds. So the way I am playing this is by looking at long positions as this Running Flat unfolds to look for a ride back up to the 945 area.

Elliott aside both daily and weekly charts look bearish to me, weekly shows a clear channel down and daily is showing bearish divergence using stoch, add to that comments recently from Faber and Soros suggest lower prices now, possibly the beginning of wave 5.

 

[Chris45]

Once this is complete, I would be looking for another strong move to take shape, probably up to the 945 area. This would give wave equality between the waves A and C.

Yes and that would be consistent with a push back up to 4150ish on our market by May 21 or June 6 prior to the start of the final leg down. I wonder if anyone is watching the SPI Total? I've been finding it makes more sense than the others in this bear market and some of the calculations have worked out quite nicely. Eg, the recent bottom (090306,3102) was only 4 pts off the calculated 1.618 extension level and the date was spot on.

 

[biggles]

Hey biggles,
Look on the bright side, this is for the other EW posters as well, at least there is lots of interest in this thread.
All the knockers will soon move on to argue about house prices or dead cats or cartman's sanity. At least we know there's interest.

Sad!!!!!!
I think they just got worn out by the knockers and have moved on.
I'm cross with ASF, good thing was wrecked

 

[tech/a]

Seems T/H has set a new standard for proof of outlandish (or seemingly) claims of success.

Well in my eye you might as well not bothered with this drivel.

Would of been ten thousand times more effective to just post your broker statements showing real evidence of your claimed success. But I'm sure you have many a reason why we will not see them.[]/quote]


I have to agree there are some stupid claims made.

For those who seem to have problems with Elliott and VSA (Which I use) todays open and closed trade results.

But T/H I think if questioned a $500 donation should go to Joe should proof be forth coming.
Sorts out the charf and helps Joe along if the charf proves to be a teak master piece.

 

[nunthewiser]

Yes totally agree

i too turned 1000 into 10000000000 in 4 days with the use of my awesome hindsightingly trading system

please forward your $500 to joe asap

here i s my proof


tues $1000

wed $ 50000

thurs 1trillion



thankyou

 

[tech/a]

Yes totally agree

i too turned 1000 into 10000000000 in 4 days with the use of my awesome hindsightingly trading system

please forward your $500 to joe asap

here i s my proof


tues $1000

wed $ 50000

thurs 1trillion



thankyou

Why bother posting this Nun?
Whats the point?

 

[nunthewiser]

Why bother posting this Nun?
Whats the point?

LOL was actually wondering about why you posted your post ?

did you want a badge ?

was no other reason for it that i could see

no one was claiming anything in this thread