S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[Joules MM1]

If QE3 Happens, It Will Be Different Than QE2 And QE1 In One Significant Way
Joe Weisenthal | Sep. 11, 2012, 3:23 PM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/if-q...2-in-one-significant-way-2012-9#ixzz26Dz6RrrY

"The reaction function of the FOMC seems to have changed. In my simple terms, QE has never always come with the stock market down YTD -- now, it appears we’ll receive it with S&P up 14%."

That's from a Goldman desk note send around earlier today, and it's a great point.

This chart from Doug Short shows it nicely, that all previous QEs and Twists came during periods when the market was at a low.

 

[Joules MM1]

Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund With Conditions, Court Rules

By Karin Matussek - Sep 12, 2012 9:07 PM GMT+1000

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...bailout-fund-with-conditions-court-rules.html

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Bespoke‏@bespokeinvest

The Euro is on pace to open and close above its 200-DMA for the first time in more than a year.$$

 

[Joules MM1]

Investors Turn Slightly More Bullish
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 10:08AM

http://bespokeinvest.squarespace.com/thinkbig/2012/9/13/investors-turn-slightly-more-bullish.html

excerpt

Even after the S&P 500 broke out to new bull market highs in the latest week, very few bulls have come out of the woodwork. After dropping slightly below one-third last week, the latest bullish sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) rose modestly to 36.46% this week. For a market trading at multi-year highs, this relatively low level of bullishness is rare to say the least.

 

[Joules MM1]

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/13/breadth-finally-makes-a-higher-high.html

Breadth Finally Makes a Higher High
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 04:59PM

Over the last several weeks, we have noted the fact that cumulative breadth for the S&P 500 has been lagging the overall market. In fact, for each of the higher highs that the S&P 500 made off the summer lows, cumulative breadth failed to make a higher high. The chart below shows the updated cumulative breadth for the S&P 500 over the last 12 months. Each of the red lines in the top chart correspond to a short term peak in the S&P 500, while the red lines in the bottom chart indicate where the cumulative A/D line was at the time of the short-term peak in the index.

Following today's rally, cumulative breadth made its first higher high since the spring. While breadth still has a bit to go before taking out its highs from back then, the higher high is a sign that the rally is showing signs of broadening strength.

 

[Joules MM1]

Even after the S&P 500 broke out to new bull market highs in the latest week, very few bulls have come out of the woodwork. After dropping slightly below one-third last week, the latest bullish sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) rose modestly to 36.46% this week. For a market trading at multi-year highs, this relatively low level of bullishness is rare to say the least.

SPX now at highest level since 2007 .....not that that means a lot, simply missing media goss surrounding the reach

 

[Trembling Hand]

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/9/13/breadth-finally-makes-a-higher-high.html

Breadth Finally Makes a Higher High
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 04:59PM

Although the Breadth has been a bit of a lagger the 52 week highs has been very healthy for the last 2 weeks.

Will post a chart later.

 

[Joules MM1]

Although the Breadth has been a bit of a lagger the 52 week highs has been very healthy for the last 2 weeks.

Will post a chart later.

......

oh, before you do, here's some breaking news that needs to be read

Russia's Vladimir Putin admits wildlife stunts are staged

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-russia-putin-critic-idUSBRE88C17T20120913

"OF COURSE IT WAS A SET UP"

"Everything I do in this area (wildlife conservation) should have nothing to do with politics. But for a man in my position it is very difficult," Putin said.

Putin, the bloke! .....wot a beautiful man.....wot year are we in?

 

[tinhat]

Joules MM1 there is an air of frivolity in your posts the past couple of days. Are you enjoying the market exuberance?

 

[Joules MM1]

Joules MM1 there is an air of frivolity in your posts the past couple of days. Are you enjoying the market exuberance?

i got hit by one of tech/a's trains this morning.......hopped on for the ride, although i've pared back a lot now, smells like a teen blow-off coming.....

 

[Joules MM1]

http://philpearlman.com/2012/09/14/shrinkologicals-who-is-really-panicking/

Shrinkologicals: Who Is Really Panicking?

Posted by ppearlman
on September 14th, 2012
excerpt

Smart people can criticize and rail against reality all day long everyday forever and do it nobly because leaders the world over HAVE made a giant mess of things. But such nobility is underperforming and you can see it in persistently punk hedge fund performance numbers.

Perhaps, the mess, after being hashed and rehashed, is in the market while price is sniffing out something more constructive.

 

[Joules MM1]

this is what happened on fed day.........blue is tiny(er) size and red is big(ger) size...this displays book depth

pop went the weasels

 

[Joules MM1]

smells like a teen blow-off coming.....

first hints of selling into strength? sell when everyone else has to buy?

twittnessmonster:

Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest

The intraday TIKX just hit -400 for the 2nd time this month. Two big sell programs have sent this market to flat for the day. $DIA $SPY $$

 

[Trembling Hand]

Although the Breadth has been a bit of a lagger the 52 week highs has been very healthy for the last 2 weeks.

Will post a chart later.

As per above. Gold bars are the 52 week highs, blue line 20 day avg of said gold bars.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Some more,
S&P 500 with NYSE ad/dec data,


Nasdaq with Nas ad/dec data strong!

 

[Joules MM1]

[video=youtube_share;ktlRWF-NwwE]http://youtu.be/ktlRWF-NwwE[/video]

Meet The Blogger Who May Have Just Saved The American Economy

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-scott-sumner-2012-9#ixzz26Xb4ofeq

Joe Weisenthal | Sep. 14, 2012, 7:18 AM

thesis, theorist or broad picture, the video is worth a watch and so is JW's write-up worth a read.....

 

[Joules MM1]

twittnull and i

Jim Rickards‏@JamesGRickards

Here's a 20-yr chart of S&P measured in ounces of #gold. By this yardstick, the S&P tanked again Thursday.

 

[tinhat]

Are any chartists starting to think that the S&P 500 is looking a bit toppy?



I was wondering if any Elliot Wave proponents believe we may be nearing the top of Wave 5 (the third wave up) form the bottom of 2009? If so, what sort of correction might be in store? Worst case scenario I can see looking at the chart of the S&P 500 going back to the 1990s is a triple-top correction from a triple top of 2000, 2007 and 2013(?).

 

[Joules MM1]

Are any chartists starting to think that the S&P 500 is looking a bit toppy?



I was wondering if any Elliot Wave proponents believe we may be nearing the top of Wave 5 (the third wave up) form the bottom of 2009? If so, what sort of correction might be in store? Worst case scenario I can see looking at the chart of the S&P 500 going back to the 1990s is a triple-top correction from a triple top of 2000, 2007 and 2013(?).

the botom of wave 4 overlaps wave 1 which invalidates the count on an impulsive incline.....as a basic rule or RN's work

 

[Joules MM1]

http://stocktwits.com/message/9581251

 

[Joules MM1]

hedge eye chart of the day