Short signals---something different

[Whiskers]

I nearly went short on WPL on a whim on Friday at close (due to rapid increase of price in short time), then analyzed last night and noticed an exhaustion gap.

Then, nearly went long on it today at close.

Should be interesting to see how it goes. Either way, good luck tech/a!

Short man... go short, to about 43... or at least 52/3 initially.

 

[nomore4s]

Short man... go short, to about 43... or at least 52/3 initially.

43 is a fair whack off the current price

 

[Whiskers]

43 is a fair whack off the current price

Sure is nomore4s.

For me it's based on the direction of oil, 100 in near term then 80 maybe less before it bottoms.

Without giving away what my indicators are, you can see on the monthly chart that the candles are high in the Bollinger band and the blue line is highest but starting to turn down.

The 43 is the length of the A leg reflected down from the recent high, probably B.

I reckon it's half way through a big corrective leg. What's the software say?

 

[Aussiest]

Short man... go short, to about 43... or at least 52/3 initially.

Wow, you could be right. At first i thought that hurricane Gustov may influence the POO, although i couldn't see this happening for too long. Just checked in on POO, and it's down, which is good...

I'll keep my eye on it.

 

[Aussiest]

Just checked POO Whiskers, and it looks like your short is shaping up nicely!

Well done.

I'm not sure whether i am going to follow suit, had some bad experiences with shorts lately, a little jaded

 

[Aussiest]

Well done on the shorts guys :jump:.

(Gosh just noticed POO).

This is what i came up with Friday night, but didn't take them.




I was right about WPL, but just couldn't pull the trigger. I am still paper-trading shorts ATM.

One question: how do you get the guts / tenacity to hang on and not sell as soon as you see a small profit?

 

[BentRod]

BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
Stops at current highs. +10c

Nice Tech

 

[Trembling Hand]

Aussiest your high volume is bogus. It is not what you are trading it as.

 

[MichaelD]

BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
Stops at current highs. +10c

Interesting that both of these were taken on the ex-dividend date.

 

[tech/a]

Interesting that both of these were taken on the ex-dividend date.

Really?

Well there you go---should that have influenced me?

 

[Boggo]

Really?

Well there you go---should that have influenced me?

Giday tech/a

This is an extract (below) from my CFD broker, consequently its an area I need to watch when shorting.

eg. I have BBG in my sights at the moment but I need to be aware that it is going ex on the 22nd

Do you have a target for BHP tech, I am looking at below $36.

 

[tech/a]

Giday tech/a

This is an extract (below) from my CFD broker, consequently its an area I need to watch when shorting.

eg. I have BBG in my sights at the moment but I need to be aware that it is going ex on the 22nd

Do you have a target for BHP tech, I am looking at below $36.

No I understand that---I thought Michael meant something other than the liability

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

If you are shorting and paying the dividends it sort of defeats the purpose of shorting doesn't it? Perhaps it could be called the dividend risk.

 

[Boggo]

If you are shorting and paying the dividends it sort of defeats the purpose of shorting doesn't it? Perhaps it could be called the dividend risk.

That is why you make sure you are not holding it short when it goes ex.
Having said that though, getting in after it has gone ex often means that it has dropped by the dividend amount anyway when you buy it so in reality it may be no different than holding it.

BBG and AMP are upcoming examples.
BBG is going to pay 28.5c dividend, fully franked (30% taxed).
(28.5 + 8.55) = approx 37c less that each share in BBG will be worth when it goes ex.
There is a very good chance that the opening price will be 37 cents lower on the day it goes ex.

So selling short it on the day it goes ex can mean the same effective entry cost as selling short on the day prior to ex.

End result is where do you expect it to go after you get on board.


My and not necessarily correct

 

[MichaelD]

---should that have influenced me?

Maybe. Maybe not. It's not for me to say - they're your trades, not mine. I was merely pointing out a timing curiousity.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

That is why you make sure you are not holding it short when it goes ex.
Having said that though, getting in after it has gone ex often means that it has dropped by the dividend amount anyway when you buy it so in reality it may be no different than holding it.

So selling short it on the day it goes ex can mean the same effective entry cost as selling short on the day prior to ex.

End result is where do you expect it to go after you get on board.
My and not necessarily correct

Perhaps we can encompass that into the dividend risk.

 

[Buster]

Snake,

Perhaps we can encompass that into the dividend risk.

Ha ha.. I'm not sure they're hearing you mate..

Still, if they are still in the trade it's looking pretty sweet today, a further dollar drop, along with the half dollar drop yesterday (after divy subtraction).. commodities taking a bit of stick globally so possible for another couple of days in before a bounce/rally.. I'd certainly be quite happy in thier trades at the moment..

Regards,

Buster.

P.S. TechA, should be more of this sort of stuff, thanks for sharing.. I'm getting some good info here, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

 

[Porper]

If you are shorting and paying the dividends it sort of defeats the purpose of shorting doesn't it? Perhaps it could be called the dividend risk.

I don't see that it makes any difference whether you hold over the dividend date .You gain one way and lose the other.

I don't know but I suspect it was pure coincidence tech /a entered over the dividend date,and in the big picture makes no difference to portfolio performance.

It certainly wouldn't stop me entering if your system produced a trade.

 

[tech/a]

Coincidence yes.
I certainly didnt wait for them to go ex div.
A signal is a signal particularly when you wait for the trade to come to you as I did in this case.
Monitoring daily but will post end of trade target analysis when I get a chance.
Following Rosella's div thread whilst he has an edge I dont think its a reason NOT to take a short trade.

 

[tech/a]

Bothe eventual targets shown on charts.
Will be looking for confirming indicators such as Volume and Price.
Wont be fussed if I dont get all of the move.
Current covers are at $28 and $51.50