S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

baby_swallow said:

Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...

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The market hit its lowest level in months last week.......As shown below, 66% of the 514 participants said the market would be higher, while just 34% said it would be lower. This is by far the highest bullish reading we've seen since we began conducting this weekly poll back in February.

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Investors have seen $806 billion erased from the value of American equities since.....Nov. 6 in the biggest decline since May. ......
“The stock market looks cheap because people are way too pessimistic about what growth looks like for the next 10 years,” said Brian Jacobsen, who helps oversee $208 billion as chief strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds and predicts the S&P 500 will rise 47 percent to 2,000 in 2014. “You can get big and rapid moves in the market when expectations are so low.”

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Even as shares fall, strategists are optimistic about gains next year. The S&P 500 will rally 17 percent to a record 1,585 by the end of 2013, according to the average forecast. The index climbed 1.3 percent to 1,376.96 at 9:36 a.m. New York time today.

Douglas Kass, the founder of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. in Palm Beach, Florida, who recommended buying stocks at the March 2009 low says the benchmark gauge may rise 18 percent to 1,600 next year.....

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Insiders in the energy sector seem especially bullish. INK’s energy indicator is now at 283 per cent, up from 263 per cent last week, with the ratio of buyers to sellers the highest of any of the top 10 sectors of the TSX. “Energy sector investors appear to be anticipating good news when Ottawa decides on the foreign takeover applications of Nexen and Progress Energy,” Mr. Dixon notes.

....similar story in the U.S. Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch points out that the ratio of all shares that insiders have recently sold in the open market to the number that they have purchased stood at 1.58 to 1 last week. That’s less than half the average level over the last decade of 3.4 to 1. The insiders’ sell-to-buy ratio got as high as 6.86 to 1 at the bull market’s high earlier this fall, he notes.

“In other words, at least when measured according to this indicator, the insiders are more than four times more optimistic about their companies’ shares now than two months ago. This much insider enthusiasm is a good sign,” he said.

....Consider this: since the bull market that began in March 2009, there have been just three occasions prior to now in which the sell-to-buy ratio fell below 2 to 1 in the U.S. Each time, it came within a few weeks of a significant low in the market, according to Mr. Hulbert.

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Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy

Folks jumped on 40%+ AAII bears in recent weeks. Silence about this week's 40% bulls -- highest in 14 weeks.

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baby_swallow said:

Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...
Thursday last week, we saw ES continued to sell off but this time with volume of more than 3 million.
ie: a figure more than double the daily average and a figure I haven't seen for a long time.
Looks like the long term "longs" have been liquidating.
I can smell a rat here....something unpleasant will happen in the near future....

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Joules MM1 said:

i thought the spx would at least acquire the 1425 level before looking like zipper head....interestingly a lot of protection got bought this morning and a few technicians were hot on the press talking this over......but i suspect it's much ado about nothing with the topic dujour having only 8 days to agreement in congress et al......

mos def not to be ignored tho.....

http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/2012/11/final-vix-putcallratio-for-friday-nov_30.html

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the weighting is based on actual dollars, or, bets placed on direction and not based on an index or cap weighting.....for mine it's a good look at intra action and expectation and this mornings trades appear to have a just-in-case on a wider time frame......someones expecting some volatility and some cheap protection for the next 14 t days

http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2012.pdf

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Joules MM1 said:

gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......

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Joules MM1 said:

gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......

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Joules MM1 said:

funds buying gold last week but commercials still lean sell side......if the pin goes from metals to equities we are going to see a lot of momo in the indeices......

which is nice

conversely does appear that commecials favour equities or at least the sp500 .....trap n skin

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Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader

Hmm, unfortunate timing. pic.twitter.com/iJcstCAP

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The last time Mark Hulbert updated his insider trading data the market was in the process of bottoming. He said insiders were very bullish. How quickly sentiment changes in a month! His latest update shows a huge reversal in insider sentiment:

“For the week that ended last Friday, this sell-to-buy ratio for NYSE-listed shares listed stood at 6.67-to-1. That means insiders, on average, were selling nearly seven shares of their companies’ stock for every one that they were buying. One month ago, in contrast, the comparable ratio stood at 1.54-to-1.

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baby_swallow said:

This market will be dominated by Cliff in the remaining days of 2012 and probably
will even extend to early Jan if they didn't reach an agreement.
The market will be volatile with little volume...and can go either way.
I prefer if they push the market up to 1500 level...not that I'm long, its because I'm a contrarian.
If the market will surge towards 1500, I will start placing my shorts.....

That's it for me....Happy Christmas everyone and see you next year!!!!

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nysefloortrader said:

the pros are getting everyone bearish on the fiscal mess, and then ramp us up higher. yes that old chest nut.

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