The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread

[Bobby]

Thanks,
Porper
Nick Radge
Tech
appreciated your feedback .



Hello Cartman

 

[Cartman]

Total rubbish. Here is my analysis of WOR from last night. Read it carefully cartman, then tell me why it lags, why its any different to a momentum strategy and why it will not work in this environment.

lol ----- so u tell me what i say is total rubbish then i HAVE to read what u say --- haha ----- u werent a school teacher b4 u became a trader by any chance Nick? ---

i think u may have misconstrued the 'tone' of my post --- it wasnt directed a u at all --- i was just agreeing with Bob that E/W is a little 'un-specific' ---

re your WOR analysis ---- i did read it ---- and its fine if it works for u ---- personally i would not be shorting it at the moment even if it does drop cause ( and it prob will) -- the last cycle up had too much momentum behind it ----

the time to short it was on the 2 Feb at $14.00 ----- (2 day trade) ----- i dont trade long term and i dont do stocks, but i reckon youll see $16 + before u see $12 minus on WOR ----

for a long term view (which i dont normally do) --- it looks like a possible long at around 13 bucks ----- but my view is subject to quick changes ----- that is why E/W is not my cup of tea ----

for eg -- if u take yr short on WOR at $14.59 --- what if the hourly/daily momentum is bottoming out at the time! --- u could end down a few % if you take yr entry based on E/W alone -------- its fine to have a price point, but if the ducks dont line up why take it? ----

ps no disrespect intended Nick -- u r a long term trader with runs on the board ----- but some of us have to have contrary views, otherwise forum sites would be boring Cheers.

PS Hi BOB ------ not sure i should have revisited this thread --- i often have trouble holding my tongue --- lol ---

 

[Bobby]

PS Hi BOB ------ not sure i should have revisited this thread --- i often have trouble holding my tongue --- lol ---

Gee join the club Cartman , I was a bit of a bullyboy a couple of years back , guess I've mellowed some since :

Have Fun I do .

 

[CanOz]

Gee join the club Cartman , I was a bit of a bullyboy a couple of years back , guess I've mellowed some since :

Have Fun I do .

Have fun you might, but your not exactly putting up a great contradictive case Bobby. Your experience with EW it seems, was not the best.

Was it the analysis or the application of the analysis in a trading plan that was flawed? Do i need to search the archives?


CanOz

 

[Cartman]

Gee join the club Cartman , I was a bit of a bullyboy a couple of years back , guess I've mellowed some since :

Have Fun I do .

haha ---- its all fun for me too Bob ---- sometimes people take me a bit too literally ------

 

[tech/a]

haha ---- its all fun for me too Bob ---- sometimes people take me a bit too literally ------

Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!

 

[OzWaveGuy]

I certainly welcome constructive feedback and even better - when people indicate they are getting value from this thread and are capable of using EW in their trading plans (and many of you have indicated this by posting here or thru PMs), is really encouraging to see.

However, if your really not interested in EW, don't use it, and don't intend to provide value to the EW folks that want to grow their skills here, then perhaps your posting time will be better spent elsewhere in the forum.

There's only a few threads that provide analysis (sometimes deep) on some of the AU indexes and stocks and I suspect this specific thread is providing many a solid foundation on EW (correct me if I'm wrong anyone). Appreciate if this remains the focus of this thread - I know others have different trading systems and technical analysis or don't believe in EW altogether and I accept that completely. However, please accept that many folks here do believe in EW and use this thread constructively.

 

[beamstas]

Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!

Oh come on tech/a, i wanna hear what he has to say!

 

[beamstas]

for eg -- if u take yr short on WOR at $14.59 --- what if the hourly/daily momentum is bottoming out at the time!

Cartman;

Trading isn't about picking the top or the bottom.
It's about finding low risk entries that have the potential to turn into big wins.

If you could take a trade right now that you know would go against you for a few % and then turn into a 2R+ winner, would you take it?

Just my

 

[Cartman]

Better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt!

so do u think im a fool Tech ??

 

[Cartman]

Cartman;

Trading isn't about picking the top or the bottom.

maybe not --- but picking close to it certainly helps the RR ---- depends on how good yr analysis is i guess

Cartman;

If you could take a trade right now that you know would go against you for a few % and then turn into a 2R+ winner, would you take it?

Just my

how the hell do u know what its gona do !!! ----- if u trade as close to the bone as possible those few % will be the difference between being stopped out and picking up yr 2R (maybe more) winner ----- but what do i know --
maybe im just a fool --- lol ---

 

[OzWaveGuy]

XAO
It would appear that a wave '4' correction hasn't yet started to unfold. What's more the short term wave count appears to show flat corrections (shown) that have unfolded which implies a series of wave 2's (eg a lack of alternation between these smaller corrections is strongly suggestive of further subdivisions). This would strengthen the case that wave '3' down is subdividing and still has a ways to go, thus bringing in the 2700 target area squarely into sight.

