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The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread


ok --- (cooled down a little now) ---- ive actually looked at WOR --

i dont totally disagree with the possible short on this stock -- just curious though Nick --- r u using E/W exclusively to analyze it, cause simple trend lines will tell the average punter a quicker story ---

i still dont think its an immediate short even if yr price point is broken---

Why? --- In laymans terms ---- it needs to break down thru the initial TL (A)

it needs to prove that break by failing the retest of (A) to the upside AND respecting the TL (C) to the downside ---- taking the trade at the top of a momentum cycle would make it very low risk ---

your stop of $15.95 is a bit wide for my liking ----- if the above pans out the (C) TL + a few cents would become the stop line --- similar to your trade but the retest is important i think.
 

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Radge has traded on the SFE floor and CBOT,written a number of books,managed a fund,currently live trades 4 methods in profit and public view right through this period where the larger majority have and are failing.

Has run many seminars (And hates doing them), Has taught more people to trade profitably than you've had hot breakfasts and has been trading before you could count.

Why don't you take a step back and see what you can learn from this wealth of experience rather than attempt to deface it!

I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters.
 
yes but Radge can be wrong just like all of us and if I remember correctly he says he only has a success rate of 40%. Even so he can make money with money management and risk/reward ratio which seem to be the secret with trading. Not that you are right every time
 

haha ---- i think Nick Radge is big enuff and ugly enuff to speak for himself Tech ----

Has taught more people to trade profitably than you've had hot breakfasts and has been trading before you could count.

wrong on both counts there old boy. im not the young wipper snapper u think i am -

Why don't you take a step back and see what you can learn from this wealth of experience rather than attempt to deface it!

[ [/B]

give me an example of how i am trying to deface his experience ?? ---

oh thats right --- anyone who disagrees with what Tech thinks just has to be wrong dont they ---

if u actually took the time to look at what i wrote above u'd see that the trade i projected was pretty much the same as what Nick proposed --- only with an added retest for clarity --------- that meant that the trade may end up being taken at a slightly lower price point, but would have less apparent risk due to the added confirmation plus it could be taken with a tighter stop ----

if that is defacing Nicks experience, then i stand guilty as charged ---

just out of curiousity ----- give us YOUR analysis of the WOR chart Tech ---- I am now genuinely interested in YOUR opinion of how YOU would play it.
 
WOR:- Left chart Yearly and Quarterly, Right chart Monthly


Long term:- Supported around the 2008 yearly lows @ 12.80

But there is a breakout of the 4th Quarter lows in 2008 @ $25.53
which would normally push the market down into the Quarterly lows, and
as far as the Yearly lows…

The is called a breakout and extend pattern….

Medium term:- Wor has bounced off the monthly lows and looks to
be heading up towards $17.65, as it is rising up from the monthly 50%
level in March

If WOR is going to go down lower, it needs to fail around 17.65 in March
and then continue down from APRIL…..

Because we begin to notice the there can be a shift in timeframes in
April where the 50% levels begin to move from above to below.

Because there isn’t any breakout of the Yearly lows, this could result in
a move UP towards the Fair value on 2009.

This is the same pattern that occur in BHP.

Therefore the best set-up to short would be to see $17.65 hit and begin
to reverse down in the last week of March and then continue down in
April.

I’m not bullish on this stock simply because of the 4th Quarter breakout, but in the short-term
it would need to begin to trade below the monthly 50% level and then you can probably relax a bit
if holding shorts.

Otherwise I would think WOR needs to move slightly higher before it
goes down, and if holding shorts I would probably think that any weakness would continue down
from the following Month/Quarter
 

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haha ---- i think Nick Radge is big enuff and ugly enuff to speak for himself Tech ----

That he is.

I have seen forum paticipants often lose excellent posters with needless knit picking--off topic.


Everyone has analysis which doesnt play out.
Must say Ive learnt much from following how the likes of Radge handle these situations.

Guys like Radge dont want to be drawn into a "whos analysis is right and who's wrong" there are countless ways to analyse WOR.
But this IS ELLIOTT WAVE analysis thread.
They are simply and freely bringing their experience to OUR table.
They dont have to.
 


Oz is getting bored so ill have my say and leave --- (sorry Oz --- i know this thread is kinda your baby --- i'll try and stay away for a while)


I have seen forum paticipants often lose excellent posters with needless knit picking--off topic.

IS ELLIOTT WAVE analysis thread.

Tech u keep reminding us that this is the E/W thread and the knit picking is annoying ----- mmmm ---- lets analyze ---

My original statement was in fact a genuine statement/observation regarding E/W --- ie that E/W lags as an entry indicator

Nicks response --- “total rubbish” ---- not just rubbish but total rubbish (that is maximum rubbish folks --- ie nothing of worthwhile substance whatsoever --- just thought i'd make that 'totally' clear)---

he then asked for my opinion on how it lags (after he insulted me )

---- my response --- I asked a further question regarding timing the entry based on E/W IF the Momentum was not marrying up to proposed entry ------ (no reply from Nick yet)

so far my questions have been totally in respect of the E/W theme of the thread ----


Tech --- YOUR next post -------

Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!

So Tech is annoyed by knit picking and posts off topic ------ we may well ask ---- who actually started both those problems this time Tech?

Tech follows up my alternative analysis to Nicks E/W analysis (in which I also asked another question, regarding whether Nick explicitly used E/W on this particular trade idea or not)

And Tech adds ------

I'm all in favor of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with typewriters.

(that was actually funny --- but i wont admit that!)


