The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[nunthewiser]

Oh Please. When you have been calling for falls over the last 20 days of the biggest % rally since god knows when then call for a rise just as we start to top out ya got to expect a little heat.

Your have been wrong. Simple as that. Take it.

Nice to have you back dear

 

[Rudy]

Oh Please. When you have been calling for falls over the last 20 days of the biggest % rally since god knows when then call for a rise just as we start to top out ya got to expect a little heat.

Your have been wrong. Simple as that. Take it.

And I supposed you with your superior knowledge was able to clearly see that it would continue going up but forgot to mention it in advance

Why don't you do something really useful and take your know all moronic statements somewhere else. I have yet to see you make any comments of any value on this thread.

 

[tech/a]

From post 573

OZ the charts a Weekly so have given you both the weekly and Daily.

As you know AGET has algorithm wave counts so arent picture perfect.
I dont expect or need them to be in my trading.

The Weekly count (Major waves) look wrong and the lower timeframe count similar to Rudy's looks more symetrical. Ending wave 5 (3) This I prefer.Alternate count in BLUE.

Anyway trading it as a wave 4. until proven otherwise either way its bullish

Err not all T/H.
Now you can see why I prefer simplicity.

Oh Please. When you have been calling for falls over the last 20 days of the biggest % rally since god knows when then call for a rise just as we start to top out ya got to expect a little heat.

Your have been wrong. Simple as that. Take it.

 

[nunthewiser]

without any fluffarising ........... it was a good call actually tech/a

 

[Trembling Hand]

And I supposed you with your superior knowledge was able to clearly see that it would continue going up but forgot to mention it in advance

Why don't you do something really useful and take your know all moronic statements somewhere else. I have yet to see you make any comments of any value on this thread.

Buddy god help any poor sucker starting out trading looking for direction in this thread.

There is no value in this rubbish. As tech alluded to awhile ago. Keep it simple.

Your levels have continually broken yet you complex and endless labeling has kept you blind to the two simplest and most BASIC concepts. SUPPORT and TRENDS!!

I've been bullish since the 7:04 AM on 3rd of March.

Not only was that support there it was standing up in the face of the US getting "oversold", plenty of forewarning of a coming rally

And i reckon about 11:45 or 1:00 Monday will see the end of this little run. But If I'm wrong I'll have a much simpler way of reassessing than what i have seen from most on this thread.

 

[tech/a]

And i reckon about 11:45 or 1:00 Monday

Could you be a little more specific?

 

[tech/a]

Keeping it simple I'm expecting this sort of move.
Still bullish EVEN when we have the pullback we need to have!

On the other points T/H brings up.

I would be very disappointed if those who are watching this thread discard E/W as too complex and without foundation.
I really don't see the need to be wave perfect in analysis if using E/W in a practical trading sense.
Ive used it for quite a few years and rely on AGET as time to label each wave just isn't available.
Using the software without a good sounding of Elliott principals would be plain suicidal!
There are concrete rules you must know them to have any chance at all at having a count that has any chance of being valid. Yes there are and will always be alternate counts.
Clear counts are SIMPLY ----CLEAR.

There is analysis and then there is practical application---the Grand Canyon stands between---.

 

[Lachlan6]

Let's get this thread back on track. The Energy (XEJ) Sector is at an interesting juncture currently. It reached wave equality in the last two days and today's action represented some selling. Will that mark the larger wave (A) and a resultant push lower in the wave (B)? This may be premature when we consider the wave c has only contained three waves so far and ideally should have five.

The bootom line is at this stage I am suggesting the massive downward move is over and Energy is undergoing the big corrective move higher. The area to look for would be 15340 - 16480 at this stage. So I would be looking at any choppy corrective wave B as an excellent buying opportunity.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Guys this is nonsense, Correct me if I'm wrong But,

This is a public forum.

The next time one of you pick the great crash of 2010 or the great bull of 2019 you will rightly be boasting about it and reminding anyone when ever you are challenged. And rightly so. If you make a good call its YOUR good call.

If you are wrong and stay wrong then its fair enough that someone points that out. Even if they aren't a fan of your application. Its not a personal attack its just a fact. You were wrong. Big deal get over it.

