S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[baby_swallow]

Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...
Thursday last week, we saw ES continued to sell off but this time with volume of more than 3 million.
ie: a figure more than double the daily average and a figure I haven't seen for a long time.
Looks like the long term "longs" have been liquidating.
I can smell a rat here....something unpleasant will happen in the near future....

 

[white_goodman]

Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...

repainting

 

[Joules MM1]

Bulls Go All In This Week
Monday, November 19, 2012 at 08:56AM

excerpt

The market hit its lowest level in months last week.......As shown below, 66% of the 514 participants said the market would be higher, while just 34% said it would be lower. This is by far the highest bullish reading we've seen since we began conducting this weekly poll back in February.

(and even more )

S&P 500 in Cheapest Bull Market Since Ronald Reagan
By Whitney Kisling, Inyoung Hwang and Rita Nazareth - Nov 20, 2012 1:42 AM ET

excerpt

Investors have seen $806 billion erased from the value of American equities since.....Nov. 6 in the biggest decline since May. ......
“The stock market looks cheap because people are way too pessimistic about what growth looks like for the next 10 years,” said Brian Jacobsen, who helps oversee $208 billion as chief strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds and predicts the S&P 500 will rise 47 percent to 2,000 in 2014. “You can get big and rapid moves in the market when expectations are so low.”

Even as shares fall, strategists are optimistic about gains next year. The S&P 500 will rally 17 percent to a record 1,585 by the end of 2013, according to the average forecast. The index climbed 1.3 percent to 1,376.96 at 9:36 a.m. New York time today.

Douglas Kass, the founder of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. in Palm Beach, Florida, who recommended buying stocks at the March 2009 low says the benchmark gauge may rise 18 percent to 1,600 next year.....

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/11/19/bulls-go-all-in-this-week-1.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...l-market-since-reagan-trade-26-from-peak.html

:1zhelp:

 

[Joules MM1]

Insider trading suggests markets heading for a rally

Darcy Keith

excerpt

Insiders in the energy sector seem especially bullish. INK’s energy indicator is now at 283 per cent, up from 263 per cent last week, with the ratio of buyers to sellers the highest of any of the top 10 sectors of the TSX. “Energy sector investors appear to be anticipating good news when Ottawa decides on the foreign takeover applications of Nexen and Progress Energy,” Mr. Dixon notes.

....similar story in the U.S. Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch points out that the ratio of all shares that insiders have recently sold in the open market to the number that they have purchased stood at 1.58 to 1 last week. That’s less than half the average level over the last decade of 3.4 to 1. The insiders’ sell-to-buy ratio got as high as 6.86 to 1 at the bull market’s high earlier this fall, he notes.

“In other words, at least when measured according to this indicator, the insiders are more than four times more optimistic about their companies’ shares now than two months ago. This much insider enthusiasm is a good sign,” he said.

....Consider this: since the bull market that began in March 2009, there have been just three occasions prior to now in which the sell-to-buy ratio fell below 2 to 1 in the U.S. Each time, it came within a few weeks of a significant low in the market, according to Mr. Hulbert.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-markets-heading-for-a-rally/article5531737/

 

[Joules MM1]

tweet ness city

Walter Murphy ‏@waltergmurphy

Folks jumped on 40%+ AAII bears in recent weeks. Silence about this week's 40% bulls -- highest in 14 weeks.

 

[white_goodman]

Here's the weekly chart of SP500.
For fans of MACD, the divergence is now very prnounced...
Thursday last week, we saw ES continued to sell off but this time with volume of more than 3 million.
ie: a figure more than double the daily average and a figure I haven't seen for a long time.
Looks like the long term "longs" have been liquidating.
I can smell a rat here....something unpleasant will happen in the near future....

hows that rat going?

 

[Joules MM1]

i thought the spx would at least acquire the 1425 level before looking like zipper head....interestingly a lot of protection got bought this morning and a few technicians were hot on the press talking this over......but i suspect it's much ado about nothing with the topic dujour having only 8 days to agreement in congress et al......

mos def not to be ignored tho.....

http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/2012/11/final-vix-putcallratio-for-friday-nov_30.html




the weighting is based on actual dollars, or, bets placed on direction and not based on an index or cap weighting.....for mine it's a good look at intra action and expectation and this mornings trades appear to have a just-in-case on a wider time frame......someones expecting some volatility and some cheap protection for the next 14 t days

http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2012.pdf

 

[CanOz]

i thought the spx would at least acquire the 1425 level before looking like zipper head....interestingly a lot of protection got bought this morning and a few technicians were hot on the press talking this over......but i suspect it's much ado about nothing with the topic dujour having only 8 days to agreement in congress et al......

mos def not to be ignored tho.....

http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/2012/11/final-vix-putcallratio-for-friday-nov_30.html

View attachment 49807
View attachment 49808

the weighting is based on actual dollars, or, bets placed on direction and not based on an index or cap weighting.....for mine it's a good look at intra action and expectation and this mornings trades appear to have a just-in-case on a wider time frame......someones expecting some volatility and some cheap protection for the next 14 t days

http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2012.pdf

This whole fiscal cliff thing is causing as much volatility as the whole EU breakup no breakup thingy!

