Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View

[iced earth]

EUR/USD : 25 MAY 2010:

As predicted before( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=556153&postcount=27) , the pair is moving in a bearish channel, also in weekly view , we have a pull back after breaking the valid long term resistance line.

 

[iced earth]

EUR/USD: 2 June 2010:

The pair could not break up the upper line of the bearish channel (many times touched it, make it more valid) - now we can see a bearish triangle has formed within this channel. The goal of this tri could be at the lower line of the channel (pic 1)

in weekly view the long term resistance line is been break down ( after one short pull back as I posted above) - now we can see the most important resistance is the low of Aug 2005 around 1.16 (pic 2) - this target is the same as the bearish triangle and channel target as mentioned above.

 

[iced earth]

GOLD 21 JUNE 2010:

Gold is braking the green resistance line, so we could see a considerable rise in this precious metal price...

 

[iced earth]

Oil WTI - 12 Aug 2010:

The upward channel in 4Hr been broken, the target would be around 74 $

 

[iced earth]

Oil WTI - 24 Aug 2010:

Another upward channel in Daily Graph been broken again, the target would be around 66 $

on 12 Aug 2010 while Oil was trading 78$ , it was predicted that oil will slip to 74 $ ( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=573835&postcount=44)

 

[ginar]

Oil WTI - 24 Aug 2010:

Another upward channel in Daily Graph been broken again, the target would be around 66 $

on 12 Aug 2010 while Oil was trading 78$ , it was predicted that oil will slip to 74 $ ( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=573835&postcount=44)

Love your elegant simple charts and analysis , we have similar methodology

........... cheers

 

[iced earth]

Love your elegant simple charts and analysis , we have similar methodology

........... cheers

Thanks a lot ginar,
after years of analyses and trading I came to this conclusion that the most practical method in technical analysis is the most obvious and simplest ones. we might confuse ourselves with complicated charts and indicators but at the end simple pattern will work better. fortunately in stock market and specially in FX market we can wait to observe and catch those simple working pattern and trade on them...if we become able to combine this with Money Management we can enjoy nice results... I am happy we have similar methodology...

Cheers
Mohsen

 

[iced earth]

GOLD- WEEKLY CHART:18 SEPT 2010:

Bullish H&S with the target around 1331 $. Also uptrend channel with higher target...

 

[tech/a]

Having a look at some past charts in particular the EURUSD youve had a bad run

 

[iced earth]

Having a look at some past charts in particular the EURUSD youe had a bad run

Technical analysis cant and wont be 100% certain, just give you higher probability, that's way Stop Loss should be put as insurance in all situation. lets say if 70% of T.A targets will happen and you have a logical money management , you will be a winner at the end, that is my strategy...

 

[tech/a]

Technical analysis cant and wont be 100% certain, just give you higher probability, that's way Stop Loss should be put as insurance in all situation. lets say if 70% of T.A targets will happen and you have a logical money management , you will be a winner at the end, that is my strategy...

Agree

But I do note that your "style" is purely Technical Trend/Channel and Support and resistance based---nothing wrong here but wonder if the introduction of Price range and reading of volume might not help find more reliable points of entry and exit---thats my strategy.

 

[iced earth]

AUD/USD: 29 SEPT 2010:

DAILY VIEW: the pair is moving in an uptrend channel and is near the upper (resistance) line of this channel . (pic 1)

WEEKLY VIEW: The long term resistance line is been passed, this is very important for this pair and we could be witnessed stronger AUD against USD in long term. (pic 2)

 

[weird]

You are visually finding trend lines based on hindsight data, there are so many other trend lines that could have been drawn moving forward on past data that would look nothing like your current trend line.

One of the reasons why this method will never become a mechanical method, because computers will find what actually is, not what you hope it will detect with 'future' major trend lines.

Look at individual swings bars, before the ones you have conveniently highlighted.

 

[iced earth]

Thanks Weird for your comment, But these support resistance lines are upon past of course but the past that happened not what I wish them to be...

no doubt that long term resistance line is been passed up , this is a very strong indication in technical , if we believe in technical of course...

 

[weird]

No worries, but no doubt, my current post will be deleted, and I will be banned, as I have detected yet again an underlying thing on this forum. Bye, and good luck.

 

[iced earth]

HVN : 21.10.10 (weekly chart)

The share could not pass the resistance line (white) and recently broke down the support line (Purple) and now testing Fibo 50% . if this can not hold it we should expect the next support level at around 2.96$ (Fibo 61.8 %) Momentum also is near important 0 level and passing down this level could cause more downtrend (Fig 1)


from another point of view share price is testing another support line (yellow). this line can be Neck Line for tilted Head & Shoulders pattern. If the line passed down the target could b around 1.8$ which is the lowest price of HVN in FEB 2009. (Fig 2)

 

[iced earth]

CALTEX (CTX) -22.10.10 :

The price is testing the white line which acts as a resistance line, this line is also part of a symmetrical triangle.
if this line broken up successfully we would anticipate further upward movement and target cloud be up to red line (more than 20 $)

 

[tminus]

CALTEX (CTX) -22.10.10 :
this line is also part of a symmetrical triangle.
if this line broken up successfully we would anticipate further upward movement

Aren't symmetrical triangles continuation patterns, so shouldn't CTX continue a down trend?

 

[iced earth]

Aren't symmetrical triangles continuation patterns, so shouldn't CTX continue a down trend?

thanks for your comment tminus:

That's right, Symmetrical triangles are mostly continuation patterns, but in some cases could be a reversal pattern as well ( opposite is true for H&S) .(example in fig2)

If this symmetrical triangle becomes bearish, should pass down the lower line of the Triangle and in this case it will be very close to the apex and wont be valid anymore...

another matter which gives hope we might have uptrend movement is that after passing up the resistance (white) line we had a temporary down movement which might be only a pull back before resuming the up trend again...(fig 1)

anyway we have to wait for price above 13 $ then buy (if we dont have it already) ...

 

[tminus]

Thanks for the information, I forgot all about the apex. Similar to what you pointed out happened with MSFT, where the symmetrical triangle became a reversal pattern. It even pulled back to line, and now is acting as support.