This is the EW thread and people have equal right to question or challenge the application of EW or even EW as a form of analysis if they can make a fair argument. To the same people who pimp it as a method. Especially as a counter for newbies coming along looking for direction. Its all to easy to become an internet guru when bad calls that would blow your account in the real world of trading are swept under the carpet. And if that is what you guys want this thread about then its not me who's postings have no value :

 

[biggles]

TH why are they wrong? I don't get what your talking about. Do you think the bull market has resumed !!!! We haven't even broken through 3800 yet.
Most EW technicians prefer to ride the wave 3. I think you need to read a few books on the subject before you bag it.
What a stirrer

 

[Rudy]

Guys this is nonsense, Correct me if I'm wrong But,

[If you are wrong and stay wrong then its fair enough that someone points that out. Even if they aren't a fan of your application. Its not a personal attack its just a fact. You were wrong. Big deal get over it.

TH,

If you can put your bias aside for one post and understood what the EW process is you would not be so critical. No one here is suggesting that the EW methodology is the 'holy grail'. It is a methodology relating to pattern recognition. As a pattern starts unfolding there are patterns that have a higher probability of unfolding than others. When an impulse wave begins to unfold, there is no way of knowing if that impulse wave will be a 5, 9 or 13 wave impulse wave before the event.

The EW methodology will help you realise when the 5th wave is in play that it is a likely turning point.......it does not say that it will be a turning point. It is no different to TA methodologies that use support and resistance levels. Some support and resistance levels work and others don't. TA methodologies of any type are not an exact science, they are methodologies that allow investors/traders to determine higher probability outcomes than normal.....nothing more, nothing less.

Your constant criticism about being wrong only shows everyone that you have no idea what the EW methodology is. It in no way makes them think that you are a brilliant analyst. This is not a matter of being wrong or right, it is a matter of identifying an unfolding pattern.

If there is a strong resistance level that the market breaks through, you don't say to the analyst that suggests that it is a likely turning point "Hey you got that wrong" do you? It is no different using EW methodology. If you must be critical then understand what you are criticising before you do otherwise you just sound like a typical street vandal who gets a kick out of destroying what others are attempting to constructively build.

When we call a possible turning point at the end of a 5th wave in an impulse pattern and it keeps extending we are neither right or wrong any more than TA analysts who say that a strong support level is a possible turning point.

We don't need 'know it alls' on the side lines making constant mis-informed criticisms. If you don't like EW analysis that's fair enough. It doesn't suit every one, but why spoil it for those who are interested and want to learn the methodology. There is no doubt that some personalities don't like to work with great detail and there call is keep it simple. There is no argument with a KISS principle but EW enthusists do believe that there is value in going into the deail and for those who do, why not allow them the opportunity to do so. Or do you want the world to be filled with TH clones in order for you to feel that the world is a better place. Have you ever heard of the saying 'live and let live?'

ASF is a great website and there are forums to suit every one's tastes. It is obvious you have no use for EW so how about finding a forum where you can make a worth while contribution instead of your constant negative views.

 

[Frank D]

When an impulse wave begins to unfold, there is no way of knowing if that impulse wave will be a 5, 9 or 13 wave impulse wave before the event.

Now there are 9 and 13 waves?

No wonder you guys keep chasing shadows

The next time one of you pick the great crash of 2010 or the great bull of 2019 you will rightly be boasting about it and reminding anyone when ever you are challenged.

I’ve got a gut feeling that somehow the E-waves will have predicted the exact highs in April, and the next BUY will be around a lower patterns in MAY.

 

[tech/a]

There are 2 distinct sides to this argument.

(1) The Pro's

Understanding of the methodology.

(2) The Con's

Lack of understanding of the methodology.

Practical application of any form of analysis goes a long way towards crystallising an understanding.

Radge tried this on the "Practical Application of Elliott Wave Analysis" thread.
But as usual people were more interested in their own voice than others.

Mods may consider locking threads presented by obviously qualified people in their field and a babble thread can be opened to mirror it for those who want to see their own voice in print.

That way excellent threads wont get destroyed and MORE IMPORTANTLY Excellent posters wont get fed up and leave!!!

 

[MR.]

From the 12/3/09 above:

As an outsider it does appear one can manipulate or dismiss the waves as one sees fit!

Techa appears to me as being rather optimistic. When Ozwaveguy appearing pessimistic.

Get rid of the emotion and with all emotion cast aside what do the various Elliott waves project?

A rebound has been expected. As these pics indicate on the all-ords and the US S&P. .... As much as I want to believe Techa I would think there is too much pessimism and concern kicking about for a good rebound at this time.

View attachment 28593


View attachment 28594

For me its not about being right or wrong.

Its about the analysis being correct until its proven to be incorrect.

Hi MR,

...... There are times when the pattern being revealed is pretty obvious and other times (such as during a highly complex corrective wave pattern) that the pattern possibly can't be determined until the pattern is almost complete.

