Short signals---something different

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake.

Ive used BHP.
My overall analysis of the market is at this point bearish.
As such I'm looking for a direction after this period of whipsawing finishes.
The market "looks" as if it has no idea wether it wants to continue down or resume up.

This VSA chart shows this whipsawing in the XJO the blue trend indicators are all over the place.

Note the really high volumes in the light pink area preceed good moves.
Nothing for us YET on any capitulation of this moves so I'm still bearish over all.



BHP isnt displaying the higher lows and highs assoviated with a change in trend.
More so a corrective move into this wave 4. Its been alerted by AGET that this is what it thinks this move is. At this point I have no reason to doubt this.
So I'm looking for a place to take this short position.
Stochastic is close as are points given to me by other analysis.



Finally BHP's VSA chart.
Yesterdays very tight range reasonable volume bar indicates selling.
Id expect to see higher volume on rises from here--possibly with weakness shown in the bar.
IE closing off its highs.



Will keep this going if interested.
Will be proven right or wrong eventually.

Thanks for the effort Tech.

It is interesting to see two different software packages in the analysis not to mention boggo's Mt predictor.

 

[tech/a]

NWS still developing
WPL is in my book--
BHP is getting more interesting by the day.

 

[Aussiest]

WPL is in my book--

WPL is in my book too! I just need this damned dividend period to end

 

[Boggo]

Can BBG keep this up all the way to the dividend in three weeks ?

(click to expand)

 

[MRC & Co]

WPL is in my book too! I just need this damned dividend period to end

You may also want this hurricane to end!

 

[nomore4s]

You may also want this hurricane to end!

lol, I actually went long on WPL yesterday based on the gap fill bar(Bar from 26.08.08 - entry on a break through the top and stop at the bottom) and also daytraded a parcel today which I closed out a bit early but still made a good profit on, so I'm pretty happy atm.

Will be trying to hold the EOD parcel as long as possible now with a trailing stop.

 

[Aussiest]

Well done nomore!

I almost went long on it at close, and i think it will gap up tomorrow, or at least have another reasonable day. I'm not sure how much steam is left in it, only time will tell.

I'm just a bit risk aversive at the moment due to the MQG debarcle... Poor nerves need some time to recover . But, i will be jumping into some positions soon.

 

[Aussiest]

lol, I actually went long on WPL yesterday based on the gap fill bar(Bar from 26.08.08 - entry on a break through the top and stop at the bottom) and also daytraded a parcel today which I closed out a bit early but still made a good profit on, so I'm pretty happy atm.

Will be trying to hold the EOD parcel as long as possible now with a trailing stop.

Actually, nomore4s, if you don't mind me asking:

How do you handle managing several positions at once? For example, this morning i had to manage WES, and make a decision whether to liquidate or not, and another position. Therefore, missing out on possible day trades.

 

[nomore4s]

Actually, nomore4s, if you don't mind me asking:

How do you handle managing several positions at once? For example, this morning i had to manage WES, and make a decision whether to liquidate or not, and another position. Therefore, missing out on possible day trades.

I only have one daytrade open at a time, as I tend to trade them on either 1min or at the most 5min charts, so have to keep a close eye on them until they are a long way into profit, then just a trailing stop.

I don't daytrade very often as I'm normally busy at work but had a spare few hours today. Most of my trading is done EOD so I only review those stocks after hours as they'll automatically be closed if my stop is hit - stops are reviewed every night. I have about 6 open trades atm.

 

[Aussiest]

Thanks nomore.

Would you keep more than one position open daytrading if you didn't have a full-time job? I do, but it is stressful watching them intensly. I'll have to find a strategy for closing postions early in the morning so i don't miss opportunities

Thanks again

 

[nomore4s]

Thanks nomore.

