Trembling Hand
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Re: S&P Analysis
Not much follow through for Asia today.
Not much follow through for Asia today.
S&P500 - Analysis and Trading
- Thread starter RichKid
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Re: S&P Analysis
That's what I was just thinking! I'm long to the hilt CL on 3 diff models but it doesn't feel quite right....
That's what I was just thinking! I'm long to the hilt CL on 3 diff models but it doesn't feel quite right....
Re: S&P Analysis
People still trade CL? Why not the Brent contracts which aren't so affected by regional issues (re Cushing/Oklahoma)? Although looking at the charts, probably some of those models wouldn't have called for Brent longs since the last swing low was actually higher unlike in CL. IMHO CL ain't what it used to be.
Plenty of fun to be had on AUDUSD today.
I had a good, if rather unusual, week. Reds P/L, blues size (>0 is long, <0 is short).
Woohoo! See ya Tuesday!
People still trade CL? Why not the Brent contracts which aren't so affected by regional issues (re Cushing/Oklahoma)? Although looking at the charts, probably some of those models wouldn't have called for Brent longs since the last swing low was actually higher unlike in CL. IMHO CL ain't what it used to be.
Plenty of fun to be had on AUDUSD today.
I had a good, if rather unusual, week. Reds P/L, blues size (>0 is long, <0 is short).
Woohoo! See ya Tuesday!
Timmy
white swans need love too
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Re: S&P Analysis
If there are certain things you don't understand, just ask and will try and put it in more simple English.
Enjoy the wkend Sinner, don't go too wild on the profits!
If there are certain things you don't understand, just ask and will try and put it in more simple English.
Enjoy the wkend Sinner, don't go too wild on the profits!
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Re: S&P Analysis
haha, yeh, my comment was sarcasm, sorry. Point being, markets used to go and look over the edge of the abyss, before recoiling on Government intervention (as Soros would put it). These days (after GFC) Governments seem to try and frontrun the market, of which is meant to be the frontrunner. So you have a market that is ignoring the entire Greek situation because everybody knows buttons will be pushed and things will come together in time. Any wonder why every major bond auction the market actually watches ends up with a great bid to cover. Markets are muddling through what really should be a major concern (structural deficits creating this debt crisis which no doubt will continue) and bad news is being efficiently priced into the market within a day before it is reversed on the next wave of liquidity. Shocking price action to trade on any form of daily candle trading system (as evidenced by most systematic funds in the BTOP), but makes an easy macro and discretionary overlay (that overlay is what single handily pulled Winton (one of the worlds largest funds) out of negative by switching allocations to sub-strategies).
haha, yeh, my comment was sarcasm, sorry. Point being, markets used to go and look over the edge of the abyss, before recoiling on Government intervention (as Soros would put it). These days (after GFC) Governments seem to try and frontrun the market, of which is meant to be the frontrunner. So you have a market that is ignoring the entire Greek situation because everybody knows buttons will be pushed and things will come together in time. Any wonder why every major bond auction the market actually watches ends up with a great bid to cover. Markets are muddling through what really should be a major concern (structural deficits creating this debt crisis which no doubt will continue) and bad news is being efficiently priced into the market within a day before it is reversed on the next wave of liquidity. Shocking price action to trade on any form of daily candle trading system (as evidenced by most systematic funds in the BTOP), but makes an easy macro and discretionary overlay (that overlay is what single handily pulled Winton (one of the worlds largest funds) out of negative by switching allocations to sub-strategies).
Trembling Hand
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Re: S&P Analysis
LOL I'm feeling a little Greek :bloated::whip
LOL I'm feeling a little Greek :bloated::whip
Trembling Hand
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Re: S&P Analysis
haha, I'm already in, no ammo left, but feel free to join!
Sinner, never actually even tested the models over Brent data, but thx for the idea.
Is that you holding up CL while the rest goes down the pipe?
haha, I'm already in, no ammo left, but feel free to join!
Sinner, never actually even tested the models over Brent data, but thx for the idea.
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Trembling Hand
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Re: S&P Analysis
Its pretty strong. Last hour considering the reaction of the futs & FX to Greek bond swap. everything lost 0.5%, CL went up 0.5%
Very flighty market at the mo
haha, I'm already in, no ammo left, but feel free to join!
Its pretty strong. Last hour considering the reaction of the futs & FX to Greek bond swap. everything lost 0.5%, CL went up 0.5%
Very flighty market at the mo
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Re: S&P Analysis
Hopefully she has legs on her like Black Caviar!