...... There is no doubt that there is a natural tendency for any analyst to project their own pessimistic or optimistic bias into an interpretation but that bias is quickly eliminated through the correct application of the process. Cheers

Yes I also like both charts. Happy to post them here. I feel they do reflect along with the optimistic bias and (perhaps a change in the wind) towards Tech/a's trail of thought.

Those which stick out are the ones which I look for I'm only interested in direction. The rest comes from other analysis.

So to conclude:

We don't really appear to need EW. Bloody cartman..... Almost blind Freddy can determine which way the market is suddenly heading, can do that without EW. But EW is still a reference.....

Tech/a's call had little to do with EW it was far more that "other analysis"

So what other analysis:
-Kennas points out the amount of money on the side of the market.

-Trembling Hand points out the support at approx 3200, what was it "very very" or "really really" whatever.....

-Sinner and others suddenly start pointing out a few articles. and I pointed out above "a change in the wind" on tech's decision.

- Mean while, Nun's still shorting BHP....... Huh ........ Skip that bit..... but he's right ofcoarse... LOL, is that a LOL at Nun or a LOL at Nun being right, I can never tell when I read others posts.. LOL, no no, LOL I mean??? huh

- As the charts I posted above, this current drop is basically at it's historical lows. Many would have been looking at similar charts world wide.

Disappearing WayneL pointed out to me on the thread "Cash is king" about not locking up cash funds. Hmmm......, Tech/a if I only had available funds!!!! But would have I used them?

Lets face it the next 20 years is going to look like this:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia19601980.html

This one may swing towards trading yet.
It's "Monopoly" as soon as you don't treat it that way the sooner you're left behind.................................................. or broke!

and I'll add we still have EW posters predicting future waves in different directions with perhaps their bia's still intact.

.

 

[Sean K]

There was some nice constructive discussion on EW until a couple of weeks ago.

I'm sure this thread will get back on track now.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Now there are 9 and 13 waves?

No wonder you guys keep chasing shadows




I’ve got a gut feeling that somehow the E-waves will have predicted the exact highs in April, and the next BUY will be around a lower patterns in MAY.

I seen you mess up a few calls Frank your magic system is hardly perfect!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

LOL, excluding you, Not in this thread anyway!!

that's unfair and unjustified. I talk to Wavepicker on MSN just about every night of the week.

He has been telling me about a rally in shares since start or march or late feb. He also called the rally on the eur/usd. I was not good enough to see it then, It took me till the middle of March to see the pattern of trend.

I posted that in forex factory if you doubt me.

Kennas, I thought you're a MOD and you are ment to show an unbiased opinion in your role here at ASF?

I see that you have a problem with Wavepicker and jump in at him when you get the chance.

I am not innocent in terms of coming to threads and hammering people. But as far as I see it this thread was fine till TH came in and made a comment which u backed up.

I find it strange you say the thread is fixed after you partly ruined it.

I hope this post stays up as I also agree with TH, this is a public forum!

Cheers

 

[nunthewiser]

From the 12/3/09 above:










- Mean while, Nun's still shorting BHP....... Huh ........ Skip that bit..... but he's right ofcoarse... LOL, is that a LOL at Nun or a LOL at Nun being right, I can never tell when I read others posts.. LOL, no no, LOL I mean??? huh

- .

nah m8 NUN not still shorting BHP , nun took a smack in his chops for his impatience and reading of his signals incorrectly , nothin to do with EW either ,,,,, it happens and i,ll laugh at any trader that says it dont

NUN dont claim to be right either , just another trader doing the thang .... happy not to post nothing here other than incoherent jumble like your goodself if it makes my desicions on my trading look as good as everyone elses here

but just for the record .NUN WILL be entering another BHP short shortly IF he gets the green light from the convent soon .

have a great day dear

 

[nunthewiser]

UH ?? why everyone on kennas back ? . all he did was laugh ? .....i have seen questions from him about EW here ....... is that wrong ?


personally dont know what all the hooplah,s about really .


now just to add my bit


LOL LOL LOL

have a great day

sorry for that zero value post

 

[nunthewiser]

OH DEAR! i just scrolled back fight fans!!!


IT SEEMS................ kennas posted LOLOL after TH,s indepth post on his findings . then wave picker and others jumped all over him .......... WTF ?? that cant be right ??? PLEASE do NOT scroll back unless ya want the truth to poke ya in the eye ..........



would like to thank all those involved for some great entertainment as it seems this EW analysis sure is a great indicator and catalyst of human emotion in forums ....... at least no one can deny it works there at least

ok back to working out what count BHP is at