Short signals---something different

[Whiskers]

Bothe eventual targets shown on charts.
Will be looking for confirming indicators such as Volume and Price.
Wont be fussed if I dont get all of the move.
Current covers are at $28 and $51.50

Be interesting to see how this pans out tech/a.

I certainly agree with WPL, but I have the main BHP trend going the other direction, because of it's less reliance on oil and better iron ore prices.

Keep us posted what your software says... ie, if it changes it's mind.

 

[Boggo]

I am not on WPL but re the dividend (risk ) discussion, going short on WPL the day before it went ex div would have paid off nicely.

tech/a, my initial target on BHP is $35.11, there are three potential areas using MTPredictor to project target areas.

(click to enlarge)

 

[tech/a]

Boggo.

Yes agree this is GET's TJ's MOB which is very similar.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake,



Ha ha.. I'm not sure they're hearing you mate..

Still, if they are still in the trade it's looking pretty sweet today, a further dollar drop, along with the half dollar drop yesterday (after divy subtraction).. commodities taking a bit of stick globally so possible for another couple of days in before a bounce/rally.. I'd certainly be quite happy in thier trades at the moment..

Regards,

Buster.

P.S. TechA, should be more of this sort of stuff, thanks for sharing.. I'm getting some good info here, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Buster,

Yes it is coincidental that it all happens at the same time isn't it? Some put this down to luck and others skill. But I am sure you agree that assessing one's risk is important.

I agree this discussion started by Tech/A is good to follow. I hope their trades go well.

Regards
Snake

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I don't see that it makes any difference whether you hold over the dividend date .You gain one way and lose the other.

I don't know but I suspect it was pure coincidence tech /a entered over the dividend date,and in the big picture makes no difference to portfolio performance.

It certainly wouldn't stop me entering if your system produced a trade.

Porper it makes a big difference in that you owe the dividend regardless if entering before div.

A: You have a loss and owe the dividend.
B: You have a win and owe the dividend.
C: You sell short after the dividend and risk a big gap down diluting your potential gain when covering the short later.
D: You sell short after the dividend and do not have a gap down and get a good entry.

Is it worth the risk if A and B are the case? Dilution of potential and magnification of RISK.

You might notice I am talking about A and B.

 

[IFocus]

I haven't tested but often see weakness follow though after the div payment so shorting seems like a good idea if the signal is there.

Over all liked the trade idea Tech.

 

[Boggo]

I had my profit stop on BHP set at $34.00 (top of the typical W.5 projection), just got home and I am out.

I am very happy with a 9:1R/R.
Is it the bottom though for BHP ??

(click to enlarge)

 

[Porper]

Porper it makes a big difference in that you owe the dividend regardless if entering before div.

A: You have a loss and owe the dividend..

That is just normal price action, dividend all things being equal is adjusted in the price.

B: You have a win and owe the dividend..

Again, dividend reflected in price.

C: You sell short after the dividend and risk a big gap down diluting your potential gain when covering the short later..

You risk a big gap down anyway, no difference.

D: You sell short after the dividend and do not have a gap down and get a good entry...

If price doesn't go down after the dividend then market price action has caused this through strength, no other reason.

The only real difference that I see is that you may be triggered into a trade when it goes X dividend.

In the big picture it would make little difference.You can avoid this easily enough just by looking on ASX website to see when your stock goes X div.

 

[tech/a]

Boggo

It could be the bottom in this move.
I have the next target if it moves lower at $32.

Certaintly a good trade.Well done.

 

[Boggo]

Boggo

It could be the bottom in this move.
I have the next target if it moves lower at $32.

Certaintly a good trade.Well done.

Ta tech/a, I had been watching BHP since 31 July when it came up in a scan. I thought I had missed it after 1st Aug but it gave me a second chance.
Your post on 21st Aug confirmed what I was seeing was the same.
It worked better (and quicker) than expected, I thought I would have gone out via the trailing stop.

 

[tech/a]

NWS triggered on open this morning. (short)

 

[Boggo]

NWS triggered on open this morning. (short)

Also AMP, ex div today too.

 

[tech/a]

Closed BHP short just after open---$35.46.

 

[BentRod]

Nice trade Tech.

Well done.

 

[tech/a]

And just closed WPL at $50

 

[Boggo]

And just closed WPL at $50

Nice work tech/a

Boggo

 

[Boggo]

Took profits on AMP at $6.53, XFJ index has regained 100 points.

Financial sector recovery until the next yank debacle ?

Boggo

 

[nomore4s]

Took profits on AMP at $6.53, XFJ index has regained 100 points.

Financial sector recovery until the next yank debacle ?

Boggo

Might depend on what happens tonight with the DOW.

But I'm looking for a bit of a recovery, went long on WBC & CBA today based on the strength today, WBC especially showed a solid trend all day on the intra day charts. Nice tight stops and already in profit so will see what happens tomorrow, could get burnt on a gap down yet.

Well done on the BHP & WPL trades Tech.

 

[nomore4s]

Might depend on what happens tonight with the DOW.

But I'm looking for a bit of a recovery, went long on WBC & CBA today based on the strength today, WBC especially showed a solid trend all day on the intra day charts. Nice tight stops and already in profit so will see what happens tomorrow, could get burnt on a gap down yet.

Well done on the BHP & WPL trades Tech.

WBC closed out at break even & CBA for a 1r profit, both done this morning.

Should have stopped and reversed both trades, lol, the benefit of hindsight

 

[Boggo]

WBC closed out at break even & CBA for a 1r profit, both done this morning.

Should have stopped and reversed both trades, lol, the benefit of hindsight

WBCPA went ex div today. Its a WBC preference share and shouldn't impact on WBC though.

The 5 minute chart of the XFJ (S&P ASX 200 Financials) about sums up the financial sector today.