Would you keep more than one position open daytrading if you didn't have a full-time job? I do, but it is stressful watching them intensly. I'll have to find a strategy for closing postions early in the morning so i don't miss opportunities

Thanks again

I would only open a second position once the first was into profit and didn't require close attention

 

[Aussiest]

Actually, in relation to the original topic. I'm actually thinking it might not be a good idea to go short on too many stocks right now (except financials), as many of them seem bullish. Don't know how long it will last, but CSL and WPL spring to mind. Hell, even BHP is making a comeback.

So, i think i am going to hold off on my short selling strategy, but CSL at around $41.00 will look attractive. It's approaching a record high. But, hey, you know... i am chicken **** at the moment, so i will probably hold off.

 

[Whiskers]

Perhaps we need a change from all this Buy buy buy type threads!

Advanced Get threw out type 1 sells (which are wave 4 corrections in a 5 wave down pattern) on the following tonight.

BHP
NWS
WPL.

Stops would for me be the most recent highs.(From a day to a week on others.)

BHP trade only shown.
For educational purposes only not a recommendation of any sort.

For educational purposes, tech/a, I think BHP has finished wave 5 down and not quite finished minute wave iii up, yet.

Don't trust computer generated buy and sell signals.

I'd stay long until probably $41.98... cos I reckon gold has bottomed and into a primary wave 3 up with some of the commodities to follow soon, as well as the AUD continuing to fall.

I'd go short BHP now since reaching my target with a little gap up today... but not very far.

What does the software say at the momemt tech/a... is it still indicating a wave 4?

From my daily and weekly charts it still looks like the bottom is in and on the way back up again.

Since I'm new to EW I'm curious whether any of the software available tends to get the bigger trends as well more or less reliably.

 

[MRC & Co]

lol, I actually went long on WPL yesterday based on the gap fill bar(Bar from 26.08.08 - entry on a break through the top and stop at the bottom).

Will be trying to hold the EOD parcel as long as possible now with a trailing stop.

Yeh, I nearly went long WPL yesterday also..............

Good luck with the trade!

 

[tech/a]

I'd go short BHP now since reaching my target with a little gap up today... but not very far.

What does the software say at the momemt tech/a... is it still indicating a wave 4?

From my daily and weekly charts it still looks like the bottom is in and on the way back up again.

Since I'm new to EW I'm curious whether any of the software available tends to get the bigger trends as well more or less reliably.

All are still showing wave 4.

 

[tech/a]

BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
Stops at current highs. +10c

 

[Buster]

Hey Tech/a

BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
Stops at current highs. +10c

Not sophisticated enough to get into the shorts yet, but I run these types of threads as I tend to learn some great stuff from them.. particularly the differing mentalities and opinions of those with earlier experiences.

I don't know if I'd short purely as I think that the imminent IR cut may buoy the market for a little while (if it occurs, although it seems to be a given). The fact that you have indicates (to me anyway) that you think the IR cut is already well and truly factored in or you have a little longer time line than I expected..

Would this be close?? Or are you purely trading the EW signals?? Perhaps there is something else to consider that I'm missing??

Cheers,

Buster

 

[Whiskers]

BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
Stops at current highs. +10c

Watching with interest tech/a.

I'm gettin pretty starrie eyed from too many late nights working back counts on my stocks. So I'm startin to get a bit interested if software can make the job easier.

Just as a matter of interest, if my (manual) count is correct it will turnaround about 39/40.

 

[tech/a]

Its pretty simple.
I'm trading technical setups.
I do the R/R.
I'll either profit or be stopped out.

There are many fundamental factors at work.
reflected in price.

Theres a hurrican on the horizon and its
long term implications will only add fuel to
an already smoldering fire.

 

[Aussiest]

BHP and WPL taken today.(short).
Stops at current highs. +10c

I nearly went short on WPL on a whim on Friday at close (due to rapid increase of price in short time), then analyzed last night and noticed an exhaustion gap.

Then, nearly went long on it today at close.

Should be interesting to see how it goes. Either way, good luck tech/a!