Once wave '4' has commenced, then the final target range should be much easier to identify, before a multi-month bounce commences (or alternatively, a chance that further sub-divisions downwards will unfold).

Cheers

OWG

 

[Cartman]

I certainly welcome constructive feedback and even better - when people indicate they are getting value from this thread and are capable of using EW in their trading plans (and many of you have indicated this by posting here or thru PMs), is really encouraging to see.

However, if your really not interested in EW, don't use it, and don't intend to provide value to the EW folks that want to grow their skills here, then perhaps your posting time will be better spent elsewhere in the forum.

There's only a few threads that provide analysis (sometimes deep) on some of the AU indexes and stocks and I suspect this specific thread is providing many a solid foundation on EW (correct me if I'm wrong anyone). Appreciate if this remains the focus of this thread - I know others have different trading systems and technical analysis or don't believe in EW altogether and I accept that completely. However, please accept that many folks here do believe in EW and use this thread constructively.

Oz, I respect yr opinion cause u back it up with content --- and u r also obviously a gentleman of fine character ---- if the fact that i find E/W is lacking in some respects means that i should not grace this thread with my contrarian opinions, so be it ------ but differing opinions are where learning begins ---------- i notice a lot of E/W's appear very dogmatic in their religion' ---- u r obviously an expert in the analysis which i appreciate ---- those who wish to ride on your coat tails and pretend knowledge are far more foolish than those like me who are happy to question the apparent anomalies in the analysis -----------

ps i knew i shouldnt have returned (damn you Bob !! )

pps lighten up guys ---- its only one form of analysis ----- geez --- if someone said thay didnt like a head and shoulders pattern as a prelude to a short trade would anyone get upset ??

 

[Lachlan6]

EW working just fine with IPL. Leading diagonal wave (1) followed by the plunge into the wave (3) on the 20th of Nov last year. A running flat shallow wave (4) and now the stock looks to be sub-dividing in the wave (5). The large gap should be resistance to any smaller degree wave ii push up within the larger wave (5), so bottom line the stock looks absolutely terrible and I would ´nt even think about touching it. Unfortunatley I cannot post a chart at the moment but will probably do so later.

Here is the chart I was meaning to post.

 

[beamstas]

what if the hourly/daily momentum is bottoming out at the time! --- u could end down a few % if you take yr entry based on E/W alone

how the hell do u know what its gona do !!!

 

[Bobby]

Have fun you might, but your not exactly putting up a great contradictive case Bobby. Your experience with EW it seems, was not the best.

Was it the analysis or the application of the analysis in a trading plan that was flawed? Do i need to search the archives?


CanOz

CanOz , in the past I spent a lot of time on it & found no advantage .
Nicks reply to me was clear & gracious so I'm going to respect those who find it useful.

 

[Cartman]

gidday Beamer boy --- we have a live one here --- time to go fishing !!


my point --- 'how the hell do u know what its gona do from your E/W analysis?

your answer ---


---- I trade 1 second/1 minute chart formations ---- reading 1 hour/1 day momentum is like trading in slow motion
----- if you cant pick the bottom of momentum in a 1 hour chart --- stop trading !!! --- Roll yr eyes again Beamer --- that was a very clever response ---- yr obviously very intelligent! ----- and im the foolish one around here apparently --- (my turn)

 

[Bobby]

ps i knew i shouldnt have returned (damn you Bob !! )

pps lighten up guys ---- its only one form of analysis ----- geez --- if someone said thay didnt like a head and shoulders pattern as a prelude to a short trade would anyone get upset ??

WHoops " I'll take the blame then

 

[Cartman]

WHoops " I'll take the blame then

Haha ----- tell ya what Bob ---- i'll share it with you --- thats the kinda guy i am -----

nah --- hang on i'll take all the blame ---- im a selfish bast@rd ---- yr off the hook.

 

[Porper]

XAO
This would strengthen the case that wave '3' down is subdividing and still has a ways to go, thus bringing in the 2700 target area squarely into sight.

Ozwave, looking at your chart once all the lower degree waves sort themselves out surely you are looking at more like 2000 as a target ? Not that I am saying that is unrealistic, we are in uncertain times and anything is possible.

When the count gets messy I tend to go to a higher time frame, so here is a very simple monthly chart of the S&P 500.This is an obvious expanded flat pattern which has a way to go yet (time wise).However we are very near a low point I think, with a year, maybe 18 months bounce before the next and final push lower.

A few years yet to the bull market, but big profits to be had in the bounce.

If my wave B is an impulse and is a wave 5 then we will get the same price action as from 99, or if a zig zag............well, we don't have enough numbers left to fall that far and we all live in tents and grow potatoes to survive.