CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
S&P500 - Analysis and Trading
- Thread starter RichKid
- Start date
-
- Tags
- s&p 500 s&p analysis s&p500
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
- Joined
- 1 November 2006
- Posts
- 4,636
- Reactions
- 3
Hi Can.
Can you explain a little more what you're finding there?
Some kind of mini breakout/ breakdown play?
Can you explain a little more what you're finding there?
Some kind of mini breakout/ breakdown play?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Sure Chops. If you follow Market Profile or believe that markets opens and negotiates value in the first hour. Then either stays balanced and trades "in value" or becomes out of balance and seeks new value, then these numbers can be handy.
We can try and figure out the probability of the market breaking out of the IB range, when it will breakout, how far price will move...etc.
Also, the determination of the IB range is the starting point of course. This has already been done for the ES so I've just used the accepted 60m IB.
You can read more here...
I'm working on Excel with another guy. We did the ES first so our results were similar to Rancho's. Then we're doing the Asian markets, the SPI, TW, NK...then onto Europe as well.
CanOz
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
- Joined
- 1 November 2006
- Posts
- 4,636
- Reactions
- 3
Looks very interesting.
Got some reading tonight.
Got some reading tonight.
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,554
- Reactions
- 1,283
- Joined
- 9 April 2010
- Posts
- 174
- Reactions
- 3
The ES price action is on track to fill the gap that was made on 6th March .....
(Gap 1595.5 - 1607.25)
So, IMO, the sell off will continue. But ES is expected to retrace back up tonight because it gone "too short"
(Gap 1595.5 - 1607.25)
So, IMO, the sell off will continue. But ES is expected to retrace back up tonight because it gone "too short"
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
The ES price action is on track to fill the gap that was made on 6th March .....
(Gap 1595.5 - 1607.25)
So, IMO, the sell off will continue. But ES is expected to retrace back up tonight because it gone "too short"
View attachment 52653
I haven't looked at my profiles yet, or read Jim Dalton's updates, but i'm guessing he'll be saying inventory is very short at the moment....lets see..
- Joined
- 9 April 2010
- Posts
- 174
- Reactions
- 3
High probability is it will revisit the whole VA
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
- Joined
- 9 April 2010
- Posts
- 174
- Reactions
- 3
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Well these levels usually get tested so it wasn't like it was a huge thing. If you learn this stuff and get a bit of help along the way from guys like Jim, then you can figure it out quite easily on your own and compare your own analysis to his when its comes out....
For Friday this is what i see, which also agreed with Dalton's thoughts as well pretty much.
1624.5 was the HOD on Thursday. This spike high is our key inflection point for tonight. If we can accept value above this then we could see a substantial short covering auction. If we cannot trade above this then the downside auction could continue. If we head lower the GAP comes into play. The lower side of the GAP will be resistance again at 1595.5. If it gets taken out then we should see downside continuation after a retest.
This is how I'm expecting the news to play out, i wouldn't trade this...never do, but like seeing how it plays out to see if i can get in sync with the sentiment.
From the news side, I'm guessing a surprise positive NFP report will tank the equity markets, drive up the dollar and drop gold. CL will be interesting, will it get shaken out finally, its putting in an inside week? Short term notes will rally, long bonds will rally....but for how long?
A surprise negative report will rally the equity markets, expecting more Kool Aid (QE) ...tank the dollar and spike GOLD...again CL should tank with an expectation of contracting growth but a weak dollar will mute that somewhat...Long bonds may rally, while short term notes drop?
Can't wait, my favorite Friday night!corn:
CanOz
For Friday this is what i see, which also agreed with Dalton's thoughts as well pretty much.
1624.5 was the HOD on Thursday. This spike high is our key inflection point for tonight. If we can accept value above this then we could see a substantial short covering auction. If we cannot trade above this then the downside auction could continue. If we head lower the GAP comes into play. The lower side of the GAP will be resistance again at 1595.5. If it gets taken out then we should see downside continuation after a retest.
This is how I'm expecting the news to play out, i wouldn't trade this...never do, but like seeing how it plays out to see if i can get in sync with the sentiment.
From the news side, I'm guessing a surprise positive NFP report will tank the equity markets, drive up the dollar and drop gold. CL will be interesting, will it get shaken out finally, its putting in an inside week? Short term notes will rally, long bonds will rally....but for how long?
A surprise negative report will rally the equity markets, expecting more Kool Aid (QE) ...tank the dollar and spike GOLD...again CL should tank with an expectation of contracting growth but a weak dollar will mute that somewhat...Long bonds may rally, while short term notes drop?