Yes they agree, no they don't, yes they do, no they don't.....



CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......

 

[nysefloortrader]

gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......

I think you might be right, even if we do get a bit of a sell off, seaonally the bears get shafted in december anyway, and there is a thing called and xmas rally. It is not just a myth. While the big dogs on the trading floor do the walk away trade. And up we go.

On the weekly chart, things are not looking bearish at all, that is for sure. We could be at 1500 very soon, very very soon,....indeed!

 

[nysefloortrader]

gold silver eq's.....is there anything that's NOT going to come down, ahem, bought down, for le big pop to come......

HUI on the weekly is nearly ready to pop. Gunna be a huge rally in gold and metals soon, you can see it.

 

[Joules MM1]

and le pop she le goes!

is this a gap and go today....spx futes leap 5 points

 

[Joules MM1]

funds buying gold last week but commercials still lean sell side......if the pin goes from metals to equities we are going to see a lot of momo in the indeices......

which is nice

conversely does appear that commecials favour equities or at least the sp500 .....trap n skin

 

[nysefloortrader]

funds buying gold last week but commercials still lean sell side......if the pin goes from metals to equities we are going to see a lot of momo in the indeices......

which is nice

conversely does appear that commecials favour equities or at least the sp500 .....trap n skin

The weekly gold charts says a rally will be coming soon, after some down.

The summation chart in Indicies, is on a buy, that means, if you are a bear, and trying to short, you are in serious trouble for the next few weeks. Big trouble.

1500+ is coming on SPX I think sooner rather than later.

 

[Joules MM1]

from Jason Geopfert:

Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader

Hmm, unfortunate timing. pic.twitter.com/iJcstCAP

personally, i thank the pollies for todays free lunch, rare as they are....

 

[baby_swallow]

This market will be dominated by Cliff in the remaining days of 2012 and probably
will even extend to early Jan if they didn't reach an agreement.
The market will be volatile with little volume...and can go either way.
I prefer if they push the market up to 1500 level...not that I'm long, its because I'm a contrarian.
If the market will surge towards 1500, I will start placing my shorts.....

That's it for me....Happy Christmas everyone and see you next year!!!!

 

[Joules MM1]

S&P 500 wot doth 2013 bringeth?

DAVID ROSENBERG PRESENTS: 34 Charts You Must See Before Making A Move In 2013



Mamta Badkar


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-2013-investment-outlook-2012-12?op=1#ixzz2FzBl6KpU

from the scary memorabillia section of the future cafe:

ok, like, i'll take the de-leveraging picture, oh and can i like get it framed, yeah?

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: S&P 500 wot doth 2013 bringeth?

The Last Two Times Corporate Insiders Got This Bearish, Stocks Went On To Dive



Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism


Read more: http://pragcap.com/hulbert-insiders-are-turning-bearish#ixzz2FzE4wqvS

excerpt

The last time Mark Hulbert updated his insider trading data the market was in the process of bottoming. He said insiders were very bullish. How quickly sentiment changes in a month! His latest update shows a huge reversal in insider sentiment:

“For the week that ended last Friday, this sell-to-buy ratio for NYSE-listed shares listed stood at 6.67-to-1. That means insiders, on average, were selling nearly seven shares of their companies’ stock for every one that they were buying. One month ago, in contrast, the comparable ratio stood at 1.54-to-1.

 

[nysefloortrader]

This market will be dominated by Cliff in the remaining days of 2012 and probably
will even extend to early Jan if they didn't reach an agreement.
The market will be volatile with little volume...and can go either way.
I prefer if they push the market up to 1500 level...not that I'm long, its because I'm a contrarian.
If the market will surge towards 1500, I will start placing my shorts.....

That's it for me....Happy Christmas everyone and see you next year!!!!

That is a good plan.

the breadth and summation are not working in favour for the bears.

It seems that there is NICE room for one push higher LATE DEC - EARLY JAN 2013 and if that happens, 1480 - 1500 then we will drop hard.

What is happpening at the moment, the pros are getting everyone bearish on the fiscal mess, and then ramp us up higher. yes that old chest nut. But we are just in holiday reversals at the moment, that will soon fade and the market in the next few weeks will resuming the rally.

 

[notting]

the pros are getting everyone bearish on the fiscal mess, and then ramp us up higher. yes that old chest nut.

Aint that the truth.
Was watching events unfold on my phone, with headlines of a cliff deal and the market rallying.
Then finally switched on the US business channels and they are spewing all over it.
Unbelievable.