But yeh, CL has been acting by itself lately, moving on supply concerns rather than demand ('risk appetite').
Always the best sign I think when a market shows strength when it should typically be displaying weakness. Then again I thought that about the Aussie a couple days ago and the thing turned on a dime (although I thought looked weak when it should have been strong).
Hopefully she has legs on her like Black Caviar!
But yeh, CL has been acting by itself lately, moving on supply concerns rather than demand ('risk appetite').
Always the best sign I think when a market shows strength when it should typically be displaying weakness. Then again I thought that about the Aussie a couple days ago and the thing turned on a dime (although I thought looked weak when it should have been strong).
skc
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Re: S&P Analysis
Yes I know you were sarcastic... and so was my response
I've only really started trading since 08.
Was there ever a time when government intervention isn't driving every market sentiment change?
Yes I know you were sarcastic... and so was my response
I've only really started trading since 08.
Was there ever a time when government intervention isn't driving every market sentiment change?
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Re: S&P Analysis
Not since I've followed it (although that was the problem in the great depression I believe, no liquidity being provided). My point is it is much more proactive these days, it used to be far more reactive, which is what is making guys like Druckenmiller retire, and Soros and Tudor Jones negative.
Yes I know you were sarcastic... and so was my response
I've only really started trading since 08.
Was there ever a time when government intervention isn't driving every market sentiment change?
Not since I've followed it (although that was the problem in the great depression I believe, no liquidity being provided). My point is it is much more proactive these days, it used to be far more reactive, which is what is making guys like Druckenmiller retire, and Soros and Tudor Jones negative.
Re: S&P Analysis
This snippet from the Bill Holter was so interesting I had to come back and share it as part of skc discussion re 'Greece priced in'...
I have bolded the sentences I thought were interesting/relevant. The rest of the article is mainly about gold.
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs003/1101357242253/archive/1109470730287.html
It's a pretty blunt perspective but I think quite a valid one. Either CDS writers or CDS buyers are gonna take a loss, it's gonna have big consequences right?
This snippet from the Bill Holter was so interesting I had to come back and share it as part of skc discussion re 'Greece priced in'...
I have bolded the sentences I thought were interesting/relevant. The rest of the article is mainly about gold.
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs003/1101357242253/archive/1109470730287.html
It's a pretty blunt perspective but I think quite a valid one. Either CDS writers or CDS buyers are gonna take a loss, it's gonna have big consequences right?
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Re: S&P Analysis
Not sure. The way I see it (keeping in mind the Greek 1Y was trading ~150% 12 months ago now it's trading ~1000%):
Scenario 1 Default triggered, CDS writers take a loss. CDS writers are UK, US, EU fins.
Scenario 2: Default not triggered, bondholders take a loss. Bondholders are UK, EU core fins, to which the US fins are exposed.
Are the fin indices really pricing this loss in?
Not sure. The way I see it (keeping in mind the Greek 1Y was trading ~150% 12 months ago now it's trading ~1000%):
Scenario 1 Default triggered, CDS writers take a loss. CDS writers are UK, US, EU fins.
Scenario 2: Default not triggered, bondholders take a loss. Bondholders are UK, EU core fins, to which the US fins are exposed.
Are the fin indices really pricing this loss in?
skc
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Re: S&P Analysis
The EU financials were all trading below book value anyway so it wasn't like the market hasn't written them down already.
There is going to be a large impact on the other sovereign CDS market you would think with all the Greece CDS buyers getting a royal shaft...
The EU financials were all trading below book value anyway so it wasn't like the market hasn't written them down already.
There is going to be a large impact on the other sovereign CDS market you would think with all the Greece CDS buyers getting a royal shaft...
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Re: S&P Analysis
LOL ...... This thread is reminding me of the "good old days" on ASF .... so much quality info being divulged by the "boyz that know stuff" .... Keep it up lads
LOL ...... This thread is reminding me of the "good old days" on ASF .... so much quality info being divulged by the "boyz that know stuff" .... Keep it up lads
Trembling Hand
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Re: S&P Analysis
Mostly down starts to the week are bullish, especially in Bull runs. BUT sometimes when they get carry through they end up being very nasty. On top of that the three days up after falls early last week is a nice short setup. Not sure If I have been reading too much but there's not much to be bullish on out there. Dax start will be telling IMO.
Mostly down starts to the week are bullish, especially in Bull runs. BUT sometimes when they get carry through they end up being very nasty. On top of that the three days up after falls early last week is a nice short setup. Not sure If I have been reading too much but there's not much to be bullish on out there. Dax start will be telling IMO.
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