So what I am seeing here Tech is ME asking broad questions about E/W concepts ---- and YOU posting knit picking insulting comments which are totally OFF TOPIC ----

And u’ve got the gall to call me a fool !!

i also asked genuinely ----

give me an example of how i am trying to deface his experience ?? ---

your response ---- i am knit picking

i rest my case ---- and humbly depart with my simplistic technical analysis of charts which is obviously not good enough or complex enough to be taken seriously ------- (perhaps if i add a couple more indicators and even more colours someone will like it --- lol ---- i'm outa here ---)

ps dont u smile Tech ---- u might hurt yr face
 
Cartman, If you were an Elliott wave - You'd be classified as a bear market 3rd wave with several extensions within - It just doesn't give up

I'm really hoping we can get back on topic sometime soon.
 
XAO
Not sure what was up with the bourse datafeed today, a drop of 62 points occurred in a 5min window. I'm assuming it was a glitch - so i'm going to ignore the drop for the time being.

From the last post we discussed that wave '3' down may be sub-dividing (you might need to scroll back for a bit as there seems to have been an uncanny amount of discussion on this thread in the last few days - probably an indication of 'frustration' and hence an impending bounce).

There has been an intervening 3 wave move (that's been labeled), so either a double 3, double correction or triangle is unfolding. If it's a triangle then I would label it as a (iv) and therefore suggest an impending bounce into wave '4'. More time is needed for the very short term wave structure to unfold. Underlying trend is still down.
 

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Error sees $15 shares sold for 4c

TRADES in QBE Insurance Group shares at $15 and below were cancelled on Monday, after the stock registered an aberrant price under one cent low in afternoon trading.
According to Iress data, some QBE shares traded at a low of 0.4 cents between 1426 AEDT and 1428 AEDT, amid overall quiet dealing in the stock market.

The Australian Securities Exchange announced first that the trades were under dispute and then that trades at $15 and below were "to be cancelled''.

At 1445 AEDT, QBE shares were registered at $15.60, down 70 cents.

Course of sales data showed a 500-share parcel of QBE stock was offered at 0.4 cents at 1426 AEDT.

Shares were being bid at $5.04 each a few second later.

Bids were then made at $9.99 and $10 and upward until 1429 AEDT when the stock was bid at $15.63.
 
Cartman, If you were an Elliott wave - You'd be classified as a bear market 3rd wave with several extensions within - It just doesn't give up

I'm really hoping we can get back on topic sometime soon.


Haha --- now that is seriously very funny Oz ----- as i've said b4 ---- u r obviously a true gentleman of fine character ---- u've put up with all my crap here and patiently waited till it finished ---- so i tip my hat to you --- and i do mean that

i will do u the service of retiring from this thread and leave forthwith ---

:walker:

i suspect some of my friends may also depart as well

:walker::walker:
 

I'd suggest a flat is unfolding (3-3-5) and wave 'c' will be a 5 wave move upwards. Could still turn into a triangle over a longer period, but I suspect once the 5 up is done, a push to new lows as you've shown will most likely occur.

Looking at the bigger picture, I'd also suggest that that this wave 4 is at the same degree as the bigger wave 2 from Mar to May 08. Shouldn't impact ones trading in the short term however, as a push to new lows is expected with a corresponding corrective bounce shortly thereafter.

What this does say to me longer term is that 5 waves down would be visible on WOR, hence like the XAO another 5 waves down will need to occur at some point in the future.

Cheers OWG
 

Hi OWG,

Just looking at the leg down from the termination point of wave 2. Any chance that we might be seeing something like the following playing out? The dotted future lines are not drawn to scale.

 
Hi OWG,

Just looking at the leg down from the termination point of wave 2. Any chance that we might be seeing something like the following playing out? The dotted future lines are not drawn to scale.

Rudy, Thought we'd lost you

Sure it's possible that some form of sub-division is unfolding, I'm really supportive of a wave '4' bounce occurring real soon (eg after one more down leg) - too many indicators are pointing to an imminent short term bounce.

Your wave 'iv' circle is overlapping into wave 'ii' circle, you may want to re-adjust your labeling.
 

Hi OWG,

No chance of you losing me. I've still got too much to learn. Keep up the great work. I agree with you about the overlap but couldn't see a better fit when I produced it. As a learning exercise for me, using your previously provided wave count would you please check to see if I have labeled the sub waves of your wave (i) correctly?

 

Looks reasonable to me Rudy. There are one or two other interpretations in the smaller waves counts, but at the end of the day what you have there is realistic based on the evidence at hand.

Also when I look at the 60min chart and add the MACD signal line, the MACD is in a extreme oversold position - which usually corresponds to the termination point of a wave 3 at this degree.

For the EWers: this smaller 4th wave needs to play out (looking more like a triangle, or alternatively a double flat correction that may have finished today) and then one more small drop to new lows before the bigger wave '4' up, and then the final wave '5' down.

For the non-EWers: This might play out with a little more sideways action tomorrow, followed by drop to around 3000 (on the XAO), a correction back upto 3200 or so, followed by one last leg down to around 2700. This should usher in a multi-month bear market rally (and probably one more chance to sell before the next major leg of the bear market commences)
 
Time for a turn
XAO spot on.--Simple analysis just as I like it.
Click to enlarge.
Looking now for a retracement to 3900 to 4400
 

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Time for a turn
XAO spot on.--Simple analysis just as I like it.
Click to enlarge.
Looking now for a retracement to 3900 to 4400

tech, a query - the last leg from wave 4 to the low looks very much like a 3 wave move - do you have a chart with the details of this last leg?

Cheers OWG
 
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