Can't wait, my favorite Friday night!
corn:CanOz
Attachments
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Well in the aftermath of NFP we have a classic "P" profile. Usually indicative of short covering. I'm only showing the RTH here as the only thing missing during the ETH was the small balance area around 1621. If the market cannot accept value here then i would expect a test of the spike low again. It is possible that we test the top of the profile and accelerate higher, but unlikely without a test lower first. I'm guessing we balance Monday during the Globex session, then perhaps test the spike low and the 1621 area again during RTH. We may balance for another day before this happens.... I'll be looking for some new longs in strong stocks that haven't yet broken out...
CL and GC made some nice swings, CL broke its TL and then rocketed back up to make a new recent high, expect at least a re-test of 95.5 and perhaps even 94.73...GC broke lower and i would expect a retest of 1397 before continuing lower.
CanOz
CL and GC made some nice swings, CL broke its TL and then rocketed back up to make a new recent high, expect at least a re-test of 95.5 and perhaps even 94.73...GC broke lower and i would expect a retest of 1397 before continuing lower.
CanOz
Attachments
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Well we indeed testing that 1621 area again and so far we rejected it, not very convincingly though. As long as we build value above that level then the short term auction to the upside is still in play. I we breakdown again, then the lows are back in play. We'll see how this compares to Jim Dalton's thinking when i get my updates later...
1630 is the "fairest value" as defined by the POC or Point of Control. The highest volume bar on the histogram.
Update: Dalton is "Short Term Neutral", so 1621 is the range center...
1630 is the "fairest value" as defined by the POC or Point of Control. The highest volume bar on the histogram.
Update: Dalton is "Short Term Neutral", so 1621 is the range center...
Attachments
- Joined
- 12 February 2012
- Posts
- 410
- Reactions
- 29
Despite bruising selloff in assets globally still S&P500 holding above 1600 level.
What we saw last couple of days is adjustments of positions in all types of assets including currency. Not only stocks but also currencies including emerging and frontier currencies went down during last couple of days. For example even Kenyan shilling, Indian and Sri-Lankan rupees all went down last couple of days.
Still S&P 500 and USD uptrend is intact and in the long run USA market should go up further. There is a possibility even S & P 500 can touch 1700 level. Few frontier markets in Asia and North African region also will have strong market and their currency also should appreciate in the coming quarters.
However there will be short term volatility in all types of assets such stocks, commodities and currencies globally.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
What we saw last couple of days is adjustments of positions in all types of assets including currency. Not only stocks but also currencies including emerging and frontier currencies went down during last couple of days. For example even Kenyan shilling, Indian and Sri-Lankan rupees all went down last couple of days.
Still S&P 500 and USD uptrend is intact and in the long run USA market should go up further. There is a possibility even S & P 500 can touch 1700 level. Few frontier markets in Asia and North African region also will have strong market and their currency also should appreciate in the coming quarters.
However there will be short term volatility in all types of assets such stocks, commodities and currencies globally.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
- Joined
- 28 March 2006
- Posts
- 3,554
- Reactions
- 1,283
Follow on from here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=10488&page=41&p=775719&viewfull=1#post775719
Minimum and maximum levels of significance, we are 33 points away from min target.
Max target and significant support level is 117 points away.
Just my
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=10488&page=41&p=775719&viewfull=1#post775719
Minimum and maximum levels of significance, we are 33 points away from min target.
Max target and significant support level is 117 points away.
Just my
Attachments
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
- Joined
- 12 February 2012
- Posts
- 410
- Reactions
- 29
S&P 500 one of my favorites indexes in the investment world along with DOW and NASDAQ. It could go up again breaking 1850 and should reach around 1900 before we see some correction in 2014.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
- Joined
- 10 June 2007
- Posts
- 8,852
- Reactions
- 204
- Joined
- 9 April 2010
- Posts
- 174
- Reactions
- 3
Monthly chart:
The January bar is now within the striking distance of the Dec low.
Weekly chart:
The down bar went past the previous 4 mos lows and it broke the support at 1810.
Daily bar:
After two days of sell off, SPX closed at 1790, the price level which happens to be the last month's Point of Control (POC in Market Profile terms).
Revisiting this POC or the "value price", I expect a pullback from here.
After that, the sell of might continue depending on the current turmoil, ie: funds pulling out from the emerging market countries.
The January bar is now within the striking distance of the Dec low.
Weekly chart:
The down bar went past the previous 4 mos lows and it broke the support at 1810.
Daily bar:
After two days of sell off, SPX closed at 1790, the price level which happens to be the last month's Point of Control (POC in Market Profile terms).
Revisiting this POC or the "value price", I expect a pullback from here.
After that, the sell of might continue depending on the current turmoil, ie: funds pulling out from the emerging market countries.
Similar threads
